Exploring clinical specialists' perspectives on the future role of AI: evaluating replacement perceptions, benefits, and drawbacks.

BACKGROUND OF STUDY: Over the past few decades, the utilization of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has surged in popularity, and its application in the medical field is witnessing a global increase. Nevertheless, the implementation of AI-based healthcare solutions has been slow in developing nations like Pakistan. This unique study aims to assess the opinion of clinical specialists on the future replacement of AI, its associated benefits, and its drawbacks in form southern region of Pakistan. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A cross-sectional selective study was conducted from 140 clinical specialists (Surgery = 24, Pathology = 31, Radiology = 35, Gynecology = 35, Pediatric = 17) from the neglected southern Punjab region of Pakistan. The study was analyzed using χ2 - the test of association and the nexus between different factors was examined by multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Out of 140 respondents, 34 (24.3%) believed hospitals were ready for AI, while 81 (57.9%) disagreed. Additionally, 42(30.0%) were concerned about privacy violations, and 70(50%) feared AI could lead to unemployment. Specialists with less than 6 years of experience are more likely to embrace AI (p = 0.0327, OR = 3.184, 95% C.I; 0.262, 3.556) and those who firmly believe that AI knowledge will not replace their future tasks exhibit a lower likelihood of accepting AI (p = 0.015, OR = 0.235, 95% C.I: (0.073, 0.758). Clinical specialists who perceive AI as a technology that encompasses both drawbacks and benefits demonstrated a higher likelihood of accepting its adoption (p = 0.084, OR = 2.969, 95% C.I; 0.865, 5.187). CONCLUSION: Clinical specialists have embraced AI as the future of the medical field while acknowledging concerns about privacy and unemployment.

A hybrid forecasting technique for infection and death from the mpox virus.

Objectives: The rising of new cases and death counts from the mpox virus (MPV) is alarming. In order to mitigate the impact of the MPV it is essential to have information of the virus's future position using more precise time series and stochastic models. In this present study, a hybrid forecasting system has been developed for new cases and death counts for MPV infection using the world daily cumulative confirmed and death series. Methods: The original cumulative series was decomposed into new two subseries, such as a trend component and a stochastic series using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. To assess the efficacy of the proposed models, a comparative analysis with several widely recognized benchmark models, including auto-regressive (AR) model, auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model, non-parametric auto-regressive (NPAR) model and artificial neural network (ANN), was performed. Results: The introduction of two novel hybrid models, HPF11 and HPF34, which demonstrated superior performance compared to all other models, as evidenced by their remarkable results in key performance indicators such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), is a significant advancement in disease prediction. Conclusion: The new models developed can be implemented in forecasting other diseases in the future. To address the current situation effectively, governments and stakeholders must implement significant changes to ensure strict adherence to standard operating procedures (SOPs) by the public. Given the anticipated continuation of increasing trends in the coming days, these measures are essential for mitigating the impact of the outbreak.

Forecasting real exchange rate (REER) using artificial intelligence and time series models.

Forecasting is an attractive topic in every field of study because no one knows the exact nature of the underlying phenomena, but it can be guessed using mathematical functions. As the world progresses towards technology and betterment, algorithms are updated to understand the nature of ongoing phenomena. Machine learning (ML) algorithms are an updated phenomenon used in every task aspect. Real exchange rate data is assumed to be one of the significant components of the business market, which plays a pivotal role in learning market trends. In this work, machine learning models, i.e., the Multi-layer perceptron model (MLP), Extreme learning machine (ELM) model and classical time series models are used, Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) model to model and predict the real exchange rate data set (REER). The data under consideration is from January 2019 to June 2022 and comprises 864 observations. This study split the data set into training and testing and applied all stated models. This study selects a model that meets the Key Performance Indicators (KPI) criteria. This model was selected as the best candidate model to predict the behaviour of the real exchange rate data set.

An autoregressive distributed lag approach for estimating the nexus between CO2 emissions and economic determinants in Pakistan.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have become a critical aspect of the economic and sustainable development indicators of every country. In Pakistan, where there is a substantial increase in the population, industrialization, and demand for electricity production from different resources, the fear of an increase in CO2 emissions cannot be ignored. This study explores the link that betwixt CO2 emissions with different significant economic indicators in Pakistan from 1960 to 2018 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling technique. We implemented the covariance proportion, coefficient of determination, the Durbin Watson D statistics, analysis of variance (ANOVA), variance inflating factor (VIF), the Breusch-Pagan test, the Theil's inequality, the root mean quare error (RMSE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and the mean absolute error (MAE) for the diagnostics, efficiency, and validity of our model. Our results showed a significant association between increased CO2 emissions and increased electricity production from oil, gas, and other sources. An increase in electricity production from coal resources was seen to have resulted in a decrease in CO2 emissions. We observed that an increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth significantly contributed to the increased CO2 emissions. The increment in CO2 emissions resulting from industrial growth was not significant. The increment in CO2 emissions in the contemporary year is significantly associated with the preceding year's increase. The rate of increase was very alarming, a sign that no serious efforts have been channelled in this regard to reduce this phenomenon. We call for policy dialogue to devise energy-saving and CO2 emission reduction strategies to minimize the impact of climate change on industrialization, population growth, and GDP growth without deterring economic and human growth. Electricity production from different sources with no or minimal CO2 emissions should be adopted. We also recommend rigorous tree planting nationwide to help reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere as well as environmental pollution.

Pakistan CO2 Emission Modelling and Forecasting: A Linear and Nonlinear Time Series Approach.

