Comparison of Machine Learning Algorithms for the Prediction of Preventable Hospital Readmissions.

A diverse universe of statistical models in the literature aim to help hospitals understand the risk factors of their preventable readmissions. However, these models are usually not necessarily applicable in other contexts, fail to achieve good discriminatory power, or cannot be compared with other models. We built and compared predictive models based on machine learning algorithms for 30-day preventable hospital readmissions of Medicare patients. This work used the same inclusion/exclusion criteria for diseases used by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. In addition, risk stratification techniques were implemented to study covariate behavior on each risk strata. The new models resulted in improved performance measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Finally, factors such as higher length of stay, disease severity index, being discharged to a hospital, and primary language other than English were associated with increased risk to be readmitted within 30 days. In the future, better predictive models for 30-day preventable hospital readmissions can point to the development of systems that identify patients at high risk and lead to the implementation of interventions (e.g., discharge planning and follow-up) to those patients, providing consistent improvement in the quality and efficiency of the healthcare system.

Preventable Readmission Risk Factors for Patients With Chronic Conditions.

Evidence indicates that the largest volume of hospital readmissions occurs among patients with preexisting chronic conditions. Identifying these patients can improve the way hospital care is delivered and prioritize the allocation of interventions. In this retrospective study, we identify factors associated with readmission within 30 days based on claims and administrative data of nine hospitals from 2005 to 2012. We present a data inclusion and exclusion criteria to identify potentially preventable readmissions. Multivariate logistic regression models and a Cox proportional hazards extension are used to estimate the readmission risk for 4 chronic conditions (congestive heart failure [CHF], chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD], acute myocardial infarction, and type 2 diabetes) and pneumonia, known to be related to high readmission rates. Accumulated number of admissions and discharge disposition were identified to be significant factors across most disease groups. Larger odds of readmission were associated with higher severity index for CHF and COPD patients. Different chronic conditions are associated with different patient and case severity factors, suggesting that further studies in readmission should consider studying conditions separately.

Technology integration performance assessment using lean principles in health care.

This study assesses the impact of an automated infusion system (AIS) integration at a positron emission tomography (PET) center based on "lean thinking" principles. The authors propose a systematic measurement system that evaluates improvement in terms of the "8 wastes." This adaptation to the health care context consisted of performance measurement before and after integration of AIS in terms of time, utilization of resources, amount of materials wasted/saved, system variability, distances traveled, and worker strain. The authors' observations indicate that AIS stands to be very effective in a busy PET department, such as the one in Moffitt Cancer Center, owing to its accuracy, pace, and reliability, especially after the necessary adjustments are made to reduce or eliminate the source of errors. This integration must be accompanied by a process reengineering exercise to realize the full potential of AIS in reducing waste and improving patient care and worker satisfaction.