A novel geo-hierarchical population mobility model for spatial spreading of resurgent epidemics.

Computational models for large, resurgent epidemics are recognized as a crucial tool for predicting the spread of infectious diseases. It is widely agreed, that such models can be augmented with realistic multiscale population models and by incorporating human mobility patterns. Nevertheless, a large proportion of recent studies, aimed at better understanding global epidemics, like influenza, measles, H1N1, SARS, and COVID-19, underestimate the role of heterogeneous mixing in populations, characterized by strong social structures and geography. Motivated by the reduced tractability of studies employing homogeneous mixing, which make conclusions hard to deduce, we propose a new, very fine-grained model incorporating the spatial distribution of population into geographical settlements, with a hierarchical organization down to the level of households (inside which we assume homogeneous mixing). In addition, population is organized heterogeneously outside households, and we model the movement of individuals using travel distance and frequency parameters for inter- and intra-settlement movement. Discrete event simulation, employing an adapted SIR model with relapse, reproduces important qualitative characteristics of real epidemics, like high variation in size and temporal heterogeneity (e.g., waves), that are challenging to reproduce and to quantify with existing measures. Our results pinpoint an important aspect, that epidemic size is more sensitive to the increase in distance of travel, rather that the frequency of travel. Finally, we discuss implications for the control of epidemics by integrating human mobility restrictions, as well as progressive vaccination of individuals.

Data-driven model reference control of MIMO vertical tank systems with model-free VRFT and Q-Learning.

This paper proposes a combined Virtual Reference Feedback Tuning-Q-learning model-free control approach, which tunes nonlinear static state feedback controllers to achieve output model reference tracking in an optimal control framework. The novel iterative Batch Fitted Q-learning strategy uses two neural networks to represent the value function (critic) and the controller (actor), and it is referred to as a mixed Virtual Reference Feedback Tuning-Batch Fitted Q-learning approach. Learning convergence of the Q-learning schemes generally depends, among other settings, on the efficient exploration of the state-action space. Handcrafting test signals for efficient exploration is difficult even for input-output stable unknown processes. Virtual Reference Feedback Tuning can ensure an initial stabilizing controller to be learned from few input-output data and it can be next used to collect substantially more input-state data in a controlled mode, in a constrained environment, by compensating the process dynamics. This data is used to learn significantly superior nonlinear state feedback neural networks controllers for model reference tracking, using the proposed Batch Fitted Q-learning iterative tuning strategy, motivating the original combination of the two techniques. The mixed Virtual Reference Feedback Tuning-Batch Fitted Q-learning approach is experimentally validated for water level control of a multi input-multi output nonlinear constrained coupled two-tank system. Discussions on the observed control behavior are offered.

Model-Free Primitive-Based Iterative Learning Control Approach to Trajectory Tracking of MIMO Systems With Experimental Validation.

This paper proposes a novel model-free trajectory tracking of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems by the combination of iterative learning control (ILC) and primitives. The optimal trajectory tracking solution is obtained in terms of previously learned solutions to simple tasks called primitives. The library of primitives that are stored in memory consists of pairs of reference input/controlled output signals. The reference input primitives are optimized in a model-free ILC framework without using knowledge of the controlled process. The guaranteed convergence of the learning scheme is built upon a model-free virtual reference feedback tuning design of the feedback decoupling controller. Each new complex trajectory to be tracked is decomposed into the output primitives regarded as basis functions. The optimal reference input for the control system to track the desired trajectory is next recomposed from the reference input primitives. This is advantageous because the optimal reference input is computed straightforward without the need to learn from repeated executions of the tracking task. In addition, the optimization problem specific to trajectory tracking of square MIMO systems is decomposed in a set of optimization problems assigned to each separate single-input single-output control channel that ensures a convenient model-free decoupling. The new model-free primitive-based ILC approach is capable of planning, reasoning, and learning. A case study dealing with the model-free control tuning for a nonlinear aerodynamic system is included to validate the new approach. The experimental results are given.

Adaptive GSA-based optimal tuning of PI controlled servo systems with reduced process parametric sensitivity, robust stability and controller robustness.

This paper suggests a new generation of optimal PI controllers for a class of servo systems characterized by saturation and dead zone static nonlinearities and second-order models with an integral component. The objective functions are expressed as the integral of time multiplied by absolute error plus the weighted sum of the integrals of output sensitivity functions of the state sensitivity models with respect to two process parametric variations. The PI controller tuning conditions applied to a simplified linear process model involve a single design parameter specific to the extended symmetrical optimum (ESO) method which offers the desired tradeoff to several control system performance indices. An original back-calculation and tracking anti-windup scheme is proposed in order to prevent the integrator wind-up and to compensate for the dead zone nonlinearity of the process. The minimization of the objective functions is carried out in the framework of optimization problems with inequality constraints which guarantee the robust stability with respect to the process parametric variations and the controller robustness. An adaptive gravitational search algorithm (GSA) solves the optimization problems focused on the optimal tuning of the design parameter specific to the ESO method and of the anti-windup tracking gain. A tuning method for PI controllers is proposed as an efficient approach to the design of resilient control systems. The tuning method and the PI controllers are experimentally validated by the adaptive GSA-based tuning of PI controllers for the angular position control of a laboratory servo system.

Application of IFT and SPSA to servo system control.

This paper treats the application of two data-based model-free gradient-based stochastic optimization techniques, i.e., iterative feedback tuning (IFT) and simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA), to servo system control. The representative case of controlled processes modeled by second-order systems with an integral component is discussed. New IFT and SPSA algorithms are suggested to tune the parameters of the state feedback controllers with an integrator in the linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) problem formulation. An implementation case study concerning the LQG-based design of an angular position controller for a direct current servo system laboratory equipment is included to highlight the pros and cons of IFT and SPSA from an application's point of view. The comparison of IFT and SPSA algorithms is focused on an insight into their implementation.