A horizon scan of global biological conservation issues for 2024.

We present the results of our 15th horizon scan of novel issues that could influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial list of 96 issues, our international panel of scientists and practitioners identified 15 that we consider important for societies worldwide to track and potentially respond to. Issues are novel within conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change with global or regional extents. For example, new sources of hydrogen fuel and changes in deep-sea currents may have profound impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Technological advances that may be positive include benchtop DNA printers and the industrialisation of approaches that can create high-protein food from air, potentially reducing the pressure on land for food production.

Ten best practices for effective phenological research.

The number and diversity of phenological studies has increased rapidly in recent years. Innovative experiments, field studies, citizen science projects, and analyses of newly available historical data are contributing insights that advance our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to the environment, particularly climate change. However, many phenological data sets have peculiarities that are not immediately obvious and can lead to mistakes in analyses and interpretation of results. This paper aims to help researchers, especially those new to the field of phenology, understand challenges and practices that are crucial for effective studies. For example, researchers may fail to account for sampling biases in phenological data, struggle to choose or design a volunteer data collection strategy that adequately fits their project's needs, or combine data sets in inappropriate ways. We describe ten best practices for designing studies of plant and animal phenology, evaluating data quality, and analyzing data. Practices include accounting for common biases in data, using effective citizen or community science methods, and employing appropriate data when investigating phenological mismatches. We present these best practices to help researchers entering the field take full advantage of the wealth of available data and approaches to advance our understanding of phenology and its implications for ecology.

Grass flowering times determined using herbarium specimens for modeling grass pollen under a warming climate.

The grass family is responsible for most of peoples pollen allergies, and the severity of pollen-based asthma and allergies is expected to increase with global climate change. Identifying grass species through standard pollen monitoring techniques have limitations due to challenges in species-specific pollen identification. As a result, these monitoring methods end up grouping all Poaceae species together, even though there are hundreds of grass species in Europe with flowering times that may vary drastically among species. Given this lack of specificity, it is hard to know which grass species are responsible for causing allergies over the pollen season, and how different species are affected by climate change. To address these issues, we obtained phenological data from thousands of herbarium specimens collected across Denmark spanning 190 years and used pollen monitoring data collected over the last four decades to determine the response of flowering time to climate change for 12 allergenic grass species, and identify which species are likely the biggest contributors to grass pollen loads throughout the pollen season. We find that pollen season duration is lasting longer and starting earlier, and the maximum pollen loads are occurring earlier in response to climate warming. Herbarium specimens provide taxonomic resolution and reveal that many grass species are flowering earlier in response to warmer spring temperatures. Seven out of the 12 species studied in Denmark are identified as major contributors to airborne pollen based on their flowering times, relative abundance and overlap with the time of the year when maximum pollen loads are detected. Four species (Poa pratensis, Dactylis glomerata, Festuca rubra, Holcus lanatus) significantly shifted their flowering time in response to warming temperatures and are flagged as of particular concern to allergy sufferers. Using data derived from natural history collections can contribute to the advancement of pollen forecasting for asthma and allergy patients under both current conditions and amidst future global changes.

Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability.

Advancing spring phenology is a well documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year to year. Species' phenological timings reflect the adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g., thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g., predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in interannual variability encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series representing more than 1000 species across much of the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival were the most sensitive to temperature variation and have advanced at the fastest pace for early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions. We did not find evidence for changing variability in warmer years in any phenophase groups, although leaf-out and flower phenology have become moderately but significantly less variable over time. Our findings suggest that climate change has not to this point fundamentally altered the patterns of interannual phenological variability.

Conservation ethics in the time of the pandemic: Does increasing remote access advance social justice?

The COVID-19 pandemic is stimulating improvements in remote access and use of technology in conservation-related programs and research. In many cases, organizations have intended for remote engagement to benefit groups that have been marginalized in the sciences. But are they? It is important to consider how remote access affects social justice in conservation biology-i.e., the principle that all people should be equally respected and valued in conservation organizations, programs, projects, and practices. To support such consideration, we describe a typology of justice-oriented principles that can be used to examine social justice in a range of conservation activities. We apply this typology to three conservation areas: (1) remote access to US national park educational programs and data; (2) digitization of natural history specimens and their use in conservation research; and (3) remote engagement in conservation-oriented citizen science. We then address the questions: Which justice-oriented principles are salient in which conservation contexts or activities? How can those principles be best realized in those contexts or activities? In each of the three areas we examined, remote access increased participation, but access and benefits were not equally distributed and unanticipated consequences have not been adequately addressed. We identify steps that can and are being taken to advance social justice in conservation, such as assessing programs to determine if they are achieving their stated social justice-oriented aims and revising initiatives as needed. The framework that we present could be used to assess the social justice dimensions of many conservation programs, institutions, practices, and policies.

