Crop modeling suggests limited transpiration would increase yield of sorghum across drought-prone regions of the United States.

Breeding sorghum to withstand droughts is pivotal to secure crop production in regions vulnerable to water scarcity. Limited transpiration (LT) restricts water demand at high vapor pressure deficit, saving water for use in critical periods later in the growing season. Here we evaluated the hypothesis that LT would increase sorghum grain yield in the United States. We used a process-based crop model, APSIM, which simulates interactions of genotype, environment, and management (G × E × M). In this study, the G component includes the LT trait (GT) and maturity group (GM), the EW component entails water deficit patterns, and the MP component represents different planting dates. Simulations were conducted over 33 years (1986-2018) for representative locations across the US sorghum belt (Kansas, Texas, and Colorado) for three planting dates and maturity groups. The interaction of GT x EW indicated a higher impact of LT sorghum on grain for late drought (LD), mid-season drought (MD), and early drought (ED, 8%), than on well-watered (WW) environments (4%). Thus, significant impacts of LT can be achieved in western regions of the sorghum belt. The lack of interaction of GT × GM × MP suggested that an LT sorghum would increase yield by around 8% across maturity groups and planting dates. Otherwise, the interaction GM × MP revealed that specific combinations are better suited across geographical regions. Overall, the findings suggest that breeding for LT would increase sorghum yield in the drought-prone areas of the US without tradeoffs.

Crop modeling defines opportunities and challenges for drought escape, water capture, and yield increase using chilling-tolerant sorghum.

Many crop species, particularly those of tropical origin, are chilling sensitive, so improved chilling tolerance can enhance production of these crops in temperate regions. For the cereal crop sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.), early planting and chilling tolerance have been investigated for >50 years, but the potential value or tradeoffs of this genotype × management change have not been formally evaluated with modeling. To assess the potential of early planted chilling-tolerant grain sorghum in the central US sorghum belt, we conducted CERES-Sorghum simulations and characterized scenarios under which this change would be expected to enhance (or diminish) drought escape, water capture, and yield. We conducted crop growth modeling for full- and short-season hybrids under rainfed systems that were simulated to be planted in very early (April), early (May 15), and normal (June 15) planting dates over 1986-2015 in four locations in Kansas representative of the central US sorghum belt. Simulations indicated that very early planting will generally lead to lower initial soil moisture, longer growing periods, and higher evapotranspiration. Very early planting is expected to extend the growing period by 20% for short- or full-season hybrids, reduce evaporation during fallow periods, and increase plant transpiration in the two-thirds of years with the highest precipitation (mean > 428 mm), leading to 11% and 7% increase grain yield for short- and full-season hybrids, respectively. Thus, in this major sorghum growing region, very early and early planting could reduce risks of terminal droughts, extend seasons, and increase rotation options, suggesting that further development of chilling-tolerant hybrids is warranted.

Supply chains for processed potato and tomato products in the United States will have enhanced resilience with planting adaptation strategies.

Food systems are increasingly challenged to meet growing demand for specialty crops due to the effects of climate change and increased competition for resources. Here, we apply an integrated methodology that includes climate, crop, economic and life cycle assessment models to US potato and tomato supply chains. We find that supply chains for two popular processed products in the United States, French fries and pasta sauce, will be remarkably resilient, through planting adaptation strategies that avoid higher temperatures. Land and water footprints will decline over time due to higher yields, and greenhouse gas emissions can be mitigated by waste reduction and process modification. Our integrated methodology can be applied to other crops, health-based consumer scenarios (fresh versus processed) and geographies, thereby informing decision-making throughout supply chains. Employing such methods will be essential as food systems are forced to adapt and transform to become carbon neutral due to the imperatives of climate change.

Genetic Architecture of Chilling Tolerance in Sorghum Dissected with a Nested Association Mapping Population.

Dissecting the genetic architecture of stress tolerance in crops is critical to understand and improve adaptation. In temperate climates, early planting of chilling-tolerant varieties could provide longer growing seasons and drought escape, but chilling tolerance (<15°) is generally lacking in tropical-origin crops. Here we developed a nested association mapping (NAM) population to dissect the genetic architecture of early-season chilling tolerance in the tropical-origin cereal sorghum (Sorghum bicolor [L.] Moench). The NAM resource, developed from reference line BTx623 and three chilling-tolerant Chinese lines, is comprised of 771 recombinant inbred lines genotyped by sequencing at 43,320 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We phenotyped the NAM population for emergence, seedling vigor, and agronomic traits (>75,000 data points from ∼16,000 plots) in multi-environment field trials in Kansas under natural chilling stress (sown 30-45 days early) and normal growing conditions. Joint linkage mapping with early-planted field phenotypes revealed an oligogenic architecture, with 5-10 chilling tolerance loci explaining 20-41% of variation. Surprisingly, several of the major chilling tolerance loci co-localize precisely with the classical grain tannin (Tan1 and Tan2) and dwarfing genes (Dw1 and Dw3) that were under strong directional selection in the US during the 20th century. These findings suggest that chilling sensitivity was inadvertently selected due to coinheritance with desired nontannin and dwarfing alleles. The characterization of genetic architecture with NAM reveals why past chilling tolerance breeding was stymied and provides a path for genomics-enabled breeding of chilling tolerance.

Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in an increase in vulnerable households and the poverty rate.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments.

This study presents results of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming above pre-industrial conditions. This first CGRA application provides multi-discipline, multi-scale, and multi-model perspectives to elucidate major challenges for the agricultural sector caused by direct biophysical impacts of climate changes as well as ramifications of associated mitigation strategies. Agriculture in both target climate stabilizations is characterized by differential impacts across regions and farming systems, with tropical maize Zea mays experiencing the largest losses, while soy Glycine max mostly benefits. The result is upward pressure on prices and area expansion for maize and wheat Triticum aestivum, while soy prices and area decline (results for rice Oryza sativa are mixed). An example global mitigation strategy encouraging bioenergy expansion is more disruptive to land use and crop prices than the climate change impacts alone, even in the +2.0°C scenario which has a larger climate signal and lower mitigation requirement than the +1.5°C scenario. Coordinated assessments reveal that direct biophysical and economic impacts can be substantially larger for regional farming systems than global production changes. Regional farmers can buffer negative effects or take advantage of new opportunities via mitigation incentives and farm management technologies. Primary uncertainties in the CGRA framework include the extent of CO2 benefits for diverse agricultural systems in crop models, as simulations without CO2 benefits show widespread production losses that raise prices and expand agricultural area.

A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels.

A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach.