UK clinical guideline for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis.

The National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) has revised the UK guideline for the assessment and management of osteoporosis and the prevention of fragility fractures in postmenopausal women, and men age 50 years and older. Accredited by NICE, this guideline is relevant for all healthcare professionals involved in osteoporosis management. INTRODUCTION: The UK National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) first produced a guideline on the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis in 2008, with updates in 2013 and 2017. This paper presents a major update of the guideline, the scope of which is to review the assessment and management of osteoporosis and the prevention of fragility fractures in postmenopausal women, and men age 50 years and older. METHODS: Where available, systematic reviews, meta-analyses and randomised controlled trials were used to provide the evidence base. Conclusions and recommendations were systematically graded according to the strength of the available evidence. RESULTS: Review of the evidence and recommendations are provided for the diagnosis of osteoporosis, fracture-risk assessment and intervention thresholds, management of vertebral fractures, non-pharmacological and pharmacological treatments, including duration and monitoring of anti-resorptive therapy, glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis, and models of care for fracture prevention. Recommendations are made for training; service leads and commissioners of healthcare; and for review criteria for audit and quality improvement. CONCLUSION: The guideline, which has received accreditation from the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE), provides a comprehensive overview of the assessment and management of osteoporosis for all healthcare professionals involved in its management. This position paper has been endorsed by the International Osteoporosis Foundation and by the European Society for the Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases.

Guidance for the assessment and management of prostate cancer treatment-induced bone loss. A consensus position statement from an expert group.

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Incidence of prostate cancer (PC) is increasing, but androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and other therapies are substantially improving survival. In this context, careful consideration of skeletal health is required to reduce the risk of treatment-related fragility fractures and their associated morbidity and mortality. This risk is currently not well-managed. ADT causes significant loss of bone mineral density (BMD). In the metastatic setting, systemic treatments (e.g. chemotherapy, abiraterone, enzalutamide) are used alongside ADT and may require concomitant glucocorticoids. Both ADT and glucocorticoids pose significant challenges to skeletal health in a population of patients already likely to have ongoing age-related bone loss and/or comorbid conditions. Current PC guidelines lack specific recommendations for optimising bone health. This guidance presents evidence for assessment and management of bone health in this population, with specific recommendations for clinical practitioners in day-to-day PC management. METHODS: Structured meetings of key opinion leaders were integrated with a systematic literature review. Input and endorsement was sought from patients, nursing representatives and specialist societies. SUMMARY OF GUIDANCE: All men starting or continuing long-term ADT should receive lifestyle advice regarding bone health. Calcium/vitamin D supplementation should be offered if required. Fracture risk should be calculated (using the FRAX® tool), with BMD assessment included where feasible. BMD should always be assessed where fracture risk calculated using FRAX® alone is close to the intervention threshold. Intervention should be provided if indicated by local or national guidelines e.g. UK National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) thresholds. Men requiring bone protection therapy should be further assessed (e.g. renal function), with referral to specialist centres if available and offered appropriate treatment to reduce fracture risk. Those near to, but below an intervention threshold, and patients going on to additional systemic therapies (particularly those requiring glucocorticoids), should have FRAX® (including BMD) repeated after 12-18 months. PATIENT SUMMARY: Modern treatments for prostate cancer have led to significant improvements in survival and quality of life. However, some of these treatments may lead to weakening of patient's bones with risk of fracture and it is therefore important to monitor patients' bone health and provide bone protection where needed. This paper provides specific guidance to clinical teams, based on the most recent research evidence, to ensure optimal bone health in their patients.

Anticholinergic burden in middle-aged women and recurrent falls in later life: findings from the Aberdeen prospective osteoporosis screening study (APOSS).

