Roxborough Park Community Wildfire Evacuation Drill: Data Collection and Model Benchmarking.

Wildfires are increasing in scale, frequency and longevity, and are affecting new locations as environmental conditions change. This paper presents a dataset collected during a community evacuation drill performed in Roxborough Park, Colorado (USA) in 2019. This is a wildland-urban interface community including approximately 900 homes. Data concerning several aspects of community response were collected through observations and surveys: initial population location, pre-evacuation times, route use, and arrival times at the evacuation assembly point. Data were used as inputs to benchmark two evacuation models that adopt different modelling approaches. The WUI-NITY platform and the Evacuation Management System model were applied across a range of scenarios where assumptions regarding pre-evacuation delays and the routes used were varied according to original data collection methods (and interpretation of the data generated). Results are mostly driven by the assumptions adopted for pre-evacuation time inputs. This is expected in communities with a low number of vehicles present on the road and relatively limited traffic congestion. The analysis enabled the sensitivity of the modelling approaches to different datasets to be explored, given the different modelling approaches adopted. The performance of the models were sensitive to the data employed (derived from either observations or self-reporting) and the evacuation phases addressed in them. This indicates the importance of monitoring the impact of including data in a model rather than simply on the data itself, as data affects models in different ways given the modelling methods employed. The dataset is released in open access and is deemed to be useful for future wildfire evacuation modelling calibration and validation efforts. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10694-023-01371-1.

Smouldering wildfires in peatlands, forests and the arctic: Challenges and perspectives.

Wildfires can be divided into two types, flaming or smouldering, depending on the dominant combustion processes. Both types are present in most wildfires, and despite being fundamentally different in chemical and physical terms, one transitions to the other. Traditionally, science has focused on flames, while smouldering is often misinterpreted. But smouldering wildfires are emerging as a global concern because they cause extensive air pollution, emit very large amounts of carbon, are difficult to detect and suppress, and could accelerate climate change. Central to the topic are smouldering peat fires that lead to the largest fires on Earth. Smouldering also dominates the residual burning after flames have died out and firebrand ignition. Finally, smouldering is an important part of Arctic wildfires, which are increasing in frequency. Here, we present a scientific overview of smouldering wildfires, the associated environmental and health issues, including climate change, and the challenges in prevention and mitigation.

Reduced chemical kinetics for microscale pyrolysis of softwood and hardwood.

This work studies the chemical kinetics of wood pyrolysis by comparing nine reduced reaction schemes against 22 microscale experiments of softwood and hardwood from the literature. The complexity of reaction schemes ranged from 1 to 12 reactions, with 2 to 7 species. Using multi-objective optimization for isothermal and non-isothermal conditions, the kinetic parameters for each reaction scheme were derived. It was found that the uncertainty of a prediction increases with the number of model parameters, but the accuracy does not always increase with the number of parameters. The appropriate reaction scheme for hardwood is three parallel reactions, as it presents the optimal balance between accuracy and uncertainty. For softwood, a higher complexity could be justified. This work shows the benefits of finding an appropriately complex kinetic scheme by building up complexity from simple schemes.

Simulation of fingering behavior in smoldering combustion using a cellular automaton.

Smoldering is the slow, low-temperature, flameless burning of porous fuels and the most persistent type of combustion phenomena. It is a complex physical process that is not yet completely understood, but it is known that it is driven by heat transfer, mass transfer, and fuel chemistry. A specific case of high interest and complexity is fingering behavior. Fingering is an instability that occurs when a thin fuel layer burns against an oxygen current. These instabilities appear when conduction rather than convection is the dominant mode of heat transfer to the fuel ahead and the availability of oxygen is limited during the combustion of a thin fuel, such as paper. The pattern of the fingers can be characterized through the distance between them and their width, and can be classified into three different regimes: isolated fingers, tip-splitting fingers, or no fingers forming and a smooth continuous front. In this paper, a multilayer cellular automaton based on three governing principles (heat, oxygen, and fuel) is shown to reproduce all the regimes and the details of finger structures observed in previous experiments. It is shown how when oxygen is not limited, a smooth smoldering front is formed. If the oxygen speed decreases beyond a critical value, fingers appear first as tip-splitting fingers and later as isolated fingers, increasing the distance between them and decreasing their thickness. The oxygen consumed during oxidation influences these critical values with a positive correlation. This cellular automaton provides an alternative approach to simulate smoldering combustion in large systems over long times. That the model is able to reproduce the complex pattern formation seen in a fingering experiment validates the model. In the future, we could apply the model in various other geometries to make predictions on the outcome of smoldering combustion processes.

Interactions of Earth's atmospheric oxygen and fuel moisture in smouldering wildfires.

