Global mismatches between threat mapping research effort and the potential of threat abatement actions to reduce extinction risk.

Threat mapping is a necessary tool for identifying and abating direct threats to species in the ongoing extinction crisis. There are known gaps in the threat mapping literature for particular threats and geographic locations, and it remains unclear if the distribution of research effort is appropriately targeted relative to conservation need. We aimed to determine the drivers of threat mapping research effort and to quantify gaps that, if filled, could inform actions with the highest potential to reduce species' extinction risk. We used a negative binomial generalized linear model to analyze research effort as a function of threat abatement potential (quantified as the potential reduction in species extinction risk from abating threats), species richness, land area, and human pressure. The model showed that threat mapping research effort increased by 1.1 to 1.2 times per standardized unit change in threat abatement potential. However, species richness and land area were stronger predictors of research effort overall. The greatest areas of mismatch between research effort and threat abatement potential, receiving disproportionately low research effort, were related to the threats to species of agriculture, aquaculture, and biological resource use across the tropical regions of the Americas, Asia, and Madagascar. Conversely, the threat of linear infrastructure (e.g., roads and rails) across regions, the threat of biological resource use (e.g., hunting or collection) in sub-Saharan Africa, and overall threats in North America and Europe all received disproportionately high research effort. We discuss the range of methodological and sociopolitical factors that may be behind the overall trends and specific areas of mismatch we found. We urge a stronger emphasis on targeting research effort toward those threats and geographic locations where threat abatement activities could make the greatest contribution to reducing global species extinction risk.

Disparidades mundiales entre la investigación sobre el esfuerzo de mapeo de amenazas y la potencial amenaza de las acciones de abatimiento para reducir el riesgo de extinción Resumen El mapeo de amenazas es una herramienta necesaria para identificar y abatir las amenazas directas para las especies en la actual crisis de extinción. Existen vacíos conocidos en la literatura del mapeo de amenazas para amenazas particulares y ubicaciones geográficas, y todavía no está claro si la distribución de los esfuerzos de investigación está enfocada de forma apropiada en relación con las necesidades de conservación. Buscamos determinar los factores que influyen sobre el esfuerzo de investigación del mapeo de amenazas y cuantificar los vacíos que, si se cierran, podrían guiar las acciones con el potencial más alto para reducir el riesgo de extinción de las especies. Usamos un modelo binomial lineal negativo generalizado para analizar el esfuerzo de investigación como función del potencial de abatimiento de amenazas (cuantificado como la reducción potencial en el riesgo de extinción a partir del abatimiento de amenazas), la riqueza de especies, el área del suelo y la presión humana. El modelo mostró que el esfuerzo de investigación del mapeo de amenazas incrementó entre 1.1 y 1.2 veces por unidad estandarizada de cambio en el potencial de abatimiento de amenazas. Sin embargo, la riqueza de especies y el área del suelo fueron pronósticos más sólidos del esfuerzo de investigación generalizado. Las principales áreas de disparidad entre el esfuerzo de investigación y el potencial de abatimiento de amenazas, las cuales reciben un esfuerzo de investigación desproporcionalmente bajo, estuvieron relacionadas con las amenazas para las especies de agricultura, acuacultura y recursos biológicos que se usan en las regiones tropicales de América, Asia y Madagascar. Al contrario, la amenaza de la infraestructura lineal (p. ej.: carreteras y vías férreas) en las regiones, la amenaza del uso de recursos biológicos (p. ej.: caza o recolección) en la África subsahariana y las amenazas generales en América del Norte y en Europa recibieron un esfuerzo de investigación desproporcionalmente alto. Abordamos el rango de factores metodológicos y sociopolíticos que pueden estar detrás de las tendencias generales y las áreas específicas de disparidad que encontramos. Instamos a un mayor énfasis en el enfoque del esfuerzo de investigación hacia aquellas amenazas y ubicaciones geográficas en donde las actividades de abatimiento de amenazas podrían brindar una mayor contribución para reducir el riesgo mundial de extinción de especies.

The scope and extent of literature that maps threats to species globally: a systematic map.

BACKGROUND: Human activities are driving accelerating rates of species extinctions that continue to threaten nature's contribution to people. Yet, the full scope of where and how human activities threaten wild species worldwide remains unclear. Furthermore, the large diversity of approaches and terminology surrounding threats and threat mapping presents a barrier to understanding the state of knowledge and uptake into decision-making. Here, we define 'threats' as human activities and direct human-initiated processes, specifically where they co-occur with, and impact the survival of, wild species. Our objectives were to systematically consolidate the threat mapping literature, describe the distribution of available evidence, and produce a publicly available and searchable database of articles for easy uptake of evidence into future decision-making. METHODS: Four bibliographic databases, one web-based search engine, and thirteen organisational websites were searched for peer-reviewed and grey-literature published in English 2000-2020. A three-stage screening process (title, abstract, and full-text) and coding was undertaken by two reviewers, with consistency tested on 20% of articles at each stage. Articles were coded according to 22 attributes that captured dimensions of the population, threat, and geographic location studied in addition to methodological attributes. The threats studied were classified according to the IUCN Red List threat classification scheme. A range of graphical formats were used to visualise the distribution of evidence according to these attributes and complement the searchable database of articles. REVIEW FINDINGS: A total of 1069 relevant threat mapping studies were found and included in the systematic map, most conducted at a sub-national or local scale. Evidence was distributed unevenly among taxonomic groups, ecological realms, and geographies. Although articles were found for the full scope of threat categories used, most articles mapped a single threat. The most heavily mapped threats were alien invasive species, aquatic or terrestrial animal exploitation, roads and railways, residential development, and non-timber crop and livestock agriculture. Limitations regarding the English-only search and imperfect ability of the search to identify grey literature could have influenced the findings. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic map represents a catalogue of threat mapping evidence at any spatial scale available for immediate use in threat reduction activities and policy decisions. The distribution of evidence has implications for devising actions to combat the threats specifically targeted in the post-2020 UN Biodiversity Framework, and for identifying other threats that may benefit from representation in global policy. It also highlights key gaps for further research to aid national and local-scale threat reduction. More knowledge would be particularly beneficial in the areas of managing multiple threats, land-based threats to marine systems, and threats to plant species and threats within the freshwater realm.