Wildflower phenological escape differs by continent and spring temperature.

Temperate understory plant species are at risk from climate change and anthropogenic threats that include increased deer herbivory, habitat loss, pollinator declines and mismatch, and nutrient pollution. Recent work suggests that spring ephemeral wildflowers may be at additional risk due to phenological mismatch with deciduous canopy trees. The study of this dynamic, commonly referred to as "phenological escape", and its sensitivity to spring temperature is limited to eastern North America. Here, we use herbarium specimens to show that phenological sensitivity to spring temperature is remarkably conserved for understory wildflowers across North America, Europe, and Asia, but that canopy trees in North America are significantly more sensitive to spring temperature compared to in Asia and Europe. We predict that advancing tree phenology will lead to decreasing spring light windows in North America while spring light windows will be maintained or even increase in Asia and Europe in response to projected climate warming.

Functional traits influence patterns in vegetative and reproductive plant phenology - a multi-botanical garden study.

Phenology has emerged as key indicator of the biological impacts of climate change, yet the role of functional traits constraining variation in herbaceous species' phenology has received little attention. Botanical gardens are ideal places in which to investigate large numbers of species growing under common climate conditions. We ask whether interspecific variation in plant phenology is influenced by differences in functional traits. We recorded onset, end, duration and intensity of initial growth, leafing out, leaf senescence, flowering and fruiting for 212 species across five botanical gardens in Germany. We measured functional traits, including plant height, absolute and specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf carbon and nitrogen content and seed mass and accounted for species' relatedness. Closely related species showed greater similarities in timing of phenological events than expected by chance, but species' traits had a high degree of explanatory power, pointing to paramount importance of species' life-history strategies. Taller plants showed later timing of initial growth, and flowered, fruited and underwent leaf senescence later. Large-leaved species had shorter flowering and fruiting durations. Taller, large-leaved species differ in their phenology and are more competitive than smaller, small-leaved species. We assume climate warming will change plant communities' competitive hierarchies with consequences for biodiversity.

Long-term ecological research and the COVID-19 anthropause: A window to understanding social-ecological disturbance.

The period of disrupted human activity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, coined the "anthropause," altered the nature of interactions between humans and ecosystems. It is uncertain how the anthropause has changed ecosystem states, functions, and feedback to human systems through shifts in ecosystem services. Here, we used an existing disturbance framework to propose new investigation pathways for coordinated studies of distributed, long-term social-ecological research to capture effects of the anthropause. Although it is still too early to comprehensively evaluate effects due to pandemic-related delays in data availability and ecological response lags, we detail three case studies that show how long-term data can be used to document and interpret changes in air and water quality and wildlife populations and behavior coinciding with the anthropause. These early findings may guide interpretations of effects of the anthropause as it interacts with other ongoing environmental changes in the future, particularly highlighting the importance of long-term data in separating disturbance impacts from natural variation and long-term trends. Effects of this global disturbance have local to global effects on ecosystems with feedback to social systems that may be detectable at spatial scales captured by nationally to globally distributed research networks.

A comparison of herbarium and citizen science phenology datasets for detecting response of flowering time to climate change in Denmark.

Phenology has emerged as a key metric to measure how species respond to changes in climate. Innovative means have been developed to extend the temporal and spatial range of phenological data by obtaining data from herbarium specimens, citizen science programs, and biodiversity data repositories. These different data types have seldom been compared for their effectiveness in detecting environmental impacts on phenology. To address this, we compare three separate phenology datasets from Denmark: (i) herbarium specimen data spanning 145 years, (ii) data collected from a citizen science phenology program over a single year observing first flowering, and (iii) data derived from incidental biodiversity observations in iNaturalist over a single year. Each dataset includes flowering day of year observed for three common spring-flowering plant species: Allium ursinum (ramsons), Aesculus hippocastanum (horse chestnut), and Sambucus nigra (black elderberry). The incidental iNaturalist dataset provided the most extensive geographic coverage across Denmark and the largest sample size and recorded peak flowering in a way comparable to herbarium specimens. The directed citizen science dataset recorded much earlier flowering dates because the program objective was to report the first flowering, and so was less compared to the other two datasets. Herbarium data demonstrated the strongest effect of spring temperature on flowering in Denmark, possibly because it was the only dataset measuring temporal variation in phenology, while the other datasets measured spatial variation. Herbarium data predicted the mean flowering day of year recorded in our iNaturalist dataset for all three species. Combining herbarium data with iNaturalist data provides an even more effective method for detecting climatic effects on phenology. Phenology observations from directed and incidental citizen science initiatives will increase in value for climate change research in the coming years with the addition of data capturing the inter-annual variation in phenology.

