Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors: are they ready for prime time in the management of lupus nephritis?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Lupus nephritis is a common complication of systemic lupus erythematosus and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The utility of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors in the management of lupus nephritis is currently uncertain. Here, we summarize the rationale for their use among patient with lupus nephritis. RECENT FINDINGS: SGLT2 inhibitors were initially developed as antihyperglycemic agents. They have since been shown to have additional, profound effects to slow the progression of chronic kidney disease and lessen the long-term risks of cardiovascular disease in large clinic trials of patients with chronic kidney disease, with and without diabetes, as well as in patients with and without proteinuria. Patients with recent exposure to immunosuppression were excluded from these trials due to concern for risk of infection. In the few, small trials of patients with lupus nephritis, SGLT2 inhibitors were found to be well tolerated. They have been shown to reduce proteinuria and to have modest beneficial effects on blood pressure and BMI among patients with lupus nephritis. They have not been shown to influence disease activity. SUMMARY: SGLT2 inhibitors may have a role in mitigating the chronic renal and cardiovascular effects of lupus nephritis. They should be introduced after kidney function has been stabilized with appropriate immunosuppression, in conjunction with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers. They currently have no role in active disease.

Developing an Edema Clinician-Reported Outcome Measure for Nephrotic Syndrome.

Introduction: Edema is a common manifestation of proteinuric kidney diseases, but there is no consensus approach for reliably evaluating edema. The objective of this study was to develop an edema clinician-reported outcome measure for use in patients with nephrotic syndrome. Methods: A literature review was conducted to assess existing clinician-rated measures of edema. Clinical experts were recruited from internal medicine, nephrology, and pediatric nephrology practices to participate in concept elicitation using semi-structured interviews and cognitive debriefing. Qualitative analysis methods were used to collate expert input and inform measurement development. In addition, training and assessment modules were developed using an iterative process that also utilized expert input and cognitive debriefing to ensure interrater reliability. Results: While several clinician-rated measures of edema have been proposed, our literature review did not identify any studies to support the reliability or validity of these measures. Fourteen clinician experts participated in the concept elicitation interviews, and twelve participated in cognitive debriefing. A clinician-reported outcome measure for edema was developed. The measure assesses edema severity in multiple individual body parts. An online training module and assessment tool were generated and refined using additional clinician input and investigative team expertise. Conclusion: The Edema ClinRO (V1) measure is developed specifically to measure edema in nephrotic syndrome. The tool assesses edema across multiple body parts, and it includes a training module to ensure standardized administration across raters. Future examination of this measure is ongoing to establish its reliability and validity.

Low concentrations of medium-sized HDL particles predict incident CVD in chronic kidney disease patients.

Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk for CVD. However, traditional CVD risk factors cannot completely explain the increased risk. Altered HDL proteome is linked with incident CVD in CKD patients, but it is unclear whether other HDL metrics are associated with incident CVD in this population. In the current study, we analyzed samples from two independent prospective case-control cohorts of CKD patients, the Clinical Phenotyping and Resource Biobank Core (CPROBE) and the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC). We measured HDL particle sizes and concentrations (HDL-P) by calibrated ion mobility analysis and HDL cholesterol efflux capacity (CEC) by cAMP-stimulated J774 macrophages in 92 subjects from the CPROBE cohort (46 CVD and 46 controls) and in 91 subjects from the CRIC cohort (34 CVD and 57 controls). We tested associations of HDL metrics with incident CVD using logistic regression analysis. No significant associations were found for HDL-C or HDL-CEC in either cohort. Total HDL-P was only negatively associated with incident CVD in the CRIC cohort in unadjusted analysis. Among the six sized HDL subspecies, only medium-sized HDL-P was significantly and negatively associated with incident CVD in both cohorts after adjusting for clinical confounders and lipid risk factors with odds ratios (per 1-SD) of 0.45 (0.22-0.93, P = 0.032) and 0.42 (0.20-0.87, P = 0.019) for CPROBE and CRIC cohorts, respectively. Our observations indicate that medium-sized HDL-P-but not other-sized HDL-P or total HDL-P, HDL-C, or HDL-CEC-may be a prognostic cardiovascular risk marker in CKD.

