RESUMO
The friction coefficient between the tire and the road is one of the key parameters affecting road traffic safety. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the risk of skidding for the vehicles due to the friction evolution caused by the traffic polishing in the horizontal curve. Based on the reliability theory, an innovative dynamic risk assessment model is developed in the present study for passenger cars and trucks. The influence of two traffic characteristics for pavement friction is quantified: cumulative traffic volume (CTV) and annual average daily traffic of trucks (AADTT). The speed distribution on the horizontal curve of the motorway is obtained through field experiments as the basic parameter of the model. The Hasofer-Lind Method is adopted to solve the reliability and the risk probability of vehicle skidding. The results show that in the traffic characteristics, the AADTT has a significant impact on the pavement friction; When the AADTT on the road exceeds 2000 veh/d, the increasing CTV leads to friction decrease rapidly and therefore has a significant impact on the risk of horizontal curve. Especially for roads with more than 50 million vehicles of the CTV, the risk of the horizontal curve shows a sharp increase with CTV rising. The research results can provide reference for the road maintenance department to determine the timing of road maintenance.