The association between vital signs and clinical outcomes in emergency department patients of different age categories.

BACKGROUND: Appropriate interpretation of vital signs is essential for risk stratification in the emergency department (ED) but may change with advancing age. In several guidelines, risk scores such as the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) and Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores, commonly used in emergency medicine practice (as well as critical care) specify a single cut-off or threshold for each of the commonly measured vital signs. Although a single cut-off may be convenient, it is unknown whether a single cut-off for vital signs truly exists and if the association between vital signs and in-hospital mortality differs per age-category. AIMS: To assess the association between initial vital signs and case-mix adjusted in-hospital mortality in different age categories. METHODS: Observational multicentre cohort study using the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED) in which consecutive ED patients ≥18 years were included between 1 January 2017 and 12 January 2020. The association between vital signs and case-mix adjusted mortality were assessed in three age categories (18-65; 66-80; >80 years) using multivariable logistic regression. Vital signs were each divided into five to six categories, for example, systolic blood pressure (SBP) categories (≤80, 81-100, 101-120, 121-140, >140 mm Hg). RESULTS: We included 101 416 patients of whom 2374 (2.3%) died. Adjusted ORs for mortality increased gradually with decreasing SBP and decreasing peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2). Diastolic blood pressure (DBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP) and heart rate (HR) had quasi-U-shaped associations with mortality. Mortality did not increase for temperatures anywhere in the range between 35.5°C and 42.0°C, with a single cut-off around 35.5°C below which mortality increased. Single cut-offs were also found for MAP <70 mm Hg and respiratory rate >22/min. For all vital signs, older patients had larger increases in absolute mortality compared with younger patients. CONCLUSION: For SBP, DBP, SpO2 and HR, no single cut-off existed. The impact of changing vital sign categories on prognosis was larger in older patients. Our results have implications for the interpretation of vital signs in existing risk stratification tools and acute care guidelines.

Age-adjusted interpretation of biomarkers of renal function and homeostasis, inflammation, and circulation in Emergency Department patients.

Appropriate interpretation of blood tests is important for risk stratification and guidelines used in the Emergency Department (ED) (such as SIRS or CURB-65). The impact of abnormal blood test values on mortality may change with increasing age due to (patho)-physiologic changes. The aim of this study was therefore to assess the effect of age on the case-mix adjusted association between biomarkers of renal function and homeostasis, inflammation and circulation and in-hospital mortality. This observational multi-center cohort study has used the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED), including all consecutive ED patients ≥ 18 years of three hospitals. A generalized additive logistic regression model was used to visualize the association between in-hospital mortality, age and five blood tests (creatinine, sodium, leukocytes, C-reactive Protein, and hemoglobin). Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association between the number of abnormal blood test values and mortality per age category (18-50; 51-65; 66-80; > 80 years). Of the 94,974 included patients, 2550 (2.7%) patients died in-hospital. Mortality increased gradually for C-reactive Protein (CRP), and had a U-shaped association for creatinine, sodium, leukocytes, and hemoglobin. Age significantly affected the associations of all studied blood tests except in leukocytes. In addition, with increasing age categories, case-mix adjusted mortality increased with the number of abnormal blood tests. In summary, the association between blood tests and (adjusted) mortality depends on age. Mortality increases gradually or in a U-shaped manner with increasing blood test values. Age-adjusted numerical scores may improve risk stratification. Our results have implications for interpretation of blood tests and their use in risk stratification tools and acute care guidelines.Trial registration number Netherlands Trial Register (NTR) NL8422, 03/2020.

The association between presenting complaints and clinical outcomes in emergency department patients of different age categories.

