Age and the Residual Risk of Cardiovascular Disease following Low Density Lipoprotein-Cholesterol Exposure.

We believe that there is sufficient evidence from basic science, longitudinal cohort studies and randomised controlled trials which validates the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) or lipid hypothesis. It is important that we can communicate details of the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction that the average patient could expect depending on the scale of LDL-C decrease following lipid lowering therapy. It is also essential that residual risk (ResR) of CVD be highlighted. To achieve this aim by using existing trial evidence, we developed mathematical models initially for relative risk reduction (RRR) and absolute risk (AR) reduction and then showed that despite optimising LDL-C levels, a considerable degree of ResR remains that is dependent on AR. Age is significantly associated with AR (odds ratio: 1.02, 95% confidence intervals: 1.01-1.04) as was previously demonstrated by analysing the Whickham study cohort using a logistic regression model (age remaining significant even when all the other significant risk factors such as sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diabetes and family history were included in the regression model). A discussion of a paper by Ference et al. provided detailed evidence of the relationship between age and AR, based on lifetime LDL-C exposure. Finally, we discussed non-traditional CVD risk factors that may contribute to ResR based on randomised controlled trials investigating drugs improving inflammation, thrombosis, metabolic and endothelial status.

Key causes and long-term trends related to emergency department and inpatient hospital admissions of homeless persons in England.

BACKGROUND: It is estimated that approximately 300,000 people are experiencing homelessness in England. The aim of this study was to evaluate key causes and long-term trends of emergency departments (EDs) and in hospital inpatient admissions of persons experiencing homelessness in England. METHODS: ED and hospital inpatient admissions data were obtained from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) covering all National Health Service (NHS) England hospitals. Anyone identified or declared to be experiencing homelessness during the service usage are recorded in HES datasets. Data were extracted for the 10-year study period and compared to the general population, which includes all patients attending the ED or admitted to inpatient care in England. RESULTS: Drug- and alcohol-related causes contribute to the most frequent reasons for attendance and admissions of persons experiencing homelessness in the ED and inpatient respectively. A total of 30,406 ED attendances were recorded for persons experiencing homelessness in the year 2018/2019 (+ 44.9% rise vs 2009/10) of which injuries and poisoning respectively represented 21.8% and 17.9% of all persons experiencing homelessness presentations to the ED. Poisoning (including drug overdose) represented only 1.9% of all attendances by the general population during the same study year (rate ratio vs general populations 9.2 95% CI 9.0-9.4). High mortality rates were observed in relation to presentations attributed to drug- and alcohol-related causes. A total of 14,858 persons experiencing homelessness inpatient admissions were recorded in 2018/2019 (+ 68.6% vs 2009/2010). Psychoactive substance use constituted 12.7% of all admissions in 2018/2019 compared to 0.4% of in the general populations (rate ratio: 33.3, 95% CI: 31.9-34.7). There was a 44.3% rise in the number of admissions related to poisoning in the study period amongst persons experiencing homelessness in England (vs 14.2% in general population). CONCLUSION: Marked disparities around primary causes of ED and inpatient admissions were identified between persons experiencing homelessness and the general population. There is a continued need for prevention measures to reduce the prevalence of drug and alcohol, injury and poisoning-related admissions to the ED, enhanced service provision at the community level, and multisector collaborations. These initiatives should maximise opportunities for early interventions and improve outcomes for persons experiencing homelessness, including increased accessibility of healthcare and mental health services, particularly in areas that demonstrate increasing ED and inpatient attendance rates over time.

A comprehensive analysis of chromosomal polymorphic variants on reproductive outcomes after intracytoplasmic sperm injection treatment.

Recent studies suggest that chromosomal polymorphic variations are associated with infertility. A systematic review of chromosomal polymorphisms in assisted reproduction found an association with higher rates of miscarriage. Aim of this study is to analyse the influence of specific types or number of chromosomal polymorphic variations on reproductive outcomes of couples undergoing ICSI treatment. We analysed data from 929 fresh and frozen embryo transfer cycles of 692 women who underwent karyotyping analysis using Giemsa-Trypsin-Leishman (GTL) banding prior to the ICSI procedure at the Fertility Centre of Lanka Hospitals Corporation Plc, Sri Lanka, from January 2016 to December 2018. The outcomes of interest were the pregnancy, miscarriage and live birth rate per cycle. There was no evidence of a difference in the reproductive outcomes between carriers or non-carriers of any type or number of chromosomal polymorphic variation. Our data, in contrast to previous studies, does not support a deleterious effect for the type or number of chromosomal polymorphic variations on reproductive outcomes. However, additional prospective, adequately powered studies, conducted in multiethnic populations, are required to further investigate whether the detection of chromosomal polymorphic variants prior to assisted conception may in fact be a futile diagnostic tool.

