Disease-driven top predator decline affects mesopredator population genomic structure.

Top predator declines are pervasive and often have dramatic effects on ecological communities via changes in food web dynamics, but their evolutionary consequences are virtually unknown. Tasmania's top terrestrial predator, the Tasmanian devil, is declining due to a lethal transmissible cancer. Spotted-tailed quolls benefit via mesopredator release, and they alter their behaviour and resource use concomitant with devil declines and increased disease duration. Here, using a landscape community genomics framework to identify environmental drivers of population genomic structure and signatures of selection, we show that these biotic factors are consistently among the top variables explaining genomic structure of the quoll. Landscape resistance negatively correlates with devil density, suggesting that devil declines will increase quoll genetic subdivision over time, despite no change in quoll densities detected by camera trap studies. Devil density also contributes to signatures of selection in the quoll genome, including genes associated with muscle development and locomotion. Our results provide some of the first evidence of the evolutionary impacts of competition between a top predator and a mesopredator species in the context of a trophic cascade. As top predator declines are increasing globally, our framework can serve as a model for future studies of evolutionary impacts of altered ecological interactions.

The effects of weather variability on patterns of genetic diversity in Tasmanian bettongs.

While the effects of climate (long-term, prevailing weather) on species abundance, range and genetic diversity have been widely studied, short-term, localized variations in atmospheric conditions (i.e., weather) can also rapidly alter species' geographical ranges and population sizes, but little is known about how they affect genetic diversity. We investigated the relationship between weather and range-wide genetic diversity in a marsupial, Bettongia gaimardi, using dynamic species distribution models (SDMs). Genetic diversity was lower in parts of the range where the weather-based SDM predicted high variability in probability of B. gaimardi occurrence during 1950-2009. This is probably an effect of lower population sizes and extinction-recolonization cycles in places with highly variable weather. Spatial variation in genetic diversity was also better predicted by mean probabilities of B. gaimardi occurrence from weather- than climate-based SDMs. Our results illustrate the importance of weather in driving population dynamics and species distributions on decadal timescales and thereby in affecting genetic diversity. Modelling the links between changing weather patterns, species distributions and genetic diversity will allow researchers to better forecast biological impacts of climate change.

A triple threat: high population density, high foraging intensity and flexible habitat preferences explain high impact of feral cats on prey.

Alien mammalian carnivores have contributed disproportionately to global loss of biodiversity. In Australia, predation by the feral cat and red fox is one of the most significant causes of the decline of native vertebrates. To discover why cats have greater impacts on prey than native predators, we compared the ecology of the feral cat to a marsupial counterpart, the spotted-tailed quoll. Individual prey are 20-200 times more likely to encounter feral cats, because of the combined effects of cats' higher population densities, greater intensity of home-range use and broader habitat preferences. These characteristics also mean that the costs to the prey of adopting anti-predator behaviours against feral cats are likely to be much higher than adopting such behaviours in response to spotted-tailed quolls, due to the reliability and ubiquity of feral cat cues. These results help explain the devastating impacts of cats on wildlife in Australia and other parts of the world.