A meta-analysis of 1,119 manipulative experiments on terrestrial carbon-cycling responses to global change.

Direct quantification of terrestrial biosphere responses to global change is crucial for projections of future climate change in Earth system models. Here, we synthesized ecosystem carbon-cycling data from 1,119 experiments performed over the past four decades concerning changes in temperature, precipitation, CO2 and nitrogen across major terrestrial vegetation types of the world. Most experiments manipulated single rather than multiple global change drivers in temperate ecosystems of the USA, Europe and China. The magnitudes of warming and elevated CO2 treatments were consistent with the ranges of future projections, whereas those of precipitation changes and nitrogen inputs often exceeded the projected ranges. Increases in global change drivers consistently accelerated, but decreased precipitation slowed down carbon-cycle processes. Nonlinear (including synergistic and antagonistic) effects among global change drivers were rare. Belowground carbon allocation responded negatively to increased precipitation and nitrogen addition and positively to decreased precipitation and elevated CO2. The sensitivities of carbon variables to multiple global change drivers depended on the background climate and ecosystem condition, suggesting that Earth system models should be evaluated using site-specific conditions for best uses of this large dataset. Together, this synthesis underscores an urgent need to explore the interactions among multiple global change drivers in underrepresented regions such as semi-arid ecosystems, forests in the tropics and subtropics, and Arctic tundra when forecasting future terrestrial carbon-climate feedback.

The Habitability of Proxima Centauri b: Environmental States and Observational Discriminants.

Proxima Centauri b provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the evolution and nature of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Although Proxima Cen b orbits within its star's habitable zone, multiple plausible evolutionary paths could have generated different environments that may or may not be habitable. Here, we use 1-D coupled climate-photochemical models to generate self-consistent atmospheres for several evolutionary scenarios, including high-O2, high-CO2, and more Earth-like atmospheres, with both oxic and anoxic compositions. We show that these modeled environments can be habitable or uninhabitable at Proxima Cen b's position in the habitable zone. We use radiative transfer models to generate synthetic spectra and thermal phase curves for these simulated environments, and use instrument models to explore our ability to discriminate between possible planetary states. These results are applicable not only to Proxima Cen b but to other terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Thermal phase curves may provide the first constraint on the existence of an atmosphere. We find that James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations longward of 10 µm could characterize atmospheric heat transport and molecular composition. Detection of ocean glint is unlikely with JWST but may be within the reach of larger-aperture telescopes. Direct imaging spectra may detect O4 absorption, which is diagnostic of massive water loss and O2 retention, rather than a photosynthetic biosphere. Similarly, strong CO2 and CO bands at wavelengths shortward of 2.5 µm would indicate a CO2-dominated atmosphere. If the planet is habitable and volatile-rich, direct imaging will be the best means of detecting habitability. Earth-like planets with microbial biospheres may be identified by the presence of CH4-which has a longer atmospheric lifetime under Proxima Centauri's incident UV-and either photosynthetically produced O2 or a hydrocarbon haze layer. Key Words: Planetary habitability and biosignatures-Planetary atmospheres-Exoplanets-Spectroscopic biosignatures-Planetary science-Proxima Centauri b. Astrobiology 18, 133-189.