Automated bidirectional coupling of multiscale models of aerosol dosimetry: validation with subject-specific deposition data.

Assessing the toxicity of airborne particulate matter or the efficacy of inhaled drug depends upon accurate estimates of deposited fraction of inhaled materials. In silico approaches can provide important insights into site- or airway-specific deposition of inhaled aerosols in the respiratory system. In this study, we improved on our recently developed 3D/1D model that simulate aerosol transport and deposition in the whole lung over multiple breath cycles (J. Aerosol Sci 151:105647). A subject-specific multiscale lung model of a healthy male subject using computational fluid-particle dynamics (CFPD) in a 3D model of the oral cavity through the large bronchial airways entering each lobe was bidirectionally coupled with a recently improved Multiple Path Particle Dosimetry (MPPD) model to predict aerosol deposition over the entire respiratory tract over multiple breaths for four conditions matching experimental aerosol exposures in the same subject from which the model was developed. These include two particle sizes (1 and 2.9 µm) and two subject-specific breathing rates of ~300 ml/s (slow breathing) and ~750 ml/s (fast breathing) at a target tidal volume of 1 L. In silico predictions of retained fraction were 0.31 and 0.29 for 1 µm and 0.66 and 0.62 for 2.9 µm during slow and fast breathing, respectively, and compared well with experimental data (1 µm: 0.31±0.01 (slow) and 0.27±0.01 (fast), 2.9 µm: 0.63±0.03 (slow) and 0.68±0.02 (fast)). These results provide a great deal of confidence in the validity and reliability of our approach.

Influence of alveolar mixing and multiple breaths of aerosol intake on particle deposition in the human lungs.

Predictive dosimetry models play an important role in assessing health effect of inhaled particulate matter and in optimizing delivery of inhaled pharmaceutical aerosols. In this study, the commonly used 1D Multiple-Path Particle Dosimetry model (MPPD) was improved by including a mechanistically based model component for alveolar mixing of particles and by extending the model capabilities to account for multiple breaths of aerosol intake. These modifications increased the retained fraction of particles and consequently particle deposition predictions in the deep lung during tidal breathing. Comparison with an existing dataset (J. Aerosol Sci., 99:27-39, 2016) obtained under two breathing conditions referred to as slow and fast breathing showed significant differences in 1 µm particle deposition between predictions based on subject-specific breathing patterns and lung volume (slow: 30 ± 1%, fast: 21 ± 1%, (average ± standard deviation), N = 7) and measurements (slow: 43 ± 9%, fast: 30 ± 5%) when the prior version of MPPD (single breath and no mixing, J. Aerosol Sci., 151:105647, 2021) was used. Adding a mixing model and multiple breaths moved the predictions (slow: 34 ± 2%, fast:25 ± 2%) closer to the range of deposition measurements. For 2.9 µm particles, predictions from both the original (slow: 70 ± 2%, fast: 57 ± 2%) and the revised MPPD model (slow: 71 ± 2%, fast: 59 ± 3%) compared well with experiments (slow: 67 ± 8%, fast: 58 ± 10%). This was expected as suspended fraction of 2.9 µm particles was small and thus the addition of alveolar mixing and multi breath capability only slightly increased the retained fraction for particles of this size and greater. The revised 1D model improves dose predictions in the deep lung and support human risk assessment from exposure to airborne particles.

Efficient bi-directional coupling of 3D Computational Fluid-Particle Dynamics and 1D Multiple Path Particle Dosimetry lung models for multiscale modeling of aerosol dosimetry.

The development of predictive aerosol dosimetry models has been a major focus of environmental toxicology and pharmaceutical health research for decades. One-dimensional (1D) models successfully predict overall deposition averages but fail to accurately predict local deposition. Computational fluid-particle dynamics (CFPD) models provide site-specific predictions but at a computational cost that prohibits whole lung predictions. Thus, there is a need for developing multiscale strategies to provide a realistic subject-specific picture of the fate of inhaled aerosol in the lungs. CT-based 3D/CFPD models of the large airways were bidirectionally coupled with individualized 1D Navier-Stokes airflow and particle transport based upon the widely used Multiple Path Particle Dosimetry Model (MPPD). Distribution of airflows among lobes was adjusted by measured lobar volume changes observed in CT images between FRC and FRC + 1.5 L. As a test of the effectiveness of the coupling procedures, deposition modeling of previous 1 µm aerosol exposure studies was performed. The complete coupled model was run for 3 breaths, with the computation-intense portion being the 3D CFPD Lagrangian particle tracking calculation. The average deposition per breath was 11% in the combined multiscale model with site-specific doses available in the CFPD portion of the model and airway- or region-specific deposition available for the MPPD portion. In conclusion, the key methods developed in this study enable predictions of ventilation heterogeneities and aerosol deposition across the lungs that are not captured by 3D or 1D models alone. These methods can be used as the foundation for multi-scale modeling of the full respiratory system.