Ultraprocessed Foods and Kidney Disease Progression, Mortality, and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in the CRIC Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Ultraprocessed foods are widely consumed in the United States and are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), mortality, and kidney function decline in the general population. We investigated associations between ultraprocessed food intake and chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression, all-cause mortality, and incident CVD in adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD). STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study participants who completed baseline dietary questionnaires. EXPOSURE: Ultraprocessed food intake (in servings per day) classified according to the NOVA system. OUTCOMES: CKD progression (≥50% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or initiation of kidney replacement therapy), all-cause mortality, and incident CVD (myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, or stroke). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for demographic, lifestyle, and health covariates. RESULTS: There were 1,047 CKD progression events observed during a median follow-up of 7 years. Greater ultraprocessed food intake was associated with higher risk of CKD progression (tertile 3 vs tertile 1, HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.04-1.42; P=0.01 for trend). The association differed by baseline kidney function, such that greater intake was associated with higher risk among people with CKD stages 1/2 (eGFR≥60mL/min/1.73m2; tertile 3 vs tertile 1, HR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.32-5.18) but not stages 3a-5 (eGFR<60mL/min/1.73m2; P=0.003 for interaction). There were 1,104 deaths observed during a median follow-up of 14 years. Greater ultraprocessed food intake was associated with higher risk of mortality (tertile 3 vs tertile 1, HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.04-1.40; P=0.004 for trend). LIMITATIONS: Self-reported diet. CONCLUSIONS: Greater ultraprocessed food intake may be associated with CKD progression in earlier stages of CKD and is associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality in adults with CKD. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Ultraprocessed foods are industrial formulations produced using ingredients and processes that are not commonly used in culinary preparations and contain few, if any, intact unprocessed foods. Ultraprocessed foods are widely consumed in the United States, and high intakes of such foods have been linked to cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, and mortality in the general population. In this study, we found that greater intake of ultraprocessed foods was associated with higher risk of kidney disease progression and mortality in adults with chronic kidney disease. Our findings suggest that patients with kidney disease may benefit from greater consumption of fresh, whole, and homemade or hand-prepared foods and fewer highly processed foods.

Absence of long-term changes in urine biomarkers after AKI: findings from the CRIC study.

BACKGROUND: Mechanisms by which AKI leads to CKD progression remain unclear. Several urine biomarkers have been identified as independent predictors of progressive CKD. It is unknown whether AKI may result in long-term changes in these urine biomarkers, which may mediate the effect of AKI on CKD progression. METHODS: We selected 198 episodes of hospitalized AKI (defined as peak/nadir inpatient serum creatinine values ≥ 1.5) among adult participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study. We matched the best non-AKI hospitalization (unique patients) for each AKI hospitalization using pre-hospitalization characteristics including eGFR and urine protein/creatinine ratio. Biomarkers were measured in banked urine samples collected at annual CRIC study visits. RESULTS: Urine biomarker measurements occurred a median of 7 months before and 5 months after hospitalization. There were no significant differences in the change in urine biomarker-to-creatinine ratio between the AKI and non-AKI groups: KIM-1/Cr + 9% vs + 7%, MCP-1/Cr + 4% vs + 1%, YKL-40/Cr + 7% vs -20%, EGF/Cr -11% vs -8%, UMOD/Cr -2% vs -7% and albumin/Cr + 17% vs + 13% (all p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: In this cohort of adults with CKD, AKI did not associate with long-term changes in urine biomarkers.

