Physical Function of RA patients Tapering Treatment-A Post Hoc Analysis of the Randomized Controlled RETRO Trial.

Several studies have shown that tapering or stopping disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients in sustained remission is feasible. However, tapering/stopping bears the risk of decline in physical function as some patients may relapse and face increased disease activity. Here, we analyzed the impact of tapering or stopping DMARD treatment on the physical function of RA patients. The study was a post hoc analysis of physical functional worsening for 282 patients with RA in sustained remission tapering and stopping DMARD treatment in the prospective randomized RETRO study. HAQ and DAS-28 scores were determined in baseline samples of patients continuing DMARD (arm 1), tapering their dose by 50% (arm 2), or stopping after tapering (arm 3). Patients were followed over 1 year, and HAQ and DAS-28 scores were evaluated every 3 months. The effect of treatment reduction strategy on functional worsening was assessed in a recurrent-event Cox regression model with a study-group (control, taper, and taper/stop) as the predictor. Two-hundred and eighty-two patients were analyzed. In 58 patients, functional worsening was observed. The incidences suggest a higher probability of functional worsening in patients tapering and/or stopping DMARDs, which is likely due to higher relapse rates in these individuals. At the end of the study, however, functional worsening was similar among the groups. Point estimates and survival curves show that the decline in functionality according to HAQ after tapering or discontinuation of DMARDs in RA patients with stable remission is associated with recurrence, but not with an overall functional decline.

Advanced machine learning for predicting individual risk of flares in rheumatoid arthritis patients tapering biologic drugs.

BACKGROUND: Biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) can be tapered in some rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients in sustained remission. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility of building a model to estimate the individual flare probability in RA patients tapering bDMARDs using machine learning methods. METHODS: Longitudinal clinical data of RA patients on bDMARDs from a randomized controlled trial of treatment withdrawal (RETRO) were used to build a predictive model to estimate the probability of a flare. Four basic machine learning models were trained, and their predictions were additionally combined to train an ensemble learning method, a stacking meta-classifier model to predict the individual flare probability within 14 weeks after each visit. Prediction performance was estimated using nested cross-validation as the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC). Predictor importance was estimated using the permutation importance approach. RESULTS: Data of 135 visits from 41 patients were included. A model selection approach based on nested cross-validation was implemented to find the most suitable modeling formalism for the flare prediction task as well as the optimal model hyper-parameters. Moreover, an approach based on stacking different classifiers was successfully applied to create a powerful and flexible prediction model with the final measured AUROC of 0.81 (95%CI 0.73-0.89). The percent dose change of bDMARDs, clinical disease activity (DAS-28 ESR), disease duration, and inflammatory markers were the most important predictors of a flare. CONCLUSION: Machine learning methods were deemed feasible to predict flares after tapering bDMARDs in RA patients in sustained remission.

Treatment tapering and stopping in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in stable remission (RETRO): a multicentre, randomised, controlled, open-label, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Owing to increasing remission rates, the management of patients with rheumatoid arthritis in sustained remission is of growing interest. The Rheumatoid Arthritis in Ongoing Remission (RETRO) study investigated tapering and withdrawal of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in stable remission to test whether remission could be retained without the need to take DMARD therapy despite an absence of symptoms. METHODS: RETRO was an investigator-initiated, multicentre, prospective, randomised, controlled, open-label, parallel-group phase 3 trial in patients aged at least 18 years with rheumatoid arthritis for at least 12 months before randomisation who were in sustained Disease Activity Score using 28 joints with erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) remission (score <2·6 units). Eligible patients were recruited consecutively from 14 German hospitals or rheumatology practices and randomly assigned (1:1:1) without stratification and regardless of baseline treatment, using a sequence that was computer-generated by the study statistician, to continue 100% dose DMARD (continue group), taper to 50% dose DMARD (taper group), or 50% dose DMARD for 6 months before stopping DMARDs (stop group). Neither patients nor investigators were masked to the treatment assignment. Patients were assessed every 3 months and screened for disease activity and relapse. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients in sustained DAS28-ESR remission without relapse at 12 months, analysed using a log-rank test of trend and Cox regression. Analysis by a trained statistician of the primary outcome and safety was done in a modified intention-to-treat population that included participants with non-missing baseline data. This study is completed and closed to new participants and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02779114). FINDINGS: Between May 26, 2010, and May 29, 2018, 303 patients were enrolled and allocated to continue (n=100), taper (n=102), or stop DMARDs (n=101). 282 (93%) of 303 patients were analysed (93 [93%] of 100 for continue, 93 [91%] of 102 for taper, and 96 [95%] of 101 for stop). Remission was maintained at 12 months by 81·2% (95% CI 73·3-90·0) in the continue group, 58·6% (49·2-70·0) in the taper group, and 43·3% (34·6-55·5) in the stop group (p=0·0005 with log-rank test for trend). Hazard ratios for relapse were 3·02 (1·69-5·40; p=0.0003) for the taper group and 4·34 (2·48-7·60; p<0.0001)) for the stop group, in comparison with the continue group. The majority of patients who relapsed regained remission after reintroduction of 100% dose DMARDs. Serious adverse events occurred in ten of 93 (11%) patients in the continue group, seven of 93 (8%) patients in taper group, and 13 of 96 (14%) patients in the stop group. None were considered to be related to the intervention. The most frequent type of serious adverse event was injuries or procedural complications (n=9). INTERPRETATION: Reducing antirheumatic drugs in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in stable remission is feasible, with maintenance of remission occurring in about half of the patients. Because relapse rates were significantly higher in patients who tapered or stopped antirheumatic drugs than in patients who continued with a 100% dose, such approaches will require tight monitoring of disease activity. However, remission was regained after reintroduction of antirheumatic treatments in most of those who relapsed in this study. These results might help to prevent overtreatment in a substantial number of patients with rheumatoid arthritis. FUNDING: None.

Cost-effective Tapering Algorithm in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: Combination of Multibiomarker Disease Activity Score and Autoantibody Status.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the effect of a risk-stratified disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)-tapering algorithm based on multibiomarker disease activity (MBDA) score and anticitrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) on direct treatment costs for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in sustained remission. METHODS: The study was a posthoc retrospective analysis of direct treatment costs for 146 patients with RA in sustained remission tapering and stopping DMARD treatment, in the prospective randomized RETRO study. MBDA scores and ACPA status were determined in baseline samples of patients continuing DMARD (arm 1), tapering their dose by 50% (arm 2), or stopping after tapering (arm 3). Patients were followed over 1 year, and direct treatment costs were evaluated every 3 months. MBDA and ACPA status were used as predictors creating a risk-stratified tapering algorithm based on relapse rates. RESULTS: RA patients with a low MBDA score (< 30 units) and negative ACPA showed the lowest relapse risk (19%), while double-positive patients showed high relapse risk (61%). In ACPA-negative and MBDA-negative (< 30 units), and ACPA or MBDA single-positive (> 30 units) groups, DMARD tapering appears feasible. Considering only patients without flare, direct costs for synthetic and biologic DMARD in the ACPA/MBDA-negative and single positive groups (n = 41) would have been €372,245.16 for full-dose treatment over 1 year. Tapering and stopping DMARD in this low-risk relapse group allowed a reduction of €219,712.03 of DMARD costs. Average reduction of DMARD costs per patient was €5358.83. CONCLUSION: Combining MBDA score and ACPA status at baseline may allow risk stratification for successful DMARD tapering and cost-effective use of biologic DMARD in patients in deep remission as defined by the 28-joint count Disease Activity Score using erythrocyte sedimentation rate.

Antimodified protein antibody response pattern influences the risk for disease relapse in patients with rheumatoid arthritis tapering disease modifying antirheumatic drugs.