BACKGROUND: Anticholinergic burden (ACB) is a recognised risk factor for falls in older people; however, whether ACB in middle age predicts falls in later life is unknown. METHODS: We examined this association in the middle-aged women of the Aberdeen Prospective Osteoporosis Screening Study (APOSS). ACB was calculated at the second health visit (1997-1999, study baseline) using the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden Scale. Outcomes were incidence of 1 fall and recurrent falls (⩾2 falls) during the 12 months prior to follow up 2007-2011. Multinomial logistic regression analyses adjusted for potential confounders including demographics, comorbidities and falls history. RESULTS: A total of 2125 women {mean age (standard deviation [SD]): 54.7 (2.2) years at baseline and 66.0 (2.2) years at follow up} were included. Prevalence of baseline ACB score of 0, 1 and ⩾2 was 87.1%, 7.3% and 5.6%, respectively. Compared with no ACB, ACB ⩾2 was associated with recurrent falls in the previous 12 months [adjusted odds ratio (OR): 2.34, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.31, 4.19] at an average of 11 years after initial exposure. No such association was found for an ACB score of 1. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the potential negative effects of anticholinergic medications in middle age. While cautious use of anticholinergic medications is advisable, further longitudinal research should be conducted to confirm these findings before any specific clinical recommendations can be made.

Zoledronate.

Zoledronate is the most potent and most long-acting bisphosphonate in clinical use, and is administered as an intravenous infusion. Its major uses are in osteoporosis, Paget's disease, and in myeloma and cancers to reduce adverse skeletal related events (SREs). In benign disease, it is a first- or second-line treatment for osteoporosis, achieving anti-fracture efficacy comparable to that of the RANKL blocker, denosumab, over 3 years, and it reduces fracture risk in osteopenic older women. It is the preferred treatment for Paget's disease, achieving higher rates of remissions which are much more prolonged than with any other agent. Some trials have suggested that it reduces mortality, cardiovascular disease and cancer, but these findings are not consistent across all studies. It is nephrotoxic, so should not be given to those with significant renal impairment, and, like other potent anti-resorptive agents, can cause hypocalcemia in patients with severe vitamin D deficiency, which should be corrected before administration. Its most common adverse effect is the acute phase response, seen in 30-40% of patients after their first dose, and much less commonly subsequently. Clinical trials in osteoporosis have not demonstrated increases in osteonecrosis of the jaw or in atypical femoral fractures. Observational databases are currently inadequate to determine whether these problems are increased in zoledronate users. Now available as a generic, zoledronate is a cost-effective agent for fracture prevention and for management of Paget's disease, but wider provision of infusion facilities is important to increase patient access. There is a need to further explore its potential for reducing cancer, cardiovascular disease and mortality, since these effects could be substantially more important than its skeletal actions.

Statistical shape modelling provides a responsive measure of morphological change in knee osteoarthritis over 12 months.

OBJECTIVES: Responsive biomarkers are needed to assess the progression of OA and their lack has hampered previous clinical trials. Statistical shape modelling (SSM) from radiographic images identifies those at greatest risk of fast-progression or joint replacement, but its sensitivity to change has not previously been measured. This study evaluates the responsiveness of SSM in knee OA in a 12-month observational study. METHODS: A total of 109 people were recruited who had undergone knee radiographs in the previous 12 months, and were grouped based on severity of radiographic OA (Kellgren-Lawrence grading). An SSM was built from three dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans at 6-month intervals. Change-over-time and OA were assessed using generalized estimating equations, standardized response means (SRM) and reliable change indices. RESULTS: Mode 1 showed typical features of radiographic OA and had a strong link with Kellgren-Lawrence grading but did not change significantly during the study. Mode 3 showed asymmetrical changes consistent with medial cartilage loss, osteophytes and joint malalignment, and was responsive to change, with a 12-month SRM of 0.63. The greatest change was observed in the moderate radiographic OA group (SRM 0.92) compared with the controls (SRM 0.21), and the reliable change index identified 14% of this group whose progression was clinically significant. CONCLUSION: Shape changes linked the progression of osteophytosis with increasing malalignment within the joint. Modelling of the whole joint enabled quantification of change beyond the point where bone-to-bone contact has been made. The knee SSM is, therefore, a responsive biomarker for radiographic change in knees over 12 months.

Application of the Systematic Molecular Fragmentation by Annihilation Method to ab Initio NMR Chemical Shift Calculations.

