Even modest climate change may lead to major transitions in boreal forests.

The sensitivity of forests to near-term warming and associated precipitation shifts remains uncertain1-9. Herein, using a 5-year open-air experiment in southern boreal forest, we show divergent responses to modest climate alteration among juveniles of nine co-occurring North American tree species. Warming alone (+1.6 °C or +3.1 °C above ambient temperature) or combined with reduced rainfall increased the juvenile mortality of all species, especially boreal conifers. Species differed in growth responses to warming, ranging from enhanced growth in Acer rubrum and Acer saccharum to severe growth reductions in Abies balsamea, Picea glauca and Pinus strobus. Moreover, treatment-induced changes in both photosynthesis and growth help explain treatment-driven changes in survival. Treatments in which species experienced conditions warmer or drier than at their range margins resulted in the most adverse impacts on growth and survival. Species abundant in southern boreal forests had the largest reductions in growth and survival due to climate manipulations. By contrast, temperate species that experienced little mortality and substantial growth enhancement in response to warming are rare throughout southern boreal forest and unlikely to rapidly expand their density and distribution. Therefore, projected climate change will probably cause regeneration failure of currently dominant southern boreal species and, coupled with their slow replacement by temperate species, lead to tree regeneration shortfalls with potential adverse impacts on the health, diversity and ecosystem services of regional forests.

Enhanced light interception and light use efficiency explain overyielding in young tree communities.

Diverse plant communities are often more productive than mono-specific ones. Several possible mechanisms underlie this phenomenon but their relative importance remains unknown. Here we investigated whether light interception alone or in combination with light use efficiency (LUE) of dominant and subordinate species explained greater productivity of mixtures relative to monocultures (i.e. overyielding) in 108 young experimental tree communities. We found mixed-species communities that intercepted more light than their corresponding monocultures had 84% probability of overyielding. Enhanced LUE, which arose via several pathways, also mattered: the probability of overyielding was 71% when, in a mixture, species with higher 'inherent' LUE (i.e. LUE in monoculture) intercepted more light than species with lower LUE; 94% when dominant species increased their LUE in mixture; and 79% when subordinate species increased their LUE. Our results suggest that greater light interception and greater LUE, generated by inter and intraspecific variation, together drive overyielding in mixed-species forests.

Species-specific flowering phenology responses to experimental warming and drought alter herbaceous plant species overlap in a temperate-boreal forest community.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns are expected to continue to occur as the climate changes. How these changes will impact the flowering phenology of herbaceous perennials in northern forests is poorly understood but could have consequences for forest functioning and species interactions. Here, we examine the flowering phenology responses of five herbaceous perennials to experimental warming and reduced summer rainfall over 3 years. METHODS: This study is part of the B4WarmED experiment located at two sites in northern Minnesota, USA. Three levels of warming (ambient, +1.6 °C and +3.1 °C) were crossed with two rainfall manipulations (ambient and 27 % reduced growing season rainfall). KEY RESULTS: We observed species-specific responses to the experimental treatments. Warming alone advanced flowering for four species. Most notably, the two autumn blooming species showed the strongest advance of flowering to warming. Reduced rainfall alone advanced flowering for one autumn blooming species and delayed flowering for the other, with no significant impact on the three early blooming species. Only one species, Solidago spp., showed an interactive response to warming and rainfall manipulation by advancing in +1.6 °C warming (regardless of rainfall manipulation) but not advancing in the warmest, driest treatment. Species-specific responses led to changes in temporal overlap between species. Most notably, the two autumn blooming species diverged significantly in their flowering timing. In ambient conditions, these two species flowered within the same week. In the warmest, driest treatment, flowering occurred over a month apart. CONCLUSIONS: Herbaceous species may differ in how they respond to future climate conditions. Changes to phenology may lead to fewer resources for insects or a mismatch between plants and pollinators.

Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range.

Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change-which will make most springs relatively "early"-could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.