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE: Although aging societies in Western Europe use presenting complaints (PCs) in emergency departments (EDs) triage systems to determine the urgency and severity of the care demand, it is unclear whether their prognostic value is age-dependent. OBJECTIVE: To assess the frequency and association of PCs with hospitalization and mortality across age categories. METHODS: An observational multicenter study using all consecutive visits of three EDs in the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database. Patients were stratified by age category (0-18; 19-50; 51-65; 66-80; >80 years), in which the association between PCs and case-mix adjusted hospitalization and mortality was studied using multivariable logistic regression analysis (adjusting for demographics, hospital, disease severity, comorbidity and other PCs). RESULTS: We included 172 104 ED-visits. The most frequent PCs were 'extremity problems' [range across age categories (13.5-40.8%)], 'feeling unwell' (9.5-23.4%), 'abdominal pain' (6.0-13.9%), 'dyspnea' (4.5-13.3%) and 'chest pain' (0.6-10.7%). For most PCs, the observed and the case-mix-adjusted odds for hospitalization and mortality increased the higher the age category. The most common PCs with the highest adjusted odds ratios (AORs, 95% CI) for hospitalization were 'diarrhea and vomiting' [2.30 (2.02-2.62)] and 'feeling unwell' [1.60 (1.48-1.73)]. Low hospitalization risk was found for 'chest pain' [0.58 (0.53-0.63)] and 'palpitations' [0.64 (0.58-0.71)]. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of PCs in ED patients varies with age, but the same PCs occur in all age categories. For most PCs, (case-mix adjusted) hospitalization and mortality vary across age categories. 'Chest pain' and 'palpitations,' usually triaged 'very urgent', carry a low risk for hospitalization and mortality.

Machine learning for developing a prediction model of hospital admission of emergency department patients: Hype or hope?

OBJECTIVE: Early identification of emergency department (ED) patients who need hospitalization is essential for quality of care and patient safety. We aimed to compare machine learning (ML) models predicting the hospitalization of ED patients and conventional regression techniques at three points in time after ED registration. METHODS: We analyzed consecutive ED patients of three hospitals using the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED). We developed prediction models for hospitalization using an increasing number of data available at triage, ∼30 min (including vital signs) and ∼2 h (including laboratory tests) after ED registration, using ML (random forest, gradient boosted decision trees, deep neural networks) and multivariable logistic regression analysis (including spline transformations for continuous predictors). Demographics, urgency, presenting complaints, disease severity and proxies for comorbidity, and complexity were used as covariates. We compared the performance using the area under the ROC curve in independent validation sets from each hospital. RESULTS: We included 172,104 ED patients of whom 66,782 (39 %) were hospitalized. The AUC of the multivariable logistic regression model was 0.82 (0.78-0.86) at triage, 0.84 (0.81-0.86) at ∼30 min and 0.83 (0.75-0.92) after ∼2 h. The best performing ML model over time was the gradient boosted decision trees model with an AUC of 0.84 (0.77-0.88) at triage, 0.86 (0.82-0.89) at ∼30 min and 0.86 (0.74-0.93) after ∼2 h. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that machine learning models had an excellent but similar predictive performance as the logistic regression model for predicting hospital admission. In comparison to the 30-min model, the 2-h model did not show a performance improvement. After further validation, these prediction models could support management decisions by real-time feedback to medical personal.

Effects of a general practitioner cooperative co-located with an emergency department on patient throughput.

BACKGROUND: In 2013 a General Practitioner Cooperative (GPC) was introduced at the Emergency Department (ED) of our hospital. One of the aims of this co-located GPC was to improve throughput of the remaining patients at the ED. To determine the change in patient flow, we assessed the number of self-referrals, redirection of self-referrals to the GPC and back to the ED, as well as ward and ICU admission rates and length of stay of the remaining ED population. METHODS: We conducted a four months' pre-post comparison before and after the implementation of a co-located GPC with an urban ED in the Netherlands. RESULTS: More than half of our ED patients were self-referrals. At triage, 54.5% of these self-referrals were redirected to the GPC. After assessment at the GPC, 8.5% of them were referred back to the ED. The number of patients treated at the ED declined with 20.3% after the introduction of the GPC. In the remaining ED population, there was a significant increase of highly urgent patients (P<0.001), regular admissions (P<0.001), and ICU admissions (P<0.001). Despite the decline of the number of patients at the ED, the total length of stay of patients treated at the ED increased from 14 682 hours in the two months' control period to 14 962 hours in the two months' intervention period, a total increase of 270 hours in two months (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Introduction of a GPC led to efficient redirection of self-referrals but failed to improve throughput of the remaining patients at the ED.