Effect of Exercise on Motor Symptoms in Patients With Parkinson's Disease: A Network Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although the pharmacological approach may help with motor symptoms in Parkinson's disease (PD), they are clearly not the complete solution. Thus, for the treatment of PD motor symptoms, physical activity has been proposed as an effective intervention. METHODS: A systematic search in MEDLINE, Web of Science, Scopus, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases was conducted to identify randomized controlled trials testing the effectiveness of exercise interventions on motor symptoms of PD. Physical exercise interventions were divided into 9 categories: endurance, resistance, combined, balance, dance, alternative exercises, body weight supported, sensorimotor interventions including endurance exercise, and sensorimotor interventions not including endurance exercise. A pairwise meta-analysis for direct and indirect comparisons between intervention and control/nonintervention groups was carried out. RESULTS: Fifty-six studies met the inclusion criteria, including 2740 participants, aged between 57.6 and 77.7 years. Results showed that sensorimotor training including endurance (effect size [ES]-1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.68 to -0.50), resistance (ES-0.82; 95% CI, -1.23 to -0.41), and dance (ES-0.64; 95% CI, -1.24 to -0.05) were the most effective physical activity interventions for mitigating PD motor symptoms. CONCLUSION: Physical activity interventions are an effective strategy for the management of motor symptoms in patients with PD. Among the different exercise intervention programs, those including more complex and demanding activities (sensorimotor training including endurance, resistance, and dance) seem to be the most effective physical activity interventions.

The effect of frozen embryo transfer regimen on the association between serum progesterone and live birth: a multicentre prospective cohort study (ProFET).

STUDY QUESTION: What is the association between serum progesterone levels on the day of frozen embryo transfer (FET) and the probability of live birth in women undergoing different FET regimens? SUMMARY ANSWER: Overall, serum progesterone levels <7.8 ng/ml were associated with reduced odds of live birth, although the association between serum progesterone levels and the probability of live birth appeared to vary according to the route of progesterone administration. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Progesterone is essential for pregnancy success. A recent systematic review showed that in FET cycles using vaginal progesterone for endometrial preparation, lower serum progesterone levels (<10 ng/ml) were associated with a reduction in live birth rates and higher chance of miscarriage. However, there was uncertainty about the association between serum progesterone levels and treatment outcomes in natural cycle FET (NC-FET) and HRT-FET using non-vaginal routes of progesterone administration. STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION: This was a multicentre (n = 8) prospective cohort study conducted in the UK between January 2020 and February 2021. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS: We included women having NC-FET or HRT-FET treatment with progesterone administration by any available route. Women underwent venepuncture on the day of embryo transfer. Participants and clinical personnel were blinded to the serum progesterone levels. We conducted unadjusted and multivariable logistic regression analyses to investigate the association between serum progesterone levels on the day of FET and treatment outcomes according to the type of cycle and route of exogenous progesterone administration. Our primary outcome was the live birth rate per participant. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: We studied a total of 402 women. The mean (SD) serum progesterone level was 14.9 (7.5) ng/ml. Overall, the mean adjusted probability of live birth increased non-linearly from 37.6% (95% CI 26.3-48.9%) to 45.5% (95% CI 32.1-58.9%) as serum progesterone rose between the 10th (7.8 ng/ml) and 90th (24.0 ng/ml) centiles. In comparison to participants whose serum progesterone level was ≥7.8 ng/ml, those with lower progesterone (<7.8 ng/ml, 10th centile) experienced fewer live births (28.2% versus 40.0%, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.41, 95% CI 0.18-0.91, P = 0.028), lower odds of clinical pregnancy (30.8% versus 45.1%, aOR 0.36, 95% CI 0.16-0.79, P = 0.011) and a trend towards increased odds of miscarriage (42.1% versus 28.7%, aOR 2.58, 95% CI 0.88-7.62, P = 0.086). In women receiving vaginal progesterone, the mean adjusted probability of live birth increased as serum progesterone levels rose, whereas women having exclusively subcutaneous progesterone experienced a reduction in the mean probability of live birth as progesterone levels rose beyond 16.3 ng/ml. The combination of vaginal and subcutaneous routes appeared to exert little impact upon the mean probability of live birth in relation to serum progesterone levels. LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION: The final sample size was smaller than originally planned, although our study was adequately powered to confidently identify a difference in live birth between optimal and inadequate progesterone levels. Furthermore, our cohort did not include women receiving oral or rectal progestogens. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our results corroborate existing evidence suggesting that lower serum progesterone levels hinder FET success. However, the relationship between serum progesterone and the probability of live birth appears to be non-linear in women receiving exclusively subcutaneous progesterone, suggesting that in this subgroup of women, high serum progesterone may also be detrimental to treatment success. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: This work was supported by CARE Fertility and a doctoral research fellowship (awarded to P.M.) by the Tommy's Charity and the University of Birmingham. M.J.P. is supported by the NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre. S.F. is a minor shareholder of CARE Fertility but has no financial or other interest with progesterone testing or manufacturing companies. P.L. reports personal fees from Pharmasure, outside the submitted work. G.P. reports personal fees from Besins Healthcare, outside the submitted work. M.W. reports personal fees from Ferring Pharmaceuticals, outside the submitted work. The remaining authors have no conflict of interest to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04170517.