Associations of Anxiety during the COVID-19 Pandemic with Patient Characteristics and Behaviors in CKD Patients: Findings from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with anxiety and depression. Although the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has increased stressors on patients with CKD, assessments of anxiety and its predictors and consequences on behaviors, specifically virus mitigation behaviors, are lacking. Methods: From June to October 2020, we administered a survey to 1873 patients in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study, asking participants about anxiety related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined associations between anxiety and participant demographics, clinical indexes, and health literacy and whether anxiety was associated with health-related behaviors and COVID-19 mitigation behaviors. Results: The mean age of the study population was 70 years (SD=9.6 years), 47% were women, 39% were Black non-Hispanic, 14% were Hispanic, and 38% had a history of cardiovascular disease. In adjusted analyses, younger age, being a woman, Hispanic ethnicity, cardiovascular disease, household income <$20,000, and marginal or inadequate health literacy predicted higher anxiety. Higher global COVID-19-related anxiety scores were associated with higher odds of reporting always wearing a mask in public (OR=1.3 [95% CI, 1.14 to 1.48], P<0.001) and of eating less healthy foods (OR=1.29 [95% CI, 1.13 to 1.46], P<0.001), reduced physical activity (OR=1.32 [95% CI, 1.2 to 1.45], P<0.001), and weight gain (OR=1.23 [95% CI, 1.11 to 1.38], P=0.001). Conclusions: Higher anxiety levels related to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated not only with higher self-reported adherence to mask wearing but also with higher weight gain and less adherence to healthy lifestyle behaviors. Interventions are needed to support continuation of healthy lifestyle behaviors in patients with CKD experiencing increased anxiety related to the pandemic.

Clinical Utility in Adopting Race-free Kidney Donor Risk Index.

Recent events of racial injustice prompted us to study potential impact of removing race from kidney donor risk index (KDRI) calculator. Methods: We used Scientific Registry for Transplant Recipients data to analyze outcomes of 66 987 deceased-donor kidney transplants performed in the United States between 2010 and 2016. Graft failure (GF) was defined as death or return to dialysis or requiring repeat transplant. We compared original KDRI and a race-free KDRI (Black donor coefficient zeroed out in the KDRI formula) with respect to recategorization of perceived GF risk (based on KDPI categories: ≤20, 21-34, 35-85, ≥86)' risk discrimination (using the C statistic) and predictive accuracy (using Brier score), and GF risk prediction (using Cox regression on time-to-GF). We used logistic regression to study the impact of donor race on discard probability. Results: There were 10 949 (16.3% of recipients) GF, and 1893 (17% of GFs) were among recipients of kidneys from Black donors. The use of race-free KDRI resulted in reclassification of 49% of kidneys from Black donors into lower GF risk categories. The impact on GF risk discrimination was minimal, with a relative decrease in C statistic of 0.16% and a change in GF predictive accuracy of 0.07%. For a given recipient/donor combination, transplants from Black (compared with non-Black) donors are estimated to decrease predicted graft survival at 1-y by 0.3%-3%, and 5-y by 1%-6%. Kidneys from Black donors are significantly more likely to be discarded (odds ratio adjusted for KDRI except race = 1.24). We estimate that an equal discard probability for Black and non-Black donors would yield 70 additional kidney transplants annually from Black donors. Conclusions: Use of race-free KDRI did not impact GF risk discrimination or predictive accuracy and may lower discard of kidneys from Black donors. We recommend use of race-free KDRI calculator acknowledging the possibility of miscalculation of GF risk in small proportion of kidneys from Black donors.

Acute Kidney Injury Associates with Long-Term Increases in Plasma TNFR1, TNFR2, and KIM-1: Findings from the CRIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Some markers of inflammation-TNF receptors 1 and 2 (TNFR1 and TNFR2)-are independently associated with progressive CKD, as is a marker of proximal tubule injury, kidney injury molecule 1 (KIM-1). However, whether an episode of hospitalized AKI may cause long-term changes in these biomarkers is unknown. METHODS: Among adult participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study, we identified 198 episodes of hospitalized AKI (defined as peak/nadir inpatient serum creatinine values ≥1.5). For each AKI hospitalization, we found the best matched non-AKI hospitalization (unique patients), using prehospitalization characteristics, including eGFR and urine protein/creatinine ratio. We measured TNFR1, TNFR2, and KIM-1 in banked plasma samples collected at annual CRIC study visits before and after the hospitalization (a median of 7 months before and 5 months after hospitalization). RESULTS: In the AKI and non-AKI groups, we found similar prehospitalization median levels of TNFR1 (1373 pg/ml versus 1371 pg/ml, for AKI and non-AKI, respectively), TNFR2 (47,141 pg/ml versus 46,135 pg/ml, respectively), and KIM-1 (857 pg/ml versus 719 pg/ml, respectively). Compared with matched study participants who did not experience AKI, study participants who did experience AKI had greater increases in TNFR1 (23% versus 10%, P<0.01), TNFR2 (10% versus 3%, P<0.01), and KIM-1 (13% versus -2%, P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with CKD, AKI during hospitalization was associated with increases in plasma TNFR1, TNFR2, and KIM-1 several months after their hospitalization. These results highlight a potential mechanism by which AKI may contribute to more rapid loss of kidney function months to years after the acute insult.

