Considering intentional stratospheric dehydration for climate benefits.

We introduce a climate intervention strategy focused on decreasing water vapor (WV) concentrations near the tropopause and in the stratosphere to increase outbound longwave radiation. The mechanism is the targeted injection of ice-nucleating particles (INP) in air supersaturated with respect to ice at high altitudes in the tropical entryway to the stratosphere. Ice formation in this region is a critical control of stratospheric WV. Recent airborne in situ data indicate that targeting only a small fraction of air parcels in the region would be sufficient to achieve substantial removal of water. This "intentional stratospheric dehydration" (ISD) strategy would not counteract a large fraction of the forcing from carbon dioxide but may contribute to a portfolio of climate interventions by acting with different time and length scales of impact and risk than other interventions that are already under consideration. We outline the idea, its plausibility, technical hurdles, and side effects to be considered.

Large contribution of biomass burning emissions to ozone throughout the global remote troposphere.

Ozone is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and methane but has a larger uncertainty in its radiative forcing, in part because of uncertainty in the source characteristics of ozone precursors, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic carbon that directly affect ozone formation chemistry. Tropospheric ozone also negatively affects human and ecosystem health. Biomass burning (BB) and urban emissions are significant but uncertain sources of ozone precursors. Here, we report global-scale, in situ airborne measurements of ozone and precursor source tracers from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography mission. Measurements from the remote troposphere showed that tropospheric ozone is regularly enhanced above background in polluted air masses in all regions of the globe. Ozone enhancements in air with high BB and urban emission tracers (2.1 to 23.8 ppbv [parts per billion by volume]) were generally similar to those in BB-influenced air (2.2 to 21.0 ppbv) but larger than those in urban-influenced air (-7.7 to 6.9 ppbv). Ozone attributed to BB was 2 to 10 times higher than that from urban sources in the Southern Hemisphere and the tropical Atlantic and roughly equal to that from urban sources in the Northern Hemisphere and the tropical Pacific. Three independent global chemical transport models systematically underpredict the observed influence of BB on tropospheric ozone. Potential reasons include uncertainties in modeled BB injection heights and emission inventories, export efficiency of BB emissions to the free troposphere, and chemical mechanisms of ozone production in smoke. Accurately accounting for intermittent but large and widespread BB emissions is required to understand the global tropospheric ozone burden.

HCOOH in the remote atmosphere: Constraints from Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) airborne observations.

Formic acid (HCOOH) is an important component of atmospheric acidity but its budget is poorly understood, with prior observations implying substantial missing sources. Here we combine pole-to-pole airborne observations from the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) with chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem CTM) and back trajectory analyses to provide the first global in-situ characterization of HCOOH in the remote atmosphere. ATom reveals sub-100 ppt HCOOH concentrations over most of the remote oceans, punctuated by large enhancements associated with continental outflow. Enhancements correlate with known combustion tracers and trajectory-based fire influences. The GEOS-Chem model underpredicts these in-plume HCOOH enhancements, but elsewhere we find no broad indication of a missing HCOOH source in the background free troposphere. We conclude that missing non-fire HCOOH precursors inferred previously are predominantly short-lived. We find indications of a wet scavenging underestimate in the model consistent with a positive HCOOH bias in the tropical upper troposphere. Observations reveal episodic evidence of ocean HCOOH uptake, which is well-captured by GEOS-Chem; however, despite its strong seawater undersaturation HCOOH is not consistently depleted in the remote marine boundary layer. Over fifty fire and mixed plumes were intercepted during ATom with widely varying transit times and source regions. HCOOH:CO normalized excess mixing ratios in these plumes range from 3.4 to >50 ppt/ppb CO and are often over an order of magnitude higher than expected primary emission ratios. HCOOH is thus a major reactive organic carbon reservoir in the aged plumes sampled during ATom, implying important missing pathways for in-plume HCOOH production.

A decline in global CFC-11 emissions during 2018-2019.

The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) has been in decline since the production of ozone-depleting substances was phased out under the Montreal Protocol1,2. Since 2013, the concentration decline of CFC-11 slowed unexpectedly owing to increasing emissions, probably from unreported production, which, if sustained, would delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer1-12. Here we report an accelerated decline in the global mean CFC-11 concentration during 2019 and 2020, derived from atmospheric concentration measurements at remote sites around the world. We find that global CFC-11 emissions decreased by 18 ± 6 gigagrams per year (26 ± 9 per cent; one standard deviation) from 2018 to 2019, to a 2019 value (52 ± 10 gigagrams per year) that is similar to the 2008-2012 mean. The decline in global emissions suggests a substantial decrease in unreported CFC-11 production. If the sharp decline in unexpected global emissions and unreported production is sustained, any associated future ozone depletion is likely to be limited, despite an increase in the CFC-11 bank (the amount of CFC-11 produced, but not yet emitted) by 90 to 725 gigagrams by the beginning of 2020.

A large source of cloud condensation nuclei from new particle formation in the tropics.