Association of maternal lipid levels with birth weight and cord blood insulin: a Bayesian network analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the independent association of maternal lipid levels with birth weight and cord blood insulin (CBI) level. SETTING: The Born in Guangzhou Cohort Study, Guangzhou, China. PARTICIPANTS: Women who delivered between January 2015 and June 2016 and with umbilical cord blood retained were eligible for this study. Those with prepregnancy health conditions, without an available fasting blood sample in the second trimester, or without demographic and glycaemic information were excluded. After random selection, data from 1522 mother-child pairs were used in this study. EXPOSURES AND OUTCOME MEASURES: Additive Bayesian network analysis was used to investigate the interdependency of lipid profiles with other metabolic risk factors (prepregnancy body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose and early gestational weight gain) in association with birth weight and CBI, along with multivariable linear regression models. RESULTS: In multivariable linear regressions, maternal triglyceride was associated with increased birth weight (adjusted ß=67.46, 95% CI 41.85 to 93.06 g per mmol/L) and CBI (adjusted ß=0.89, 95% CI 0.06 to 1.72 µU/mL per mmol/L increase), while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with decreased birth weight (adjusted ß=-45.29, 95% CI -85.49 to -5.09 g per mmol/L). After considering the interdependency of maternal metabolic risk factors in the Network analysis, none of the maternal lipid profiles was independently associated with birth weight and CBI. Instead, prepregnancy BMI was the global strongest factor for birth weight and CBI directly and indirectly. CONCLUSIONS: Gestational dyslipidaemia appears to be secondary to metabolic dysfunction with no clear association with metabolic adverse outcomes in neonates. Maternal prepregnancy overweight/obesity appears the most influential upstream metabolic risk factor for both maternal and neonatal metabolic health; these data imply weight management may need to be addressed from the preconception period and during early pregnancy.

Peer support for carers and patients with inflammatory bowel disease: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The support provided by people with the same condition, including inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), has the potential to improve a range of psychosocial outcomes by allowing people with the disease to receive emotional support as well as to learn coping strategies from more experienced peers. The aim of this systematic review was to summarise the evidence on peer support interventions and their effectiveness on people with IBD. METHODS: Bibliographic databases, conference proceedings, grey literature, and clinical trial registers were searched from inception to November 2021. Comparative and single-arm studies that evaluated interventions that were solely or contained in part peer support, for people with IBD and/or their carers of any age and in any setting were included. Effectiveness was evaluated using outcomes relating to physical and psychosocial function, disease control and healthcare utilisation. Data for each outcome were tabulated and presented in a narrative synthesis. Study design specific tools were used to assess risk of bias. Study selection and risk of bias assessment were undertaken by two reviewers independently. RESULTS: Fourteen completed studies and five ongoing studies met the inclusion criteria. Substantial heterogeneity was observed in the studies in relation to the intervention type and peer support was usually part of a wider intervention. All but one study analysed the total effect of the intervention, so it was not possible to fully isolate the effect of the peer support alone. The appropriateness of outcomes and outcome measurement tools for the assessment of effects was a further key issue. As such, overall, no significant evidence of beneficial effects of peer support interventions on quality of life and other psychosocial outcomes was found. CONCLUSIONS: New randomised controlled trials designed to isolate the effects of peer support are needed to evaluate the (net) effects of peer support only. Agreement on the outcomes to be targeted, and the choice of reliable and validated measurement tools for standalone peer support interventions would provide a focus for further intervention design and evaluation. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: The protocol was accepted in the international prospective register of systematic reviews (PROSPERO CRD42020168817).

Chromosomal polymorphisms in assisted reproduction: an analysis of 942 cycles.

