Examining the effectiveness of Gateway-an out-of-court community-based intervention to reduce recidivism and improve the health and well-being of young adults committing low-level offences: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Young adult offenders represent a third of the UK prison population and are at risk of poor health outcomes including drug and alcohol misuse, self-harm and suicide. Court diversion interventions aim to reduce the negative consequences of formal criminal justice sanctions and focus resources on addressing the root causes of offending. Although diversions are widely used, evidence of their effectiveness has not yet been established. Hampshire Constabulary, working together with local charities, have developed the Gateway programme, an out-of-court intervention aimed at improving the life chances of young adults. Issued as a conditional caution, participants undertake a health and social care needs assessment, attend workshops encouraging analysis of own behaviour and its consequences and agree not to re-offend during the 16-week caution. METHODS: This is a pragmatic, multi-site, parallel-group, superiority randomised controlled trial with a target sample size of 334. Participants are aged 18-24, reside in Hampshire and Isle of Wight and are being questioned for an eligible low-level offence. Police investigators offer potential participants a chance to receive the Gateway caution, and those interested are also invited to take part in the study. Police officers obtain Stage 1 consent and carry out an eligibility check, after which participants are randomised on a 1:1 basis either to receive Gateway or follow the usual process, such as court appearance or a different conditional caution. Researchers subsequently obtain Stage 2 consent and collect data at weeks 4 and 16, and 1 year post-randomisation. The primary outcome is the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (WEMWBS). Secondary outcomes include health status, alcohol and drug use, recidivism and resource use. The primary analysis will compare the WEMWBS score between the two groups at 12 months. DISCUSSION: This pioneering trial aims to address the evidence gap surrounding diversion in 18-24-year-olds. The findings will inform law enforcement agencies, third sector organisations, policymakers and commissioners, as well as researchers working in related fields and with vulnerable target populations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Register ( ISRCTN 11888938 ).

Do probiotics prevent antibiotic-associated diarrhoea? Results of a multicentre randomized placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic-associated diarrhoea (AAD) is a side-effect of antibiotic consumption and probiotics have been shown to reduce AAD. METHODS: A multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial was conducted to evaluate the role of Lactobacillus casei DN114001 (combined as a drink with two regular yoghurt bacterial strains) in reducing AAD and Clostridioides difficile infection in patients aged over 55 years. The primary outcome was the incidence of AAD during 2 weeks of follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 1127 patients (mean age ± standard deviation: 73.6 ± 10.5) were randomized to the active group (N = 549) or placebo group (N = 577). Both groups were followed up as per protocol. The proportion of patients experiencing AAD during follow-up was 19.3% (106/549) in the probiotic group vs 17.9% (103/577) in the placebo group (unadjusted odds ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval 0.82-1.49, P = 0.53). CONCLUSIONS: No significant evidence was found of a beneficial effect of the specific probiotic formulation in preventing AAD in this elderly population drawn from a number of different UK hospitals. However, in the UK and in many other healthcare systems there have, in recent years, been many changes in antibiotic stewardship policies, an overall decrease in incidence in C. difficile infection, as well as an increased awareness of infection prevention, and modifications in nursing practice. In light of these factors, it is impossible to conclude definitively from the current trial that the study-specific probiotic formulation has no role in preventing AAD, and it is our view that further trials may be indicated, controlling for these variables.

The assembly of "S3N"-ligands decorated with an azo-dye as potential sensors for heavy metal ions.

An "S3N-ligand azo-dye" conjugate has been synthesised with a view to the development of a sensor for heavy metal ions. Complexation of this system with Ag(i), Hg(ii) and Cu(ii) salts has been investigated and an X-ray structure has been obtained for a Hg(ii) complex. Complexation of the conjugated dye to these metals results in a bathochromic shift in the absorption maximum of the azo dye, an effect which is most pronounced for Cu(ii).