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) can affect cloud properties and therefore Earth's radiative balance1-3. New particle formation (NPF) from condensable vapours in the free troposphere has been suggested to contribute to CCN, especially in remote, pristine atmospheric regions4, but direct evidence is sparse, and the magnitude of this contribution is uncertain5-7. Here we use in situ aircraft measurements of vertical profiles of aerosol size distributions to present a global-scale survey of NPF occurrence. We observe intense NPF at high altitudes in tropical convective regions over both Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Together with the results of chemical-transport models, our findings indicate that NPF persists at all longitudes as a global-scale band in the tropical upper troposphere, covering about 40 per cent of Earth's surface. Furthermore, we find that this NPF in the tropical upper troposphere is a globally important source of CCN in the lower troposphere, where CCN can affect cloud properties. Our findings suggest that the production of CCN as new particles descend towards the surface is not adequately captured in global models, which tend to underestimate both the magnitude of tropical upper tropospheric NPF and the subsequent growth of new particles to CCN sizes.

Atmospheric Acetaldehyde: Importance of Air-Sea Exchange and a Missing Source in the Remote Troposphere.

We report airborne measurements of acetaldehyde (CH3CHO) during the first and second deployments of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom). The budget of CH3CHO is examined using the Community Atmospheric Model with chemistry (CAM-chem), with a newly-developed online air-sea exchange module. The upper limit of the global ocean net emission of CH3CHO is estimated to be 34 Tg a-1 (42 Tg a-1 if considering bubble-mediated transfer), and the ocean impacts on tropospheric CH3CHO are mostly confined to the marine boundary layer. Our analysis suggests that there is an unaccounted CH3CHO source in the remote troposphere and that organic aerosols can only provide a fraction of this missing source. We propose that peroxyacetic acid (PAA) is an ideal indicator of the rapid CH3CHO production in the remote troposphere. The higher-than-expected CH3CHO measurements represent a missing sink of hydroxyl radicals (and halogen radical) in current chemistry-climate models.

An unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of ozone-depleting CFC-11.

The Montreal Protocol was designed to protect the stratospheric ozone layer by enabling reductions in the abundance of ozone-depleting substances such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere1-3. The reduction in the atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) has made the second-largest contribution to the decline in the total atmospheric concentration of ozone-depleting chlorine since the 1990s 1 . However, CFC-11 still contributes one-quarter of all chlorine reaching the stratosphere, and a timely recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer depends on a sustained decline in CFC-11 concentrations 1 . Here we show that the rate of decline of atmospheric CFC-11 concentrations observed at remote measurement sites was constant from 2002 to 2012, and then slowed by about 50 per cent after 2012. The observed slowdown in the decline of CFC-11 concentration was concurrent with a 50 per cent increase in the mean concentration difference observed between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and also with the emergence of strong correlations at the Mauna Loa Observatory between concentrations of CFC-11 and other chemicals associated with anthropogenic emissions. A simple model analysis of our findings suggests an increase in CFC-11 emissions of 13 ± 5 gigagrams per year (25 ± 13 per cent) since 2012, despite reported production being close to zero 4 since 2006. Our three-dimensional model simulations confirm the increase in CFC-11 emissions, but indicate that this increase may have been as much as 50 per cent smaller as a result of changes in stratospheric processes or dynamics. The increase in emission of CFC-11 appears unrelated to past production; this suggests unreported new production, which is inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol agreement to phase out global CFC production by 2010.

Efficient transport of tropospheric aerosol into the stratosphere via the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone.

An enhanced aerosol layer near the tropopause over Asia during the June-September period of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) was recently identified using satellite observations. Its sources and climate impact are presently not well-characterized. To improve understanding of this phenomenon, we made in situ aerosol measurements during summer 2015 from Kunming, China, then followed with a modeling study to assess the global significance. The in situ measurements revealed a robust enhancement in aerosol concentration that extended up to 2 km above the tropopause. A climate model simulation demonstrates that the abundant anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions from Asia coupled with rapid vertical transport associated with monsoon convection leads to significant particle formation in the upper troposphere within the ASM anticyclone. These particles subsequently spread throughout the entire Northern Hemispheric (NH) lower stratosphere and contribute significantly (∼15%) to the NH stratospheric column aerosol surface area on an annual basis. This contribution is comparable to that from the sum of small volcanic eruptions in the period between 2000 and 2015. Although the ASM contribution is smaller than that from tropical upwelling (∼35%), we find that this region is about three times as efficient per unit area and time in populating the NH stratosphere with aerosol. With a substantial amount of organic and sulfur emissions in Asia, the ASM anticyclone serves as an efficient smokestack venting aerosols to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. As economic growth continues in Asia, the relative importance of Asian emissions to stratospheric aerosol is likely to increase.

Global-scale seasonally resolved black carbon vertical profiles over the Pacific.

[1] Black carbon (BC) aerosol loadings were measured during the High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaign above the remote Pacific from 85°N to 67°S. Over 700 vertical profiles extending from near the surface to max ∼14 km altitude were obtained with a single-particle soot photometer between early 2009 and mid-2011. The data provides a climatology of BC in the remote regions that reveals gradients of BC concentration reflecting global-scale transport and removal of pollution. BC is identified as a sensitive tracer of extratropical mixing into the lower tropical tropopause layer and trends toward surprisingly uniform loadings in the lower stratosphere of ∼1 ng/kg. The climatology is compared to predictions from the AeroCom global model intercomparison initiative. The AeroCom model suite overestimates loads in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (∼10×) more severely than at lower altitudes (∼3×), with bias roughly independent of season or geographic location; these results indicate that it overestimates BC lifetime.