The use of intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) has recently increased worldwide. The live birth rate per ICSI cycle is low, and over half of infertile couples remain childless. Chromosomal polymorphisms are up to five times more common in couples with infertility compared to the general population. We aimed to investigate the association between chromosomal polymorphisms and reproductive outcomes in couples undergoing ICSI treatment. We analysed 942 ICSI fresh and frozen embryo transfer cycles in 697 women who underwent karyotyping analysis using Giemsa-Trypsin-Leishman banding prior to assisted conception at the Fertility Centre of Lanka Hospitals, Sri Lanka, between 2016 and 2018. The primary outcomes were pregnancy, miscarriage, and live birth rates. We compared outcomes according to the presence or absence of chromosomal polymorphism in females, males and couples. There were 294 pregnancies (31.2%) recorded in the study; 130 suffered a miscarriage (13.8%), 13 were ectopic pregnancies (1.3%) and 151 resulted in a live birth (16.0%). The evidence from univariable and multivariable analyses (adjusted for age, BMI, ovarian reserve and treatment type) did not confidently identify a difference in pregnancy, miscarriage or live birth rates between couples with no chromosomal polymorphisms compared to couples where the female, male or both partners were carriers of a chromosomal polymorphism. Further, we did not identify a clear association between the presence of chromosomal polymorphisms and reproductive outcomes compared to participants without chromosomal polymorphisms. Wide CIs precluded the identification of clinically meaningful associations. Lay summary: Infertility affects approximately one in eight couples worldwide. The use of intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI), where the sperm is directly injected into an egg using a micromanipulator outside the body, has become particularly popular in recent years. However, the success rate remains low. In human cells, the genetic material is arranged in structures called chromosomes. Chromosomal polymorphism is a normal variation where the genetic material is arranged differently to the average individual and is more common in infertile couples compared to the general population. We analysed data from 942 ICSI cycles in 697 couples who underwent karyotyping analysis to assess the changes in chromosomes between 2016 and 2018. The pregnancy rate was 31.2%, with 16.0% of participants experiencing a live birth, while 13.8% of pregnancies resulted in a miscarriage and 1.3% were outside the womb cavity (ectopic). The evidence did not identify a clear association between the chromosomal polymorphism and the outcome of treatment.

Tocolytics for delaying preterm birth: a network meta-analysis (0924).

