Unintended consequences of the 18-week referral to treatment standard in NHS England: a threshold analysis.

OBJECTIVE: In 2012, an '18-week referral to treatment standard' was introduced in England. Among people on the list of those waiting for hospital treatment at a point in time, the standard states that at least '92% of patients should have been waiting for less than 18 weeks'. Targets can have unintended consequences, where patients are prioritised based on the target rather than clinical need. Such an effect will be evident as a spike in the number of hospital trusts at the target threshold, referred to as a threshold effect. This study examines for threshold effects across all non-specialist acute NHS England hospital trusts by financial year. METHODS: A retrospective observational study of publicly available data examined waiting times for patients on the waiting list. We examined trust performance against the 92% target by financial year, from 2015/16 to 2021/22, using Cattaneo et al's manipulation density test (test for discontinuity/spike in data around target threshold) for all patients and by type of treatment. RESULTS: The proportion of NHS hospital trusts meeting the 92% target deteriorated over time. From 2015/16 to 2019/20, there was strong evidence of a threshold effect at the 92% target (p<0.001). There was no evidence of a threshold effect in 2020/21 (p=0.063) or 2021/22 (p=0.090). Threshold effects were present across most types of treatment in 2016/17 and fewer types from 2017/18 onwards. CONCLUSION: We observed striking evidence of a threshold effect suggesting that while targets change behaviour, they do so in a selective way, focusing on the threshold rather than a pervasive improvement in practice. However, at the height of the pandemic, as almost no trusts could reach the target, the threshold effect disappeared.

Defining the Middle Corona.

The middle corona, the region roughly spanning heliocentric distances from 1.5 to 6 solar radii, encompasses almost all of the influential physical transitions and processes that govern the behavior of coronal outflow into the heliosphere. The solar wind, eruptions, and flows pass through the region, and they are shaped by it. Importantly, the region also modulates inflow from above that can drive dynamic changes at lower heights in the inner corona. Consequently, the middle corona is essential for comprehensively connecting the corona to the heliosphere and for developing corresponding global models. Nonetheless, because it is challenging to observe, the region has been poorly studied by both major solar remote-sensing and in-situ missions and instruments, extending back to the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) era. Thanks to recent advances in instrumentation, observational processing techniques, and a realization of the importance of the region, interest in the middle corona has increased. Although the region cannot be intrinsically separated from other regions of the solar atmosphere, there has emerged a need to define the region in terms of its location and extension in the solar atmosphere, its composition, the physical transitions that it covers, and the underlying physics believed to shape the region. This article aims to define the middle corona, its physical characteristics, and give an overview of the processes that occur there.

Temporal trends in admissions for atrial fibrillation and severe bleeding in England: an 18-year longitudinal analysis.

Objective. Temporal trends in admissions for atrial fibrillation (AF) and severe bleeding associated with AF vary worldwide. We aimed to explore their temporal trends in England and their relation to the introduction of DOACs in 2014 in the UK. Design. This longitudinal ecological study utilised aggregated data that was extracted from the Hospital Episode Statistics database, which captured annual admissions for AF and severe bleeding associated with AF between 2001 and 2018. Trends in admissions over the study period and across age groups, gender and regions in England were assessed. Results. In total, there were 11,292,177 admissions for AF and 324,851 admissions for severe bleeding associated with AF. There was a steady rise in admissions for AF from 2001 to 2017 (204,808 to 1,109,295; p for trend<.001). A similar trend was observed for severe bleeding (4940 to 30,169; p for trend <.001), but the increase dropped slightly between 2013 and 2014 and continued thereafter. Conclusions. There was a rise in admissions for AF and severe bleeding in England between 2001 and 2018. There is little evidence that the slight drop in admissions for severe bleeding between 2013 and 2014 may have been caused by the introduction of DOACs in 2014. Contributors to these trends need urgent exploration.

Ethnicity and prognosis following a cardiovascular event in people with and without type 2 diabetes: Observational analysis in over 5 million subjects in England.

AIMS: To quantify ethnic differences in the risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events following a first CVD event in people with and without type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We identified 5,349,271 subjects with a first CVD between 1 January 2002 and 31 May 2020 in England; CVD included aortic aneurism, cerebrovascular accident, heart failure, myocardial infarction, peripheral vascular disease, and other cardiovascular diseases. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for type 2 diabetes and ethnicity of three outcomes: fatal and nonfatal second CVD event (different phenotype compared to the first) and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Relative to White, HRs indicated lower rates in all ethnicities and for all outcomes in both men (from 0.64 to 0.79 for all-cause death; 0.78-0.79 for CVD-related death; and 0.85-0.98 for a second CVD event) and women (0.69-0.77; 0.77-0.83; 0.83-0.95, respectively). Irrespective of ethnicity and sex, type 2 diabetes increased rates of all outcomes by around a third. CONCLUSIONS: Prognosis following a CVD event was consistently worse in subjects with type 2 diabetes while varied across ethnicities, suggesting the implementation of different strategies for the secondary prevention of CVD in different ethnic groups.

