A Mindfulness-Based App Intervention for Pregnant Women: Protocol for a Pilot Feasibility Study.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy is a complex time characterized by major transformations in a woman, which impact her physical, mental, and social well-being. How a woman adapts to these changes can affect her quality of life and psychological well-being. The literature indicates that pregnant women commonly experience psychological symptoms, with anxiety, stress, and depression being among the most frequent. Hence, promoting a healthy lifestyle focused on women's psychological well-being is crucial. Recently developed digital solutions have assumed a crucial role in supporting psychological well-being in physiologically pregnant women. Therefore, the need becomes evident for the development and implementation of digital solutions, such as a virtual coach implemented in a smartphone, as a support for the psychological well-being of pregnant women who do not present psychological and psychiatric disorders. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the feasibility, acceptability, and utility of a mindfulness-based mobile app. The primary objective is to explore the feasibility of using a virtual coach, Maia, developed within the TreC Mamma app to promote women's psychological well-being during pregnancy through a psychoeducational module based on mindfulness. Finally, through the delivery of this module, the level of psychological well-being will be explored as a secondary objective. METHODS: This is a proof-of-concept study in which a small sample (N=50) is sufficient to achieve the intended purposes. Recruitment will occur within the group of pregnant women belonging to the pregnancy care services of the Trento Azienda Provinciale per i Servizi Sanitari di Trento. The convenience sampling method will be used. Maia will interact with the participating women for 8 weeks, starting from weeks 24 and 26 of pregnancy. Specifically, there will be 2 sessions per week, which the woman can choose, to allow more flexibility toward her needs. RESULTS: The psychoeducational pathway is expected to lead to significant results in terms of usability and engagement in women's interactions with Maia. Furthermore, it is anticipated that there will be improvements in psychological well-being and overall quality of life. The analysis of the data collected in this study will be mainly descriptive, orientated toward assessing the achievement of the study objectives. CONCLUSIONS: Literature has shown that women preferred web-based support during the perinatal period, suggesting that implementing digital interventions can overcome barriers to social stigma and asking for help. Maia can be a valuable resource for regular psychoeducational support for women during pregnancy. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR1-10.2196/53890.

Remeasuring the influence of ageing on heat-related mortality in Spain, 1980 to 2018.

Climate change and population ageing are converging challenges that are expected to significantly worsen the health impacts of high temperatures. We aimed to remeasure the implications of ageing for heat-related mortality by comparing time trends based on chronological age (number of years already lived) with those derived from the application of state-of-the-art demographic methodology which better captures the dynamics of evolving longevity: prospective age (number of years still to be lived). We conducted a nationwide time-series analysis of 13 regions in Spain over 1980-2018 using all-cause mortality microdata for people aged 65+ and annual life tables from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics, and daily mean temperatures from E-OBS. Based on confounder-adjusted quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear models and multivariate meta-analysis in moving 15-year timeslices, we assessed sex-specific changes in absolute risk and impacts for heat-related mortality at extreme and moderate temperatures, for chronological and prospective age groups. In the conventional chronological age analysis, absolute risk fell over the study period (e.g. females, extreme heat: -54%; moderate heat: -23%); after accounting for rising longevity, the prospective age analysis, however, found a smaller decline in risk for extreme heat (-15%) and a rise for moderate heat (+46%). Additionally, while the chronological age analysis suggested a shift in mortality towards higher ages, the prospective age analysis showed that over the study period, people of largely the same (prospective) age were impacted. Further, the prospective age analysis revealed excess risk in females (compared to males) rose from 20% to 27% for extreme heat, and from 40% to 70% for moderate heat. Assessing the implications of ageing using a prospective age perspective showed the urgency of re-doubling risk reduction efforts, including accelerating healthy ageing programs that incorporate climate considerations. The age patterns of impacts suggested that such actions have the potential to mitigate ageing-related heat-health threats to generate climate change-ready, healthy societies.