Vegetation, wildfire and atmospheric oxygen on Earth have changed throughout geological times, and are dependent on each other, determining the evolution of ecosystems, the carbon cycle, and the climate, as found in the fossil record. Previous work in the literature has only studied flaming wildfires, but smouldering is the most persistent type of fire phenomena, consuming large amounts of biomass. In this study, the dependence of smouldering fires in peatlands, the largest wildfires on Earth, with atmospheric oxygen is investigated. A physics-based computational model of reactive porous media for peat fires, which has been previously validated against experiments, is used. Simulations are conducted for wide ranges of atmospheric oxygen concentrations and fuel moisture contents to find thresholds for ignition and extinction. Results show that the predicted rate of spread increases in oxygen-rich atmospheres, while it decreases over wetter fuels. A novel nonlinear relationship between critical oxygen and critical moisture is found. More importantly, we show that compared to previous work on flaming fires, smouldering fires can be ignited and sustained at substantially higher moisture contents (up to 100% MC vs. 40% for 21% oxygen level), and lower oxygen concentrations (down to 13% vs. 16%). This defines a new atmospheric oxygen threshold for wildfires (13%), even lower than previously thought in Earth Sciences (16%). This finding should lead to reinterpretation of how the char remains observed in the fossil record constrain the lower concentration of oxygen in Earth's atmosphere in geological timescale.

Effects of spatial heterogeneity in moisture content on the horizontal spread of peat fires.

The gravimetric moisture content of peat is the main factor limiting the ignition and spread propagation of smouldering fires. Our aim is to use controlled laboratory experiments to better understand how the spread of smouldering fires is influenced in natural landscape conditions where the moisture content of the top peat layer is not homogeneous. In this paper, we study for the first time the spread of peat fires across a spatial matrix of two moisture contents (dry/wet) in the laboratory. The experiments were undertaken using an open-top insulated box (22×18×6cm) filled with milled peat. The peat was ignited at one side of the box initiating smouldering and horizontal spread. Measurements of the peak temperature inside the peat, fire duration and longwave thermal radiation from the burning samples revealed important local changes of the smouldering behaviour in response to sharp gradients in moisture content. Both, peak temperatures and radiation in wetter peat (after the moisture gradient) were sensitive to the drier moisture condition (preceding the moisture gradient). Drier peat conditions before the moisture gradient led to higher temperatures and higher radiation flux from the fire during the first 6cm of horizontal spread into a wet peat patch. The total spread distance into a wet peat patch was affected by the moisture content gradient. We predicted that in most peat moisture gradients of relevance to natural ecosystems the fire self-extinguishes within the first 10cm of horizontal spread into a wet peat patch. Spread distances of more than 10cm are limited to wet peat patches below 160% moisture content (mass of water per mass of dry peat). We found that spatial gradients of moisture content have important local effects on the horizontal spread and should be considered in field and modelling studies.

Thermochemical conversion of biomass in smouldering combustion across scales: The roles of heterogeneous kinetics, oxygen and transport phenomena.

The thermochemical conversion of biomass in smouldering combustion is investigated here by combining experiments and modeling at two scales: matter (1mg) and bench (100g) scales. Emphasis is put on the effect of oxygen (0-33vol.%) and oxidation reactions because these are poorly studied in the literature in comparison to pyrolysis. The results are obtained for peat as a representative biomass for which there is high-quality experimental data published previously. Three kinetic schemes are explored, including various steps of drying, pyrolysis and oxidation. The kinetic parameters are found using the Kissinger-Genetic Algorithm method, and then implemented in a one-dimensional model of heat and mass transfer. The predictions are validated with thermogravimetric and bench-scale experiments and then analyzed to unravel the role of heterogeneous reaction. This is the first time that the influence of oxygen on biomass smouldering is explained in terms of both chemistry and transport phenomena across scales.

Volumetric scale-up of smouldering remediation of contaminated materials.

Smouldering remediation is a process that has been introduced recently to address non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) contamination in soils and other porous media. Previous work demonstrated this process to be highly effective across a wide range of contaminants and soil conditions at the bench scale. In this work, a suite of 12 experiments explored the effectiveness of the process as operating scale was increased 1000-fold from the bench (0.003m(3)) to intermediate (0.3m(3)) and pilot field-scale (3m(3)) with coal tar and petrochemical NAPLs. As scale increased, remediation efficiency of 97-99.95% was maintained. Smouldering propagation velocities of 0.6-14×10(-5)m/s at Darcy air fluxes of 1.54-9.15cm/s were consistent with observations in previous bench studies, as was the dependence on air flux. The pilot field-scale experiments demonstrated the robustness of the process despite heterogeneities, localised operation, controllability through airflow supply, and the importance of a minimum air flux for self-sustainability. Experiments at the intermediate scale established a minimum-observed, not minimum-possible, initial concentration of 12,000mg/kg in mixed oil waste, providing support for the expectation that lower thresholds for self-sustaining smouldering decreased with increasing scale. Once the threshold was exceeded, basic process characteristics of average peak temperature, destructive efficiency, and treatment velocity were relatively independent of scale.