Pakistan is considered among the top five countries with the highest CO2 emissions globally. This calls for pragmatic policy implementation by all stakeholders to bring finality to this alarming situation since it contributes greatly to global warming, thereby leading to climate change. This study is an attempt to make a comparative analysis of the linear time series models with nonlinear time series models to study CO2 emission data in Pakistan. These linear and nonlinear time series models were used to model and forecast future values of CO2 emissions for a short period. To assess and select the best model among these linear and nonlinear time series models, we used the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) as performance indicators. The outputs showed that the nonlinear machine learning models are the best among all other models, having the lowest RMSE and MAE values. Based on the forecasted value of the nonlinear machine learning neural network autoregressive model, Pakistan's CO2 emissions will be 1.048 metric tons per capita by 2028. The increasing trend in emissions is a frightening and clear warning, suggesting that innovative policies must be initiated to reduce the trend. We encourage the Pakistan government to price CO2 emissions by companies and entities per ton, adapt electricity production from hydro, wind, and different sources with no emissions of CO2, initiate rigorous planting of more trees in the populated areas of Pakistan as forest covers, provide incentives to companies, organisations, institutions, and households to come out with clean technologies or use technologies with no CO2 emissions or those with lower ones, and fund more studies to develop clean and innovative technologies with less or no CO2 emissions.

Comparative Evaluation of the Multilayer Perceptron Approach with Conventional ARIMA in Modeling and Prediction of COVID-19 Daily Death Cases.

COVID-19 continues to pose a dangerous global health threat, as cases grow rapidly and deaths increase day by day. This increasing phenomenon does not only affect economic policy but also international policy around the world. In this paper, Pakistan daily death cases of COVID-19, from February 25, 2020, to March 23, 2022, have been modeled using the long-established autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the machine learning multilayer perceptron (MLP) model. The most befitting model is selected based on the root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). Values of the key performance indicator (KPI) showed that the MLP model outperformed the ARIMA model. The MLP model with 20 hidden layers, which emerged as the overall most apt model, was used to predict future daily COVID-19 deaths in Pakistan to enable policymakers and health professionals to put in place systematic measures to reduce death cases. We encourage the Government of Pakistan to intensify its vaccination campaign and encourage everyone to get vaccinated.

Modeling and Forecasting Monkeypox Cases Using Stochastic Models.

BACKGROUND: Monkeypox virus is gaining attention due to its severity and spread among people. This study sheds light on the modeling and forecasting of new monkeypox cases. Knowledge about the future situation of the virus using a more accurate time series and stochastic models is required for future actions and plans to cope with the challenge. METHODS: We conduct a side-by-side comparison of the machine learning approach with the traditional time series model. The multilayer perceptron model (MLP), a machine learning technique, and the Box-Jenkins methodology, also known as the ARIMA model, are used for classical modeling. Both methods are applied to the Monkeypox cumulative data set and compared using different model selection criteria such as root mean square error, mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error. RESULTS: With a root mean square error of 150.78, the monkeypox series follows the ARIMA (7,1,7) model among the other potential models. Comparatively, we use the multilayer perceptron (MLP) model, which employs the sigmoid activation function and has a different number of hidden neurons in a single hidden layer. The root mean square error of the MLP model, which uses a single input and ten hidden neurons, is 54.40, significantly lower than that of the ARIMA model. The actual confirmed cases versus estimated or fitted plots also demonstrate that the multilayer perceptron model has a better fit for the monkeypox data than the ARIMA model. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION: When it comes to predicting monkeypox, the machine learning method outperforms the traditional time series. A better match can be achieved in future studies by applying the extreme learning machine model (ELM), support vector machine (SVM), and some other methods with various activation functions. It is thus concluded that the selected data provide a real picture of the virus. If the situations remain the same, governments and other stockholders should ensure the follow-up of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) among the masses, as the trends will continue rising in the upcoming 10 days. However, governments should take some serious interventions to cope with the virus. LIMITATION: In the ARIMA models selected for forecasting, we did not incorporate the effect of covariates such as the effect of net migration of monkeypox virus patients, government interventions, etc.

Impact of Sociocultural Factors on Contraceptive Use: A Case Study of Pakistan.

Background: The use of birth control methods is influenced by complex and competing socioeconomic and demographic factors. Regardless of the complexity of the behavioral approach of women, the utility of contraceptive methods in providing the opportunity of choice is well paired. This study examined the factors driving the usage of contraception and the impact of contraceptive practices on population growth in Pakistan. We also perused the quantification of sociocultural contraceptive use. Methodology. The Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS, 2017-18) dataset collected by the National Institute of Population Study (NIPS) was used for all analyses. We applied the frequentist logistic regression model and multinomial logistic regression model in assessing factors impacting contraceptive practices. Bayesian logistic and multinomial regression models were also implemented to compare estimates. The regions and provinces in Pakistan were considered as different clusters, thereby introducing hierarchical structures in the regression model. Results: The study revealed a distinctive highly significant negative effect on contraceptive use and women's age. The odds ratio (OR) for women aged 25-34, 35-44, and above 44 was 1.242, 1.155, and 0.638, respectively, which shows that the OR of contraceptive use decreases in women aged 25-44. Our study showed the superior performance of the Bayesian model in highlighting disparities among the various cultural streams existing in the country. Estimates of the Bayesian analysis of competing models indicated that the Bayesian models provide powerful estimates compared to the classical models. Conclusion: Our results indicated that contraceptive use is almost relevant to sociodemographic factors (education, age, language, partner, work, etc.). Women with no formal education living in rural areas were not aware of the use of contraception, thereby not using it. Contraceptive use and methods are most probably influenced by the age and the number of children of women. We recommend that high-quality education, counseling, and widespread access to contraceptives should be prioritized in family planning healthcare in all areas of the country, especially rural areas.