Sex-differences in excess death risk during the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of the first wave across Italian regions. What have we learned?

In this commentary, we bring together knowledge on sex-differences in excess death during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, one of the most hit European countries. We zoom into Italian regions to account for the spatial gradient of the spread of the virus. Analyses of excess death by sex during the COVID-19 pandemic have been possible thanks to weekly mortality data released by national statistical offices, mainly in developed countries. The general finding is that males up to 75 years old have been suffering more excess death compared to females. However, the picture is less clear-cut at older ages. During previous epidemics, such as SARS, Swine Flu, and MERS, studies are limited and produce scattered, non-conclusive evidence. Knowledge of the sex-pattern of susceptibility to mortality from virulent respiratory diseases and its interplay with age could improve crisis management during future epidemics and pandemics. National statistical offices should provide weekly mortality data with spatial granularity, disaggregated by sex and age groups, to allow for such analyses.

Preconception Antidiabetic Drugs in Men and Birth Defects in Offspring : A Nationwide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes reduces semen quality and increasingly occurs during reproductive years. Diabetes medications, such as metformin, have glucose-independent effects on the male reproductive system. Associations with birth defects in offspring are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether the risk for birth defects in offspring varies with preconceptional pharmacologic treatment of fathers with diabetes. DESIGN: Nationwide prospective registry-based cohort study. SETTING: Denmark from 1997 to 2016. PARTICIPANTS: All liveborn singletons from mothers without histories of diabetes or essential hypertension. MEASUREMENTS: Offspring were considered exposed if their father filled 1 or more prescriptions for a diabetes drug during the development of fertilizing sperm. Sex and frequencies of major birth defects were compared across drugs, times of exposure, and siblings. RESULTS: Of 1 116 779 offspring included, 3.3% had 1 or more major birth defects (reference). Insulin-exposed offspring (n = 5298) had the reference birth defect frequency (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.98 [95% CI, 0.85 to 1.14]). Metformin-exposed offspring (n = 1451) had an elevated birth defect frequency (aOR, 1.40 [CI, 1.08 to 1.82]). For sulfonylurea-exposed offspring (n = 647), the aOR was 1.34 (CI, 0.94 to 1.92). Offspring whose fathers filled a metformin prescription in the year before (n = 1751) or after (n = 2484) sperm development had reference birth defect frequencies (aORs, 0.88 [CI, 0.59 to 1.31] and 0.92 [CI, 0.68 to 1.26], respectively), as did unexposed siblings of exposed offspring (3.2%; exposed vs. unexposed OR, 1.54 [CI, 0.94 to 2.53]). Among metformin-exposed offspring, genital birth defects, all in boys, were more common (aOR, 3.39 [CI, 1.82 to 6.30]), while the proportion of male offspring was lower (49.4% vs. 51.4%, P = 0.073). LIMITATION: Information on underlying disease status was limited. CONCLUSION: Preconception paternal metformin treatment is associated with major birth defects, particularly genital birth defects in boys. Further research should replicate these findings and clarify the causation. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

High excess deaths in Sweden during the first wave of COVID-19: Policy deficiencies or 'dry tinder'?

AIMS: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, Sweden registered a high level of excess deaths. Non-pharmaceutical interventions adopted by Sweden have been milder compared to those implemented in Denmark. Moreover, Sweden might have started the pandemic with a large proportion of vulnerable elderly with a high mortality risk. This study aimed to clarify whether excess mortality in Sweden can be explained by a large stock of 'dry tinder' instead of being attributed to faulty lockdown policies. METHODS: We analysed weekly death counts in Sweden and Denmark from July 2007 to June 2020. We used a novel method for short-term mortality forecasting to estimate expected and excess deaths during the first COVID-19 wave in Sweden and Denmark. RESULTS: In the first part of the epiyear 2019-2020, deaths were low in both Sweden and Denmark. In the absence of COVID-19, a relatively low level of death would be expected for the later part of the epiyear. The registered deaths were, however, way above the upper bound of the prediction interval in Sweden and within the range in Denmark. CONCLUSIONS: 'Dry tinder' can only account for a modest fraction of excess Swedish mortality. The risk of death during the first COVID-19 wave rose significantly for Swedish women aged >85 but only slightly for Danish women aged >85. The risk discrepancy seems more likely to result from differences between Sweden and Denmark in how care and housing for the elderly are organised, coupled with a less successful Swedish strategy of shielding the elderly.