A Comparison of Interobserver Reliability Between Orthopedic Surgeons Using the Centers for Disease Control Surgical Wound Class Definitions.

BACKGROUND: The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) created a classification to help stratify surgical wounds based on contamination and risk of developing a surgical site infection. The classification includes four options (I to IV) depending on the level of contamination present. Although universally applied to a variety of surgical specialties, it is unknown whether the current system is reliable when considering orthopaedic surgeries. The purpose of this study was to compare the degree of interobserver reliability between orthopaedic surgeons using the current CDC wound class definitions. METHODS: A questionnaire containing 30 clinical vignettes was completed by 39 orthopaedic surgeons at our institution. After each vignette, respondents were asked to determine the appropriate wound class based on information provided in the vignette. The overall interobserver agreement among all participants was analyzed. In addition, respondents were queried about the adequacy of the current classification system in describing orthopaedic surgical wound class. RESULTS: Interobserver agreement was poor at 66%, with a coefficient of concordance of 0.48. Only six physicians (15.4%) thought that the current wound classification system adequately covered orthopaedic surgery. CONCLUSIONS: There is poor interobserver reliability using the CDC surgical wound class definitions for orthopaedic surgeries. Alternate definitions are needed to improve the validity of the system for subspecialty procedures.

Women service users' experiences of inpatient mental health services and staff experiences of providing care to women within inpatient mental health services: A systematic review of qualitative evidence.

BACKGROUND: With austerity measures and cuts to community mental health services, more women are accessing UK inpatient mental health services. Inpatient services have been found to lead to further retraumatisation for women, exacerbating mental health conditions. However, recent reviews of service user experiences of inpatient services have neglected the unique perspectives of women and have omitted important dynamics in attitudes and experience between staff and women service users. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this systematic review was to synthesise women service users' experiences of inpatient mental health services and staff experiences of providing care to women within inpatient mental health services, to appraise the methodological quality of research in this area and provide recommendations for clinical practice and future research. REVIEW METHODS: A systematic search of the literature was undertaken in the databases: AMED, CINAHL plus, Embase and PsychINFO. The Critical Appraisal Skills Programme checklist for qualitative research was used to evaluate data quality. Thematic synthesis was conducted on papers meeting the inclusion criteria. RESULTS: Eighteen studies were identified and encapsulated the views of 168 staff and 187 service users, with one paper including both staff and service user samples. Three themes derived from the data: Safe haven, Broken system and Therapeutic milieu. Safe haven related to aspects of care such as relational security which made women feel safer in hospital. Broken system pertained to experiences of being fearful of inpatient environments, inadequate acknowledgement of abuse histories, women feeling coerced into compliance with medication and systemic pressures of services being under-resourced. The therapeutic milieu of inpatient services was an important mediator of women experiencing the environment as a 'safe haven' or 'broken system'. Staff and women service users reflected on: the impact on social roles, interaction of peers, physical environment and the importance of meaningful activity, which were deemed to be important contributors to the therapeutic milieu. CONCLUSIONS: The review made recommendations to improve future research by encouraging studies to include more detail on reflexivity (including the relationship between researcher and participant) and provide more information on the methodological approach to data analysis. Clinical recommendations include: ensuring staff access clinical supervision, for staff to receive training in exploring and supporting women disclosing experiences of abuse, for staff to facilitate choice within inpatient settings and support women in maintaining relationships, particularly parenting roles. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO database (CRD42020156222).

Using routine testing data to understand circulation patterns of influenza A, respiratory syncytial virus and other respiratory viruses in Victoria, Australia.

