Predicting risk of tracheostomy after cardiac surgery: a decade of insights from nearly 10,000 patients.

Objective: Studies have shown that requiring tracheostomy following cardiac surgery has significant implications on outcomes. This study proposes a risk stratification model to predict the likelihood of requiring a tracheostomy after cardiac surgery. Methods: Patients who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2019 were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank test were used to estimate and compare survival between cohorts. A prediction model for the need for postoperative tracheostomy was developed with logistic regression combined with undersampling analysis. Results: A total of 9849 patients underwent cardiac surgery, and 176 (1.8%) required postoperative tracheostomy. Tracheostomy patients were older (mean age 68.4 ± 12.3 vs 65.9 ± 11.2 years; P < 0.01) and more likely female (43.8% vs 28.5%; P < 0.01). Predictors for requiring tracheostomy included hypertension (odds ratio [OR] 1.91; P = 0.05), New York Heart Association III/IV (OR 2.68; P < 0.001), chronic lung disease (OR 3.27; P < 0.001), and history of prior myocardial infarction (OR 3.32; P < 0.001). Three-year Kaplan-Meier survival was worse in patients who received tracheostomy (log-rank P < 0.001). Conclusions: A risk prediction model for requiring tracheostomy after cardiac surgery is proposed in this study. A history of New York Heart Association III/IV, chronic lung disease, and myocardial infarction as well as undergoing valve surgeries were associated with increased risk of requiring a tracheostomy.

Multimorbidity Patterns, Hospital Uses and Mortality by Race and Ethnicity Among Oldest-Old Patients.

BACKGROUNDS: Adults aged 85 years and older ("oldest-old") are perceived as survivors resilient to age-related risk factors. Although considerable heterogeneity has been often observed in this population, less is known about the unmet needs in health and healthcare service utilization for diverse patients in healthcare systems. We examined racial-ethnic variation in patterns of multimorbidity associated with emergency department (ED), clinic visits, and mortality among the oldest-old patients with multimorbidity. METHODS: Administrative and clinical data from an integrated healthcare system for five years included 25,801 oldest-old patients with two or more chronic conditions. Hierarchical cluster analysis identified patterns of multimorbidity by four racial-ethnic groups (White, Black, Hispanic, & Other). Clusters associated with ED and clinic visits, and mortality were analyzed using generalized estimation equations and proportional hazards survival model, respectively. RESULTS: Hypothyroidism, Alzheimer's disease and related dementia, bone & joint conditions, metabolism syndrome, and pulmonary-vascular clusters were commonly observed across the groups. While most clusters were significantly associated with ED and clinic visits among White patients, bone & joint conditions cluster was the most significantly associated with ED and clinic visits among Black (RR = 1.32, p <.01 for ED; RR = 1.67, p <.0001 for clinic) and Hispanic patients (RR = 1.36, p <.0001 for ED; RR = 1.39, p <.0001 for clinic). Similar patterns were observed in the relationship between multimorbidity clusters and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of multimorbidity and its significant association with the uses of ambulatory and emergency care varied by race-ethnicity. More studies are needed to explore barriers when minoritized patients are faced with the use of hospital services.

Impact of improving severity of secondary mitral regurgitation on survival.

AIMS: Secondary mitral regurgitation (SMR) is frequent in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and portends detrimental prognosis. Despite interventions addressing the mitral valve (MV) have been proven effective to improve survival, an important knowledge gap exists regarding the role of medical therapy (MT) in this context. Thus, we aimed at investigating the role of MT optimization in patients with SMR and HFrEF. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 435 patients with SMR and HFrEF were retrospectively evaluated. Of those, 158 with severe SMR were finally included, with 63 (40%) managed with MT alone and 96 (60%) with MV intervention plus MT. Echocardiography was performed after 30 days of MT optimization or MV intervention. Responders were patients with a final mitral regurgitation (MR) grade of ≤2+. Survival data were gathered through the National Database Index and patient chart review. MR severity improved in 131 patients (100% MV intervention; 57% MT) but stayed the same or worsened in 27 patients. Responders and non-responders were similar for baseline characteristics. Overall, long-term survival of responders was significantly higher than non-responders [hazard ratio (HR) 0.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.32-0.96), P = 0.032]. No difference in survival was observed when evaluated by intervention type in the overall population (MT alone, n = 63; MV intervention plus MT, n = 95) [HR 0.77, 95% CI (0.48-1.26), P = 0.3], nor within responder group (MT alone, n = 36; MV intervention plus MT, n = 95) [HR 1.03, 95% CI (0.56-1.89), P = 0.94]. CONCLUSIONS: MT reduces SMR severity in 57% of the patients with severe SMR. A final SMR grade of ≤2+ is linked to improved survival, independently of the type of treatment they receive.