Experimental warming advances phenology of groundlayer plants at the boreal-temperate forest ecotone.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Changes to plant phenology have been linked to warmer temperatures caused by climate change. Despite the importance of the groundlayer to community and forest dynamics, few warming experiments have focused on herbaceous plant and shrub phenology. METHODS: Using a field study in Minnesota, United States, we investigated phenological responses of 16 species to warming over five growing seasons (2009-2013) at two sites, under two canopy covers, and in three levels of simultaneous above- and belowground warming: ambient temperature, ambient +1.7°C and ambient +3.4°C. We tested whether warming led to earlier phenology throughout the growing season and whether responses varied among species and years and depended on canopy cover. KEY RESULTS: Warming extended the growing season between 11-30 days, primarily through earlier leaf unfolding. Leaf senescence was delayed for about half of the species. Warming advanced flowering across species, especially those flowering in August, with modest impacts on fruit maturation for two species. Importantly, warming caused more than half of the species to either converge or diverge phenologically in relation to each other, suggesting that future warmed climate conditions will alter phenological relationships of the groundlayer. Warm springs elicited a stronger advance of leaf unfolding compared to cool spring years. Several species advanced leaf unfolding (in response to warming) more in the closed canopy compared to the open. CONCLUSIONS: Climate warming will extend the growing season of groundlayer species in the boreal-temperate forest ecotone and alter the synchrony of their phenology.

Reduced feeding activity of soil detritivores under warmer and drier conditions.

Anthropogenic warming is projected to trigger positive feedbacks to climate by enhancing carbon losses from the soil1. While such losses are, in part, owing to increased decomposition of organic matter by invertebrate detritivores, it is unknown how detritivore feeding activity will change with warming2, especially under drought conditions. Here, using four year manipulation experiments in two North American boreal forests, we investigate how temperature (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) and rainfall (ambient, -40% summer precipitation) perturbations influence detritivore feeding activity. In contrast to general expectations1,3, warming had negligible net effects on detritivore feeding activity at ambient precipitation. However, when combined with precipitation reductions, warming decreased feeding activity by ~14%. As across all plots and dates, detritivore feeding activity was positively associated to bulk soil microbial respiration, our results suggest slower rates of decomposition of soil organic matter, and thus reduced positive feedbacks to climate under anthropogenic climate change.

Is it getting hot in here? Adjustment of hydraulic parameters in six boreal and temperate tree species after 5 years of warming.

Global temperatures (T) are rising, and for many plant species, their physiological response to this change has not been well characterized. In particular, how hydraulic parameters may change has only been examined experimentally for a few species. To address this, we measured characteristics of the hydraulic architecture of six species growing in ambient T and ambient +3.4 °C T plots in two experimentally warmed forest sites in Minnesota. These sites are at the temperate-boreal ecotone, and we measured three species from each forest type. We hypothesized that relative to boreal species, temperate species near their northern range border would increase xylem conduit diameters when grown under elevated T. We also predicted a continuum of responses among wood types, with conduit diameter increases correlating with increases in the complexity of wood structure. Finally, we predicted that increases in conduit diameter and specific hydraulic conductivity would positively affect photosynthetic rates and growth. Our results generally supported our hypotheses, and conduit diameter increased under elevated T across all species, although this pattern was driven predominantly by three species. Two of these species were temperate angiosperms, but one was a boreal conifer, contrary to predictions. We observed positive relationships between the change in specific hydraulic conductivity and both photosynthetic rate (P = 0.080) and growth (P = 0.012). Our results indicate that species differ in their ability to adjust hydraulically to increases in T. Specifically, species with more complex xylem anatomy, particularly those individuals growing near the cooler edge of their range, appeared to be better able to increase conduit diameters and specific hydraulic conductivity, which permitted increases in photosynthesis and growth. Our data support results that indicate individual's ability to physiologically adjust is related to their location within their species range, and highlight that some wood types may adjust more easily than others.