Use of Advanced Flexible Modeling Approaches for Survival Extrapolation from Early Follow-up Data in two Nivolumab Trials in Advanced NSCLC with Extended Follow-up.

OBJECTIVES: Immuno-oncology (IO) therapies are often associated with delayed responses that are deep and durable, manifesting as long-term survival benefits in patients with metastatic cancer. Complex hazard functions arising from IO treatments may limit the accuracy of extrapolations from standard parametric models (SPMs). We evaluated the ability of flexible parametric models (FPMs) to improve survival extrapolations using data from 2 trials involving patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: Our analyses used consecutive database locks (DBLs) at 2-, 3-, and 5-y minimum follow-up from trials evaluating nivolumab versus docetaxel in patients with pretreated metastatic squamous (CheckMate-017) and nonsquamous (CheckMate-057) NSCLC. For each DBL, SPMs, as well as 3 FPMs-landmark response models (LRMs), mixture cure models (MCMs), and Bayesian multiparameter evidence synthesis (B-MPES)-were estimated on nivolumab overall survival (OS). The performance of each parametric model was assessed by comparing milestone restricted mean survival times (RMSTs) and survival probabilities with results obtained from externally validated SPMs. RESULTS: For the 2- and 3-y DBLs of both trials, all models tended to underestimate 5-y OS. Predictions from nonvalidated SPMs fitted to the 2-y DBLs were highly unreliable, whereas extrapolations from FPMs were much more consistent between models fitted to successive DBLs. For CheckMate-017, in which an apparent survival plateau emerges in the 3-y DBL, MCMs fitted to this DBL estimated 5-y OS most accurately (11.6% v. 12.3% observed), and long-term predictions were similar to those from the 5-y validated SPM (20-y RMST: 30.2 v. 30.5 mo). For CheckMate-057, where there is no clear evidence of a survival plateau in the early DBLs, only B-MPES was able to accurately predict 5-y OS (14.1% v. 14.0% observed [3-y DBL]). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that the use of FPMs for modeling OS in NSCLC patients from early follow-up data can yield accurate estimates for RMST observed with longer follow-up and provide similar long-term extrapolations to externally validated SPMs based on later data cuts. B-MPES generated reasonable predictions even when fitted to the 2-y DBLs of the studies, whereas MCMs were more reliant on longer-term data to estimate a plateau and therefore performed better from 3 y. Generally, LRM extrapolations were less reliable than those from alternative FPMs and validated SPMs but remained superior to nonvalidated SPMs. Our work demonstrates the potential benefits of using advanced parametric models that incorporate external data sources, such as B-MPES and MCMs, to allow for accurate evaluation of treatment clinical and cost-effectiveness from trial data with limited follow-up. HIGHLIGHTS: Flexible advanced parametric modeling methods can provide improved survival extrapolations for immuno-oncology cost-effectiveness in health technology assessments from early clinical trial data that better anticipate extended follow-up.Advantages include leveraging additional observable trial data, the systematic integration of external data, and more detailed modeling of underlying processes.Bayesian multiparameter evidence synthesis performed particularly well, with well-matched external data.Mixture cure models also performed well but may require relatively longer follow-up to identify an emergent plateau, depending on the specific setting.Landmark response models offered marginal benefits in this scenario and may require greater numbers in each response group and/or increased follow-up to support improved extrapolation within each subgroup.

Ordinary care in extraordinary times.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has accounted for more than 25 000 cases in Ireland with approximately 28% of the clusters in nursing homes as of June 2020. The older population is the most vulnerable to serious complications from this illness and over 90% of deaths due to COVID-19 to date have been in patients over the age of 65. Continuing to provide routine care within nursing homes in these challenging times is an essential part of ensuring that presentations to hospitals for non-essential reasons are minimized. In this article, we describe a project being undertaken by a rural Psychiatry of Old Age Service in the northwest of Ireland. We aim to provide ordinary care in extraordinary times by using mobile tablets within the nursing homes and long-stay facilities in our region for remote video consultations during the COVID-19 crisis.

The relationship between childhood adversities and dissociation in severe mental illness: a meta-analytic review.

OBJECTIVE: Several studies have observed that dissociative experiences are frequently reported by individuals with severe mental illness (SMI), especially amongst patients that report a history of adverse/traumatic life experiences. This review examined the magnitude and consistency of the relationship between childhood adversity (sexual abuse, physical abuse, emotional abuse, neglect, bullying, natural disasters and mass violence) and dissociation across three SMI diagnostic groups: schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and personality disorders. METHOD: A database search (EMBASE, PubMed and PsycINFO) identified 30 eligible empirical studies, comprising of 2199 clinical participants. Effect sizes representing the relationship between exposure to childhood adversity and dissociation were examined and integrated using a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: The results indicated that exposure to childhood trauma was associated with heightened dissociation across SMIs. Positive significant associations were also found between specific childhood adversities and dissociation, with aggregated effect sizes in the small-to-moderate range. CONCLUSION: These findings support calls for the routine assessment of traumatic experiences in clients with SMIs presenting with dissociative symptoms and the provision of adequate therapeutic support (e.g. trauma-focused therapies) to manage and resolve these difficulties.

Multiplex real-time RT-PCR assay for transfusion transmitted viruses in sero-negative allogeneic blood donors: an experience from Southern Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Blood transfusion safety commences with healthy donor recruitment. The threat of transfusion transmitted infections is greatly minimized by serological tools but not entirely eliminated. Recently, nucleic-acid testing for blood donor screening has virtually eliminated this jeopardy. METHODS: This prospective study was conducted from February 2015 to February 2016. Samples from seronegative donors were run on multiplex assay (Cobas, S-201 system platform, Roche) in a batch of six [MP-NAT]. In case of reactive pool, tests were run on every individual sample [IDNAT]. RESULTS: Of 16957 donors, 16836 (99.2%) were replacement donors and the remaining 121 (0.7%) were voluntary donors, with a mean age of 29.09 ± 7.04 years. After serologic screening of all 16957 donors, 955 (5.6%) were found to be reactive; 291(1.71%) were reactive for hepatitis-B surface antigen, 361 (2.12%) for antibody to hepatitis C virus (anti-HCV), 14 (0.08%) for antibody to human immunodeficiency virus, 287 (1.69%) for syphilis and 2 (0.01%) for malaria. 14 (0.08%) NAT reactive donors were identified after testing the 16002 seronegative donors, with an overall NAT yield of one reactivity out of 1143 blood donations; 10 donors for HBV-DNA (HBV NAT yield-1:1600) and remaining 4 for HCV-RNA (HCV-NAT yield-1:4000). None were HIV positive. CONCLUSION: NAT has improved the safety attributes in blood products. Although the positivity rate for NAT testing is low but in view of the high prevalence of transfusion transmitted infections in our country, we recommend the parallel use of both serology and NAT screening of all donated blood.

Optimized T-cell receptor-mimic chimeric antigen receptor T cells directed toward the intracellular Wilms Tumor 1 antigen.

CD19-directed chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cells are clinically effective in a limited set of leukemia patients. However, CAR T-cell therapy thus far has been largely restricted to targeting extracellular tumor-associated antigens (TAA). Herein, we report a T-cell receptor-mimic (TCRm) CAR, termed WT1-28z, that is reactive to a peptide portion of the intracellular onco-protein Wilms Tumor 1(WT1), as it is expressed on the surface of the tumor cell in the context of HLA-A*02:01. T cells modified to express WT1-28z specifically targeted and lysed HLA-A*02:01+ WT1+ tumors and enhanced survival of mice engrafted with HLA-A*02:01+, WT1+ leukemia or ovarian tumors. This in vivo functional validation of TCRm CAR T cells provides the proof-of-concept necessary to expand the range of TAA that can be effectively targeted for immunotherapy to include attractive intracellular targets, and may hold great potential to expand on the success of CAR T-cell therapy.

Pediatric tuberculosis drug market: an insider perspective on challenges and solutions.

Representative stakeholders were consulted on how they felt access to pediatric tuberculosis (TB) drugs could be improved. A key recommendation is the development of new child-friendly, adequately dosed formulations with a good shelf life in all climate zones. There is also an urgent need to improve the diagnosis and reporting of children with TB. Manufacturers of pediatric TB medications are to be incentivized through improved coordination among all stakeholders, with streamlined regulatory approvals and increased consumer education on drug and regimen guidelines. Finally, pooled procurement is advised to ensure sustained market supply against affordable prices.

Emergency thoracotomies in the largest trauma center in Denmark: 10 years' experience.

