Treatment Patterns, Outcomes, and Persistence to Newly Started Heart Failure Medications in Patients with Worsening Heart Failure: A Cohort Study from the United States and Germany.

BACKGROUND: Data are limited regarding guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) treatment patterns in patients with worsening heart failure (HF). METHODS: We used administrative claims databases in Germany and the USA to conduct a retrospective cohort study of patients with worsening HF. Two cohorts of patients with prevalent HF and a HF hospitalization (HFH) from 2016 to 2019, alive at discharge (N = 75,140 USA; N = 47,003 Germany) were identified. Index date was the first HFH during the study period. One-year HF rehospitalization and mortality rates were calculated and a composite endpoint of both outcomes assessed using Kaplan-Meier estimation. We evaluated HF medication patterns in the 6 months before and after the index date. New users of a HF medication (at discharge/after index HFH) were followed for 1 year to evaluate persistence (no treatment gaps > 2 months) RESULTS: One-year HF rehospitalization rates were 36.2% (USA) and 47.7% (Germany). One year mortality rates were 30.0% (USA) and 23.0% (Germany), and the composite endpoint (mortality/HF rehospitalization) was reached in 55.1 % (USA) and 56.6% (Germany). Kaplan-Meier plots showed the risk for the composite endpoint was high in the early post discharge period. Comparison of patterns pre- and postindex HFH showed some increase in use of mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs), angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI), and triple therapy; use of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor/ angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) plus beta-blockers remained constant/slightly declined; < 20% patients received triple therapy (ACE inhibitor/ARB plus beta-blocker plus MRA). A third of patients were new users; 1 year persistence rates were often low. CONCLUSIONS: Morbidity, mortality, and rehospitalization risk is high among patients with worsening HF; uptake and continuation of GDMT is suboptimal.

Initiation and continuation of pharmacological therapies in patients hospitalized for heart failure in Japan.

Currently, the utilization patterns of medications for heart failure (HF) after worsening HF events remain unelucidated in Japan. Here, we conducted a retrospective cohort study evaluating the changes in HF drug utilization patterns in 6 months before and after hospitalizations for HF. The adherence to newly initiated HF medications was evaluated based on the proportion of days covered (PDC) and persistence as continuous treatment episodes among new users. The study included 9091 patients hospitalized for HF between January 2016 and September 2019, including 2735 (30.1%) patients who were newly prescribed at least one HF medication after hospitalization. Despite increases in the use of foundational HF therapy (beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, or mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists), 35.6% and 7.6% of patients were treated with the HF foundational monotherapy or diuretics alone after hospitalization, respectively. The mean PDC of newly initiated HF medications ranged from 0.57 for thiazide diuretics to 0.77 for sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors. Continuous use of HF medications during the first year after initiation was observed in 30-60% of patients. The mean PDC and one-year continuous HF medication use were consistently lower in patients aged ≥ 75 years and in patients with a history of HF hospitalization for all HF medication classes except for tolvaptan and digoxin. Despite the guideline recommendations of HF pharmacotherapy, both treatment and adherence were suboptimal after HF hospitalization, especially in vulnerable populations such as older patients and those with prior HF hospitalizations.

A Case for Synthetic Data in Regulatory Decision-Making in Europe.

Regulators are faced with many challenges surrounding health data usage, including privacy, fragmentation, validity, and generalizability, especially in the European Union, for which synthetic data may provide innovative solutions. Synthetic data, defined as data artificially generated rather than captured in the real world, are increasingly being used for healthcare research purposes as a proxy to real-world data (RWD). Currently, there are barriers particularly challenging in Europe, where sharing patient's data is strictly regulated, costly, and time-consuming, causing delays in evidence generation and regulatory approvals. Recent initiatives are encouraging the use of synthetic data in regulatory decision making and health technology assessment to overcome these challenges, but synthetic data have still to overcome realistic obstacles before their adoption by researchers and regulators in Europe. Thus, the emerging use of RWD and synthetic data by pharmaceutical and medical device industries calls regulatory bodies to provide a framework for proper evidence generation and informed regulatory decision making. As the provision of data becomes more ubiquitous in scientific research, so will innovations in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and generation of synthetic data, making the exploration and intricacies of this topic all the more important and timely. In this review, we discuss the potential merits and challenges of synthetic data in the context of decision making in the European regulatory environment. We explore the current uses of synthetic data and ongoing initiatives, the value of synthetic data for regulatory purposes, and realistic barriers to the adoption of synthetic data in healthcare.