Routine screening for pain combined with a pain treatment protocol in head and neck cancer: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: We compared the effectiveness and cost of a pain screening and treatment program, with usual care in head and neck cancer patients with significant pain. METHODS: Patients were screened for the presence of pain and then randomly assigned to either an intervention group, consisting of a pain treatment protocol and an education program, or to usual care. Primary outcome was change in the Pain Severity Index (PSI) over three months. RESULTS: We screened 1074 patients of whom 156 were randomized to either intervention or usual care. Mean PSI was reduced over three months in both groups, with no significant difference between the two groups. The Pain Management Index (PMI) at three months, was significantly improved in the intervention group compared with usual care (P<0.001), as was Patient Satisfaction (mean difference in scores was statistically significant: -0.30 [-0.60 to -0.15]). All subjects reported clinically significant levels of anxiety and depression throughout the study. Treatment costs were significantly higher for intervention (mean=£400) compared with usual care (£200), with a low likelihood of being cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: There was no difference in the Pain Severity Index between the two groups. However there were significant improvements in the intervention group in patient satisfaction and PMI. The pain screening process itself was effective. Sufficient benefit was demonstrated as a result of the intervention to allow continued development of pain treatment pathways, rather than allowing pain treatment to be left to nonformalised ad hoc arrangements.

Aryne generation vs. Truce-Smiles and fries rearrangements during the Kobayashi fragmentation reaction: a new bi-aryl synthesis.

Treatment of (ortho-trimethysilyl)aryl phenylsulfonates with a soluble fluoride source initiates a Truce-Smiles rearrangement leading to the formation of functionalized bi-aryls. This new carbon-carbon bond-forming reaction proceeds without recourse to transition metal catalysis, under mild reaction conditions and with good functional group compatibility.

An orthogonal C-H borylation--cross-coupling strategy for the preparation of tetrasubstituted "A2B2"-chrysene derivatives with tuneable photophysical properties.

The regioselective, orthogonal functionalisation of 4,10-dichlorochrysene enables the synthesis of a variety of 2,8,4,10-"A2B2"-tetrasubstituted chrysenes. Such compounds exhibit broadened UV-vis absorption spectra, decreased band gap and higher HOMO levels compared to the parent chrysene.

Observational and cost analysis of the implementation of breast cancer sentinel node intraoperative molecular diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Accurate intraoperative sentinel lymph node (SLN) assessment enables axillary clearance to be completed immediately in node-positive breast cancer patients. This article reports a study of the introduction of intraoperative molecular SLN analysis in routine clinical practice in the Portsmouth Breast Care Centre. DESIGN: There was prospective analysis of 254 consecutive patients who underwent SLN biopsy in a single centre. Nodes were sectioned at 2 mm intervals and alternate slices were analysed using a CE-marked assay for mammaglobin (MG) and cytokeratin 19 (CK19). Remaining slices of node were sent for histological analysis, which included CK19 immunohistochemistry. While the assay was being carried out, the surgeon performed the breast tumour resection. The cost per patient was estimated retrospectively and the cost effects on the hospital and primary care trust for a typical service were also estimated. RESULTS: A total of 491 SLNs from 254 patients were evaluated. The intraoperative assay showed positivity of SLNs for metastatic cells in 78 patients. There was 100% detection of macrometastases within sentinel nodes analysed by GeneSearch. Overall concordance between histological status, including micrometastases and GeneSearch analysis, was 95% (sensitivity 96%, specificity 95%). The cost per procedure was increased for wide local excision with SLN biopsy and intraoperative assessment compared with other models, but fewer procedures were carried out. CONCLUSION: Intraoperative assessment of SLNs in breast cancer using a molecular assay is a safe, acceptable and accurate technique that allows a reduction in the frequency of delayed axillary clearance surgery. Take-up of this method may be hampered by perverse incentives operating within healthcare funding.

The Birmingham Rehabilitation Uptake Maximisation study (BRUM): a randomised controlled trial comparing home-based with centre-based cardiac rehabilitation.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the outcomes of home-based (using the Heart Manual) and centre-based cardiac rehabilitation programmes. DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial and parallel economic evaluation. SETTING: Predominantly inner-city, multi-ethnic population in the West Midlands, England. PATIENTS: 525 patients referred to four hospitals for cardiac rehabilitation following myocardial infarction or coronary revascularisation. INTERVENTIONS: A home-based cardiac rehabilitation programme compared with centre-based programmes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Smoking cessation, blood pressure (systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP)), total cholesterol (TC) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, psychological status (HADS anxiety and depression) and exercise capacity (incremental shuttle walking test, ISWT) measured at 12 months. Health service resource use, quality of life utility and costs were quantified. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in the main outcomes when the home-based was compared with the centre-based programme at 12 months. Adjusted mean difference (95% CI) for SBP was 1.94 mm Hg (-1.1 to 5.0); DBP 0.42 mm Hg (-1.25 to 2.1); TC 0.1 mmol/l (-0.05 to 0.24); HADS anxiety -0.02 (-0.69 to 0.65); HADS depression -0.35 (-0.95 to 0.25); distance on ISWT -21.5 m (-48.3 to 5.2). The relative risk of being a smoker in the home arm was 0.90. The cost per patient to the NHS was significantly higher in the home arm at 198 pounds, (95% CI 189 to 208) compared to 157 pounds (95% CI 139 to 175) in the centre-based arm. However when the patients' cost of travel was included, these differences were no longer significant. Conclusions A home-based cardiac rehabilitation programme does not produce inferior outcomes when compared to traditional centre-based programmes as provided in the United Kingdom.