AIM: The aim of our study was to investigate the outcome in terms of 30-day survival and to determine whether preoperative factors could predict the outcome. METHODS: All patients who underwent an emergency thoracotomy (ET) during the period 2000 to 2009 were included. The patients were divided into two groups: emergency department thoracotomy and operating room thoracotomy. Data on demographics, mechanism of injury, intraoperative data, Injury Severity Scores (ISS), probability of survival, signs of life, transportation time, indications, and outcome were collected. RESULTS: Forty-four ETs were performed. The mechanisms of injury were penetrating in 28 (64%) and blunt in 16 (36%) cases. In the emergency department thoracotomy group, the survival was 45 versus 20% for penetrating and blunt trauma, respectively. The total survival was 33%. In the operating room thoracotomy group, the survival was 83%. The survivors had a significantly lower ISS and a higher calculated probability of survival. The calculated mean probability of survival was 44 and 84% in the emergency department thoracotomy and operating room thoracotomy groups, respectively. The actual survival was similar, with 33% in the emergency department thoracotomy group and 83% in the operating room thoracotomy group. CONCLUSIONS: The probability of survival and ISS are good predictors of survival in these patients and should be included in the future in order to make upcoming studies easier to compare. Patients with very high ISS or low probability of survival survived, justifying the procedure in our center.

Association analysis of 31 common polymorphisms with type 2 diabetes and its related traits in Indian sib pairs.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Evaluation of the association of 31 common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with fasting glucose, fasting insulin, HOMA-beta cell function (HOMA-ß), HOMA-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and type 2 diabetes in the Indian population. METHODS: We genotyped 3,089 sib pairs recruited in the Indian Migration Study from four cities in India (Lucknow, Nagpur, Hyderabad and Bangalore) for 31 SNPs in 24 genes previously associated with type 2 diabetes in European populations. We conducted within-sib-pair analysis for type 2 diabetes and its related quantitative traits. RESULTS: The risk-allele frequencies of all the SNPs were comparable with those reported in western populations. We demonstrated significant associations of CXCR4 (rs932206), CDKAL1 (rs7756992) and TCF7L2 (rs7903146, rs12255372) with fasting glucose, with ß values of 0.007 (p = 0.05), 0.01 (p = 0.01), 0.007 (p = 0.05), 0.01 (p = 0.003) and 0.08 (p = 0.01), respectively. Variants in NOTCH2 (rs10923931), TCF-2 (also known as HNF1B) (rs757210), ADAM30 (rs2641348) and CDKN2A/B (rs10811661) significantly predicted fasting insulin, with ß values of -0.06 (p = 0.04), 0.05 (p = 0.05), -0.08 (p = 0.01) and -0.08 (p = 0.02), respectively. For HOMA-IR, we detected associations with TCF-2, ADAM30 and CDKN2A/B, with ß values of 0.05 (p = 0.04), -0.07 (p = 0.03) and -0.08 (p = 0.02), respectively. We also found significant associations of ADAM30 (ß = -0.05; p = 0.01) and CDKN2A/B (ß = -0.05; p = 0.03) with HOMA-ß. THADA variant (rs7578597) was associated with type 2 diabetes (OR 1.5; 95% CI 1.04, 2.22; p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We validated the association of seven established loci with intermediate traits related to type 2 diabetes in an Indian population using a design resistant to population stratification.

Assessing association of common variation in the C1Q gene cluster with systemic lupus erythematosus.

Recent studies have tested genetic variation at the C1QA, C1QB and C1QC (complement component 1, q subcomponent, A chain, complement component 1, q subcomponent, B chain and complement component 1, q subcomponent, c chain) loci in relation to systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) risk. Evidence for a significant effect of C1Q locus gene polymorphisms on SLE predisposition remains unclear. We aimed to identify associations between common C1Q polymorphisms and SLE risk and serum C1q, C3 and C4 levels. We performed family-based association tests in 295 nuclear families with one affected proband. Tag-single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) ranging from 35.4 kb upstream of the C1QA gene to 28 kb downstream of the C1QB gene were selected to represent the entire C1Q gene locus. We performed transmission disequilibrium tests for affectation status and continuous traits, including C1q, C3 and C4 levels using family-based association tests (FBAT). There was no evidence for a significant role of C1Q locus gene polymorphisms in SLE risk predisposition. The strongest association was observed with a variant in the 3'UTR region of the C1QB gene (rs294223, P = 0.06). We found nominally significant associations with a second variant (rs7549888) in the 3'UTR region of the C1QB gene and C1q (P = 0.01), C3 (P = 0.004) and C4 levels (P = 0.01). In a large family-based association study of C1Q gene cluster polymorphisms no evidence for a genetic role of C1Q locus SNP in SLE risk predisposition was obtained in patients of European ancestry. This is in contrast to other cohorts, in which single variants associated with C1Q, C3 and C4 levels and nephritis have been studied and shown associations.