Self-sustaining smoldering combustion for NAPL remediation: laboratory evaluation of process sensitivity to key parameters.

Smoldering combustion has been introduced recently as a potential remediation strategy for soil contaminated by nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs). Published proof-of-concept experiments demonstrated that the process can be self-sustaining (i.e., requires energy input only to start the process) and achieve essentially complete remediation of the contaminated soil. Those initial experiments indicated that the process may be applicable across a broad range of NAPLs and soils. This work presents the results of a series of bench-scale experiments that examine in detail the sensitivity of the process to a range of key parameters, including contaminant concentration, water saturation, soil type, and air flow rates for two contaminants, coal tar and crude oil. Smoldering combustion was observed to be self-sustaining in the range 28,400 to 142,000 mg/kg for coal tar and in the range 31,200 to 104,000 mg/kg for crude oil, for the base case air flux. The process remained self-sustaining and achieved effective remediation across a range of initial water concentrations (0 to 177,000 mg/kg water) despite extended ignition times and decreased temperatures and velocities of the reaction front. The process also exhibited self-sustaining and effective remediation behavior across a range of fine to coarse sand grain sizes up to a threshold maximum value between 6 mm and 10 mm. Propagation velocity is observed to be highly dependent on air flux, and smoldering was observed to be self-sustaining down to an air Darcy flux of at least 0.5 cm/s for both contaminants. The extent of remediation in these cases was determined to be at least 99.5% and 99.9% for crude oil and coal tar, respectively. Moreover, no physical evidence of contamination was detected in the treatment zone for any case where a self-sustaining reaction was achieved. Lateral heat losses to the external environment were observed to significantly affect the smoldering process at the bench scale, suggesting that the field-scale lower bounds on concentration and air flux and upper bound on grain size were not achieved; larger scale experiments and field trials where lateral heat losses are much less significant are necessary to define these process limits for the purposes of field application. This work provides valuable design data for pilot field trials of both in situ and ex situ smoldering remediation applications.

Small-scale experiments of self-sustaining decomposition of NPK fertilizer and application to events aboard the Ostedijk in 2007.

Small-scale experiments to investigate the self-sustaining decomposition (SSD) behaviour of NPK 16.16.16 fertilizer have been undertaken. These experiments show that this material will undergo self-sustaining decomposition and are used to give insight into the behaviour of the reaction. A three-step decomposition process is observed leading to a self-sustained reaction reaching temperatures of 200-350°C. The measured heat of reaction is 0.73-1.8 MJ/kg. Measurements are applied to the events that occurred aboard the ship Ostedijk in 2007 in which a SSD reaction occurred. The mass loss rate from the cargo was calculated to range from 0.5 kg/s on the first day to 12 kg/s on the last day. From this measurement, the maximum fire size was estimated to be in the range 5.8-29 MW.

Baseline intrinsic flammability of Earth's ecosystems estimated from paleoatmospheric oxygen over the past 350 million years.

Atmospheric oxygen (O(2)) is estimated to have varied greatly throughout Earth's history and has been capable of influencing wildfire activity wherever fuel and ignition sources were present. Fires consume huge quantities of biomass in all ecosystems and play an important role in biogeochemical cycles. This means that understanding the influence of O(2) on past fire activity has far-reaching consequences for the evolution of life and Earth's biodiversity over geological timescales. We have used a strong electrical ignition source to ignite smoldering fires, and we measured their self-sustaining propagation in atmospheres of different oxygen concentrations. These data have been used to build a model that we use to estimate the baseline intrinsic flammability of Earth's ecosystems according to variations in O(2) over the past 350 million years (Ma). Our aim is to highlight times in Earth's history when fire has been capable of influencing the Earth system. We reveal that fire activity would be greatly suppressed below 18.5% O(2), entirely switched off below 16% O(2), and rapidly enhanced between 19-22% O(2). We show that fire activity and, therefore, its influence on the Earth system would have been high during the Carboniferous (350-300 Ma) and Cretaceous (145-65 Ma) periods; intermediate in the Permian (299-251 Ma), Late Triassic (285-201 Ma), and Jurassic (201-145 Ma) periods; and surprisingly low to lacking in the Early-Middle Triassic period between 250-240 Ma. These baseline variations in Earth's flammability must be factored into our understanding of past vegetation, biodiversity, evolution, and biogeochemical cycles.