Payment to healthcare professionals for patient recruitment to trials: systematic review and qualitative study.

OBJECTIVES: To review UK guidelines regarding the use of financial incentives for healthcare professionals to become involved in clinical trials, and to survey perceptions and current practice. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases were searched from inception to June 2006. Interviews were held with NHS healthcare professionals, research managers from the pharmaceutical industry and members of the public. REVIEW METHODS: From the searches, 634 identified studies were assessed for inclusion in the systematic review, but only three met the criteria for data extraction. Fifty-eight individuals were interviewed: 38 chief investigators, six non-research active clinicians, eight public and six pharmaceutical managers. Investigators were selected from those funded by the HTA Programme, the other by 'snowballing' and personal contact. RESULTS: The evidence from the literature was limited and inconclusive. In UK guidelines, the issues around payments to clinicians or patients were implied rather than stated, usually linked to discussion of conflict of interest and disclosure of any such conflicts. Developments in NHS research governance had led to increased transparency in all payments for research participation and for payments to be made to NHS Trusts rather than individual clinicians. While reimbursement of costs incurred by research was strongly supported by the interviewees, payments to incentivise recruitment were not. A code of practice was suggested for payments in publicly funded trials, which was closely linked to the principles of Good Clinical Practice in research. Factors such as interest in the topic, scope for patient benefit and good communication were considered more important than payment. Interviews with the general public indicated low levels of awareness of the existence of payments to clinicians linked to patient recruitment in trials, and unanimous support for full disclosure. Interviews with managers in the pharmaceutical industry showed greater familiarity with payments for research involvement. GPs were seen as the only group for whom scope existed for individual payments. Concerns were expressed by the pharmaceutical company interviewees at the rising cost of research and unnecessary bureaucracy. CONCLUSIONS: The ethical stances outlined in Good Clinical Practice in research were widely endorsed by the three groups interviewed. These allow reasonable payments to clinicians, subject to disclosure of any possible conflicts of interest. The potential for incentivising clinicians to recruit was limited as any payments should be based on the cost of inputs and should not be made to individuals but to their host organisation. NHS professionals were concerned that payments could damage the quality of research and also considered full disclosure to patients as challenging. Patients and members of the public favoured full disclosure and payment of expenses to patients involved in research. Pharmaceutical company interviewees viewed payment to the NHS for all research activities as normal and highly regulated. They complained that the prices charged were high and so variable that they required benchmarking. Considerable scope exists for compiling data on the factors that help and hinder the progress of clinical trials and also for experimenting with different incentives to encourage involvement in clinical research. Further research should focus on improved reporting of those organisational aspects of trials that are known to affect recruitment; retrospective analysis of the factors associated with different levels of recruitment to RCTs; prospective comparative research on trial recruitment; qualitative research on participants' experiences of being involved in different kinds of trials, and proposals to include within trials experiments with payments methods.