Several studies have reported evidence of interference between respiratory viruses: respiratory viruses rarely reach their epidemic peak concurrently and there appears to be a negative association between infection with one respiratory virus and co-infection with another. We used results spanning 16 years (2002-2017) of a routine diagnostic multiplex panel that tests for nine respiratory viruses to further investigate these interactions in Victoria, Australia. Time series analyses were used to plot the proportion positive for each virus. The seasonality of all viruses included was compared with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza A virus using cross-correlations. Logistic regression was used to explore the likelihood of co-infection with one virus given infection with another. Seasonal peaks were observed each year for influenza A and RSV and less frequently for influenza B, coronavirus and parainfluenza virus. RSV circulated an average of 6 weeks before influenza A. Co-infection with another respiratory virus was less common with picornavirus, RSV or influenza A infection. Our findings provide further evidence of a temporal relationship in the circulation of respiratory viruses. A greater understanding of the interaction between respiratory viruses may enable better prediction of the timing and magnitude of respiratory virus epidemics.

Recovery from impaired muscle growth arises from prolonged postnatal accretion of myonuclei in Atrx mutant mice.

Reduced muscle mass due to pathological development can occur through several mechanisms, including the loss or reduced proliferation of muscle stem cells. Muscle-specific ablation of the α-thalassemia mental retardation syndrome mutant protein, Atrx, in transgenic mice results in animals with a severely reduced muscle mass at three weeks of age; yet this muscle mass reduction resolves by adult age. Here, we explore the cellular mechanism underlying this effect. Analysis of Atrx mutant mice included testing for grip strength and rotorod performance. Muscle fiber length, fiber volume and numbers of myofiber-associated nuclei were determined from individual EDL or soleus myofibers isolated at three, five, or eight weeks. Myofibers from three week old Atrx mutant mice are smaller with fewer myofiber-associated nuclei and reduced volume compared to control animals, despite similar fiber numbers. Nonetheless, the grip strength of Atrx mutant mice was comparable to control mice when adjusted for body weight. Myofiber volume remained smaller at five weeks, becoming comparable to controls by 8 weeks of age. Concomitantly, increased numbers of myofiber-associated nuclei and Ki67+ myoblasts indicated that the recovery of muscle mass likely arises from the prolonged accretion of new myonuclei. This suggests that under disease conditions the muscle satellite stem cell niche can remain in a prolonged active state, allowing for the addition of a minimum number of myonuclei required to achieve a normal muscle size.

Adding fuel to the fire? Revegetation influences wildfire size and intensity.

The regrowth of woody vegetation in cleared landscapes (i.e. revegetation) has the potential to dramatically alter the spatial characteristics of vegetation and fuels, which will potentially alter fire characteristics. Understanding how revegetation alters fire size and intensity will be critical in determining the social and environmental value of revegetation. We used simulation modelling to examine (i) whether increasing native woody vegetation extent across landscapes cleared for pasture (i.e. revegetation) affects fire size and median fireline intensity and (ii) whether fuel load in the pasture matrix, the initial extent of land clearing and weather conditions during a fire alter the direction and/or magnitude of the relationships between revegetation and fire size or intensity. Simulations revealed that fire size and intensity were altered by increasing woody vegetation extent, though the direction of change was dependent upon landscape context. Increased woody vegetation extent led to (i) increased fire size in landscapes with low pasture fuel load (2 t ha(-1)) regardless of the extent of land clearing, (ii) decreased fire size in highly cleared landscapes with moderate (4.5 t ha(-1)) and high (7 t ha(-1)) pasture fuel load, and (iii) little change to fire size in landscapes subjected to low levels of clearing when pasture fuel load was moderate or high. Similar patterns were observed for fireline intensity. The magnitude of change in fire size and intensity was greatest under extreme fire weather conditions. Revegetation rarely increased median fireline intensity beyond suppressible levels (i.e. 4000 kW m(-1)), with fire weather and pasture fuel load being the main determinants of suppression potential. Our findings show that the response of fire size and intensity to revegetation will depend on landscape scale pasture management.

Computational modeling of nanoscale and microscale particle deposition, retention and dosimetry in the mouse respiratory tract.