Plant and bird phenology and plant occurrence from 1851 to 2020 (non-continuous) in Thoreau's Concord, Massachusetts.

Concord, Massachusetts, USA has served as an active location for phenological observations since philosopher and naturalist Henry David Thoreau began recording plant and animal occurrence and phenology in 1851. Since that time, numerous naturalists, scientists, and researchers have continued this tradition, creating an invaluable time series of 758 species in a single location. In total, 13,441 phenological records, spanning 118 years, now exist, with observations of many species ongoing. Relative abundance data for an additional 200 plant species is also provided. Thoreau's published journals and records in Special Collections libraries at the Concord Free Public Library, Harvard University, Peabody Essex Museum, and Morgan Library and Museum provide insight into his methods of routinely walking around Walden Pond, through natural areas, and within the town of Concord, seeking the first leaf or flower on plants, seasonal observations of migratory birds, and fruit maturation times. Several amateur naturalists, and most recently the present research group, have followed this method of regularly searching Concord for the earliest signs of seasonal events, visiting many of the same locations including Walden Pond, the site made famous by Thoreau. While Thoreau's observations were initially made out of a curious desire to document the natural world, these data have led to dozens to contemporary studies, addressing timely issues such as climate change, conservation, ecology, and invasive species. This time series of data, initiated by Thoreau and continued by others, has resulted in dozens of peer-reviewed publications, a popular science book, and numerous educational and outreach opportunities. These data grow increasingly valuable with time and as new and creative studies are undertaken with Thoreau's historic records. No copyright restrictions apply to the use of this data set other than citing this publication.

Macrophenology: insights into the broad-scale patterns, drivers, and consequences of phenology.

Plant phenology research has surged in recent decades, in part due to interest in phenological sensitivity to climate change and the vital role phenology plays in ecology. Many local-scale studies have generated important findings regarding the physiology, responses, and risks associated with shifts in plant phenology. By comparison, our understanding of regional- and global-scale phenology has been largely limited to remote sensing of green-up without the ability to differentiate among plant species. However, a new generation of analytical tools and data sources-including enhanced remote sensing products, digitized herbarium specimen data, and public participation in science-now permits investigating patterns and drivers of phenology across extensive taxonomic, temporal, and spatial scales, in an emerging field that we call macrophenology. Recent studies have highlighted how phenology affects dynamics at broad scales, including species interactions and ranges, carbon fluxes, and climate. At the cusp of this developing field of study, we review the theoretical and practical advances in four primary areas of plant macrophenology: (1) global patterns and shifts in plant phenology, (2) within-species changes in phenology as they mediate species' range limits and invasions at the regional scale, (3) broad-scale variation in phenology among species leading to ecological mismatches, and (4) interactions between phenology and global ecosystem processes. To stimulate future research, we describe opportunities for macrophenology to address grand challenges in each of these research areas, as well as recently available data sources that enhance and enable macrophenology research.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on noise pollution in three protected areas in metropolitan Boston (USA).

Noise pollution can reduce the ability of urban protected areas to provide a refuge for people and habitat for wildlife. Amidst an unprecedented global pandemic, it is unknown if the changes in human activity have significantly impacted noise pollution in metropolitan parks. We tested the hypothesis that reduced human activity associated with the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns would lead to reduced sound levels in protected areas compared with non-pandemic times. We measured sound levels in three urban protected areas in metropolitan Boston, MA (USA) at three time periods: in the fall and summer before the pandemic, immediately after the government-imposed lockdown in March 2020 when the trees were leafless, and during the beginning of reopening in early June 2020 when the trees had leaves. At all time periods, sound levels were highest near major roads and demonstrated a logarithmic decrease further from roads. At the two protected areas closest to the city center, sound levels averaged 1-3 dB lower during the time of the pandemic lockdown. In contrast, at the third protected area, which is transected by a major highway, sound levels were 4-6 dB higher during the time of the pandemic, likely because reduced traffic allowed vehicles to travel faster and create more noise. This study demonstrates that altered human levels of activity, in this case associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, can have major, and in some cases unexpected, effects on the levels of noise pollution in protected areas.

