Sex ratio of Western Bluebirds Sialia mexicana is mediated by phenology and clutch size.

Mothers may produce more of one sex to maximize their fitness if there are differences in the cost of producing each sex or there are differences in their relative reproductive value. Breeding date and clutch size are known to influence offspring sex ratios in birds through sex differences in dispersal, social behaviours, differential mortality, and available food resources. We tested if breeding date, clutch size and drought conditions influenced offspring sex ratios in a sexually size-monomorphic species, the Western Bluebird, by interrogating a 21-year dataset. After controlling for differential mortality, we found that hatch dates late in the breeding season were associated with the production of more females, suggesting that the value of producing males declines as the breeding season progresses. When clutch size was taken into account, small clutches yielded significantly more females late in the breeding season compared to the early and middle parts of the breeding season that produced significantly more males. Large clutches early in the season tended to produce more females, although this was not significant. Drought severity was not correlated with sex ratio adjustment. We propose and discuss several explanations for these patterns, including male offspring, but not female offspring, acting as helpers, increased female nestling provisioning late in the breeding season, differences in food abundance, and egg-laying order. Future work will help to uncover the mechanisms leading to these patterns. Identifying patterns and mechanisms of sex ratio skew from long-term datasets is important for informing predictions regarding life-history trade-offs in wildlife populations.

Investigations of contaminated fluvial sediment deposits: merging of statistical and geomorphic approaches.

Concentrations of contaminants in sediment deposits can have large spatial variability resulting from geomorphic processes acting over long time periods. Thus, systematic (e.g., regularly spaced sample locations) or random sampling approaches might be inefficient and/or lead to highly biased results. We demonstrate the bias associated with systematic sampling and compare these results to those achieved by methods that merge a geomorphic approach to evaluating the physical system and stratified random sampling concepts. By combining these approaches, we achieve a more efficient and less biased characterization of sediment contamination in fluvial systems. These methods are applied using a phased sampling approach to characterize radiological contamination in sediment deposits in two semiarid canyons that have received historical releases from the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Uncertainty in contaminant inventory was used as a metric to evaluate the adequacy of sampling during these phased investigations. Simple, one-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations were used to estimate uncertainty in contaminant inventory. We also show how one can use stratified random sampling theory to help estimate uncertainty in mean contaminant concentrations.

Predicting the fate of sediment and pollutants in river floodplains.

Geological processes such as erosion and sedimentation redistribute toxic pollutants introduced to the landscape by mining, agriculture, weapons development, and other human activities. A significant portion of these contaminants is insoluble, adsorbing to soils and sediments after being released. Geologists have long understood that much of this sediment is stored in river floodplains, which are increasingly recognized as important nonpoint sources of pollution in rivers. However, the fate of contaminated sediment has generally been analyzed using hydrodynamic models of in-channel processes, ignoring particle exchange with the floodplain. Here, we present a stochastic theory of sediment redistribution in alluvial valley floors that tracks particle-bound pollutants and explicitly considers sediment storage within floodplains. We use the theory to model the future redistribution and radioactive decay of 137Cs currently stored on sediment in floodplains at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) in New Mexico. Model results indicate that floodplain storage significantly reduces the rate of sediment delivery from upper Los Alamos Canyon, allowing 50% of the 137Cs currently residing in the valley floor to decay radioactively before leaving LANL. A sensitivity analysis shows that the rate of sediment overturn in the valley (and hence, the total amount of radioactive 137Cs predicted to leave LANL) is significantly controlled by the rate of sediment exchange with the floodplain. Our results emphasize that flood plain sedimentation and erosion processes can strongly influence the redistribution of anthropogenic pollutants in fluvial environments. We introduce a new theoretical framework for examining this interaction, which can provide a scientific basis for decision-making in a wide range of river basin management scenarios.