High unmet treatment needs in patients with chronic kidney disease and type 2 diabetes: real-world evidence from a US claims database.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD), a serious complication of type 2 diabetes (T2D) increases the comorbid risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and end-stage kidney disease(ESKD). Treatment guidelines recommend renin-angiotensin blockade and antihyperglycemic treatment with metformin and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) as first-line treatment. We evaluated treatment initiation and discontinuation overall and in subgroups of T2D patients with incident CKD (incident cohort) and rates of clinical and economic outcomes in patients with T2D and any CKD (prevalent cohort). METHODS: In this retrospective study of administrative claims in the USA between 1 January 2007 and 31 March 2019, we evaluated the proportion of patients with concomitant, newly initiated and discontinued use of antihypertensive [angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi)/angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs), steroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (sMRAs)] and antidiabetic [SGLT2is, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4is), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs), insulin and sulfonylureas] medications, rates of clinical outcomes per 1000 person-years and mean total healthcare costs. RESULTS: We identified 63 127 and 326 763 patients in the incident and prevalent CKD cohorts, respectively. Low initiation and high discontinuation rates were observed with 17.8% and 56.0% for ACEi/ARBs, 1.3% and 66.0% for sMRAs, 2.5% and 65.0% for SGLT2is, 3.7% and 66.8% for DPP4is, 2.31% and 69.0% for GLP-1 RAs, 4% and 75.7% for insulin and 5.5% and 56.9% for sulfonylureas. Similar results were seen by subgroups. Rates of clinical outcomes ranged from 35.07 per 1000 person-years for all-cause mortality to 104.19 for ESKD, with rates of hospitalization ranging from 36.61 for kidney hospitalizations to 283.14 for all-cause hospitalizations. Among patients with comorbidities, higher clinical and economic outcomes were found. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight high unmet needs of CKD and T2D, particularly subgroups of patients with multimorbid CVD, high-risk CKD (low estimated glomerular filtration rate or high urinary albumin:creatinine ratio) or rapidly progressing CKD. Low initiation and high discontinuation of recommended treatments suggest that adherence to guidelines for halting CKD progression is suboptimal. These high-risk patients may benefit from further treatment options to improve morbidity and mortality and reduce the economic burden.

Predictors of cardio-kidney complications and treatment failure in patients with chronic kidney disease and type 2 diabetes treated with SGLT2 inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice guidelines recommend sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) to mitigate adverse kidney and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), including patients with comorbid chronic kidney disease (CKD), also referred to as diabetic kidney disease (DKD), who are at even higher risk. In this study, we sought to identify predictors of cardio-kidney events, cardio-kidney complications, and treatment failure (i.e., addition/initiation of a new T2D class, insulin, or discontinuation of SGLT2is) after new initiation of SGLT2is in patients with CKD and T2D (DKD). METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we identified adult patients with DKD who initiated SGLT2is between April 1, 2012, and June 30, 2019, in Optum claims data. Outcome rates per 1000 person-years (PY) are reported with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Cox proportional hazards regression identified patient characteristics associated with each outcome. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 6389 initiators of SGLT2is. The rate of CV hospitalization was 26.0 (95% CI 21.6, 30.4) per 1000 PY. Baseline characteristics associated with higher risk of CV hospitalization included age, atrial fibrillation, peripheral vascular disease (PVD), and cancer. The rate of kidney hospitalization was 12.0 (95% CI 9.0, 15.0) per 1000 PY. The risk increased significantly with baseline evidence of heart failure, hyperkalemia, respiratory failure, depression, and use of loop diuretics. In total, 55.0% of all SGLT2i initiators discontinued treatment during the follow-up period. The rate of treatment failure was 510.5 (95% CI 492.9, 528.1) per 1000 PY. Analysis of key time-dependent SGLT2i-associated adverse events showed that experiencing diabetic ketoacidosis and volume depletion were associated with risk of treatment failure. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated high rates of residual cardio-kidney outcomes and treatment failure in patients with DKD treated with SGLT2is. Patients with high baseline CV risk and the presence of certain conditions, such as atrial fibrillation, PVD, and heart failure, were at higher risk for cardio-kidney events. Further research is needed to assess the potential relationship between adverse events and SGLT2i treatment failure.

