Predicting pediatric severe asthma exacerbations: an administrative claims-based predictive model.

OBJECTIVE: Previous machine learning approaches fail to consider race and ethnicity and social determinants of health (SDOH) to predict childhood asthma exacerbations. A predictive model for asthma exacerbations in children is developed to explore the importance of race and ethnicity, rural-urban commuting area (RUCA) codes, the Child Opportunity Index (COI), and other ICD-10 SDOH in predicting asthma outcomes. METHODS: Insurance and coverage claims data from the Arkansas All-Payer Claims Database were used to capture risk factors. We identified a cohort of 22,631 children with asthma aged 5-18 years with 2 years of continuous Medicaid enrollment and at least one asthma diagnosis in 2018. The goal was to predict asthma-related hospitalizations and asthma-related emergency department (ED) visits in 2019. The analytic sample was 59% age 5-11 years, 39% White, 33% Black, and 6% Hispanic. Conditional random forest models were used to train the model. RESULTS: The model yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 72%, sensitivity of 55% and specificity of 78% in the OOB samples and AUC of 73%, sensitivity of 58% and specificity of 77% in the training samples. Consistent with previous literature, asthma-related hospitalization or ED visits in the previous year (2018) were the two most important variables in predicting hospital or ED use in the following year (2019), followed by the total number of reliever and controller medications. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive models for asthma-related exacerbation achieved moderate accuracy, but race and ethnicity, ICD-10 SDOH, RUCA codes, and COI measures were not important in improving model accuracy.

Economic Report of General Inpatient Hospice in an Academic Medical Center.

This study examined if there was difference in cost of care after implementation of scattered bed inpatient hospice, first implemented in October 2021 in an Academic Medical Center in Arkansas. This retrospective, cross-sectional study compared the cost of care during the pre-implementation phase (n = 121, July 2020-March 2021) to patients admitted to hospice care (n = 84, October 2021-June 2022). Hospice length of stay (LOS) was 4 times longer than the LOS after a Do Not Resuscitate order (DNR) was placed for patients in the pre-implementation period. The end of life costs after the implementation of inpatient hospice was 69% less than the end of life costs in the pre-implementation period.

Asthma Quality Measurement and Adverse Outcomes in Medicaid-Enrolled Children.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between the asthma medication ratio (AMR) quality measure and adverse outcomes among Medicaid-enrolled children with asthma in Arkansas, given concerns regarding the utility of the AMR in evaluating pediatric risk of asthma-related adverse events (AAEs). METHODS: We used the Arkansas All-Payer Claims Database to identify Medicaid-enrolled children with asthma using a nonrestrictive case definition and additionally using the standard Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS) persistent asthma definition. We assessed the AMR using the traditional dichotomous HEDIS AMR categorization and across 4 expanded AMR categories. Regression models assessed associations between AMR and AAE including hospitalization and emergency department utilization, with models conducted overall and by race and ethnicity. RESULTS: Of the 22 788 children in the analysis, 9.0% had an AAE (6.7% asthma-related emergency department visits; 3.0% asthma-related hospitalizations). We found poor correlation between AMR and AAE, with higher rates of AAE (10.5%) among children with AMR ≥0.5 compared with AMR <0.5 (8.5%; P < .001), and similar patterns stratified by racial and ethnic subgroups. Expanded AMR categorization revealed notable differences in associations between AMR and AAEs, compared with traditional dichotomous categorization, with worse performance in Black children. CONCLUSIONS: The AMR performed poorly in identifying risk of adverse outcomes among Medicaid-enrolled children with asthma. These findings underscore concerns of the utility of the AMR in population health management and reliance on restrictive HEDIS definitions. New population health frameworks incorporating broader considerations that accurately identify at-risk children are needed to improve equity in asthma management and outcomes.

Socioeconomic Determinants of Remote Patient Monitoring Implementation Among Rural and Urban Hospitals.

Introduction: Remote patient monitoring (RPM) is a form of telehealth that improves quality of care for chronic disease treatment and reduces hospital readmission rates. Geographical proximity to health care is important for individuals of low socioeconomic status (SES) who face additional financial and transportation barriers. The goal of this study was to assess the association between social determinants of health and adoption of RPM. Methods: This cross-sectional study analyzed data from hospitals that responded to the American Hospital Association's Annual Survey (2018) and spatially linked census tract-level environmental and social determinants of health obtained from the Social Vulnerability Index (2018). Results: A total of 4,206 hospitals (1,681 rural and 2,525 urban hospitals) met study criteria. Rural hospitals near households in the lower middle quartile SES were associated with a 33.5% lower likelihood of having adopted RPM for chronic care management compared with rural hospitals near households in the highest quartile SES (adjusted odds ratios [aOR] = 0.665; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.453-0.977). Urban hospitals near households in the lowest quartile SES were associated with a 41.9% lower likelihood of having adopted RPM for chronic care management compared with urban hospitals near households in the highest quartile SES (aOR = 0.581; 95% CI: 0.435-0.775). Similar trends in accessibility were found with RPM for postdischarge services among urban hospitals. Conclusion: Our findings highlight the importance of hospital responsibility and state and federal policy approaches toward ensuring equitable access to RPM services for patients characterized by lower SES.