Comparing effects of inhaled particles across rodent test systems and between rodent test systems and humans is a key obstacle to the interpretation of common toxicological test systems for human risk assessment. These comparisons, correlation with effects and prediction of effects, are best conducted using measures of tissue dose in the respiratory tract. Differences in lung geometry, physiology and the characteristics of ventilation can give rise to differences in the regional deposition of particles in the lung in these species. Differences in regional lung tissue doses cannot currently be measured experimentally. Regional lung tissue dosimetry can however be predicted using models developed for rats, monkeys, and humans. A computational model of particle respiratory tract deposition and clearance was developed for BALB/c and B6C3F1 mice, creating a cross-species suite of available models for particle dosimetry in the lung. Airflow and particle transport equations were solved throughout the respiratory tract of these mice strains to obtain temporal and spatial concentration of inhaled particles from which deposition fractions were determined. Particle inhalability (Inhalable fraction, IF) and upper respiratory tract (URT) deposition were directly related to particle diffusive and inertial properties. Measurements of the retained mass at several post-exposure times following exposure to iron oxide nanoparticles, micro- and nanoscale C60 fullerene, and nanoscale silver particles were used to calibrate and verify model predictions of total lung dose. Interstrain (mice) and interspecies (mouse, rat and human) differences in particle inhalability, fractional deposition and tissue dosimetry are described for ultrafine, fine and coarse particles.

Shp2 signaling in POMC neurons is important for leptin's actions on blood pressure, energy balance, and glucose regulation.

Previous studies showed that Src homology-2 tyrosine phosphatase (Shp2) is an important regulator of body weight. In this study, we examined the impact of Shp2 deficiency specifically in proopiomelanocortin (POMC) neurons on metabolic and cardiovascular function and on chronic blood pressure (BP) and metabolic responses to leptin. Mice with Shp2 deleted in POMC neurons (Shp2/Pomc-cre) and control mice (Shp2(flox/flox)) were implanted with telemetry probes and venous catheters for measurement of mean arterial pressure (MAP) and leptin infusion. After at least 5 days of stable control measurements, mice received leptin infusion (2 µg·kg(-1)·day(-1) iv) for 7 days. Compared with Shp2(flox/flox) controls, Shp2/Pomc-cre mice at 22 wk of age were slightly heavier (34 ± 1 vs. 31 ± 1 g) but consumed a similar amount of food (3.9 ± 0.3 vs. 3.8 ± 0.2 g/day). Leptin infusion reduced food intake in Shp2(flox/flox) mice (2.6 ± 0.5 g) and Shp2/Pomc-cre mice (3.2 ± 0.3 g). Despite decreasing food intake, leptin infusion increased MAP in control mice, whereas no significant change in MAP was observed in Shp2/Pomc-cre mice. Leptin infusion also decreased plasma glucose and insulin levels in controls (12 ± 1 to 6 ± 1 µU/ml and 142 ± 12 to 81 ± 8 mg/100 ml) but not in Shp2/Pomc-cre mice. Leptin increased V̇o2 by 16 ± 2% in controls and 7 ± 1% in Shp2/Pomc-cre mice. These results indicate that Shp2 signaling in POMC neurons contributes to the long-term BP and antidiabetic actions of leptin and may play a modest role in normal regulation of body weight.

Examining the relative effects of fire weather, suppression and fuel treatment on fire behaviour--a simulation study.

Large budgets are spent on both suppression and fuel treatments in order to reduce the risk of wildfires. There is little evidence regarding the relative contribution of fire weather, suppression and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfires. Here we undertake a simulation study in the Sydney Basin, Australia, to examine this question using a fire behaviour model (Phoenix Rapidfire). Results of the study indicate that fire behaviour is most strongly influenced by fire weather. Suppression has a greater influence on whether a fire reaches 5 ha in size compared to fuel treatments. In contrast, fuel treatments have a stronger effect on the fire size and maximum distance the fire travels. The study suggests that fire management agencies will receive additional benefits from fuel treatment if they are located in areas which suppression resources can respond rapidly and attempt to contain the fires. No combination of treatments contained all fires, and the proportion of uncontained fires increased under more severe fire weather when the greatest number of properties are lost. Our study highlights the importance of alternative management strategies to reduce the risk of property loss.

Airway dysfunction in elite athletes--an occupational lung disease?

Airway dysfunction is prevalent in elite endurance athletes and when left untreated may impact upon both health and performance. There is now concern that the intensity of hyperpnoea necessitated by exercise at an elite level may be detrimental for an athlete's respiratory health. This article addresses the evidence of causality in this context with the aim of specifically addressing whether airway dysfunction in elite athletes should be classified as an occupational lung disease. The approach used highlights a number of concerns and facilitates recommendations to ensure airway health is maintained and optimized in this population. We conclude that elite athletes should receive the same considerations for their airway health as others with potential and relevant occupational exposures.

Control of metabolic and cardiovascular function by the leptin-brain melanocortin pathway.