School Interventions for Bullying-Cyberbullying Prevention in Adolescents: Insights from the UPRIGHT and CREEP Projects.

BACKGROUND: Several challenges and emotional demands characterize adolescence, affecting the mental well-being of youths. Among these, bullying and cyberbullying are recognized nowadays as a major social problem, affecting more than one-third of adolescents, with extensive negative consequences for the victims involved, such as lower self-esteem, increased loneliness, depression, and anxiety. School programs and interventions that foster resilience, coping, and well-being are particularly important during adolescence as protective and preventive factors against the consequences of (cyber)bullying. The paper presents two recent co-designed interventions for (cyber)bullying prevention deployed in Europe, targeting early adolescents and their school communities. METHODS: The UPRIGHT project developed an evidence-based, whole-school intervention to train resilience as a protective factor to promote mental well-being in adolescents, in a cross-national perspective. The CREEP project designed and implemented digital interventions to support schools in (i) early detection of cyberbullying events on social media and (ii) coaching adolescents (victims, bullies, bystanders) on how to cope with (cyber)bullying behaviors. RESULTS: The main challenges and insights collected during the design and implementation of both interventions are discussed to inform future research and practice. CONCLUSION: The feasibility and acceptance of prevention programs are key to the reducing risk of (cyber)bullying and improving the psychological well-being of early adolescents.

Efficacy of eHealth Interventions for Adults with Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

The aim is to provide meta-analytical evidence on eHealth interventions' efficacy in supporting the psychosocial and physical well-being of adults with type 1 or type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (DM), and to investigate differences in interventions primarily targeted at providing glycemic control vs. psychosocial support. A PRISMA-guided systematic search was conducted. Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) regarding eHealth interventions for adults (18-65 years) with DM were included. Data were pooled using Standard Mean Difference (SMD); sub-group analysis and meta-regressions were performed when appropriate. Outcomes were Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), diabetes distress, quality of life, anxiety, stress, and depression. Intervention acceptability was assessed performing the Odds Ratio (OR) of drop-out rates. Thirteen RCTs comprising 1315 participants were included (52.09% females; Mage = 46.18, SD = 9.98). Analyses showed intervention efficacy on HbA1c (SMD = -0.40; 95% CI = -0.70, -0.12; k = 13) and depressive symptoms (SMD = -0.18; 95% CI = -0.33, -0.02; k = 6) at RCTs endpoint and were well accepted (OR = 1.43; 95% CI = 0.72, 2.81; k = 10). However, efficacy on HbA1c was not maintained at follow-up (SMD = -0.13; 95% CI = -0.31, 0.05; k = 6). eHealth interventions providing medical support were acceptable and effective in fostering glycemic control and decreasing depressive symptoms in the short-term only. Digital solutions should be developed on multiple levels to fully support the psychophysical well-being of people with DM.

Engagement and Effectiveness of a Healthy-Coping Intervention via Chatbot for University Students During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Mixed Methods Proof-of-Concept Study.