Identification of racial/ethnic disparities associated with severe maternal morbidity using the Arkansas All-Payer Claims Database (2013-2017).

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of maternal characteristics on the odds of severe maternal morbidity (SMM) through 42 days postpartum. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective observational study of 77 172 births using birth certificate and insurance claims data from the Arkansas All Payers Claims Database, years 2013-2017, to identify racial disparities associated with SMM for births between April 1, 2014, and November 19, 2017. METHODS: Multiple logistic regression was used to examine the effect of sociodemographic factors and clinical comorbidities on the odds of SMM among non-Hispanic white ("white"), non-Hispanic Black ("Black"), and Hispanic women. RESULTS: The rate of SMM was 227.41 per 10 000 births, with Black women (330 per 10 000 births; 95% CI: 296.16-366.38), having a significantly higher rates than white women (197; 95% CI: 171.72-225.84) and Hispanic women (180; 95% CI: 155.86-207.54). After adjusting for maternal demographics, birth-related clinical variables, and comorbidities, SMM remained higher among Black women (aOR 1.37; 95% CI 1.11-1.70) relative to white women. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidities, socioeconomic factors, and other factors did not fully explain the Black-white disparities in SMM. Persistent disparities in the rates of SMM throughout 42 days postpartum among Black women relative to white women points to the need for higher quality, more equitable care for women of color in the fist months postpartum.

Impact of COVID-19 on the characteristics of opioid overdose deaths in Arkansas.

BACKGROUND: In the US, spikes in drug overdose deaths overlapping with the COVID-19 pandemic create concern that persons who use drugs are especially vulnerable. This study aimed to compare the trends in opioid overdose deaths and characterize opioid overdose deaths by drug subtype and person characteristics pre-COVID (2017-2019) and one-year post-COVID-19 emergence (2020). METHODS: We obtained death certificates on drug overdose deaths in Arkansas from January 1, 2017, through December 31, 2020. Our analyses consisted of an interrupted time-series and segmented regression analysis to assess the impact of COVID-19 on the number of opioid overdose deaths. RESULTS: The proportion of opioid overdose deaths increased by 36% post-COVID emergence (95% CI: 14%, 59%). The trend in overdose deaths involving synthetic narcotics other than methadone, such as fentanyl and tramadol, has increased since 2018 (74 in 2018 vs 79 in 2019; p=0.02 and 79 in 2019 versus 158 in 2020; p = 0.03). Opioid overdose deaths involving methamphetamine have more than doubled (36 in 2019 vs 82 in 2020; p = 0.06) despite remaining steady from 2018 to 2019. Synthetic narcotics have surpassed methamphetamine (71% vs. 37%) as the leading cause of opioid overdose deaths in Arkansas during the pandemic. This study found that synthetic narcotics are the significant drivers of the increase in opioid overdose deaths in Arkansas during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The co-occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the drug abuse epidemic further highlights the increased need for expanding awareness and availability of resources for treating substance use disorders.

Impact of the Transition from ICD-9-CM to ICD-10-CM on the Rates of Severe Maternal Morbidity in Arkansas: An Analysis of Claims Data.

Background: Severe maternal morbidity (SMM) is considered as a near miss for maternal death, therefore it is crucial to identify and prevent SMM. Medical insurance claims can be used to identify SMM. There was a national transition from the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) to International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification/Procedure Coding System (ICD-10-CM/PCS) in October 2015. Objective: This study investigates the impact of transition from ICD-9-CM to ICD-10-CM on the rates of SMM in the state of Arkansas using birth certificates linked with insurance claims data in the Arkansas All-Payer Claims Database (APCD). Study Design: Birth certificates between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2017, were linked to insurance claims data from the APCD. SMM was defined using the algorithm provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, using ICD-9 codes for births before October 1, 2015, and ICD-10-CM codes for births on or after October 1, 2015. Results: The incidence of SMM increased after transition to the ICD-10-CM system in Arkansas. The relatively higher rate of SMM in ICD-10-CM versus ICD-9-CM was greater in magnitude on the delivery day and throughout the 42-day postpartum period (odds ratio [OR]: 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-1.42) compared with the rate on the day of delivery (OR: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.06-1.36). When excluding blood transfusions, the higher rate of SMM during the ICD-10 era was even greater both in the delivery day and 42-day postpartum period (OR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.49-1.85) and on the day of delivery (OR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.31-1.90).

Understanding racial disparities in severe maternal morbidity using Bayesian network analysis.

Previous studies have evaluated the marginal effect of various factors on the risk of severe maternal morbidity (SMM) using regression approaches. We add to this literature by utilizing a Bayesian network (BN) approach to understand the joint effects of clinical, demographic, and area-level factors. We conducted a retrospective observational study using linked birth certificate and insurance claims data from the Arkansas All-Payer Claims Database (APCD), for the years 2013 through 2017. We used various learning algorithms and measures of arc strength to choose the most robust network structure. We then performed various conditional probabilistic queries using Monte Carlo simulation to understand disparities in SMM. We found that anemia and hypertensive disorder of pregnancy may be important clinical comorbidities to target in order to reduce SMM overall as well as racial disparities in SMM.