Trans-ethnic genome-wide association study of blood metabolites in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study.

Metabolomics genome wide association study (GWAS) help outline the genetic contribution to human metabolism. However, studies to date have focused on relatively healthy, population-based samples of White individuals. Here, we conducted a GWAS of 537 blood metabolites measured in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study, with separate analyses in 822 White and 687 Black study participants. Trans-ethnic meta-analysis was then applied to improve fine-mapping of potential causal variants. Mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 44.4 and 41.5 mL/min/1.73m2 in the White and Black participants, respectively. There were 45 significant metabolite associations at 19 loci, including novel associations at PYROXD2, PHYHD1, FADS1-3, ACOT2, MYRF, FAAH, and LIPC. The strength of associations was unchanged in models additionally adjusted for estimated glomerular filtration rate and proteinuria, consistent with a direct biochemical effect of gene products on associated metabolites. At several loci, trans-ethnic meta-analysis, which leverages differences in linkage disequilibrium across populations, reduced the number and/or genomic interval spanned by potentially causal single nucleotide polymorphisms compared to fine-mapping in the White participant cohort alone. Across all validated associations, we found strong concordance in effect sizes of the potentially causal single nucleotide polymorphisms between White and Black study participants. Thus, our study identifies novel genetic determinants of blood metabolites in chronic kidney disease, demonstrates the value of diverse cohorts to improve causal inference in metabolomics GWAS, and underscores the shared genetic basis of metabolism across race.

Atrial Fibrillation and Longitudinal Change in Cognitive Function in CKD.

BACKGROUND: Studies in the general population suggest that atrial fibrillation (AF) is an independent risk factor for decline in cognitive function, but this relationship has not been examined in adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We investigated the association between incident AF and changes in cognitive function over time in this population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied a subgroup of 3254 adults participating in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study. Incident AF was ascertained by 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) obtained at a study visit and/or identification of a hospitalization with AF during follow-up. Cognitive function was assessed biennially using the Modified Mini-Mental State Exam. Linear mixed effects regression was used to evaluate the association between incident AF and longitudinal change in cognitive function. Compared with individuals without incident AF (n = 3158), those with incident AF (n = 96) were older, had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease and hypertension, and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. After median follow-up of 6.8 years, we observed no significant multivariable association between incident AF and change in cognitive function test score. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of adults with CKD, incident AF was not associated with a decline in cognitive function.

Subtyping CKD Patients by Consensus Clustering: The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

BACKGROUND: CKD is a heterogeneous condition with multiple underlying causes, risk factors, and outcomes. Subtyping CKD with multidimensional patient data holds the key to precision medicine. Consensus clustering may reveal CKD subgroups with different risk profiles of adverse outcomes. METHODS: We used unsupervised consensus clustering on 72 baseline characteristics among 2696 participants in the prospective Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study to identify novel CKD subgroups that best represent the data pattern. Calculation of the standardized difference of each parameter used the cutoff of ±0.3 to show subgroup features. CKD subgroup associations were examined with the clinical end points of kidney failure, the composite outcome of cardiovascular diseases, and death. RESULTS: The algorithm revealed three unique CKD subgroups that best represented patients' baseline characteristics. Patients with relatively favorable levels of bone density and cardiac and kidney function markers, with lower prevalence of diabetes and obesity, and who used fewer medications formed cluster 1 (n=1203). Patients with higher prevalence of diabetes and obesity and who used more medications formed cluster 2 (n=1098). Patients with less favorable levels of bone mineral density, poor cardiac and kidney function markers, and inflammation delineated cluster 3 (n=395). These three subgroups, when linked with future clinical end points, were associated with different risks of CKD progression, cardiovascular disease, and death. Furthermore, patient heterogeneity among predefined subgroups with similar baseline kidney function emerged. CONCLUSIONS: Consensus clustering synthesized the patterns of baseline clinical and laboratory measures and revealed distinct CKD subgroups, which were associated with markedly different risks of important clinical outcomes. Further examination of patient subgroups and associated biomarkers may provide next steps toward precision medicine.

