RESUMO
The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers' ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to previously modeled results and suggest that increased sediment delivery may be capable of offsetting accelerated sea-level rise. This prospect for a naturally sustained Ganges-Brahmaputra delta presents possibilities beyond the dystopian future often posed for this system, but the implementation of currently proposed dams and diversions would preclude such opportunities.
RESUMO
The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (G-B) river system transports >1 × 109 t/yr of sediment, with an estimated 0.7 × 109 t/yr reaching the Bay of Bengal (BoB). This discharge represents a major input of sediment and associated elements to the global ocean, but quantification of the sediment-element mass reaching the BoB has yet to be fully explored. Published geochemical and suspended sediment data are used to calculate a first-order budget for the modern sediment supply of geochemical elements to the BoB. River profile bulk sediment-element concentrations are calculated based on suspended sediment and element measurements taken in the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. A Monte Carlo analysis is applied to account for variable sediment and geochemical contributions from each river. Results show that on average, the G-B system contributes ~5% of the global riverine discharge of solid-phase elements from sediment to the oceans. G-B sediments transport >10% of the global element supply of Hf and Zr. For others, like As and Cu, contributions from the G-B are <5%. Results also show that sediment reaching the BoB is relatively enriched in Hf, Zr, Th, REEs, Sn, and Bi, and majorly depleted in Na and Sr compared to UCC elemental concentrations. While limited by data availability and necessary simplifying assumptions, this study nevertheless provides a reasonable first-order budget for the modern discharge of solid-phase elements to the BoB. Insights from this work are significant for understanding the role of the G-B river system in global elemental cycling, and for providing a basis of comparison for future sediment-element discharge in light of rapid environmental change taking place in the region.