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is the leading cause of death in newborns and children. Tocolytic drugs aim to delay preterm birth by suppressing uterine contractions to allow time for administration of corticosteroids for fetal lung maturation, magnesium sulphate for neuroprotection, and transport to a facility with appropriate neonatal care facilities. However, there is still uncertainty about their effectiveness and safety. OBJECTIVES: To estimate relative effectiveness and safety profiles for different classes of tocolytic drugs for delaying preterm birth, and provide rankings of the available drugs. SEARCH METHODS: We searched Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth's Trials Register, ClinicalTrials.gov (21 April 2021) and reference lists of retrieved studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all randomised controlled trials assessing effectiveness or adverse effects of tocolytic drugs for delaying preterm birth. We excluded quasi- and non-randomised trials. We evaluated all studies against predefined criteria to judge their trustworthiness. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: At least two review authors independently assessed the trials for inclusion and risk of bias, and extracted data. We performed pairwise and network meta-analyses, to determine the relative effects and rankings of all available tocolytics. We used GRADE to rate the certainty of the network meta-analysis effect estimates for each tocolytic versus placebo or no treatment. MAIN RESULTS: This network meta-analysis includes 122 trials (13,697 women) involving six tocolytic classes, combinations of tocolytics, and placebo or no treatment. Most trials included women with threatened preterm birth, singleton pregnancy, from 24 to 34 weeks of gestation. We judged 25 (20%) studies to be at low risk of bias. Overall, certainty in the evidence varied. Relative effects from network meta-analysis suggested that all tocolytics are probably effective in delaying preterm birth compared with placebo or no tocolytic treatment. Betamimetics are possibly effective in delaying preterm birth by 48 hours (risk ratio (RR) 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05 to 1.20; low-certainty evidence), and 7 days (RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.25; low-certainty evidence). COX inhibitors are possibly effective in delaying preterm birth by 48 hours (RR 1.11, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.23; low-certainty evidence). Calcium channel blockers are possibly effective in delaying preterm birth by 48 hours (RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.24; low-certainty evidence), probably effective in delaying preterm birth by 7 days (RR 1.15, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.27; moderate-certainty evidence), and prolong pregnancy by 5 days (0.1 more to 9.2 more; high-certainty evidence). Magnesium sulphate is probably effective in delaying preterm birth by 48 hours (RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.23; moderate-certainty evidence). Oxytocin receptor antagonists are probably effective in delaying preterm birth by 48 hours (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.22; moderate-certainty evidence), are effective in delaying preterm birth by 7 days (RR 1.18, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.30; high-certainty evidence), and possibly prolong pregnancy by 10 days (95% CI 2.3 more to 16.7 more). Nitric oxide donors are probably effective in delaying preterm birth by 48 hours (RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.31; moderate-certainty evidence), and 7 days (RR 1.18, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.37; moderate-certainty evidence). Combinations of tocolytics are probably effective in delaying preterm birth by 48 hours (RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.27; moderate-certainty evidence), and 7 days (RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.34; moderate-certainty evidence). Nitric oxide donors ranked highest for delaying preterm birth by 48 hours and 7 days, and delay in birth (continuous outcome), followed by calcium channel blockers, oxytocin receptor antagonists and combinations of tocolytics. Betamimetics (RR 14.4, 95% CI 6.11 to 34.1; moderate-certainty evidence), calcium channel blockers (RR 2.96, 95% CI 1.23 to 7.11; moderate-certainty evidence), magnesium sulphate (RR 3.90, 95% CI 1.09 to 13.93; moderate-certainty evidence) and combinations of tocolytics (RR 6.87, 95% CI 2.08 to 22.7; low-certainty evidence) are probably more likely to result in cessation of treatment. Calcium channel blockers possibly reduce the risk of neurodevelopmental morbidity (RR 0.51, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.85; low-certainty evidence), and respiratory morbidity (RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.88; low-certainty evidence), and result in fewer neonates with birthweight less than 2000 g (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.87; low-certainty evidence). Nitric oxide donors possibly result in neonates with higher birthweight (mean difference (MD) 425.53 g more, 95% CI 224.32 more to 626.74 more; low-certainty evidence), fewer neonates with birthweight less than 2500 g (RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.69; low-certainty evidence), and more advanced gestational age (MD 1.35 weeks more, 95% CI 0.37 more to 2.32 more; low-certainty evidence). Combinations of tocolytics possibly result in fewer neonates with birthweight less than 2500 g (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.93; low-certainty evidence). In terms of maternal adverse effects, betamimetics probably cause dyspnoea (RR 12.09, 95% CI 4.66 to 31.39; moderate-certainty evidence), palpitations (RR 7.39, 95% CI 3.83 to 14.24; moderate-certainty evidence), vomiting (RR 1.91, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.91; moderate-certainty evidence), possibly headache (RR 1.91, 95% CI 1.07 to 3.42; low-certainty evidence) and tachycardia (RR 3.01, 95% CI 1.17 to 7.71; low-certainty evidence) compared with placebo or no treatment. COX inhibitors possibly cause vomiting (RR 2.54, 95% CI 1.18 to 5.48; low-certainty evidence). Calcium channel blockers (RR 2.59, 95% CI 1.39 to 4.83; low-certainty evidence), and nitric oxide donors probably cause headache (RR 4.20, 95% CI 2.13 to 8.25; moderate-certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Compared with placebo or no tocolytic treatment, all tocolytic drug classes that we assessed (betamimetics, calcium channel blockers, magnesium sulphate, oxytocin receptor antagonists, nitric oxide donors) and their combinations were probably or possibly effective in delaying preterm birth for 48 hours, and 7 days. Tocolytic drugs were associated with a range of adverse effects (from minor to potentially severe) compared with placebo or no tocolytic treatment, although betamimetics and combination tocolytics were more likely to result in cessation of treatment. The effects of tocolytic use on neonatal outcomes such as neonatal and perinatal mortality, and on safety outcomes such as maternal and neonatal infection were uncertain.

Symptoms and risk factors for long COVID in non-hospitalized adults.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is associated with a range of persistent symptoms impacting everyday functioning, known as post-COVID-19 condition or long COVID. We undertook a retrospective matched cohort study using a UK-based primary care database, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum, to determine symptoms that are associated with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection beyond 12 weeks in non-hospitalized adults and the risk factors associated with developing persistent symptoms. We selected 486,149 adults with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and 1,944,580 propensity score-matched adults with no recorded evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Outcomes included 115 individual symptoms, as well as long COVID, defined as a composite outcome of 33 symptoms by the World Health Organization clinical case definition. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for the outcomes. A total of 62 symptoms were significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection after 12 weeks. The largest aHRs were for anosmia (aHR 6.49, 95% CI 5.02-8.39), hair loss (3.99, 3.63-4.39), sneezing (2.77, 1.40-5.50), ejaculation difficulty (2.63, 1.61-4.28) and reduced libido (2.36, 1.61-3.47). Among the cohort of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, risk factors for long COVID included female sex, belonging to an ethnic minority, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, obesity and a wide range of comorbidities. The risk of developing long COVID was also found to be increased along a gradient of decreasing age. SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with a plethora of symptoms that are associated with a range of sociodemographic and clinical risk factors.