Obesity is recognized as a major worldwide health problem. Excess weight gain is the most common cause of elevated blood pressure (BP) and markedly increases the risk of metabolic, cardiovascular and renal diseases. Although the mechanisms linking obesity with hypertension have not been fully elucidated, increased sympathetic nervous system (SNS) activity contributes to elevated BP in obese subjects. Recent evidence indicates that leptin and the central nervous system (CNS) melanocortin system, including melanocortin 4 receptors (MC4R), play a key role in linking obesity with increased SNS activity and hypertension. Leptin, a peptide-hormone produced by adipose tissue, crosses the blood-brain barrier and activates brain centers that control multiple metabolic functions as well as SNS activity and BP via the CNS melanocortin system. The crosstalk between peripheral signals (e.g., leptin) and activation of CNS pathways (e.g., MC4R) that regulate energy balance, SNS activity and BP represents an important target for treating obesity and its metabolic and cardiovascular consequences.

Resistance to changing practice from pro re nata prescriptions to patient group directions in acute mental health settings.

Poor practice associated with pro re nata (PRN) prescriptions in mental health is known to be common and can increase the risk of serious and potentially fatal side effects. A contributing factor to poor practice is the lack of a clear chain of accountability between the decision to prescribe and administer PRN prescriptions. To address this problem, a patient group direction (PGD) for acute behavioural disturbance (lorazepam 0.5-2 mg) and staff training materials were developed. The intention was to replace PRN prescriptions with the PGD in two mental health trusts. One of the potential benefits of this would be the removal of the contribution of PRN to high and combined dose antipsychotic prescriptions. This proposal, however, was met with significant resistance in both trusts and did not replace PRN as a result. A series of interviews and focus groups were conducted with 16 RMNs working in the two trusts, to explore the reasons why the PGD was met with resistance. Senior nurses perceived resistance to be associated with anxieties over increased responsibility for decision making. Junior nurses reported concerns regarding the medicalization of the nursing role, the paperwork associated with the PGD and the training approach used. Future efforts to implement PGDs in mental health settings must carefully consider the methods for engaging effectively with participating organizations, in terms of managing change and completing the necessary groundwork for successful implementation.

Compromised genomic integrity impedes muscle growth after Atrx inactivation.

ATR-X syndrome is a severe intellectual disability disorder caused by mutations in the ATRX gene. Many ancillary clinical features are attributed to CNS deficiencies, yet most patients have muscle hypotonia, delayed ambulation, or kyphosis, pointing to an underlying skeletal muscle defect. Here, we identified a cell-intrinsic requirement for Atrx in postnatal muscle growth and regeneration in mice. Mice with skeletal muscle-specific Atrx conditional knockout (Atrx cKO mice) were viable, but by 3 weeks of age presented hallmarks of underdeveloped musculature, including kyphosis, 20% reduction in body mass, and 34% reduction in muscle fiber caliber. Atrx cKO mice also demonstrated a marked regeneration deficit that was not due to fewer resident satellite cells or their inability to terminally differentiate. However, activation of Atrx-null satellite cells from isolated muscle fibers resulted in a 9-fold reduction in myoblast expansion, caused by delayed progression through mid to late S phase. While in S phase, Atrx colocalized specifically to late-replicating chromatin, and its loss resulted in rampant signs of genomic instability. These observations support a model in which Atrx maintains chromatin integrity during the rapid developmental growth of a tissue.

Wildfires, fuel treatment and risk mitigation in Australian eucalypt forests: insights from landscape-scale simulation.

Wildfires pose significant risks to people and human infrastructure worldwide. The treatment of fuel in landscapes may alter these risks but the magnitude of this effect on risk is poorly understood. Evidence from Australian Eucalyptus forests suggests that mitigation of risk using prescribed burning as a fuel treatment is partial because weather and fuel dynamics are conducive to regular high intensity fires. We further examine the response of risk to treatment in eucalypt forests using landscape simulation modelling. We model how five key measures of wildfire activity that govern risk to people and property may respond to variations in rate and spatial pattern of prescribed fire. We then model effects of predicted climate change (2050 scenarios) to determine how the response of risk to treatment is likely to be altered in the future. The results indicate that a halving of risk to people and property in these forests is likely to require treatment rates of 7-10% of the area of the landscape per annum. Projections of 2050 weather conditions under climate change further substantially diminished the effect of rate of treatment. A large increase in rates of treatment (i.e. circa. 50% over current levels) would be required to counteract these effects of climate change. Such levels of prescribed burning are unlikely to be financially feasible across eucalypt dominated vegetation in south eastern Australia. Despite policy imperatives to expand fuel treatment, a reduction rather than an elimination of risk will result. Multi-faceted strategies will therefore be required for the management of risk.

