Statistical Modeling of Relations Between PET/CT Parameters and CEA in Recurrent and Metastatic Colorectal Cancer.

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a diverse disease with various clinical, pathological and molecular features that affect tumor biological behavior, treatment response and prognosis. Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between metabolic 18F-FDG PET/CT parameters (SUVmax, MTV and TLG) and CEA in recurrent and metastatic CRC and to evaluate prognostic value of metabolic 18F-FDG PET/CT parameters in recurrent and metastatic CRC. Methods: A descriptive study of 100 patients with previously detected and surgically treated CRC referred to PET/CT with a suspicion of recurrent or metastatic CRC. CEA was measured within three months from the imaging. A low-dose PET/CT was performed per institutional protocol. For each hypermetabolic lesion, metabolic PET/CT parameters (SUVmax, MTV, TLG) were calculated semiautomatically. Pathohistology or clinical data from the follow-up were used as the gold standard. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for 18F-FDG PET/CT and CEA in detection of recurrent or metastatic CRC were calculated. Correlation between CEA and SUVmax, MTV and TLG was calculated, separately. To assess the prognostic values of metabolic parameters in CRC, survival analysis with 18-month progression-free survival (PFS) as an endpoint was performed. Microsoft Excel sheets, ROC and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to present the data. Logrank and Tarone-Ware test and Cox model of proportional hazards were used to compare the groups. Results: Study included 100 patients, 45 males and 55 females, age range 36-81 years, mean age 61,4 years. Cancer site was colon in 56% and rectum in 44%. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of 18F-FDG PET/CT in detection of recurrent or metastatic CRC was 95%, 73%, 70% and 95%, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of CEA in detection of recurrent or metastatic CRC was 58%, 96%, 91% and 78%, respectively. SUVmax, MTV and TLG positively correlated with CEA, but only CEA-TLG correlation was considered significant (r=0,67). The regression model analysis revealed: SUVmax (HR=0,63, 95%CI=0,28-1,41, p=0,214), MTV (0,59, 95%CI=0,28-1,22, p=0,111) and TLG (HR=0,45 95%CI=0,21-0,99, p=0,028), and the prognostic role in CRC was proven for TLG only. Conclusion: Metabolic 18F-FDG PET/CT parameters may have the prognostic value in CRC, but further multicentric prospective studies are required for validation.

Prognostic Significance of Ascites and Serum Sodium in Patients with Low Meld Scores.

OBJECTIVE: to determine ascites and serum sodium significance in short term mortality prediction in patients with advanced liver cirrhosis. METHODS: a cohort of 115 cirrhotic patients referred to our Department were followed up for 6 months in non-transplant settings. The c index equivalent to the area under the receiver operating curve (ROC) was calculated and compared to estimate the short-term prognostic accuracy of the following parameters: ascites, serum sodium and MELD score. RESULTS: in patients with a MELD score less than 21, ascites and low serum sodium (c index 0,687, p<0 0,001 and 0,748, p<0,001 respectively) showed better prognostic accuracy and were independent predictors of mortality. For MELD scores above 21, only MELD was an independent mortality prognostic factor (c index 0,710, p<0,001). CONCLUSION: in our study, sample ascites and low serum sodium help identify patients with advanced liver disease who are at high risk of mortality despite low MELD scores. These parameters should be considered as additional prognostic parameters that could improve available treatment options and outcomes in this group of patients.

Prognostic markers in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

AIM: To evaluate the easily available laboratory and clinical markers in patients with decompensated cirrhosis and compare their prognostic value. METHODS: The study sample included a group of 80 patients with an established diagnosis of decompensated cirrhosis, hspitalizsed at the Department of Gastroenterohepatology, Clinical Center of the University of Sarajevo, between 2009 and 2011, followed up for 6 months either as outpatients or through repeated hspitalizsation. It was estimated that the accuracy (c-index) of the six variables, laboratory (serum bilirubin, creatinine, International Normalised Ratio (INR) and albumine) and clinical variables (hepatic encephalopathy and ascites) reflect the function of the liver in their ability to predict 6-month mortality. RESULTS: Laboratory values of serum creatinine equvivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.787, 95% CI 0,667-0,898), serum bilirubin (0.701 95% CI 0,582- 0,820), INR (0.647 95% CI 0,526-0,768) and clinical parameter ascites (0.7 95%CI 0,598-0,827), showed a statistically significant prognostic accuracy in predicting six-month mortality, but none of the parameters showed excellent diagnostic accuracy . CONCLUSION: Serum creatinine had the best diagnostic accuracy in predicting 6-month mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis and as easily available variable which could be used as predictive parameter in early prognostic assessment ofliver cirrhosis.