Aspirin in Alzheimer's disease (AD2000): a randomised open-label trial.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular risk factors and a history of vascular disease can increase the risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD is less common in aspirin users than non-users, and there are plausible biological mechanisms whereby aspirin might slow the progression of either vascular or Alzheimer-type pathology. We assessed the benefits of aspirin in patients with AD. METHODS: 310 community-resident patients who had AD and who had no potential indication or definite contraindication for aspirin were randomly assigned to receive open-label aspirin (n=156; one 75-mg enteric-coated tablet per day, to continue indefinitely) or to avoid aspirin (n=154). Primary outcome measures were cognition (assessed with the mini-mental state examination [MMSE]) and functional ability (assessed with the Bristol activities of daily living scale [BADLS]). Secondary outcomes were time to formal domiciliary or institutional care, progress of disability, behavioural symptoms, caregiver wellbeing, and care time. Patients were assessed at 12-week intervals in the first year and once each year thereafter. Analysis of the primary outcome measures was by intention to treat. This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN96337233. FINDINGS: Patients had a median age of 75 years; 156 patients had mild AD, 154 had moderate AD, and 18 had concomitant vascular dementia. Over the 3 years after randomisation, in patients who took aspirin, mean MMSE score was 0.10 points higher (95% CI -0.37 to 0.57; p=0.7) and mean BADLS score was 0.62 points lower (-1.37 to 0.13; p=0.11) than in patients assigned to aspirin avoidance. There were no obvious differences between the groups in any other outcome measurements. 13 (8%) patients on aspirin and two (1%) patients in the control group had bleeds that led to admission to hospital (relative risk=4.4, 95% CI 1.5-12.8; p=0.007); three (2%) patients in the aspirin group had fatal cerebral bleeds. INTERPRETATION: Although aspirin is commonly used in dementia, in patients with typical AD 2 years of treatment with low-dose aspirin has no worthwhile benefit and increases the risk of serious bleeds.

An assessment of the impact of the NHS Health Technology Assessment Programme.

OBJECTIVES: To consider how the impact of the NHS Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme should be measured. To determine what models are available and their strengths and weaknesses. To assess the impact of the first 10 years of the NHS HTA programme from its inception in 1993 to June 2003 and to identify the factors associated with HTA research that are making an impact. DATA SOURCES: Main electronic databases from 1990 to June 2005. The documentation of the National Coordinating Centre for Health Technology Assessment (NCCHTA). Questionnaires to eligible researchers. Interviews with lead investigators. Case study documentation. REVIEW METHODS: A literature review of research programmes was carried out, the work of the NCCHTA was reviewed, lead researchers were surveyed and 16 detailed case studies were undertaken. Each case study was written up using the payback framework. A cross-case analysis informed the analysis of factors associated with achieving payback. Each case study was scored for impact before and after the interview to assess the gain in information due to the interview. The draft write-up of each study was checked with each respondent for accuracy and changed if necessary. RESULTS: The literature review identified a highly diverse literature but confirmed that the 'payback' framework pioneered by Buxton and Hanney was the most widely used and most appropriate model available. The review also confirmed that impact on knowledge generation was more easily quantified than that on policy, behaviour or especially health gain. The review of the included studies indicated a higher level of impact on policy than is often assumed to occur. The survey showed that data pertinent to payback exist and can be collected. The completed questionnaires showed that the HTA Programme had considerable impact in terms of publications, dissemination, policy and behaviour. It also showed, as expected, that different parts of the Programme had different impacts. The Technology Assessment Reports (TARs) for the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) had the clearest impact on policy in the form of NICE guidance. Mean publications per project were 2.93 (1.98 excluding the monographs), above the level reported for other programmes. The case studies revealed the large diversity in the levels and forms of impacts and the ways in which they arise. All the NICE TARs and more than half of the other case studies had some impact on policy making at the national level whether through NICE, the National Screening Committee, the National Service Frameworks, professional bodies or the Department of Health. This underlines the importance of having a customer or 'receptor' body. A few case studies had very considerable impact in terms of knowledge production and in informing national and international policies. In some of these the principal investigator had prior expertise and/or a research record in the topic. The case studies confirmed the questionnaire responses but also showed how some projects led to further research. CONCLUSIONS: This study concluded that the HTA Programme has had considerable impact in terms of knowledge generation and perceived impact on policy and to some extent on practice. This high impact may have resulted partly from the HTA Programme's objectives, in that topics tend to be of relevance to the NHS and have policy customers. The required use of scientific methods, notably systematic reviews and trials, coupled with strict peer reviewing, may have helped projects publish in high-quality peer-reviewed journals. Further research should cover more detailed, comprehensive case studies, as well as enhancement of the 'payback framework'. A project that collated health research impact studies in an ongoing manner and analysed them in a consistent fashion would also be valuable.