NMR is a powerful tool for obtaining information on the structural characterization and dynamics of proteins, and nucleic acids, and their complexes. The complexity of the spectra is such that elucidation through computational simulation is a much desired thing. However, the size of most structures of interest is such that they remain out of reach of accurate quantum chemical techniques. Fragmentation methods have been shown to be a viable means of reducing the cost of ab initio calculations to enable the prediction of molecular properties of large systems to chemical accuracy. We look at the systematic molecular fragmentation by annihilation method for a model peptide system and show that this procedure reproduces the shielding constants of a full calculation at only a fraction of the cost. Discussion of the considerations needed in applying this method is discussed and comparison made with the results of the similar fragment molecular orbital and ONIOM methods.

A high anticholinergic burden is associated with a history of falls in the previous year in middle-aged women: findings from the Aberdeen Prospective Osteoporosis Screening Study.

PURPOSE: To examine the cross-sectional association between anticholinergic medication burden (ACB) and a history of falls, bone mineral density, and low trauma fractures in middle-aged women aged under 65 years from the Aberdeen Prospective Osteoporosis Screening Study. METHODS: ACB (0 = none, 1 = possible, ≥2 = definite) was calculated from medication use for 3883 Caucasian women [mean age (SD) = 54.3 (2.3) years] attending the second Aberdeen Prospective Osteoporosis Screening Study visit (1997-2000). Outcomes were examined using logistic regression. Model adjustments were selected a priori based on expert opinion. RESULTS: Of 3883 participants, 3293 scored ACB = 0, 328 scored ACB = 1, and 262 scored ACB ≥2. High ACB burden (≥2) was associated with increased odds (ACB = 0 reference) for falls (fully adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence intervals] = 1.81 [1.25-2.62]; P = 0.002) and having low bone mineral density (lowest quintile-20%) at Ward's triangle (3.22 [1.30-7.99]; P = 0.01). A history of falls over the year prior to the study visit in participants with ACB score ≥2 was 32 per 100. For ACB categories 1 and 0, a history of falls per 100 was 21 and 22, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of falling associated with ACB observed in older age may also extend to middle-aged women.

Bone turnover markers after the menopause: T-score approach.

Bone turnover increases at the menopause and is associated with accelerated bone loss. However, it is not known to what extent there is an imbalance between the processes of bone resorption and bone formation, nor whether it is the rate of bone turnover or the bone balance that is most closely associated with the rate of bone loss. We studied 657 healthy women ages 20 to 79 from five European cities (the OPUS Study) and divided them into two premenopausal age groups, 20 to 29 (n=129), 30 to 39years (n=183), and three postmenopausal groups 1 to 10years (n=91), 11 to 20years (n=131) and 21+ years since menopause (n=123). We measured collagen type I C-telopeptide (CTX, a marker of bone resorption) and procollagen I N-propeptide (PINP, a marker of bone formation). We used these two markers to calculate the overall bone turnover and the difference between bone formation and resorption (bone balance) using the results from the women ages 30 to 39years to calculate a standardised score (T-score). We found that the CTX and PINP levels were higher in the women ages 20 to 29 and in the women in the three menopausal groups as compared to women ages 30 to 39years (p<0.001). For example, the CTX and PINP levels were 80 and 33% higher in women 1 to 10years since menopause as compared to women ages 30 to 39years. In this group of postmenopausal women, the bone turnover expressed as a T-score was 0.72 (0.57 to 0.88, 95%CI) and the bone balance was -0.37 (-0.59 to -0.16). There was greater rate of bone loss from the total hip in all the groups of women after the menopause compared to women before the menopause. We conclude that the bone loss after the menopause is associated with both an increase in bone turnover and a negative bone balance and that bone loss was most clearly associated with overall bone turnover.

Is there role for vitamin D in the treatment of chronic pain?

Chronic pain is highly prevalent in the developed world, and levels of vitamin D are often lower among those with chronic pain conditions than those without. Supplementation of vitamin D has been investigated as a potential independent treatment for chronic pain. This paper presents an overview of the scientific evidence and provides recommendations for use of vitamin D in clinical practice with chronic pain patients.

Degenerative inter-vertebral disc disease osteochondrosis intervertebralis in Europe: prevalence, geographic variation and radiological correlates in men and women aged 50 and over.

Objectives: To assess the prevalences across Europe of radiological indices of degenerative inter-vertebral disc disease (DDD); and to quantify their associations with, age, sex, physical anthropometry, areal BMD (aBMD) and change in aBMD with time. Methods: In the population-based European Prospective Osteoporosis Study, 27 age-stratified samples of men and women from across the continent aged 50+ years had standardized lateral radiographs of the lumbar and thoracic spine to evaluate the severity of DDD, using the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) scale. Measurements of anterior, mid-body and posterior vertebral heights on all assessed vertebrae from T4 to L4 were used to generate indices of end-plate curvature. Results: Images from 10 132 participants (56% female, mean age 63.9 years) passed quality checks. Overall, 47% of men and women had DDD grade 3 or more in the lumbar spine and 36% in both thoracic and lumbar spine. Risk ratios for DDD grades 3 and 4, adjusted for age and anthropometric determinants, varied across a three-fold range between centres, yet prevalences were highly correlated in men and women. DDD was associated with flattened, non-ovoid inter-vertebral disc spaces. KL grade 4 and loss of inter-vertebral disc space were associated with higher spine aBMD. Conclusion: KL grades 3 and 4 are often used clinically to categorize radiological DDD. Highly variable European prevalences of radiologically defined DDD grades 3+ along with the large effects of age may have growing and geographically unequal health and economic impacts as the population ages. These data encourage further studies of potential genetic and environmental causes.

Randomized trial of switching from prescribed non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs to prescribed celecoxib: the Standard care vs. Celecoxib Outcome Trial (SCOT).

BACKGROUND: Selective cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors and conventional non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (nsNSAIDs) have been associated with adverse cardiovascular (CV) effects. We compared the CV safety of switching to celecoxib vs. continuing nsNSAID therapy in a European setting. METHOD: Patients aged 60 years and over with osteoarthritis or rheumatoid arthritis, free from established CV disease and taking chronic prescribed nsNSAIDs, were randomized to switch to celecoxib or to continue their previous nsNSAID. The primary endpoint was hospitalization for non-fatal myocardial infarction or other biomarker positive acute coronary syndrome, non-fatal stroke or CV death analysed using a Cox model with a pre-specified non-inferiority limit of 1.4 for the hazard ratio (HR). RESULTS: In total, 7297 participants were randomized. During a median 3-year follow-up, fewer subjects than expected developed an on-treatment (OT) primary CV event and the rate was similar for celecoxib, 0.95 per 100 patient-years, and nsNSAIDs, 0.86 per 100 patient-years (HR = 1.12, 95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.55; P = 0.50). Comparable intention-to-treat (ITT) rates were 1.14 per 100 patient-years with celecoxib and 1.10 per 100 patient-years with nsNSAIDs (HR = 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.33; P = 0.75). Pre-specified non-inferiority was achieved in the ITT analysis. The upper bound of the 95% confidence limit for the absolute increase in OT risk associated with celecoxib treatment was two primary events per 1000 patient-years exposure. There were only 15 adjudicated secondary upper gastrointestinal complication endpoints (0.078/100 patient-years on celecoxib vs. 0.053 on nsNSAIDs OT, 0.078 vs. 0.053 ITT). More gastrointestinal serious adverse reactions and haematological adverse reactions were reported on nsNSAIDs than celecoxib, but more patients withdrew from celecoxib than nsNSAIDs (50.9% patients vs. 30.2%; P < 0.0001). INTERPRETATION: In subjects 60 years and over, free from CV disease and taking prescribed chronic nsNSAIDs, CV events were infrequent and similar on celecoxib and nsNSAIDs. There was no advantage of a strategy of switching prescribed nsNSAIDs to prescribed celecoxib. This study excluded an increased risk of the primary endpoint of more than two events per 1000 patient-years associated with switching to prescribed celecoxib. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT00447759; Unique identifier: NCT00447759.

The Scottish Early Rheumatoid Arthritis (SERA) Study: an inception cohort and biobank.