BACKGROUND: University students are increasingly reporting common mental health problems, such as stress, anxiety, and depression, and they frequently face barriers to seeking psychological support because of stigma, cost, and availability of mental health services. This issue is even more critical in the challenging time of the COVID-19 pandemic. Digital mental health interventions, such as those delivered via chatbots on mobile devices, offer the potential to achieve scalability of healthy-coping interventions by lowering cost and supporting prevention. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to conduct a proof-of-concept evaluation measuring the engagement and effectiveness of Atena, a psychoeducational chatbot supporting healthy coping with stress and anxiety, among a population of university students. METHODS: In a proof-of-concept study, 71 university students were recruited during the COVID-19 pandemic; 68% (48/71) were female, they were all in their first year of university, and their mean age was 20.6 years (SD 2.4). Enrolled students were asked to use the Atena psychoeducational chatbot for 4 weeks (eight sessions; two per week), which provided healthy-coping strategies based on cognitive behavioral therapy, positive psychology, and mindfulness techniques. The intervention program consisted of conversations combined with audiovisual clips delivered via the Atena chatbot. Participants were asked to complete web-based versions of the 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale (GAD-7), the 10-item Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-10), and the Five-Facet Mindfulness Questionnaire (FFMQ) at baseline and postintervention to assess effectiveness. They were also asked to complete the User Engagement Scale-Short Form at week 2 to assess engagement with the chatbot and to provide qualitative comments on their overall experience with Atena postintervention. RESULTS: Participants engaged with the Atena chatbot an average of 78 (SD 24.8) times over the study period. A total of 61 out of 71 (86%) participants completed the first 2 weeks of the intervention and provided data on engagement (10/71, 14% attrition). A total of 41 participants out of 71 (58%) completed the full intervention and the postintervention questionnaires (30/71, 42% attrition). Results from the completer analysis showed a significant decrease in anxiety symptoms for participants in more extreme GAD-7 score ranges (t39=0.94; P=.009) and a decrease in stress symptoms as measured by the PSS-10 (t39=2.00; P=.05) for all participants postintervention. Participants also improved significantly in the describing and nonjudging facets, based on their FFMQ subscale scores, and asked for some improvements in the user experience with the chatbot. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows the benefit of deploying a digital healthy-coping intervention via a chatbot to support university students experiencing higher levels of distress. While findings collected during the COVID-19 pandemic show promise, further research is required to confirm conclusions.

Short-term forecasts of expected deaths.

We introduce a method for making short-term mortality forecasts of a few months, illustrating it by estimating how many deaths might have happened if some major shock had not occurred. We apply the method to assess excess mortality from March to June 2020 in Denmark and Sweden as a result of the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic; associated policy interventions; and behavioral, healthcare, social, and economic changes. We chose to compare Denmark and Sweden because reliable data were available and because the two countries are similar but chose different responses to COVID-19: Denmark imposed a rather severe lockdown; Sweden did not. We make forecasts by age and sex to predict expected deaths if COVID-19 had not struck. Subtracting these forecasts from observed deaths gives the excess death count. Excess deaths were lower in Denmark than Sweden during the first wave of the pandemic. The later/earlier ratio we propose for shortcasting is easy to understand, requires less data than more elaborate approaches, and may be useful in many countries in making both predictions about the future and the past to study the impact on mortality of coronavirus and other epidemics. In the application to Denmark and Sweden, prediction intervals are narrower and bias is less than when forecasts are based on averages of the last 5 y, as is often done. More generally, later/earlier ratios may prove useful in short-term forecasting of illnesses and births as well as economic and other activity that varies seasonally or periodically.

Risk of pre-term births and major birth defects resulting from paternal intake of COVID-19 medications prior to conception.

OBJECTIVE: With the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, large numbers of people will receive one of the several medications proposed to treat COVID-19, including patients of reproductive age. Given that some medications have shown adverse effects on sperm quality, there might be a transgenerational concern. We aim at examining the association between drugs proposed to treat COVID-19 when taken by the father around conception and any pre-term birth or major birth defects in offspring in a nation-wide cohort study using Danish registry data. Offspring whose father filled at least one prescription of the following medications in the 3 months preceding conception were considered exposed: chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, losartan, azithromycin, naproxen, dexamethasone and prednisone. RESULTS: For azithromycin and naproxen, large numbers of offspring were exposed (> 1800 offspring), and we found no association with adverse birth outcomes. For chloroquine, losartan and dexamethasone, exposure was intermediate (~ 900 offspring), and there was no statistically significant association with birth defects. For hydroxychloroquine and prednisone, exposure was limited (< 300 offspring). Our evidence suggests that azithromycin and naproxen are safe with respect to pre-term birth and birth defects. For the other drugs investigated larger exposures are needed for conclusive statements.

