Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation site networks under climate change: accounting for uncertainty.

We forecasted potential impacts of climate change on the ability of a network of key sites for bird conservation (Important Bird Areas; IBAs) to provide suitable climate for 370 bird species of current conservation concern in two Asian biodiversity hotspots: the Eastern Himalaya and Lower Mekong. Comparable studies have largely not accounted for uncertainty, which may lead to inappropriate conclusions. We quantified the contribution of four sources of variation (choice of general circulation models, emission scenarios and species distribution modelling methods and variation in species distribution data) to uncertainty in forecasts and tested if our projections were robust to these uncertainties. Declines in the availability of suitable climate within the IBA network by 2100 were forecast as 'extremely likely' for 45% of species, whereas increases were projected for only 2%. Thus, we predict almost 24 times as many 'losers' as 'winners'. However, for no species was suitable climate 'extremely likely' to be completely lost from the network. Considerable turnover (median = 43%, 95% CI = 35-69%) in species compositions of most IBAs were projected by 2100. Climatic conditions in 47% of IBAs were projected as 'extremely likely' to become suitable for fewer priority species. However, no IBA was forecast to become suitable for more species. Variation among General Circulation Models and Species Distribution Models contributed most to uncertainty among forecasts. This uncertainty precluded firm conclusions for 53% of species and IBAs because 95% confidence intervals included projections of no change. Considering this uncertainty, however, allows robust recommendations concerning the remaining species and IBAs. Overall, while the IBA network will continue to sustain bird conservation, climate change will modify which species each site will be suitable for. Thus, adaptive management of the network, including modified site conservation strategies and facilitating species' movement among sites, is critical to ensure effective future conservation.

Foraging technique and prey-handling time in black-necked stork (Ephippiorhynchus asiaticus).

The foraging technique and prey-handling time of the black-necked stork (Ephippiorhynchus asiaticus) was studied in Dudhwa National Park, India, from January 1996 to June 1997. The habitat in which the storks foraged played an important role in selecting a particular technique to procure food. Black-necked storks mostly foraged using a tactile technique (>90%), but sometimes foraged visually. When the water level was estimated to be less than 60 cm, the storks foraged using tactile techniques. There was no difference in the feeding techniques of male and female storks. Foraging attempt rates varied between the sexes in summer (May) and during late winter (February) in 1997. The search time for prey increased when the water level was high and fish were widely distributed. Decreases in water level resulted in concentration offish in certain areas and this contributed to high fish-catching rates by black-necked storks. Males had a higher success rate offish capture than females. However, females captured longer fish than males. Prey-handling time increased in both sexes as fish length increased. Fish 4-6 cm long were most frequently taken by the foraging storks.

Prevalence and diversity of avian hematozoan parasites in Asia: a regional survey.

Tissue samples from 699 birds from three regions of Asia (Myanmar, India, and South Korea) were screened for evidence of infection by avian parasites in the genera Plasmodium and Haemoproteus. Samples were collected from November 1994 to October 2004. We identified 241 infected birds (34.0%). Base-on-sequence data for the cytochrome b gene from 221 positive samples, 34 distinct lineages of Plasmodium, and 41 of Haemoproteus were detected. Parasite diversity was highest in Myanmar followed by India and South Korea. Parasite prevalence differed among regions but not among host families. There were four lineages of Plasmodium and one of Haemoproteus shared between Myanmar and India and only one lineage of Plasmodium shared between Myanmar and South Korea. No lineages were shared between India and South Korea, although an equal number of distinct lineages were recovered from each region. Migratory birds in South Korea and India originate from two different migratory flyways; therefore cross-transmission of parasite lineages may be less likely. India and Myanmar shared more host species and habitat types compared to South Korea. Comparison between low-elevation habitat in India and Myanmar showed a difference in prevalence of haematozoans.

Global phylogeographic limits of Hawaii's avian malaria.

The introduction of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) to Hawaii has provided a model system for studying the influence of exotic disease on naive host populations. Little is known, however, about the origin or the genetic variation of Hawaii's malaria and traditional classification methods have confounded attempts to place the parasite within a global ecological and evolutionary context. Using fragments of the parasite mitochondrial gene cytochrome b and the nuclear gene dihydrofolate reductase-thymidylate synthase obtained from a global survey of greater than 13000 avian samples, we show that Hawaii's avian malaria, which can cause high mortality and is a major limiting factor for many species of native passerines, represents just one of the numerous lineages composing the morphological parasite species. The single parasite lineage detected in Hawaii exhibits a broad host distribution worldwide and is dominant on several other remote oceanic islands, including Bermuda and Moorea, French Polynesia. The rarity of this lineage in the continental New World and the restriction of closely related lineages to the Old World suggest limitations to the transmission of reproductively isolated parasite groups within the morphological species.

Prevalence and evolutionary relationships of haematozoan parasites in native versus introduced populations of common myna Acridotheres tristis.

The success of introduced species is frequently explained by their escape from natural enemies in the introduced region. We tested the enemy release hypothesis with respect to two well studied blood parasite genera (Plasmodium and Haemoproteus) in native and six introduced populations of the common myna Acridotheres tristis. Not all comparisons of introduced populations to the native population were consistent with expectations of the enemy release hypothesis. Native populations show greater overall parasite prevalence than introduced populations, but the lower prevalence in introduced populations is driven by low prevalence in two populations on oceanic islands (Fiji and Hawaii). When these are excluded, prevalence does not differ significantly. We found a similar number of parasite lineages in native populations compared to all introduced populations. Although there is some evidence that common mynas may have carried parasite lineages from native to introduced locations, and also that introduced populations may have become infected with novel parasite lineages, it may be difficult to differentiate between parasites that are native and introduced, because malarial parasite lineages often do not show regional or host specificity.