A lung dosimetry model of vapor uptake and tissue disposition.

Inhaled vapors may be absorbed at the alveolar-capillary membrane and enter arterial blood flow to be carried to other organs of the body. Thus, the biological effects of inhaled vapors depend on vapor uptake in the lung and distribution to the rest of the body. A mechanistic model of vapor uptake in the human lung and surrounding tissues was developed for soluble and reactive vapors during a single breath. Lung uptake and tissue disposition of inhaled formaldehyde, acrolein, and acetaldehyde were simulated for different solubilities and reactivities. Formaldehyde, a highly reactive and soluble vapor, was estimated to be taken up by the tissues in the upper tracheobronchial airways with shallow penetration into the lung. Vapors with moderate solubility such as acrolein and acetaldehyde were estimated to penetrate deeper into the lung, reaching the alveolar region where absorbed vapors had a much higher probability of passing through the thin alveolar-capillary membrane to reach the blood. For all vapors, tissue concentration reached its maximum at the end of inhalation at the air-tissue interface. The depth of peak concentration moved within the tissue layer due to vapor desorption during exhalation. The proposed vapor uptake model offers a mechanistic approach for calculations of lung vapor uptake, air:tissue flux, and tissue concentration profiles within the respiratory tract that can be correlated to local biological response in the lung. In addition, the uptake model provides the necessary input for pharmacokinetic models of inhaled chemicals in the body, thus reducing the need for estimating requisite parameters.

An exploratory study investigating the impact of the procedures used to manage patient substance misuse on nurse-patient relationships in a medium secure forensic unit.

The role conflict experienced by forensic psychiatric nurses between their therapeutic responsibilities and their responsibility to operationalize security procedures is well established in the literature. There has been less investigation into how this role conflict is played out specifically in the management of inpatient substance misuse in forensic units. This study, therefore, aimed to explore the views of nurses working in one medium secure unit of the impact of the procedures used to manage substance misuse (partial strip searching, room searching, canine searching, 'pat' (or 'rubdown') searching, urine drug screening) on their relationships with patients. Ten interviews of registered mental health nurses working in a medium secure unit in the Northwest were carried out. The interview data were transcribed verbatim and framework analysis used to identify emergent themes. The impact of the procedures on nurse-patient relationships was reported as largely negative by the participants. They reported that the intrusion of the procedures had a detrimental effect on their relationships with patients. The relative degree of intrusion posed by each of the procedures was an important factor in determining the extent and duration of damage to nurse-patient relationships, as was the communication skills of the nurse conducting the procedure.

Estimating chemical emissions from home and personal care products in China.

China's economy has grown significantly and concomitantly so has the demand for home and personal care (HPC) products. The detection of chemicals used in HPC products is increasing in profile as China strives to improve its environmental management. China is developing robust exposure models for use in regulatory risk-based assessments of chemicals, including those chemicals used in HPC products. Accurate estimates of chemical emissions play an important role within this. A methodology is presented to derive spatially refined emissions from demographic and economic indicators with large variations in emissions calculated, showing product usage being higher in East and South China. The less affordable a product, the greater the influence per capita Gross Domestic Product has on the product distribution. Lastly, more spatially resolved input data highlights greater variation of product use. Linking product sales data with population density increased the observed variability in absolute usage distribution of HPC products at the county > province > regional > country scale.

Estimating surface water concentrations of "down-the-drain" chemicals in China using a global model.

Predictions of surface water exposure to "down-the-drain" chemicals are presented which employ grid-based spatially-referenced data on average monthly runoff, population density, country-specific per capita domestic water and substance use rates and sewage treatment provision. Water and chemical load are routed through the landscape using flow directions derived from digital elevation data, accounting for in-stream chemical losses using simple first order kinetics. Although the spatial and temporal resolution of the model are relatively coarse, the model still has advantages over spatially inexplicit "unit-world" approaches, which apply arbitrary dilution factors, in terms of predicting the location of exposure hotspots and the statistical distribution of concentrations. The latter can be employed in probabilistic risk assessments. Here the model was applied to predict surface water exposure to "down-the-drain" chemicals in China for different levels of sewage treatment provision. Predicted spatial patterns of concentration were consistent with observed water quality classes for China.