Risk of pre-term births and major birth defects resulting from paternal intake of COVID-19 medications prior to conception.

Objective: With the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, large numbers of people will receive one of the several medications proposed to treat COVID-19, including patients of reproductive age. Given that some medications have shown adverse effects on sperm quality, there might be a transgenerational concern. We aim at examining the association between drugs proposed to treat COVID-19 when taken by the father around conception and any pre-term birth or major birth defects in offspring in a nation-wide cohort study using Danish registry data. Offspring whose father filled at least one prescription of the following medications in the three months preceding conception were considered exposed: chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, losartan, azithromycin, naproxen, dexamethasone and prednisone. Results: For azithromycin and naproxen, large numbers of offspring were exposed (> 1800 offspring), and we found no association with adverse birth outcomes. For chloroquine, losartan and dexamethasone, exposure was intermediate (~900 offspring), and there was no statistically significant association with birth defects. For hydroxychloroquine and prednisone, exposure was limited (<300 offspring). Our evidence suggests that azithromycin and naproxen are safe with respect to pre-term birth and birth defects. For the other drugs investigated larger exposures are needed for conclusive statements.

Age-specific cancer rates: a bird's-eye view on progress.

PURPOSE: We aim to shed light on progress in cancer medicine through studying time trends in age-specific rates of cancer incidence and mortality over the last quarter century. METHODS: We analyzed age-specific incidence and mortality rates of all cancer sites combined using the high-quality population-based databases of Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands for the period 1990-2016. RESULTS: Over these 26 years, cancer incidence rates increased in all investigated countries irrespective of age by about 22%. By contrast, cancer mortality rates decreased across all ages, also by about 22%, except ages 80+ years in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, where they remained unchanged. This pattern is consistent with earlier diagnoses and more effective treatments of cancer. CONCLUSIONS: This bird's-eye view on cancer reveals substantive progress in cancer medicine.

A Chatbot-Based Coaching Intervention for Adolescents to Promote Life Skills: Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND: Adolescence is a challenging period, where youth face rapid changes as well as increasing socioemotional demands and threats, such as bullying and cyberbullying. Adolescent mental health and well-being can be best supported by providing effective coaching on life skills, such as coping strategies and protective factors. Interventions that take advantage of online coaching by means of chatbots, deployed on Web or mobile technology, may be a novel and more appealing way to support positive mental health for adolescents. OBJECTIVE: In this pilot study, we co-designed and conducted a formative evaluation of an online, life skills coaching, chatbot intervention, inspired by the positive technology approach, to promote mental well-being in adolescence. METHODS: We co-designed the first life skills coaching session of the CRI (for girls) and CRIS (for boys) chatbot with 20 secondary school students in a participatory design workshop. We then conducted a formative evaluation of the entire intervention-eight sessions-with a convenience sample of 21 adolescents of both genders (mean age 14.52 years). Participants engaged with the chatbot sessions over 4 weeks and filled in an anonymous user experience questionnaire at the end of each session; responses were based on a 5-point Likert scale. RESULTS: A majority of the adolescents found the intervention useful (16/21, 76%), easy to use (19/21, 90%), and innovative (17/21, 81%). Most of the participants (15/21, 71%) liked, in particular, the video cartoons provided by the chatbot in the coaching sessions. They also thought that a session should last only 5-10 minutes (14/21, 66%) and said they would recommend the intervention to a friend (20/21, 95%). CONCLUSIONS: We have presented a novel and scalable self-help intervention to deliver life skills coaching to adolescents online that is appealing to this population. This intervention can support the promotion of coping skills and mental well-being among youth.

Progression of the smoking epidemic in high-income regions and its effects on male-female survival differences: a cohort-by-age analysis of 17 countries.