Effects of a general practitioner cooperative co-located with an emergency department on patient throughput / 世界急诊医学杂志（英文）

@#BACKGROUND: In 2013 a General Practitioner Cooperative (GPC) was introduced at the Emergency Department (ED) of our hospital. One of the aims of this co-located GPC was to improve throughput of the remaining patients at the ED. To determine the change in patient flow, we assessed the number of self-referrals, redirection of self-referrals to the GPC and back to the ED, as well as ward and ICU admission rates and length of stay of the remaining ED population. METHODS: We conducted a four months' pre-post comparison before and after the implementation of a co-located GPC with an urban ED in the Netherlands. RESULTS: More than half of our ED patients were self-referrals. At triage, 54.5％ of these self-referrals were redirected to the GPC. After assessment at the GPC, 8.5％ of them were referred back to the ED. The number of patients treated at the ED declined with 20.3％ after the introduction of the GPC. In the remaining ED population, there was a significant increase of highly urgent patients (P<0.001), regular admissions (P<0.001), and ICU admissions (P<0.001). Despite the decline of the number of patients at the ED, the total length of stay of patients treated at the ED increased from 14682 hours in the two months' control period to 14962 hours in the two months' intervention period, a total increase of 270 hours in two months (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Introduction of a GPC led to efficient redirection of self-referrals but failed to improve throughput of the remaining patients at the ED.

Emergency department crowding in The Netherlands: managers' experiences.

BACKGROUND: In The Netherlands, the state of emergency department (ED) crowding is unknown. Anecdotal evidence suggests that current ED patients experience a longer length of stay (LOS) compared to some years ago, which is indicative of ED crowding. However, no multicenter studies have been performed to quantify LOS and assess crowding at Dutch EDs. We performed this study to describe the current state of emergency departments in The Netherlands regarding patients' length of stay and ED nurse managers' experiences of crowding. METHODS: A survey was sent to all 94 ED nurse managers in The Netherlands with questions regarding the type of facility, annual ED census, and patients' LOS. Additional questions included whether crowding was ever a problem at the particular ED, how often it occurred, which time periods had the worst episodes of crowding, and what measures the particular ED had undertaken to improve patient flow. RESULTS: Surveys were collected from 63 EDs (67%). Mean annual ED visits were 24,936 (SD ± 9,840); mean LOS for discharged patients was 119 (SD ± 40) min and mean LOS for admitted patients 146 (SD ± 49) min. Consultation delays, laboratory and radiology delays, and hospital bed shortages for patients needing admission were the most cited reasons for crowding. Admitted patients had a longer LOS because of delays in obtaining inpatient beds. Thirty-nine of 57 respondents (68%) reported that crowding occurred several times a week or even daily, mostly between 12:00 and 20:00. Measures taken by hospitals to manage crowding included placing patients in hallways and using fasttrack with treatment of patients by trained nurse practitioners. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a relatively short LOS, frequent crowding appears to be a nationwide problem according to Dutch ED nurse managers, with 68% of them reporting that crowding occurred several times a week or even daily. Consultations delays, laboratory and radiology delays, and hospital bed shortage for patients needing admission were believed to be the most important factors contributing to ED crowding.

Diagnostic accuracy of emergency nurse practitioners versus physicians related to minor illnesses and injuries.

INTRODUCTION: Our objectives were to determine the incidence of missed injuries and inappropriately managed cases in patients with minor injuries and illnesses and to evaluate diagnostic accuracy of the emergency nurse practitioners (ENPs) compared with junior doctors/senior house officers (SHOs). METHODS: In a descriptive cohort study, 741 patients treated by ENPs were compared with a random sample of 741 patients treated by junior doctors/SHOs. Groups were compared regarding incidence and severity of missed injuries and inappropriately managed cases, waiting times, and length of stay. RESULTS: Within the total group, 29 of the 1,482 patients (1.9%) had a missed injury or were inappropriately managed. No statistically significant difference was found between the ENP and physician groups in terms of missed injuries or inappropriate management, with 9 errors (1.2%) by junior doctors/SHOs and 20 errors (2.7%) by ENPs. The most common reason for missed injuries was misinterpretation of radiographs (13 of 17 missed injuries). There was no significant difference in waiting time for treatment by junior doctors/SHOs versus ENPs (20 minutes vs 19 minutes). The mean length of stay was significantly longer for junior doctors/SHOs (65 minutes for ENPs and 85 minutes for junior doctors/SHOs; P < .001; 95% confidence interval, 72.32-77.41). DISCUSSION: ENPs showed high diagnostic accuracy, with 97.3% of the patients being correctly diagnosed and managed. No significant differences between nurse practitioners and physicians related to missed injuries and inappropriate management were detected.