Examining organisational responses to performance-based financial incentive systems: a case study using NHS staff influenza vaccination rates from 2012/2013 to 2019/2020.

OBJECTIVE: Financial incentives are often applied to motivate desirable performance across organisations in healthcare systems. In the 2016/2017 financial year, the National Health Service (NHS) in England set a national performance-based incentive to increase uptake of the influenza vaccination among frontline staff. Since then, the threshold levels needed for hospital trusts to achieve the incentive (ie, the targets) have ranged from 70% to 80%. The present study examines the impact of this financial incentive across eight vaccination seasons. DESIGN: A retrospective observational study examining routinely recorded rates of influenza vaccination among staff in all acute NHS hospital trusts across eight vaccination seasons (2012/2013-2019/2020). The number of trusts included varied per year, from 127 to 137, due to organisational changes. McCrary's density test is conducted to determine if the number of hospital trusts narrowly achieving the target by the end of each season is higher than would be expected in the absence of any responsiveness to the target. We refer to this bunching above the target threshold as a 'threshold effect'. RESULTS: In the years before a national incentive was set, 9%-31% of NHS Trusts reported achieving the target, compared with 43%-74% in the 4 years after. Threshold effects did not emerge before the national incentive for payment was set; however, since then, threshold effects have appeared every year. Some trusts report narrowly achieving the target each year, both as the target rises and falls. Threshold effects were not apparent at targets for partial payments. CONCLUSIONS: We provide compelling evidence that performance-based financial incentives produced threshold effects. Policymakers who set such incentives are encouraged to track threshold effects since they contain information on how organisations are responding to an incentive, what enquiries they may wish to make, how the incentive may be improved and what unintended effects it may be having.

Outcomes for surgical procedures funded by the English health service but carried out in public versus independent hospitals: a database study.

BACKGROUND: The outcomes of elective surgery in public versus Independent Sector Healthcare Providers (ISHPs) are a matter of policy relevance and theoretical interest. METHODS: Retrospective study of all National Health Service (NHS) hospitals and ISHPs in England that provided NHS-funded elective surgery. We used data from the England-wide Hospital Episode Statistics to study 18 common surgical procedures performed between 2006 and 2019. In-hospital outcomes included length of stay, emergency transfers to another hospital or death. Posthospital outcomes included readmission or death within 28 days. Outcomes were compared for each operation type by propensity score matching and survival analysis. RESULTS: The data set included 3 203 331 operations in 734 NHS hospitals and 468 259 operations in 274 ISHPs.In-hospital outcomes: Across all 18 included operation types, length of stay was significantly longer for patients treated in NHS hospitals compared with ISHPs. Effect sizes ranged from a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.15 (95% CI 1.72 to 2.68) for total hip replacement to 1.07 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.09) for wisdom tooth removal; a mean difference of 2.49 and 0.02 days, respectively.Postdischarge outcomes: Treatment at an ISHP was associated with a lower risk of emergency readmission compared with NHS treatment. HRs ranged from 0.36 (95% CI 0.28 to 0.46) for lumbar decompression to 0.75 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.85) for cholecystectomy; absolute risk differences of 1.5 and 1.3 percentage points. There was no difference in mortality. CONCLUSION: Elective surgery in an ISHP is associated with shorter lengths of stay and lower readmission rates than treatment in NHS hospitals across 18 operation types. The data were matched on observable covariates, but we cannot exclude selection bias due to unobserved confounders.

Plasma Heating Induced by Tadpole-like Downflows in the Flaring Solar Corona.

As one of the most spectacular energy release events in the solar system, solar flares are generally powered by magnetic reconnection in the solar corona. As a result of the re-arrangement of magnetic field topology after the reconnection process, a series of new loop-like magnetic structures are often formed and are known as flare loops. A hot diffuse region, consisting of around 5-10 MK plasma, is also observed above the loops and is called a supra-arcade fan. Often, dark, tadpole-like structures are seen to descend through the bright supra-arcade fans. It remains unclear what role these so-called supra-arcade downflows (SADs) play in heating the flaring coronal plasma. Here we show a unique flare observation, where many SADs collide with the flare loops and strongly heat the loops to a temperature of 10-20 MK. Several of these interactions generate clear signatures of quasi-periodic enhancement in the full-Sun-integrated soft X-ray emission, providing an alternative interpretation for quasi-periodic pulsations that are commonly observed during solar and stellar flares.