Adiposity, Physical Function, and Their Associations With Insulin Resistance, Inflammation, and Adipokines in CKD.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVES: Adiposity and physical fitness levels are major drivers of cardiometabolic risk, but these relationships have not been well-characterized in chronic kidney disease (CKD). We examined the associations of visceral adipose tissue (VAT), subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), intrahepatic fat, and physical function with inflammation, insulin resistance, and adipokine levels in patients with CKD. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Participants with stages 3-5 CKD not receiving maintenance dialysis, followed up at one of 8 clinical sites in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study, and who underwent magnetic resonance imaging of the abdomen at an annual CRIC Study visit (n = 419). PREDICTORS: VAT volume, SAT volume, intrahepatic fat, body mass index, waist circumference, and time taken to complete the 400-m walk test (physical function). OUTCOMES: Markers of inflammation (interleukin 1ß [IL-1ß], IL-6, tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 [TNFR1], and TNFR2), insulin resistance (homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance), and adipokine levels (adiponectin, total and high molecular weight, resistin, and leptin). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable linear regression of VAT and SAT volume, intrahepatic fat, and physical function with individual markers (log-transformed values), adjusting for relevant covariates. RESULTS: Mean age of the study population was 64.3 years; 41% were women, and mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 53.2±14.6 (SD) mL/min/1.73m2. More than 85% were overweight or obese, and 40% had diabetes. Higher VAT volume, SAT volume, and liver proton density fat fraction were associated with lower levels of total and high-molecular-weight adiponectin, higher levels of leptin and insulin resistance, and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and higher serum triglyceride levels. A slower 400-m walk time was associated only with higher levels of leptin, total adiponectin, plasma IL-6, and TNFR1 and did not modify the associations between fat measures and cardiometabolic risk factors. LIMITATIONS: Lack of longitudinal data and dietary details. CONCLUSIONS: Various measures of adiposity are associated with cardiometabolic risk factors. Physical function was also associated with the cardiometabolic risk factors studied and does not modify associations between fat measures and cardiometabolic risk factors. Longitudinal studies of the relationship between body fat and aerobic fitness with cardiovascular and kidney disease progression are warranted.

Metabolomic Markers of Kidney Function Decline in Patients With Diabetes: Evidence From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Biomarkers that provide reliable evidence of future diabetic kidney disease (DKD) are needed to improve disease management. In a cross-sectional study, we previously identified 13 urine metabolites that had levels reduced in DKD compared with healthy controls. We evaluated associations of these 13 metabolites with future DKD progression. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 1,001 Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) participants with diabetes with estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) between 20 and 70mL/min/1.73m2 were followed up prospectively for a median of 8 (range, 2-10) years. PREDICTORS: 13 urine metabolites, age, race, sex, smoked more than 100 cigarettes in lifetime, body mass index, hemoglobin A1c level, blood pressure, urinary albumin, and eGFR. OUTCOMES: Annual eGFR slope and time to incident kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT; ie, initiation of dialysis or receipt of transplant). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Several clinical metabolite models were developed for eGFR slope as the outcome using stepwise selection and penalized regression, and further tested on the time-to-KFRT outcome. A best cross-validated (final) prognostic model was selected based on high prediction accuracy for eGFR slope and high concordance statistic for incident KFRT. RESULTS: During follow-up, mean eGFR slope was-1.83±1.92 (SD) mL/min/1.73m2 per year; 359 (36%) participants experienced KFRT. Median time to KFRT was 7.45 years from the time of entry to the CRIC Study. In our final model, after adjusting for clinical variables, levels of metabolites 3-hydroxyisobutyrate (3-HIBA) and 3-methylcrotonyglycine had a significant negative association with eGFR slope, whereas citric and aconitic acid were positively associated. Further, 3-HIBA and aconitic acid levels were associated with higher and lower risk for KFRT, respectively (HRs of 2.34 [95% CI, 1.51-3.62] and 0.70 [95% CI, 0.51-0.95]). LIMITATIONS: Subgroups for whom metabolite signatures may not be optimal, nontargeted metabolomics by flow-injection analysis, and 2-stage modeling approaches. CONCLUSIONS: Urine metabolites may offer insights into DKD progression. If replicated in future studies, aconitic acid and 3-HIBA could identify individuals with diabetes at high risk for GFR decline, potentially leading to improved clinical care and targeted therapies.