Homelessness and the use of Emergency Department as a source of healthcare: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Persons experiencing homelessness (PEH) often use hospital Emergency Department (ED) as the only source of healthcare. The aim of this study was to undertake a systematic review to identify the prevalence, clinical reasons and outcomes in relation to ED visits by PEH. METHODS: A protocol-led (CRD42020189263) systematic review was conducted using search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and Google Scholar databases. Studies that reported either the prevalence of homelessness in the ED or clinical reasons for presentation to ED by PEH and published in English language were included. Definitions of homelessness used by study authors were accepted. RESULTS: From the screening of 1349 unique titles, a total of 36 studies were included. Wide variations in the prevalence and key cause of presentations were identified across the studies often linked to differences in country, study setting, disease classification and data collection methods. The proportion of ED visits contributed by PEH ranged from 0.41 to 19.6%. PEH made an average of 0.72 visits to 5.8 visits per person per year in the ED [rate ratio compared to non-homeless 1.63 to 18.75]. Up to a third and quarter of the visits were contributed by alcohol-related diagnoses and substance poisoning respectively. The percentage of PEH who died in the ED ranged from 0.1 to 0.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Drug-, alcohol- and injury-related presentations dominate the ED visits by PEH. Wide variations in the data were observed in regard to attendance and treatment outcomes. There is a need for prevention actions in the community, integrated discharge and referral pathways between health, housing and social care to minimise frequent usage and improve attendance outcomes.

Impact of PD1 and PDL1 immunotherapy on non-small cell lung cancer outcomes: a systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Despite comprising many cancer diagnoses, few treatments are suitable for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC). Trials suggest blockade of programmed death 1 (PD1) or its ligand (PDL1) may be effective for these patients. However, this therapy's impact on outcomes other than survival, and outcomes of patients not in trials, remains largely unknown. Therefore, we compared the effectiveness of PD1 and PDL1 immunotherapy to chemotherapy and placebo across multiple clinical outcomes. METHODS: Six databases were searched on 12-13 October 2019 for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies investigating nivolumab, pembrolizumab, atezolizumab or durvalumab. Study selection was performed independently by two reviewers. Data for overall survival, progression-free survival, adverse effects (AEs) and quality of life (QoL) were descriptively and meta-analysed. Factors impacting treatment outcomes, including PDL1 expression, were explored. The similarity between RCT and observational data was assessed. RESULTS: From 5423 search results, 139 full texts and abstracts were included. Immunotherapy was associated with a lower risk of death than both comparators. In RCTs, the incidence of treatment-related AEs was approximately 20% lower among patients using immunotherapy compared with chemotherapy. However, no other consistent benefits were observed. Progression-free survival results were inconsistent. Improvements to QoL varied according to the instrument used; however, QoL was not recorded widely. Survival results were similar between study designs; however, AEs incidence was lower in observational studies. DISCUSSION: Among patients with aNSCLC, immunotherapy improved overall survival and incidence of treatment-related AEs compared with chemotherapy. Benefits to progression-free survival and QoL were less consistent. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019153345.

Machine learning of COVID-19 clinical data identifies population structures with therapeutic potential.

Clinical outcomes for patients with COVID-19 are heterogeneous and there is interest in defining subgroups for prognostic modeling and development of treatment algorithms. We obtained 28 demographic and laboratory variables in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. These comprised a training cohort (n = 6099) and two validation cohorts during the first and second waves of the pandemic (n = 996; n = 1011). Uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP) dimension reduction and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) analysis was used to define patient clusters. 29 clusters were defined in the training cohort and associated with markedly different mortality rates, which were predictive within confirmation datasets. Deconvolution of clinical features within clusters identified unexpected relationships between variables. Integration of large datasets using UMAP-assisted clustering can therefore identify patient subgroups with prognostic information and uncovers unexpected interactions between clinical variables. This application of machine learning represents a powerful approach for delineating disease pathogenesis and potential therapeutic interventions.

Cooking outdoors or with cleaner fuels does not increase malarial risk in children under 5 years: a cross-sectional study of 17 sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: Smoke from solid biomass cooking is often stated to reduce household mosquito levels and, therefore, malarial transmission. However, household air pollution (HAP) from solid biomass cooking is estimated to be responsible for 1.67 times more deaths in children aged under 5 years compared to malaria globally. This cross-sectional study investigates the association between malaria and (i) cleaner fuel usage; (ii) wood compared to charcoal fuel; and, (iii) household cooking location, among children aged under 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). METHODS: Population-based data was obtained from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 85,263 children within 17 malaria-endemic sub-Saharan countries who were who were tested for malaria with a malarial rapid diagnostic test (RDT) or microscopy. To assess the independent association between malarial diagnosis (positive, negative), fuel type and cooking location (outdoor, indoor, attached to house), multivariable logistic regression was used, controlling for individual, household and contextual confounding factors. RESULTS: Household use of solid biomass fuels and kerosene cooking fuels was associated with a 57% increase in the odds ratio of malarial infection after adjusting for confounding factors (RDT adjusted odds ratio (AOR):1.57 [1.30-1.91]; Microscopy AOR: 1.58 [1.23-2.04]) compared to cooking with cleaner fuels. A similar effect was observed when comparing wood to charcoal among solid biomass fuel users (RDT AOR: 1.77 [1.54-2.04]; Microscopy AOR: 1.21 [1.08-1.37]). Cooking in a separate building was associated with a 26% reduction in the odds of malarial infection (RDT AOR: 0.74 [0.66-0.83]; Microscopy AOR: 0.75 [0.67-0.84]) compared to indoor cooking; however no association was observed with outdoor cooking. Similar effects were observed within a sub-analysis of malarial mesoendemic areas only. CONCLUSION: Cleaner fuels and outdoor cooking practices associated with reduced smoke exposure were not observed to have an adverse effect upon malarial infection among children under 5 years in SSA. Further mixed-methods research will be required to further strengthen the evidence base concerning this risk paradigm and to support appropriate public health messaging in this context.