The Birmingham Rehabilitation Uptake Maximisation Study (BRUM). Home-based compared with hospital-based cardiac rehabilitation in a multi-ethnic population: cost-effectiveness and patient adherence.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the relative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a home-based programme of cardiac rehabilitation using the Heart Manual, with centre-based programmes. It also sought to explore the reasons for non-adherence to cardiac rehabilitation programmes. DESIGN: An individually randomised trial, with minimisation for age, gender, ethnicity, initial diagnosis and hospital of recruitment. Participants were followed up after 6, 12 and 24 months by questionnaire and clinical assessment. Individual semistructured interviews were undertaken in the homes of a purposive sample of patients who did not adhere to their allocated programme, and focus groups were undertaken with groups of patients who adhered to the programmes. SETTING: Four hospitals in predominantly inner-city, multi-ethnic, socio-economically deprived areas of the West Midlands in England, for 2 years from 1 February 2002. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 525 patients who had experienced a myocardial infarction (MI) or coronary revascularisation within the previous 12 weeks. INTERVENTIONS: All the rehabilitation programmes included exercise, relaxation, education and lifestyle counselling. All patients were seen by a cardiac rehabilitation nurse prior to hospital discharge and provided with information about their condition and counselling about risk factor modification. The four centre-based programmes varied in length from nine sessions at weekly intervals of education, relaxation and circuit training to 24 individualised sessions over 12 weeks of mainly walking, fixed cycling and rowing with group-based education. The home-based programme consisted of an appropriate version of the Heart Manual, home visits and telephone contact. The Heart Manual was introduced to patients on an individual basis, either in hospital or on a home visit. Home visits by a nurse took place at approximately 1, 6 and 12 weeks after recruitment, with a telephone call at 3 weeks. At the final visit, patients were encouraged to maintain their lifestyle changes and to continue with their exercise programme. Where needed, follow-up was made by a rehabilitation nurse who spoke Punjabi. An audiotape of an abridged version of the Heart Manual in Punjabi accompanied the manual for patients with a limited command of English. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were smoking cessation, blood pressure, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, exercise capacity measured by the incremental shuttle walking test and psychological status measured by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Secondary outcomes included self-reported diet, physical activity, cardiac symptoms and quality of life. Health service resource use and costs of rehabilitation programmes from health service and societal perspectives were also measured. Adherence to the physical activity element of the rehabilitation programmes was measured by questionnaire 6, 9 and 12 weeks. RESULTS: No clinically or statistically significant differences were found in any of the primary or secondary outcome measures between the home- and centre-based groups. Significant improvements in total cholesterol, smoking prevalence, the HADS anxiety score, self-reported physical activity and diet were seen in both arms between baseline and the 6-month follow-up. Five or more contacts with a cardiac rehabilitation nurse were received by 96% of home-based participants, whereas only 56% of centre-based participants attended this many rehabilitation classes. The direct rehabilitation costs to the health service were significantly higher for the home-based programme (mean cost 198 pounds versus 157 pounds for the centre-based programme), but when patient costs were included the mean cost of the centre-based arm rose to 182 pounds. Patients' reasons for not taking up or adhering to cardiac rehabilitation were multifactorial and very individual. Other health problems limited some patients' ability to exercise. Most non-adherers found some aspects of their cardiac rehabilitation programme helpful. Many had adapted advice on rehabilitation and were continuing to exercise in other ways and had made lifestyle changes, particularly to their diet. The home-based patients' lack of motivation to exercise on their own at home was a major factor in non-adherence. The focus groups revealed little diversity of views among patients from each programme. Patients in the hospital programme enjoyed the camaraderie of group exercise and the home-based patients valued the wealth of information and advice in the Heart Manual. CONCLUSIONS: A home-based cardiac rehabilitation programme for low- to moderate-risk patients does not produce inferior outcomes compared with the traditional centre-based programmes. With the level of home visiting in this trial, the home-based programme was more costly to the health service, but with the difference in costs borne by patients attending centre-based programmes. Different reasons were given by home and hospital cardiac rehabilitation patients for not taking up or adhering to cardiac rehabilitation, with home-based patients often citing a lack of motivation to exercise at home. Social characteristics, individual patient needs and the location of cardiac rehabilitation programmes need to be taken into account in programme design to maximise participation. Research is recommended into cardiac rehabilitation in patients from ethnic minority groups; measurement tools to assess physical activity and dietary change; evaluating the Heart Manual in patients who decline centre-based cardiac rehabilitation; the implementation of home-based programmes in the UK; and strategies that sustain physical activity in the long term.