OBJECTIVE: To perform a detailed analysis of the autoantibody response against post-translationally modified proteins in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in sustained remission and to explore whether its composition influences the risk for disease relapse when tapering disease modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) therapy. METHODS: Immune responses against 10 citrullinated, homocitrullinated/carbamylated and acetylated peptides, as well as unmodified vimentin (control) and cyclic citrullinated peptide 2 (CCP2) were tested in baseline serum samples from 94 patients of the RETRO study. Patients were classified according to the number of autoantibody reactivities (0-1/10, 2-5/10 and >5/10) or specificity groups (citrullination, carbamylation and acetylation; 0-3) and tested for their risk to develop relapses after DMARD tapering. Demographic and disease-specific parameters were included in multivariate logistic regression analysis for defining the role of autoantibodies in predicting relapse. RESULTS: Patients varied in their antimodified protein antibody response with the extremes from recognition of no (0/10) to all antigens (10/10). Antibodies against citrullinated vimentin (51%), acetylated ornithine (46%) and acetylated lysine (37%) were the most frequently observed subspecificities. Relapse risk significantly (p=0.011) increased from 18% (0-1/10 reactivities) to 34% (2-5/10) and 55% (>5/10). With respect to specificity groups (0-3), relapse risk significantly (p=0.021) increased from 18% (no reactivity) to 28%, 36% and finally to 52% with one, two or three antibody specificity groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The data suggest that the pattern of antimodified protein antibody response determines the risk of disease relapse in patients with RA tapering DMARD therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: 2009-015740-42; Results.

Prediction of disease relapses by multibiomarker disease activity and autoantibody status in patients with rheumatoid arthritis on tapering DMARD treatment.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the role of multibiomarker disease activity (MBDA) score in predicting disease relapses in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in sustained remission who tapered disease modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) therapy in RETRO, a prospective randomised controlled trial. METHODS: MBDA scores (scale 1-100) were determined based on 12 inflammation markers in baseline serum samples from 94 patients of the RETRO study. MBDA scores were compared between patients relapsing or remaining in remission when tapering DMARDs. Demographic and disease-specific parameters were included in multivariate logistic regression analysis for defining predictors of relapse. RESULTS: Moderate-to-high MBDA scores were found in 33% of patients with RA overall. Twice as many patients who relapsed (58%) had moderate/high MBDA compared with patients who remained in remission (21%). Baseline MBDA scores were significantly higher in patients with RA who were relapsing than those remaining in stable remission (N=94; p=0.0001) and those tapering/stopping (N=59; p=0.0001). Multivariate regression analysis identified MBDA scores as independent predictor for relapses in addition to anticitrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) status. Relapse rates were low (13%) in patients who were MBDA-/ACPA-, moderate in patients who were MBDA+/ACPA- (33.3%) and MBDA-ACPA+ (31.8%) and high in patients who were MBDA+/ACPA+ (76.4%). CONCLUSIONS: MBDA improved the prediction of relapses in patients with RA in stable remission undergoing DMARD tapering. If combined with ACPA testing, MBDA allowed prediction of relapse in more than 80% of the patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: EudraCT 2009-015740-42.

Relapse rates in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in stable remission tapering or stopping antirheumatic therapy: interim results from the prospective randomised controlled RETRO study.

OBJECTIVE: To prospectively analyse the risk for disease relapses in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in sustained remission, either continuing, tapering or stopping disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) in a prospective randomised controlled trial. METHODS: Reduction of Therapy in patients with Rheumatoid arthritis in Ongoing remission is a multicentre, randomised controlled, parallel-group phase 3 trial evaluating the effects of tapering and stopping all conventional and/or biological DMARDs in patients with RA in stable remission. Patients (disease activity score 28 (DAS28)<2.6 for least 6 months) were randomised into three arms, either continuing DMARDs (arm 1), tapering DMARDs by 50% (arm 2) or stopping DMARDs after 6 months tapering (arm 3). The primary endpoint was sustained remission during 12 months. RESULTS: In this interim analysis, the first 101 patients who completed the study were analysed. At baseline, all patients fulfilled DAS28 remission and 70% also American College of Rheumatology- European League Against Rheumatism Boolean remission. 82.2% of the patients received methotrexate, 40.6% biological DMARDs and 9.9% other DMARDs. Overall, 67 patients (66.3%) remained in remission for 12 months, whereas 34 patients (33.7%) relapsed. The incidence of relapses was related to study arms (p=0.007; arm 1: 15.8%; arm 2: 38.9%; arm 3: 51.9%). Multivariate logistic regression identified anticitrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) positivity (p=0.038) and treatment reduction (in comparison to continuation) as predictors for relapse (arm 2: p=0.012; arm 3: p=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: This randomised controlled study testing three different treatment strategies in patients with RA in sustained remission demonstrated that more than half of the patients maintain in remission after tapering or stopping conventional and biological DMARD treatment. Relapses occurred particularly in the first 6 months after treatment reduction and were associated with the presence of ACPA. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: 2009-015740-42.