COVID-19 pandemic impacts on conservation research, management, and public engagement in US national parks.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the timing and substance of conservation research, management, and public engagement in protected areas around the world. This disruption is evident in US national parks, which play a key role in protecting natural and cultural resources and providing outdoor experiences for the public. Collectively, US national parks protect 34 million ha, host more than 300 million visits annually, and serve as one of the world's largest informal education organizations. The pandemic has altered park conditions and operations in a variety of ways. Shifts in operational conditions related to safety issues, reduced staffing, and decreased park revenues have forced managers to make difficult trade-offs among competing priorities. Long-term research and monitoring of the health of ecosystems and wildlife populations have been interrupted. Time-sensitive management practices, such as control of invasive plants and restoration of degraded habitat, have been delayed. And public engagement has largely shifted from in-person experiences to virtual engagement through social media and other online interactions. These changes pose challenges for accomplishing important science, management, and public engagement goals, but they also create opportunities for developing more flexible monitoring programs and inclusive methods of public engagement. The COVID-19 pandemic reinforces the need for strategic science, management planning, flexible operations, and online public engagement to help managers address rapid and unpredictable challenges.

Siberian plants shift their phenology in response to climate change.

Siberia has undergone dramatic climatic changes due to global warming in recent decades. Yet, the ecological responses to these climatic changes are still poorly understood due to a lack of data. Here, we use a unique data set from the Russian 'Chronicles of Nature' network to analyse the long-term (1976-2018) phenological shifts in leaf out, flowering, fruiting and senescence of 67 common Siberian plant species. We find that Siberian boreal forest plants advanced their early season (leaf out and flowering) and mid-season (fruiting) phenology by -2.2, -0.7 and -1.6 days/decade, and delayed the onset of senescence by 1.6 days/decade during this period. These mean values, however, are subject to substantial intraspecific variability, which is partly explained by the plants' growth forms. Trees and shrubs advanced leaf out and flowering (-3.1 and -3.3. days/decade) faster than herbs (-1 day/decade), presumably due to the more direct exposure of leaf and flower buds to ambient air for the woody vegetation. For senescence, we detected a reverse pattern: stronger delays in herbs (2.1 days/decade) than in woody plants (1.0-1.2 days/decade), presumably due to the stronger effects of autumn frosts on the leaves of herbs. Interestingly, the timing of fruiting in all four growth forms advanced at similar paces, from 1.4 days/decade in shrubs to 1.7 days/decade in trees and herbs. Our findings point to a strong, yet heterogeneous, response of Siberian plant phenology to recent global warming. Furthermore, the results highlight that species- and growth form-specific differences among study species could be used to identify plants particularly at risk of decline due to their low adaptive capacity or a loss of synchronization with important interaction partners.

Global COVID-19 lockdown highlights humans as both threats and custodians of the environment.

The global lockdown to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic health risks has altered human interactions with nature. Here, we report immediate impacts of changes in human activities on wildlife and environmental threats during the early lockdown months of 2020, based on 877 qualitative reports and 332 quantitative assessments from 89 different studies. Hundreds of reports of unusual species observations from around the world suggest that animals quickly responded to the reductions in human presence. However, negative effects of lockdown on conservation also emerged, as confinement resulted in some park officials being unable to perform conservation, restoration and enforcement tasks, resulting in local increases in illegal activities such as hunting. Overall, there is a complex mixture of positive and negative effects of the pandemic lockdown on nature, all of which have the potential to lead to cascading responses which in turn impact wildlife and nature conservation. While the net effect of the lockdown will need to be assessed over years as data becomes available and persistent effects emerge, immediate responses were detected across the world. Thus, initial qualitative and quantitative data arising from this serendipitous global quasi-experimental perturbation highlights the dual role that humans play in threatening and protecting species and ecosystems. Pathways to favorably tilt this delicate balance include reducing impacts and increasing conservation effectiveness.

The growing and vital role of botanical gardens in climate change research.

Botanical gardens make unique contributions to climate change research, conservation, and public engagement. They host unique resources, including diverse collections of plant species growing in natural conditions, historical records, and expert staff, and attract large numbers of visitors and volunteers. Networks of botanical gardens spanning biomes and continents can expand the value of these resources. Over the past decade, research at botanical gardens has advanced our understanding of climate change impacts on plant phenology, physiology, anatomy, and conservation. For example, researchers have utilized botanical garden networks to assess anatomical and functional traits associated with phenological responses to climate change. New methods have enhanced the pace and impact of this research, including phylogenetic and comparative methods, and online databases of herbarium specimens and photographs that allow studies to expand geographically, temporally, and taxonomically in scope. Botanical gardens have grown their community and citizen science programs, informing the public about climate change and monitoring plants more intensively than is possible with garden staff alone. Despite these advances, botanical gardens are still underutilized in climate change research. To address this, we review recent progress and describe promising future directions for research and public engagement at botanical gardens.