BACKGROUND: The Scottish Early Rheumatoid Arthritis (SERA) study is an inception cohort of rheumatoid (RA) and undifferentiated arthritis (UA) patients that aims to provide a contemporary description of phenotype and outcome and facilitate discovery of phenotypic and prognostic biomarkers METHODS: Demographic and clinical outcome data are collected from newly diagnosed RA/UA patients every 6 months from around Scotland. Health service utilization data is acquired from Information Services Division, NHS National Services Scotland. Plain radiographs of hands and feet are collected at baseline and 12 months. Additional samples of whole blood, plasma, serum and filtered urine are collected at baseline, 6 and 12 months RESULTS: Results are available for 1073 patients; at baseline, 76 % were classified as RA and 24 % as UA. Median time from onset to first review was 163 days (IQR97-323). Methotrexate was first-line DMARD for 75 % patients. Disease activity, functional ability and health-related quality of life improved significantly between baseline and 24 months, however the proportion in any employment fell (51 to 38 %, p = 0.0005). 24 % patients reported symptoms of anxiety and/or depression at baseline. 35/391 (9 %) patients exhibited rapid radiographic progression after 12 months. The SERA Biobank has accrued 60,612 samples CONCLUSIONS: In routine care, newly diagnosed RA/UA patients experience significant improvements in disease activity, functional ability and health-related quality of life but have high rates of psychiatric symptoms and declining employment rates. The co-existence of a multi-domain description of phenotype and a comprehensive biobank will facilitate multi-platform translational research to identify predictive markers of phenotype and prognosis.

Determinants of the Maternal 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Response to Vitamin D Supplementation During Pregnancy.

CONTEXT: Current approaches to antenatal vitamin D supplementation do not account for interindividual differences in 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) response. OBJECTIVE: We assessed which maternal and environmental characteristics were associated with 25(OH)D after supplementation with cholecalciferol. DESIGN: Within-randomization-group analysis of participants in the Maternal Vitamin D Osteoporosis Study trial of vitamin D supplementation in pregnancy. SETTING: Hospital antenatal clinics. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 829 pregnant women (422 placebo, 407 cholecalciferol). At 14 and 34 weeks of gestation, maternal anthropometry, health, and lifestyle were assessed and 25(OH)D measured. Compliance was determined using pill counts at 19 and 34 weeks. INTERVENTIONS: 1000 IU/d of cholecalciferol or matched placebo from 14 weeks of gestation until delivery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: 25(OH)D at 34 weeks, measured in a single batch (Diasorin Liaison). RESULTS: 25(OH)D at 34 weeks of gestation was higher in the women randomized to vitamin D (mean [SD], 67.7 [21.3] nmol/L) compared with placebo (43.1 [22.5] nmol/L; P < .001). In women randomized to cholecalciferol, higher pregnancy weight gain from 14 to 34 weeks of gestation (kg) (ß = -0.81 [95% confidence interval -1.39, -0.22]), lower compliance with study medication (%) (ß = -0.28 [-0.072, -0.48]), lower early pregnancy 25(OH)D (nmol/L) (ß = 0.28 [0.16, 0.40]), and delivery in the winter vs the summer (ß = -10.5 [-6.4, -14.6]) were independently associated with lower 25(OH)D at 34 weeks of gestation. CONCLUSIONS: Women who gained more weight during pregnancy had lower 25(OH)D in early pregnancy and delivered in winter achieved a lower 25(OH)D in late pregnancy when supplemented with 1000 IU/d cholecalciferol. Future studies should aim to determine appropriate doses to enable consistent repletion of 25(OH)D during pregnancy.