Outcomes of redo operations after the Ross procedure.

BACKGROUND: The Ross procedure is not commonly performed, owing to the procedural complexity and the risk of autograft and/or homograft reoperation. This study examined outcomes of patients undergoing Ross reinterventions at a dedicated Ross center. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 225 consecutive patients who underwent a Ross procedure between 1994 and 2019. Index and redo operation characteristics and outcomes were compared between patients with and those without redo operations. Multivariate analysis was used to identify independent predictors of Ross-related reinterventions. Survival was estimated with Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: Sixty-six patients (29.3%) required redo Ross surgery, 41 patients (18.2%) underwent autograft reoperation only, 8 patients (3.6%) had a homograft reintervention, and 17 patients (7.6%) had both autograft and homograft reoperations (12 as a combined procedure and 5 as sequential procedures). The mean time to reintervention was 11 ± 6 years for autograft reoperations and 12 ± 7 years for homograft reoperations. Patients who underwent Ross-related reinterventions were younger (mean, 38 ± 11 years vs 43 ± 11 years; P < .01) and had a higher rate of New York Heart Association class III/IV (56% vs 38%; P = .02) at the index Ross procedure. Most patients undergoing autograft reintervention had aortic insufficiency and/or aneurysm (98.2%; 57 of 58). The primary reason for homograft reintervention was pulmonary stenosis (92%; 23 of 25). The operative mortality of Ross reintervention was 1.5% (1 of 66). Survival at 15 years was similar in patients who required a redo operation and those who did not (91.2% vs 93.9%; P = .23). CONCLUSIONS: Ross reinterventions can be performed safely and maintain patients at the normal life expectancy restored by the index Ross procedure up to 15 years at experienced centers.

Outcomes of aortic root enlargement during isolated aortic valve replacement.

OBJECTIVES: Aortic root enlargement (ARE) lowers the risk of patient prosthesis mismatch after surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) in patients with small annular size. Whether ARE is associated with increased operative mortality is controversial. This study compares the early and intermediate outcomes in patients undergoing SAVR with and without ARE. METHODS: All patients undergoing isolated SAVR with and without ARE from 2015 to 2020 were analyzed. Propensity-matching was used to adjust for possible confounding variables. Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank test were used to estimate and compare overall outcomes and survival in the study cohorts. RESULTS: Among 868 isolated SAVRs, ARE was performed in 54 (6.2%) patients. Before matching, mean age was similar but female sex (67.4% vs. 29.6%; SD: -0.82) and previous AVR (18.9% vs. 3.9%; SD: -0.48) were more common in patients undergoing SAVR + ARE versus SAVR alone. A bovine pericardial patch was used for 81.5% (44 of 54) of ARE, with a Dacron patch in the rest. After propensity matching, the average cardiopulmonary bypass (138.2 ± 34.9 vs. 102.9 ± 33.0 min; p < 0.01) and cross-clamp times (113.8 ± 26.7 vs. 83.0 ± 28.4 min; p < 0.01) were longer in the SAVR + ARE group. There were no significant differences in postoperative stroke, new-onset dialysis, pacemaker placement, reoperation for bleeding, length of hospital stay, or 30-day readmission. Thirty-day mortality (0% vs. 0.6%, p = 1.0) and 5-year survival (96.3% vs. 95.7%, p = 0.86) were also similar. CONCLUSIONS: ARE during surgical AVR can be safely performed without an increase in complications with excellent early and intermediate-term survival.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for respiratory failure in phases of COVID-19 variants.

