RESUMO
Background: China is confronted with the significant menace posed by hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Nevertheless, the long-term spatial-temporal variations, regional prevalence patterns, and fundamental determinants' mechanisms for HFRS remain inadequately elucidated. Methods: Newly diagnosed cases of HFRS from January 2004 to December 2019 were acquired from the China Public Health Science Data repository. We used Age-period-cohort and Bayesian Spacetime Hierarchy models to identify high-risk populations and regions in mainland China. Additionally, the Geographical Detector model was employed to quantify the determinant powers of significant driver factors to the disease. Results: A total of 199,799 cases of HFRS were reported in mainland China during 2004-2019. The incidence of HFRS declined from 1.93 per 100,000 in 2004 to 0.69 per 100,000 in 2019. The incidence demonstrated an inverted U-shaped trend with advancing age, peaking in the 50-54 age group, with higher incidences observed among individuals aged 20-74 years. Hyperendemic areas were mainly concentrated in the northeastern regions of China, while some western provinces exhibited a potential upward trend. Geographical detector model identified that the spatial variations of HFRS were significantly associated with the relative humidity (Q = 0.36), forest cover (Q = 0.26), rainfall (Q = 0.18), temperature (Q = 0.16), and the surface water resources (Q = 0.14). Conclusions: This study offered comprehensive examinations of epidemic patterns, identified high-risk areas quantitatively, and analyzed factors influencing HFRS transmission in China. The findings may contribute to the necessary implementations for the effective prevention and control of HFRS.
RESUMO
Background: Despite ongoing changes in the global epidemiology of cystic echinococcosis (CE), there is a lack of research conducted to date. Methods: We extracted data on incidence and disability-adjusted life years for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 to evaluate the epidemiological characteristics and burden of CE through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. We used locally weighted linear regression to analyse the primary driving factors of the prevalence of CE at the national and regional levels and utilised a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model to forecast the global incidence of CE in the next decade. Results: Globally, the incidence of CE remained constantly high from 1990 (2.65 per 100 000 population) to 2019 (2.60 per 100 000 population), resulting in an estimated 207 368 new cases in 2019. We observed substantial variations in the disease burden regarding its spatiotemporal distribution, population demographics, and Socio-Demographic Index levels. According to established models, factors such as health care capacity, livestock husbandry, agricultural activities, rural populations, and education levels are likely to play significant roles in determining the prevalence of CE across different countries. By 2030, the worldwide number of CE cases could reach as high as 235 628, representing an increase of 13.63% compared to 2019. Conclusions: Over the past three decades, the global burden of CE has persistently remained high, especially in Central Asia, as well as North Africa and the Middle East. Efforts should focus on more effective prevention and control measures in these key regions and should specifically target vulnerable populations to prevent the escalation of epidemics.