Assessing the impact of preventive mass vaccination campaigns on yellow fever outbreaks in Africa: A population-level self-controlled case series study.

BACKGROUND: The Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy was launched in 2017 in response to the resurgence of yellow fever in Africa and the Americas. The strategy relies on several vaccination activities, including preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs). However, to what extent PMVCs are associated with a decreased risk of outbreak has not yet been quantified. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the self-controlled case series (SCCS) method to assess the association between the occurrence of yellow fever outbreaks and the implementation of PMVCs at the province level in the African endemic region. As all time-invariant confounders are implicitly controlled for in the SCCS method, this method is an alternative to classical cohort or case-control study designs when the risk of residual confounding is high, in particular confounding by indication. The locations and dates of outbreaks were identified from international epidemiological records, and information on PMVCs was provided by coordinators of vaccination activities and international funders. The study sample consisted of provinces that were both affected by an outbreak and targeted for a PMVC between 2005 and 2018. We compared the incidence of outbreaks before and after the implementation of a PMVC. The sensitivity of our estimates to a range of assumptions was explored, and the results of the SCCS method were compared to those obtained through a retrospective cohort study design. We further derived the number of yellow fever outbreaks that have been prevented by PMVCs. The study sample consisted of 33 provinces from 11 African countries. Among these, the first outbreak occurred during the pre-PMVC period in 26 (79%) provinces, and during the post-PMVC period in 7 (21%) provinces. At the province level, the post-PMVC period was associated with an 86% reduction (95% CI 66% to 94%, p < 0.001) in the risk of outbreak as compared to the pre-PMVC period. This negative association between exposure to PMVCs and outbreak was robustly observed across a range of sensitivity analyses, especially when using quantitative estimates of vaccination coverage as an alternative exposure measure, or when varying the observation period. In contrast, the results of the cohort-style analyses were highly sensitive to the choice of covariates included in the model. Based on the SCCS results, we estimated that PMVCs were associated with a 34% (95% CI 22% to 45%) reduction in the number of outbreaks in Africa from 2005 to 2018. A limitation of our study is the fact that it does not account for potential time-varying confounders, such as changing environmental drivers of yellow fever and possibly improved disease surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we provide new empirical evidence of the high preventive impact of PMVCs on yellow fever outbreaks. This study illustrates that the SCCS method can be advantageously applied at the population level in order to evaluate a public health intervention.

An evaluation of inverse probability weighting using the propensity score for baseline covariate adjustment in smaller population randomised controlled trials with a continuous outcome.

BACKGROUND: It is important to estimate the treatment effect of interest accurately and precisely within the analysis of randomised controlled trials. One way to increase precision in the estimate and thus improve the power for randomised trials with continuous outcomes is through adjustment for pre-specified prognostic baseline covariates. Typically covariate adjustment is conducted using regression analysis, however recently, Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score has been proposed as an alternative method. For a continuous outcome it has been shown that the IPTW estimator has the same large sample statistical properties as that obtained via analysis of covariance. However the performance of IPTW has not been explored for smaller population trials (< 100 participants), where precise estimation of the treatment effect has potential for greater impact than in larger samples. METHODS: In this paper we explore the performance of the baseline adjusted treatment effect estimated using IPTW in smaller population trial settings. To do so we present a simulation study including a number of different trial scenarios with sample sizes ranging from 40 to 200 and adjustment for up to 6 covariates. We also re-analyse a paediatric eczema trial that includes 60 children. RESULTS: In the simulation study the performance of the IPTW variance estimator was sub-optimal with smaller sample sizes. The coverage of 95% CI's was marginally below 95% for sample sizes < 150 and ≥ 100. For sample sizes < 100 the coverage of 95% CI's was always significantly below 95% for all covariate settings. The minimum coverage obtained with IPTW was 89% with n = 40. In comparison, regression adjustment always resulted in 95% coverage. The analysis of the eczema trial confirmed discrepancies between the IPTW and regression estimators in a real life small population setting. CONCLUSIONS: The IPTW variance estimator does not perform so well with small samples. Thus we caution against the use of IPTW in small sample settings when the sample size is less than 150 and particularly when sample size < 100.