Temporal trends in associations between severe mental illness and risk of cardiovascular disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Severe mental illness (SMI; schizophrenia, bipolar disorders (BDs), and other nonorganic psychoses) is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CVD-related mortality. To date, no systematic review has investigated changes in population level CVD-related mortality over calendar time. It is unclear if this relationship has changed over time in higher-income countries with changing treatments. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To address this gap, a systematic review was conducted, to assess the association between SMI and CVD including temporal change. Seven databases were searched (last: November 30, 2021) for cohort or case-control studies lasting ≥1 year, comparing frequency of CVD mortality or incidence in high-income countries between people with versus without SMI. No language restrictions were applied. Random effects meta-analyses were conducted to compute pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and rate ratios, pooled standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), pooled odds ratios (ORs), and pooled risk ratios (RRs) of CVD in those with versus without SMI. Temporal trends were explored by decade. Subgroup analyses by age, sex, setting, world region, and study quality (Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS) score) were conducted. The narrative synthesis included 108 studies, and the quantitative synthesis 59 mortality studies (with (≥1,841,356 cases and 29,321,409 controls) and 28 incidence studies (≥401,909 cases and 14,372,146 controls). The risk of CVD-related mortality for people with SMI was higher than controls across most comparisons, except for total CVD-related mortality for BD and cerebrovascular accident (CVA) for mixed SMI. Estimated risks were larger for schizophrenia than BD. Pooled results ranged from SMR = 1.55 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.33 to 1.81, p < 0.001), for CVA in people with BD to HR/rate ratio = 2.40 (95% CI: 2.25 to 2.55, p < 0.001) for CVA in schizophrenia. For schizophrenia and BD, SMRs and pooled HRs/rate ratios for CHD and CVD mortality were larger in studies with outcomes occurring during the 1990s and 2000s than earlier decades (1980s: SMR = 1.14, 95% CI: 0.57 to 2.30, p = 0.71; 2000s: SMR = 2.59, 95% CI: 1.93 to 3.47, p < 0.001 for schizophrenia and CHD) and in studies including people with younger age. The incidence of CVA, CVD events, and heart failure in SMI was higher than controls. Estimated risks for schizophrenia ranged from HR/rate ratio 1.25 (95% CI: 1.04 to 1.51, p = 0.016) for total CVD events to rate ratio 3.82 (95% CI: 3.1 to 4.71, p < 0.001) for heart failure. Incidence of CHD was higher in BD versus controls. However, for schizophrenia, CHD was elevated in higher-quality studies only. The HR/rate ratios for CVA and CHD were larger in studies with outcomes occurring after the 1990s. Study limitations include the high risk of bias of some studies as they drew a comparison cohort from general population rates and the fact that it was difficult to exclude studies that had overlapping populations, although attempts were made to minimise this. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that SMI was associated with an approximate doubling in the rate ratio of CVD-related mortality, particularly since the 1990s, and in younger groups. SMI was also associated with increased incidence of CVA and CHD relative to control participants since the 1990s. More research is needed to clarify the association between SMI and CHD and ways to mitigate this risk.