BACKGROUND: Of all lifestyle behaviours, smoking caused the most deaths in the last century. Because of the time lag between the act of smoking and dying from smoking, and because males generally take up smoking before females do, male and female smoking epidemiology often follows a typical double wave pattern dubbed the 'smoking epidemic'. How are male and female deaths from this epidemic differentially progressing in high-income regions on a cohort-by-age basis? How have they affected male-female survival differences? METHODS: We used data for the period 1950-2015 from the WHO Mortality Database and the Human Mortality Database on three geographic regions that have progressed most into the smoking epidemic: high-income North America, high-income Europe and high-income Oceania. We examined changes in smoking-attributable mortality fractions as estimated by the Preston-Glei-Wilmoth method by age (ages 50-85) across birth cohorts 1870-1965. We used these to trace sex differences with and without smoking-attributable mortality in period life expectancy between ages 50 and 85. RESULTS: In all three high-income regions, smoking explained up to 50% of sex differences in period life expectancy between ages 50 and 85 over the study period. These sex differences have declined since at least 1980, driven by smoking-attributable mortality, which tended to decline in males and increase in females overall. Thus, there was a convergence between sexes across recent cohorts. While smoking-attributable mortality was still increasing for older female cohorts, it was declining for females in the more recent cohorts in the US and Europe, as well as for males in all three regions. CONCLUSIONS: The smoking epidemic contributed substantially to the male-female survival gap and to the recent narrowing of that gap in high-income North America, high-income Europe and high-income Oceania. The precipitous decline in smoking-attributable mortality in recent cohorts bodes somewhat hopeful. Yet, smoking-attributable mortality remains high, and therefore cause for concern.

UPRIGHT, a resilience-based intervention to promote mental well-being in schools: study rationale and methodology for a European randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Adolescence is crucial period for laying the foundations for healthy development and mental well-being. The increasing prevalence of mental disorders amongst adolescents makes promotion of mental well-being and prevention interventions at schools important. UPRIGHT (Universal Preventive Resilience Intervention Globally implemented in schools to improve and promote mental Health for Teenagers) is designed as a whole school approach (school community, students and families) to promote a culture of mental well-being and prevent mental disorders by enhancing resilience capacities. The present article aims at describing the rationale, conceptual framework, as well as methodology of implementation and evaluation of the UPRIGHT intervention. METHODS: UPRIGHT project is a research and innovation project funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement No. 754919 (Duration: 48 months). The theoretical framework has been developed by an innovative and multidisciplinary approach using a co-creation process inside the UPRIGHT Consortium (involving seven institutions from Spain, Italy, Poland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland). Resulted is the UPRIGHT programme with 18 skills related to 4 components: Mindfulness, Coping, Efficacy and Social and Emotional Learning. Among the five Pan-European regions, 34 schools have been currently involved (17 control; 17 intervention) and around 6000 adolescents and their families are foreseen to participate along a 3-year period of evaluation. Effectiveness of the intervention will be evaluated as a randomized controlled trial including quantitative and qualitative analysis in the five Pan-European regions representative of the cultural and socioeconomic diversity. The cost-effectiveness assessment will be performed by simulation modelling methods. DISCUSSION: We expect a short- to medium-term improvement of mental well-being in adolescents by enhancing resilience capacities. The study may provide robust evidence on intrapersonal, familiar and social environmental resilience factors promoting positive mental well-being. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03951376 . Registered 15 May 2019.

How to estimate mortality trends from grouped vital statistics.