Current and Future Outlook on Disease Modification and Defining Low Disease Activity in Systemic Sclerosis.

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is an autoimmune rheumatic disease with heterogeneous clinical manifestations and a variable course in which the severity of the pathology dictates the disease prognosis and course. Among autoimmune rheumatic diseases, SSc has the highest mortality rate among all rheumatic diseases, though there are exciting new therapeutic targets that appear to halt the progression of SSc manifestations such as skin or lung fibrosis. In selected patients, high-intensity regimens with autologous stem cell transplantation can favorably modify the course. In what was once thought to be an untreatable disease, targeted therapies have now changed the outlook of SSc to a treatable disorder. Herein, we discuss the targeted therapies modifying the outlook on selected organ involvement and creating opportunities for future treatment. We also present a framework for defining low disease activity in SSc.

Prognostic score matching methods for estimating the average effect of a non-reversible binary time-dependent treatment on the survival function.

In evaluating the benefit of a treatment on survival, it is often of interest to compare post-treatment survival with the survival function that would have been observed in the absence of treatment. In many practical settings, treatment is time-dependent in the sense that subjects typically begin follow-up untreated, with some going on to receive treatment at some later time point. In observational studies, treatment is not assigned at random and, therefore, may depend on various patient characteristics. We have developed semi-parametric matching methods to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) with respect to survival probability and restricted mean survival time. Matching is based on a prognostic score which reflects each patient's death hazard in the absence of treatment. Specifically, each treated patient is matched with multiple as-yet-untreated patients with similar prognostic scores. The matched sets do not need to be of equal size, since each matched control is weighted in order to preserve risk score balancing across treated and untreated groups. After matching, we estimate the ATT non-parametrically by contrasting pre- and post-treatment weighted Nelson-Aalen survival curves. A closed-form variance is proposed and shown to work well in simulation studies. The proposed methods are applied to national organ transplant registry data.

Serum Calcification Propensity and Clinical Events in CKD.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Patients with CKD are at high risk for cardiovascular disease, ESKD, and mortality. Vascular calcification is one pathway through which cardiovascular disease risks are increased. We hypothesized that a novel measure of serum calcification propensity is associated with cardiovascular disease events, ESKD, and all-cause mortality among patients with CKD stages 2-4. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Among 3404 participants from the prospective, longitudinal Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study, we quantified calcification propensity as the transformation time (T50) from primary to secondary calciprotein particles, with lower T50 corresponding to higher calcification propensity. We used multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models to assess the associations of T50 with risks of adjudicated atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and peripheral artery disease), adjudicated heart failure, ESKD, and mortality. RESULTS: The mean T50 was 313 (SD 79) minutes. Over an average 7.1 (SD 3.1) years of follow-up, we observed 571 atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events, 633 heart failure events, 887 ESKD events, and 924 deaths. With adjustment for traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors, lower T50 was significantly associated with higher risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio [HR] per SD lower T50, 1.14; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.05 to 1.25), ESKD within 3 years from baseline (HR per SD lower T50, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.52 to 1.86), and all-cause mortality (HR per SD lower T50, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.24), but not heart failure (HR per SD lower T50, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.97 to 1.15). After adjustment for eGFR and 24-hour urinary protein, T50 was not associated with risks of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, ESKD, and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with CKD stages 2-4, higher serum calcification propensity is associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events, ESKD, and all-cause mortality, but this association was not independent of kidney function. PODCAST: This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2019_10_28_CJN04710419.mp3.