Screening versus routine practice in detection of atrial fibrillation in patients aged 65 or over: cluster randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether screening improves the detection of atrial fibrillation (cluster randomisation) and to compare systematic and opportunistic screening. DESIGN: Multicentred cluster randomised controlled trial, with subsidiary trial embedded within the intervention arm. SETTING: 50 primary care centres in England, with further individual randomisation of patients in the intervention practices. PARTICIPANTS: 14,802 patients aged 65 or over in 25 intervention and 25 control practices. INTERVENTIONS: Patients in intervention practices were randomly allocated to systematic screening (invitation for electrocardiography) or opportunistic screening (pulse taking and invitation for electrocardiography if the pulse was irregular). Screening took place over 12 months in each practice from October 2001 to February 2003. No active screening took place in control practices. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Newly identified atrial fibrillation. RESULTS: The detection rate of new cases of atrial fibrillation was 1.63% a year in the intervention practices and 1.04% in control practices (difference 0.59%, 95% confidence interval 0.20% to 0.98%). Systematic and opportunistic screening detected similar numbers of new cases (1.62% v 1.64%, difference 0.02%, -0.5% to 0.5%). CONCLUSION: Active screening for atrial fibrillation detects additional cases over current practice. The preferred method of screening in patients aged 65 or over in primary care is opportunistic pulse taking with follow-up electrocardiography. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN19633732 [controlled-trials.com].

A systematic review and economic evaluation of epoetin alpha, epoetin beta and darbepoetin alpha in anaemia associated with cancer, especially that attributable to cancer treatment.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of epoetin alpha, epoetin beta and darbepoetin alpha (referred to collectively in this report as epo) in anaemia associated with cancer, especially that attributable to cancer treatment. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases were searched from 2000 (1996 in the case of darbepoetin alpha) to September 2004. REVIEW METHODS: Using a recently published Cochrane review as the starting point, a systematic review of recent randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing epo with best standard was conducted. Inclusion, quality assessment and data abstraction were undertaken in duplicate. Where possible, meta-analysis was employed. The economic assessment consisted of a systematic review of past economic evaluations, an assessment of economic models submitted by the manufacturers of the three epo agents and development of a new individual sampling model (the Birmingham epo model). RESULTS: In total 46 RCTs were included within this systematic review, 27 of which had been included in the Cochrane systematic review. All 46 trials compared epo plus supportive care for anaemia (including transfusions), with supportive care for anaemia (including transfusions), alone. Haematological response (defined as an improvement by 2 g/dl(-1)) had a relative risk of 3.4 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.0 to 3.8, 22 RCTs] with a response rate for epo of 53%. The trial duration was most commonly 16-20 weeks. There was little statistical heterogeneity in the estimate of haematological response, and there were no important differences between the subgroups examined. Haemoglobin (Hb) change showed a weighted mean difference of 1.63 g/dl(-1) (95% CI 1.46 to 1.80) in favour of epo. Treatment with erythropoietin in patients with cancer-induced anaemia reduces the number of patients who receive a red blood cell transfusion (RBCT) by an estimated 18%. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data were analysed using vote counting and qualitative assessment and a positive effect was observed in favour of an improved HRQoL for patients on epo. Published information on side-effects was of poor quality. New trials provided further evidence of side-effects with epo, particularly thrombic events, but it is still unclear whether these could be accounted for by chance alone. The results of the previous Cochrane review had suggested a survival advantage for epo (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.02), based on 19 RCTs. The update, based on 28 RCTs, suggests no difference (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.21). Subgroup analysis suggested some explanations for this heterogeneity, but it is difficult to draw firm conclusions without access to the substantial amounts of missing or unpublished data, or more detailed results from some of the trials with heterogeneous patient populations. The conclusions are, however, broadly in line with those of a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety briefing, which recommended that patients with a haemoglobin above 12 g/dl(-1) should not be treated; the target rate of rise in Hb should not be too great, and further carefully conducted trials are required to determine which subgroups of patients may be harmed by the use of these products, in particular through the stimulation of tumour activity. Five published economic evaluations identified from the literature had inconsistent results, with estimates ranging from a cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) under pound 10,000 through to epo being less effective and more costly than standard care. The more favourable evaluations assumed a survival advantage for epo. The three company models submitted each relied on assumed survival gains to achieve relatively low cost per QALY, from pound 13,000 to pound 28,000, but generated estimates from pound 84,000 to pound 159,000 per QALY when no survival gain was assumed. Each of these models relied on Hb levels alone driving utility, and each assumed gradual normalisation of Hb in the standard treatment arm after the end of treatment. The Birmingham epo model followed the company models in regard to the relationship between Hb levels and utility, and also assumed normalisation in the base case. With no survival gain, the incremental cost per QALY was pound 150,000, falling to pound 40,000 when the lower, more favourable, confidence interval for survival was used. CONCLUSIONS: Epo is effective in improving haematological response and reducing RBCT requirements, and appears to have a positive effect on HRQoL. The incidence of side-effects and effects on survival remains highly uncertain. However, if there is no impact on survival, it seems highly unlikely that epo would be considered a cost-effective use of healthcare resources. The main target for further research should be improving estimates of impact on survival, initially through more detailed secondary research, such as the individual patient data meta-analysis started by the Cochrane group. Further trials may be required, and have been recommended by the FDA, although many trials are in progress, completed but unreported or awaiting mature follow-up. The Birmingham epo model developed as part of this project contains new features that improve its flexibility in exploring different scenarios; further refinement and validation would therefore be of assistance. Finally, further research to resolve uncertainty about other parameters, particularly quality of life, adverse events, and the rate of normalisation, would also be beneficial.