Gene variants influencing measures of inflammation or predisposing to autoimmune and inflammatory diseases are not associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: There are strong associations between measures of inflammation and type 2 diabetes, but the causal directions of these associations are not known. We tested the hypothesis that common gene variants known to alter circulating levels of inflammatory proteins, or known to alter autoimmune-related disease risk, influence type 2 diabetes risk. METHODS: We selected 46 variants: (1) eight variants known to alter circulating levels of inflammatory proteins, including those in the IL18, IL1RN, IL6R, MIF, PAI1 (also known as SERPINE1) and CRP genes; and (2) 38 variants known to predispose to autoimmune diseases, including type 1 diabetes. We tested the associations of these variants with type 2 diabetes using a meta-analysis of 4,107 cases and 5,187 controls from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium, the Diabetes Genetics Initiative, and the Finland-United States Investigation of NIDDM studies. We followed up associated variants (p < 0.01) in a further set of 3,125 cases and 3,596 controls from the UK. RESULTS: We found no evidence that inflammatory or autoimmune disease variants are associated with type 2 diabetes (at p

A common variant of the interleukin 6 receptor (IL-6r) gene increases IL-6r and IL-6 levels, without other inflammatory effects.

Interleukin-6 (IL-6) is a key inflammatory cytokine, signalling to most tissues by binding to a soluble IL-6 receptor (sIL-6r), making a complex with gp130. We used 1273 subjects (mean age 68 years) from the InCHIANTI Italian cohort to study common variation in the IL-6r locus and associations with interleukin 6 receptor (IL-6r), IL-6, gp130 and a battery of inflammatory markers. The rs4537545 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) tags the functional non-synonymous Asp358Ala variant (rs8192284) in IL-6r (r(2)=0.89, n=343). Individuals homozygous for the rs4537545 SNP minor allele (frequency 40%) had a doubling of IL-6r levels (132.48 pg/ml, 95% CI 125.13-140.27) compared to the common allele homozygous group (68.31 pg/ml, 95% CI 65.35-71.41): in per allele regression models, the rs4537545 SNP accounted for 20% of the variance in sIL-6r, with P=5.1 x 10(-62). The minor allele of rs4537545 was also associated with higher circulating IL-6 levels (P=1.9 x 10(-4)). There was no association of this variant with serum levels of gp130 or with any of the studied pro- and anti-inflammatory markers. A common variant of the IL-6r gene results in major changes in IL-6r and IL-6 serum levels, but with no apparent effect on gp130 levels or on inflammatory status in the general population.

Common genetic variation in the gene encoding interleukin-1-receptor antagonist (IL-1RA) is associated with altered circulating IL-1RA levels.

Interleukin-1-receptor antagonist (IL-1RA) modulates the biological activity of the proinflammatory cytokine interleukin-1 (IL-1) and could play an important role in the pathophysiology of inflammatory and metabolic traits. We genotyped seven single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that capture a large proportion of common genetic variation in the IL-1RN gene in 1256 participants from the Invecchiare in Chianti study. We identified five SNPs associated with circulating IL-1RA levels with varying degrees of significance (P-value range=0.016-4.9 x 10(-5)). We showed that this association is likely to be driven by one haplotype, most strongly tagged by rs4251961. This variant is only in weak linkage disequilibrium (r(2)=0.25) with a previously reported variable number of tandem repeats polymorphism (VNTR) in intron-2 although a second variant, rs579543, that tags the VNTR (r(2)=0.91), may also be independently associated with IL-1RA levels (P=0.03). We found suggestive evidence that the C allele at rs4251961 that lowers IL-1RA levels is associated with an increased IL-1beta (P=0.03) level and may also be associated with interferon -gamma (P=0.03), alpha-2 macroglobulin (P=0.008) and adiponectin (P=0.007) serum levels. In conclusion, common variation across the IL-1RN gene is strongly associated with IL-1RA levels.

Current procedures for bladder substitution and urinary diversion at King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre.

Following radical cystectomy for bladder cancer, 14 male patientts had a detubularized colic or ileocolic bladder substitute anastomosed to the membranous urethra and two female patients had urinary diversion to the valved and augmented rectum. There were no early deaths and the complication rate was low. The patients were followed for a mean of 12 months (2-28 months). During this short-term follow-up, no patients suffered deterioration of renal function or symptomatic urinary tract infection. Of the male patients, nine were perfectly continent, four had some incontinence during sleep, and one patient was incontinent day and night. Four had normal erections and three weak erections. Three have received penile implants, but it is too early to assess the need for this in the others. The two female patients were continent. Continent urinary diversion without a stoma appears to be a safe and reliable procedure, and patients should be offered one of these newer alternatives for replacement of the urinary bladder after cystectomy for cancer.