Maternal gestational vitamin D supplementation and offspring bone health (MAVIDOS): a multicentre, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Maternal vitamin D status has been associated with bone mass of offspring in many, but not all, observational studies. However, maternal vitamin D repletion during pregnancy has not yet been proven to improve offspring bone mass in a randomised controlled trial. We aimed to assess whether neonates born to mothers supplemented with vitamin D during pregnancy have greater whole-body bone mineral content (BMC) at birth than those of mothers who had not received supplementation. METHODS: The Maternal Vitamin D Osteoporosis Study (MAVIDOS) was a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial that recruited pregnant women from three study sites in the UK (Southampton, Oxford, and Sheffield). Eligible participants were older than 18 years, with a singleton pregnancy, gestation of less than 17 weeks, and a serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentration of 25-100 nmol/L at 10-17 weeks' gestation. P'articipants were randomly assigned (1:1), in randomly permuted blocks of ten, to either cholecalciferol 1000 IU/day or matched placebo, taken orally, from 14 weeks' gestation (or as soon as possible before 17 weeks' gestation if recruited later) until delivery. Participants and the research team were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was neonatal whole-body BMC, assessed within 2 weeks of birth by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), analysed in all randomly assigned neonates who had a usable DXA scan. Safety outcomes were assessed in all randomly assigned participants. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial registry, ISRCTN 82927713, and the European Clinical Trials Database, EudraCT 2007-001716-23. FINDINGS: Between Oct 10, 2008, and Feb 11, 2014, we randomly assigned 569 pregnant women to placebo and 565 to cholecalciferol 1000 IU/day. 370 (65%) neonates in the placebo group and 367 (65%) neonates in the cholecalciferol group had a usable DXA scan and were analysed for the primary endpoint. Neonatal whole-body BMC of infants born to mothers assigned to cholecalciferol 1000 IU/day did not significantly differ from that of infants born to mothers assigned to placebo (61·6 g [95% CI 60·3-62·8] vs 60·5 g [59·3-61·7], respectively; p=0·21). We noted no significant differences in safety outcomes, apart from a greater proportion of women in the placebo group with severe post-partum haemorrhage than those in the cholecalciferol group (96 [17%] of 569 mothers in the placebo group vs 65 [12%] of 565 mothers in the cholecalciferol group; p=0·01). No adverse events were deemed to be treatment related. INTERPRETATION: Supplementation of women with cholecalciferol 1000 IU/day during pregnancy did not lead to increased offspring whole-body BMC compared with placebo, but did show that 1000 IU of cholecalciferol daily is sufficient to ensure that most pregnant women are vitamin D replete, and it is safe. These findings support current approaches to vitamin D supplementation in pregnancy. Results of the ongoing MAVIDOS childhood follow-up study are awaited. FUNDING: Arthritis Research UK, Medical Research Council, Bupa Foundation, and National Institute for Health Research.

Brief Report: Predicting Functional Disability: One-Year Results From the Scottish Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Inception Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To identify baseline prognostic indicators of disability at 1 year within a contemporary early inflammatory arthritis inception cohort and then develop a clinically useful tool to support early patient education and decision-making. METHODS: The Scottish Early Rheumatoid Arthritis (SERA) inception cohort is a multicenter, prospective study of patients with newly presenting RA or undifferentiated arthritis. SERA data were analyzed to determine baseline predictors of disability (defined as a Health Assessment Questionnaire [HAQ] score of ≥1) at 1 year. Clinical and psychosocial baseline exposures were entered into a forward stepwise logistic regression model. The model was externally validated using newly accrued SERA data and subsequently converted into a prediction tool. RESULTS: Of the 578 participants (64.5% female), 36.7% (n = 212) reported functional disability at 1 year. Functional disability was independently predicted by baseline disability (odds ratio [OR] 2.67 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.98, 3.59]), depression (OR 2.52 [95% CI 1.18, 5.37]), anxiety (OR 2.37 [95% CI 1.33, 4.21]), being in paid employment with absenteeism during the last week (OR 1.19 [95% CI 0.63, 2.23]), not being in paid employment (OR 2.36 [95% CI 1.38, 4.03]), and being overweight (OR 1.61 [95% CI 1.04, 2.50]). External validation (using 113 newly acquired patients) evidenced good discriminative performance with a C statistic of 0.74, and the calibration slope showed no evidence of model overfit (P = 0.31). CONCLUSION: In the context of modern early inflammatory arthritis treatment paradigms, predictors of disability at 1 year appear to be dominated by psychosocial rather than more traditional clinical measures. This indicates the potential benefit of early access to nonpharmacologic interventions targeting key psychosocial factors, such as mental health and work disability.

Approximating CCSD(T) Nuclear Magnetic Shielding Calculations Using Composite Methods.

A series of composite method approximations for the computationally efficient calculation of NMR shieldings has been developed. These approximations utilize basis sets from the pcS-n series, which is shown to converge rapidly toward experimental gas-phase shieldings at CCSD(T). The possibility of using HF, B3LYP, KT3, or MP2 shieldings to approximate results at CCSD(T) was then examined. It was determined that using HF in conjunction with MP2 significantly reduces the CPU time of calculations while having a minimal impact on the accuracy of the predicted shieldings.