Ethnicity and risk of death in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 infection in the UK: an observational cohort study in an urban catchment area.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest that certain black and Asian minority ethnic groups experience poorer outcomes from COVID-19, but these studies have not provided insight into potential reasons for this. We hypothesised that outcomes would be poorer for those of South Asian ethnicity hospitalised from a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, once confounding factors, health-seeking behaviours and community demographics were considered, and that this might reflect a more aggressive disease course in these patients. METHODS: Patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection requiring admission to University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust (UHB) in Birmingham, UK between 10 March 2020 and 17 April 2020 were included. Standardised admission ratio (SAR) and standardised mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated using observed COVID-19 admissions/deaths and 2011 census data. Adjusted HR for mortality was estimated using Cox proportional hazard model adjusting and propensity score matching. RESULTS: All patients admitted to UHB with COVID-19 during the study period were included (2217 in total). 58% were male, 69.5% were white and the majority (80.2%) had comorbidities. 18.5% were of South Asian ethnicity, and these patients were more likely to be younger and have no comorbidities, but twice the prevalence of diabetes than white patients. SAR and SMR suggested more admissions and deaths in South Asian patients than would be predicted and they were more likely to present with severe disease despite no delay in presentation since symptom onset. South Asian ethnicity was associated with an increased risk of death, both by Cox regression (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.8), after adjusting for age, sex, deprivation and comorbidities, and by propensity score matching, matching for the same factors but categorising ethnicity into South Asian or not (HR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.6). CONCLUSIONS: Those of South Asian ethnicity appear at risk of worse COVID-19 outcomes. Further studies need to establish the underlying mechanistic pathways.

Randomised controlled trial of a theory-based intervention to prompt front-line staff to take up the seasonal influenza vaccine.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of reminder letters informed by social normative theory (a type of 'nudge theory') on uptake of seasonal influenza vaccination by front-line hospital staff. DESIGN: Individually randomised controlled trial. SETTING: A large acute care hospital in England. PARTICIPANTS: Front-line staff employed by the hospital (n=7540) were randomly allocated to one of four reminder types in a factorial design. INTERVENTIONS: The standard letter included only general information directing the staff to take up the vaccine. A second letter highlighted a type of social norm based on peer comparisons. A third letter highlighted a type of social norm based on an appeal to authority. A fourth letter included a combination of the social norms. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The proportion of hospital staff vaccinated on-site. RESULTS: Vaccine coverage was 43% (812/1885) in the standard letter group, 43% (818/1885) in the descriptive norms group, 43% (814/1885) in the injunctive norms group and 43% (812/1885) in the combination group. There were no statistically significant effects of either norm or the interaction. The OR for the descriptive norms factor is 1.01 (0.89-1.15) in the absence of the injunctive norms factor and 1.00 (0.88-1.13) in its presence. The OR for the injunctive norms factor is 1.00 (0.88-1.14) in the absence of the descriptive norms factor and 0.99 (0.87-1.12) in its presence. CONCLUSIONS: We find no evidence that the uptake of the seasonal influenza vaccination is affected by reminders using social norms to motivate uptake.

Implementation of research evidence in orthopaedics: a tale of three trials.

OBJECTIVE: To examine implementation of evidence in orthopaedic practice following publication of the results of three pivotal clinical trials. DESIGN: Case studies based on three orthopaedic trials funded in sequence by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment (HTA) programme. These trials dealt with treatment of fractures of the humerus, radius and ankle, respectively. For each case study, we conducted time-series analyses to examine the relationship between publication of findings and the implementation (or not) of the findings. RESULTS: The results of all three trials favoured the less expensive and less invasive option. In two cases, a change of practice, in line with the evidence that eventually emerged, preceded publication. Furthermore, the upturn in use of the intervention most supported by each of these two trials corresponded to the start of recruitment to the respective trial. The remaining trial failed to influence practice despite yielding clear-cut evidence. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of results of all three HTA orthopaedic trials favoured the less expensive and less invasive option. In two of the three studies, a change in practice, in line with the evidence that eventually emerged, preceded publication of that evidence. A trend or a change in practice, at around the start of the trial, indicates that the direction of causation opposes our hypothesis that publication of trial findings would lead to changes in practice. Our results provide provocative insight into the nuanced topic of research and practice, but further qualitative work is needed to fully explain what led to the pre-emptive change in practice we observed and why there was no change in the third case.

Using statistical modelling to analyze risk factors for severe and fatal road traffic accidents.

Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are still frequent events in the UK with severe/fatal RTAs leading to significant morbidity and mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to explore clusters of risk factors which affect the severity of RTAs in the UK. A retrospective analysis of 76,334 driver-level records between 2005 and 2014 was conducted. Two methods were used: 'partially constrained generalized logistic regression models' and 'classification and regression tree' (CART) analysis in order to identify individual factors and combinations of risk factors relating to severity of accidents. Several established risk factors were confirmed which contribute to the severity of RTAs. Specific combinations of factors were identified which were more likely to lead to fatal accidents: the involvement of one older person, one or no cycles involved, speed limit over 40 mph in culmination with several other factors. This study reaffirmed risk factors relating to severity of RTAs in the UK, but also established combinations of risk factors which led to the most severe outcomes allowing for targeting of accident-prevention measures. In addition, this study demonstrates the use of CART analysis which can be used in wider public health evaluations where multiple risk factors are at play.