Serum Calcification Propensity and Coronary Artery Calcification Among Patients With CKD: The CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is prevalent among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and increases risks for cardiovascular disease events and mortality. We hypothesized that a novel serum measure of calcification propensity is associated with CAC among patients with CKD stages 2 to 4. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Participants from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study with baseline (n=1,274) and follow-up (n=780) CAC measurements. PREDICTORS: Calcification propensity, quantified as transformation time (T50) from primary to secondary calciprotein particles, with lower T50 corresponding to higher calcification propensity. Covariates included age, sex, race/ethnicity, clinical site, estimated glomerular filtration rate, proteinuria, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, number of antihypertensive medications, current smoking, history of cardiovascular disease, total cholesterol level, and use of statin medications. OUTCOMES: CAC prevalence, severity, incidence, and progression. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable-adjusted generalized linear models. RESULTS: At baseline, 824 (65%) participants had prevalent CAC. After multivariable adjustment, T50 was not associated with CAC prevalence but was significantly associated with greater CAC severity among participants with prevalent CAC: 1-SD lower T50 was associated with 21% (95% CI, 6%-38%) greater CAC severity. Among 780 participants followed up an average of 3 years later, 65 (20%) without baseline CAC developed incident CAC, while 89 (19%) with baseline CAC had progression, defined as annual increase≥100 Agatston units. After multivariable adjustment, T50 was not associated with incident CAC but was significantly associated with CAC progression: 1-SD lower T50 was associated with 28% (95% CI, 7%-53%) higher risk for CAC progression. LIMITATIONS: Potential selection bias in follow-up analyses; inability to distinguish intimal from medial calcification. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with CKD stages 2 to 4, higher serum calcification propensity is associated with more severe CAC and CAC progression.

Quantifying lung ultrasound comets with a convolutional neural network: Initial clinical results.

Lung ultrasound comets are "comet-tail" artifacts appearing in lung ultrasound images. They are particularly useful in detecting several lung pathologies and may indicate the amount of extravascular lung water. However, the comets are not always well defined and large variations in the counting results exist between observers. This study uses a convolutional neural network to quantify these lung ultrasound comets on a 4864-image clinical lung ultrasound dataset labeled by the authors. The neural network counted the number of comets correctly on 43.4% of the images and has an intraclass correlation (ICC) of 0.791 with respect to human counting on the test set. The ICC level indicates a higher correlation level than previously reported ICC between human observers. The neural network was then deployed and applied to a clinical 6272-image dataset. The correlation between the automated comet counts and the clinical parameters was examined. The comet counts correlate positively with the diastolic blood pressure (p = 0.047, r = 0.448), negatively with ejection fraction (p = 0.061, r = -0.513), and negatively with BMI (p = 0.009, r = -0.566). The neural network can be alternatively formulated as a diagnostic test for comet-positive images with 80.8% accuracy. The results could potentially be improved with a larger dataset and a refined approach to the neural networks used.

Reevaluation of the Kidney Donor Risk Index.

BACKGROUND: The Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI) is a score applicable to deceased kidney donors which reflects relative graft failure risk associated with deceased donor characteristics. The KDRI is widely used in kidney transplant outcomes research. Moreover, an abbreviated version of KDRI is the basis, for allocation purposes, of the "top 20%" designation for deceased donor kidneys. Data upon which the KDRI model was based used kidney transplants performed between 1995 and 2005. Our purpose in this report was to evaluate the need to update the coefficients in the KDRI formula, with the objective of either (a) proposing new coefficients or (b) endorsing continued used of the existing formula. METHODS: Using data obtained from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we analyzed n = 156069 deceased donor adult kidney transplants occurring from 2000 to 2016. Cox regression was used to model the risk of graft failure. We then tested for differences between the original and updated regression coefficients and compared the performance of the original and updated KDRI formulas with respect to discrimination and predictive accuracy. RESULTS: In testing for equality between the original and updated KDRIs, few coefficients were significantly different. Moreover, the original and updated KDRI yielded very similar risk discrimination and predictive accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our results indicate that the original KDRI is robust and is not meaningfully improved by an update derived through modeling analogous to that originally employed.