BACKGROUND: Adaptive mutations of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) virus have emerged throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The characterization of outcomes in patients requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) for severe respiratory distress from COVID-19 during the peak prevalence of different variants is not well known. METHODS: There were 131 patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection supported by ECMO at two referral centers within a large healthcare system. Three predominant variant phase time windows (Pre-Alpha, Alpha, and Delta) were determined by a change-point analyzer based on random population sampling and viral genome sequencing. Patient demographics and outcomes were compared. RESULTS: The average age of patients was 46.9 ± 10.5 years and 70.2% (92/131) were male. Patients cannulated for ECMO during the Delta variant wave were younger compared to earlier Pre-Alpha (39.3 ± 7.8 vs. 48.0 ± 11.1 years) and Alpha phases (39.3 ± 7.8 vs. 47.2 ± 7.7 years) (p < .01). The predominantly affected race in the Pre-Alpha phase was Hispanic (52.2%; 47/90), while in Alpha (61.5%; 16/26) and Delta (40%; 6/15) variant waves, most patients were White (p < .01). Most patients received a tracheostomy (82.4%; 108/131) with a trend toward early intervention in later phases compared to Pre-Alpha (p < .01). There was no significant difference between the duration of ECMO, mechanical support, intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS), or hospital LOS over the three variant phases. The in-hospital mortality was overall 41.5% (54/131) and was also similar. Six-month survival of patients who survived to discharge was 92.2% (71/77). CONCLUSIONS: There was no significant difference in survival or time on ECMO support in patients during the peak prevalence of the three variants.

Application of spatio-temporal model to estimate burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors in Iran 1990 - 2013.

BACKGROUND: Identifying the burden of disease and its inequality between geographical regions is an important issue to study health priorities. Estimating burden of diseases using statistical models is inevitable especially in the context of rare data availability. To this purpose, the spatio-temporal model can provide a statistically sound approach for explaining the response variable observed over a region and various times. However, there are some methodological challenges in analysis of these complex data. Our primary objective is to provide some remedies to overcome these challenges. METHOD: Data from nationally representative surveys and systematic reviews have been gathered across contiguous areal units over a period of more than 20 years (1990 - 2013). Generally, observations of areal units are spatially and temporally correlated in such a way that observations closer in space and time tend to be more correlated than observations farther away. It is critical to determine the correlation structure in space-time process which has been observed over a set of irregular regions. Moreover, these data sets are subject to high percentage of missing, including misaligned areal units, areas with small sample size, and may have nonlinear trends over space and time. Furthermore, the Gaussian assumption might be overly restrictive to represent the data. In this setting, the traditional statistical techniques are not appropriate and more flexible and comprehensive methodology is required. Particularly, we focus on approaches that allow extending spatio-temporal models proposed previously in the literature.Since statistical models include both continuous and categorical outcomes, we assume a latent variable framework for describing the underlying structure in mixed outcomes and use a conditionally autoregressive (CAR) prior for the random effects.  In addition, we will employ misalignment modeling to combine incompatible areal units between data sources and/or over the years to obtain a unified clear picture of population health status over this period.  In order to take parameter uncertainties into account, we pursue a Bayesian sampling-based inference. Hence, a hierarchical Bayes approach is constructed to model the data. The hierarchical structure enables us to "borrow information" from neighboring areal units to improve estimates for areas with missing values and small number of observations. For their general applicability and ease of implementation, the MCMC methods are the most adapted tool to perform Bayesian inference. CONCLUSION: This study aims to combine different available data sources and produce precise and reliable evidences for Iranian burden of diseases and risk factors and their disparities among geographical regions over time. Providing appropriate statistical methods and models for analyzing the data is undoubtedly crucial to circumvent the problems and obtain satisfactory estimates of model parameters and reach accurate assessment.