Effectiveness of interventions to reduce household air pollution from solid biomass fuels and improve maternal and child health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Interventions to reduce household air pollution (HAP) are key to reducing associated morbidity and mortality in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs); especially among pregnant women and young children. This systematic review aims to determine the effectiveness of interventions aimed to reduce HAP exposure associated with domestic solid biomass fuel combustion, compared to usual cooking practices, for improving health outcomes in pregnant women and children under five in LMIC settings. A systematic review and meta-analysis was undertaken with searches undertaken in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, GIM, ClinicalTrials.gov, and Greenfile in August 2020. Inclusion criteria were experimental, non-experimental, or quasi-experimental studies investigating the impact of interventions to reduce HAP exposure and improve associated health outcomes among pregnant women or children under 5 years. Study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment using the Effective Public Health Practice Project tool were undertaken independently by two reviewers. Seventeen out of 7293 retrieved articles (seven pregnancy, nine child health outcome; 13 studies) met the inclusion criteria. These assessed improved cookstoves (ICS; n = 10 studies), ethanol stoves (n = 1 study), and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG; n = 2 studies) stoves interventions. Meta-analysis showed no significant effect of ICS interventions compared to traditional cooking for risk of preterm birth (n = 2 studies), small for gestational age (n = 2 studies), and incidence of acute respiratory infections (n = 6 studies). Although an observed increase in mean birthweight was observed, this was not statistically significant (n = 4). However, ICS interventions reduced the incidence of childhood burns (n = 3; observations = 41 723; Rate Ratio: 0.66 [95% CI: 0.45-0.96]; I2 : 46.7%) and risk of low birth weight (LBW; n = 4; observations = 3456; Odds Ratio: 0.73 [95% CI: 0.61-0.87]; I2 : 21.1%). Although few studies reported health outcomes, the data indicate that ICS interventions were associated with reduced risk of childhood burns and LBW. The data highlight the need for the development and implementation of robust, well-reported and monitored, community-driven intervention trials with longer-term participant follow-up.

Development and external validation of prognostic models for COVID-19 to support risk stratification in secondary care.

OBJECTIVES: Existing UK prognostic models for patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 are limited by reliance on comorbidities, which are under-recorded in secondary care, and lack of imaging data among the candidate predictors. Our aims were to develop and externally validate novel prognostic models for adverse outcomes (death and intensive therapy unit (ITU) admission) in UK secondary care and externally validate the existing 4C score. DESIGN: Candidate predictors included demographic variables, symptoms, physiological measures, imaging and laboratory tests. Final models used logistic regression with stepwise selection. SETTING: Model development was performed in data from University Hospitals Birmingham (UHB). External validation was performed in the CovidCollab dataset. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with COVID-19 admitted to UHB January-August 2020 were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Death and ITU admission within 28 days of admission. RESULTS: 1040 patients with COVID-19 were included in the derivation cohort; 288 (28%) died and 183 (18%) were admitted to ITU within 28 days of admission. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for mortality was 0.791 (95% CI 0.761 to 0.822) in UHB and 0.767 (95% CI 0.754 to 0.780) in CovidCollab; AUROC for ITU admission was 0.906 (95% CI 0.883 to 0.929) in UHB and 0.811 (95% CI 0.795 to 0.828) in CovidCollab. Models showed good calibration. Addition of comorbidities to candidate predictors did not improve model performance. AUROC for the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium 4C score in the UHB dataset was 0.753 (95% CI 0.720 to 0.785). CONCLUSIONS: The novel prognostic models showed good discrimination and calibration in derivation and external validation datasets, and performed at least as well as the existing 4C score using only routinely collected patient information. The models can be integrated into electronic medical records systems to calculate each individual patient's probability of death or ITU admission at the time of hospital admission. Implementation of the models and clinical utility should be evaluated.

What is the effectiveness of community-based health promotion campaigns on chlamydia screening uptake in young people and what barriers and facilitators have been identified? A mixed-methods systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The UK National Chlamydia Screening Programme uses an opportunistic approach. Many programmes use campaigns to raise awareness of chlamydia screening in young people. This review aimed to assess the effectiveness of campaigns on uptake of chlamydia screening in young people. METHODS: We conducted a mixed-methods systematic review of articles assessing the outcomes of community-based health-promotion campaigns to increase chlamydia screening in young people, their experiences of the campaigns and other facilitators and barriers to the conduct of the campaigns. We searched four databases for quantitative and qualitative studies with no language restrictions. MAIN RESULTS: From 10 329 records identified, 19 studies (20 articles) were included in the review: 14 quantitative, 2 qualitative and 3 mixed methods. All studies with quantitative outcomes were before-after study designs or interrupted time series. The prediction interval for relative change (RC) in test counts ranged from 0.95 to 1.56, with a summary pooled estimate of RC 1.22 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.30, 13 studies, I2=97%). For test positivity rate, 95% prediction interval was 0.59 to 1.48, with a summary pooled estimate of RC 0.93 (95% CI 0.81 to 1.07, 8 studies, I2=91.8%). Large variation in characteristics between studies precluded exploring outcomes by type of campaign components. Seven major qualitative themes to improve screening were identified: targeting of campaigns; quality of materials and message; language; anonymity; use of technology; relevance; and variety of testing options. CONCLUSIONS: Health promotion campaigns aiming to increase chlamydia testing in those aged 15-24 years may show some effectiveness in increasing overall numbers of tests, however numbers of positive tests do not follow the same trend. Qualitative findings indicate that campaigns require clear, relevant messaging that displays the full range of testing options and assures anonymity in order to be effective.