BACKGROUND: Mortality data at the population level are often aggregated in age classes, for example 5-year age groups with an open-ended interval for the elderly aged 85+. Capturing detailed age-specific mortality patterns and mortality time trends from such coarsely grouped data can be problematic at older ages, especially where open-ended intervals are used. METHODS: We illustrate the penalized composite link model (PCLM) for ungrouping to model cancer mortality surfaces. Smooth age-specific distributions from data grouped in age classes of adjacent calendar years were estimated by constructing a two-dimensional regression, based on B-splines, and maximizing a penalized likelihood. We show the applicability of the proposed model, analysing age-at-death distributions from cancers of all sites in Denmark from 1980 to 2014. Data were retrieved from the Danish Cancer Society and the Human Mortality Database. RESULTS: The main trends captured by PCLM are: (i) a decrease in cancer mortality rates after the 1990s for ages 50-75; (ii) a decrease in cancer mortality in later cohorts for young ages, especially, and very advanced ages. Comparing the raw data by single year of age, with the PCLM-ungrouped distributions, we clearly illustrate that the model fits the data with a high level of accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: The PCLM produces detailed smooth mortality surfaces from death counts observed in coarse age groups with modest assumptions, that is Poisson distributed counts and smoothness of the estimated distribution. Hence, the method has great potential for use within epidemiological research when information is to be gained from aggregated data, because it avoids strict assumptions about the actual distributional shape.

Correction to: The private healthcare market and the sustainability of an innovative community nurses programme based on social entrepreneurship - CoNSENSo project.

Following publication of the original article [1], the author reported that their first names and last names were swapped. The original article has been corrected.

The private healthcare market and the sustainability of an innovative community nurses programme based on social entrepreneurship - CoNSENSo project.

BACKGROUND: CoNSENSo is a project funded by the European Union, which is aimed at developing an innovative care model based on community nurses to support active ageing in mountain areas. The planned sustainability of this innovative approach relies on social entrepreneurship on the healthcare market, and this work highlights the necessary conditions for the successful implementation of these entrepreneurial initiatives. METHODS: Considering municipalities in the Piedmont Region and those aged 65 or older as target population, the authors propose several negative binomial regression models to estimate the effectiveness of current private healthcare services in supporting the active aging process. Such effectiveness may represent the ex-ante (positive) reputation of these new social entrepreneurial initiatives on the market. RESULTS: According to our results, the private supply of healthcare services can effectively support the aging process. Indeed, given that the other predictor variables in the model are held constant, there are statistically significant negative relations between the number of hip fractures and the private supply of healthcare services by dental practitioners and psychologists (p-value < 0.05), as well as the private supply of opportunities for social interaction by coffee bars (p-value < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The authors expect a favourable environment for the entrepreneurial initiatives of community nurses in mountain areas. Accordingly, policy makers cannot reject the hypothesis that the goals reached by the CoNSENSo project may be maintained for the sake of the future generations, avoiding its collapse as soon as public funding shifts to new programmes.

The sustainability of a community nurses programme aimed at supporting active ageing in mountain areas.

BACKGROUND: Community Nurse Supporting Elderly iN a changing SOciety is a project funded by the European Union, which is aimed at developing an innovative care model based on community nurses to support active ageing in mountain areas. The planned sustainability of this innovative approach relies on social entrepreneurship, and this work highlights the necessary conditions for the existence of these entrepreneurial initiatives on the market, with community nurses' services purchased by the public health care system. METHODS: The authors propose a sustainability framework for this project based on three relevant dimensions (ie, health, organisation, and context), highlighting the necessary conditions for continued provision of health services beyond project conclusion. Then, considering the Piedmont Region and those aged 65 or older as target population, health outcomes are analysed, proposing a break-even analysis to calculate expected levels. RESULTS: According to our results, in order to care for 191 977 elderly people for 3 years, a successful pro-active approach is needed to prevent 1657 falls with hip fracture, reducing the prevalence of this adverse outcome by 36%. These are the expected health outcome levels for the existence of a social market, which can be achieved through the successful involvement of local public health organisations and stakeholders. CONCLUSIONS: Policy makers need clear information on the economic impact of extending this new intervention to the whole target population and on the required preconditions for its financial sustainability in terms of health outcomes. However, a participatory process involving all relevant local stakeholders and organisations is crucial to extend current achievements beyond project conclusion.