A brief pain management program compared with physical therapy for low back pain: results from an economic analysis alongside a randomized clinical trial.

OBJECTIVE: Guidelines for the management of acute low back pain in primary care recommend early intervention to address psychosocial risk factors associated with long-term disability. We assessed the cost utility and cost effectiveness of a brief pain management program (BPM) targeting psychosocial factors compared with physical therapy (PT) for primary care patients with low back pain of <12 weeks' duration. METHODS: A total of 402 patients were randomly assigned to BPM or PT. We adopted a health care perspective, examining the direct health care costs of low back pain. Outcome measures were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and 12-month change scores on the Roland and Morris disability questionnaire. Resource use data related to back pain were collected at 12-month followup. Cost effectiveness was expressed as incremental ratios, with uncertainty assessed using cost-effectiveness planes and acceptability curves. RESULTS: There were no statistically significant differences in mean health care costs or outcomes between treatments. PT had marginally greater effectiveness at 12 months, albeit with greater health care costs (BPM 142 pounds, PT 195 pounds). The incremental cost-per-QALY ratio was 2,362 pounds. If the UK National Health Service were willing to pay 10,000 pound per additional QALY, there is only a 17% chance that BPM provides the best value for money. CONCLUSION: PT is a cost-effective primary care management strategy for low back pain. However, the absence of a clinically superior treatment program raises the possibility that BPM could provide an additional primary care approach, administered in fewer sessions, allowing patient and doctor preferences to be considered.

Measuring bidirectional mutation.

The estimation of mutation rates is usually based on a model in which mutations are rare independent Poisson events. Back-mutation of mutants, an even rarer event, is ignored. In the hypermutating B cells of the immune system, mutation between phenotypes exhibiting, vs. not exhibiting, surface immunoglobulin is common in both directions. We develop three strategies for the estimation of mutation rates under circumstances such as these, where mutation rates in both directions are estimated simultaneously. Our model for the growth of a cell culture departs from the classical assumption of cell division as a memoryless (Poisson) event; we model cell division as giving rise to sequential generations of cells. On this basis, a Monte-Carlo simulation is developed. We develop also a numerical approach to calculating the probability distribution for the proportion of mutants in each culture as a function of forward- and backward-mutation rates. Although both approaches are too computationally intensive for routine laboratory use, they provide the insight necessary to develop and evaluate a third, 'hand-calculator' approach to extracting mutation rate estimators from experiments of this type.

A review of health care models for coronary heart disease interventions.

This article reviews models for the treatment of coronary heart disease (CHD). Whereas most of the models described were developed to assess the cost effectiveness of different treatment strategies, other models have also been used to extrapolate clinical trials, for capacity and resource planning, or to predict the future population with heart disease. In this paper we investigate the use of modelling techniques in relation to different types of health intervention, and we discuss the assumptions and limitations of these approaches. Many of the models reviewed in this paper use decision tree models for acute or short term interventions, and Markov or state transition models for chronic or long term interventions. Discrete event simulation has, however, been used for more complex whole system models, and for modelling resource-constrained interventions and operational planning. Nearly all of the studies in our review used cohort-based models rather than population based models, and therefore few models could estimate the likely total costs and benefits for a population group. Most studies used de novo purpose built models consisting of only a small number of health states. Models of the whole disease system were less common. The model descriptions were often incomplete. We recommend that the reporting of model structure, assumptions and input parameters is more explicit, to reduce the risk of biased reporting and ensure greater confidence in the model results.