Retention and Predictors of Attrition Among People Living With HIV on Antiretroviral Therapy in Guinea: A 13-Year Historical Cohort Study in Nine Large-Volume Sites.

Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the retention rate of patients in an ART program and identify the predictors of attrition. Methods: This was a historical cohort study of HIV patients who started ART between September 2007 and April 2020, and were followed up on for at least 6 months in nine large-volume sites. Kaplan Meier techniques were used to estimate cumulative retention and attrition probabilities. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify predictors of attrition. Results: The cumulative probability of retention at 12 and 24 months was 76.2% and 70.2%, respectively. The attrition rate after a median follow-up time of 3.1 years was 35.2%, or an incidence of 11.4 per 100 person-years. Having initiated ART between 2012 and 2015; unmarried status; having initiated ART with CD4 count <100 cells/µL; and having initiated ART at an advanced clinical stage were factors significantly associated with attrition. Conclusion: The retention rate in our study is much lower than the proposed national target (90%). Studies to understand the reasons for loss to follow-up are needed.

The Need for a Dynamic Approach to Health System-Centered Innovations Comment on "What Health System Challenges Should Responsible Innovation in Health Address? Insights From an International Scoping Review".

Lehoux and colleagues plea for a health systems perspective to evaluate innovations. Since many innovations and their scale-up strategies emerge from processes that are not (centrally) steered, we plea for any assessment with a dynamic, instead of a sequential, approach. We provide further guidance on how to adopt such dynamic approach, in order to better un-derstand and steer innovations for better health systems. A systems-level challenge is constituted by interactions and feedback loops between different actors and components of the health system. It is therefore essential to explore both the entry-point of innovation and the interactions with other components. If innovation is regarded as an injection of resources and opportunities into a health system, this system needs to have the capacity to transform these into desired outputs, the 'absorption capacity.' The highly organic diffusion of innovation in complex adapative systems cannot be easily controlled, but the system behaviours can be analysed, with occurance of phenomena such as path dependence, feedback loops, scale-free networks, emergent behaviour and phase transitions. This helps to anticipate unintended consequences, and to engage key actors in ongoing problem-solving and adaptation. By adopting a prospective approach, responsible innovation could set in motion prospective policy evaluations, which on the basis of iterative learning would allow decisionmakers to continuously adapt their policies and programmes. Priority-setting for innovation is an essentially political process that is geared towards consensus-building and grounded in values.