Deciphering local and regional hydroclimate resolves contradicting evidence on the Asian monsoon evolution.

The winter and summer monsoons in Southeast Asia are important but highly variable sources of rainfall. Current understanding of the winter monsoon is limited by conflicting proxy observations, resulting from the decoupling of regional atmospheric circulation patterns and local rainfall dynamics. These signals are difficult to decipher in paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we present a winter monsoon speleothem record from Southeast Asia covering the Holocene and find that winter and summer rainfall changed synchronously, forced by changes in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In contrast, regional atmospheric circulation shows an inverse relation between winter and summer controlled by seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere. We show that disentangling the local and regional signal in paleoclimate reconstructions is crucial in understanding and projecting winter and summer monsoon variability in Southeast Asia.

Seasonal temperatures in West Antarctica during the Holocene.

The recovery of long-term climate proxy records with seasonal resolution is rare because of natural smoothing processes, discontinuities and limitations in measurement resolution. Yet insolation forcing, a primary driver of multimillennial-scale climate change, acts through seasonal variations with direct impacts on seasonal climate1. Whether the sensitivity of seasonal climate to insolation matches theoretical predictions has not been assessed over long timescales. Here, we analyse a continuous record of water-isotope ratios from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core to reveal summer and winter temperature changes through the last 11,000 years. Summer temperatures in West Antarctica increased through the early-to-mid-Holocene, reached a peak 4,100 years ago and then decreased to the present. Climate model simulations show that these variations primarily reflect changes in maximum summer insolation, confirming the general connection between seasonal insolation and warming and demonstrating the importance of insolation intensity rather than seasonally integrated insolation or season duration2,3. Winter temperatures varied less overall, consistent with predictions from insolation forcing, but also fluctuated in the early Holocene, probably owing to changes in meridional heat transport. The magnitudes of summer and winter temperature changes constrain the lowering of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet surface since the early Holocene to less than 162 m and probably less than 58 m, consistent with geological constraints elsewhere in West Antarctica4-7.

Two annual cycles of the Pacific cold tongue under orbital precession.

The Pacific cold tongue annual cycle in sea surface temperature is presumed to be driven by Earth's axial tilt1-5 (tilt effect), and thus its phasing should be fixed relative to the calendar. However, its phase and amplitude change dramatically and consistently under various configurations of orbital precession in several Earth System models. Here, we show that the cold tongue possesses another annual cycle driven by the variation in Earth-Sun distance (distance effect) from orbital eccentricity. As the two cycles possess slightly different periodicities6, their interference results in a complex evolution of the net seasonality over a precession cycle. The amplitude from the distance effect increases linearly with eccentricity and is comparable to the amplitude from the tilt effect for the largest eccentricity values over the last million years (e value approximately 0.05)7. Mechanistically, the distance effect on the cold tongue arises through a seasonal longitudinal shift in the Walker circulation and subsequent annual wind forcing on the tropical Pacific dynamic ocean-atmosphere system. The finding calls for reassessment of current understanding of the Pacific cold tongue annual cycle and re-evaluation of tropical Pacific palaeoclimate records for annual cycle phase changes.

Antarctic surface temperature and elevation during the Last Glacial Maximum.

Water-stable isotopes in polar ice cores are a widely used temperature proxy in paleoclimate reconstruction, yet calibration remains challenging in East Antarctica. Here, we reconstruct the magnitude and spatial pattern of Last Glacial Maximum surface cooling in Antarctica using borehole thermometry and firn properties in seven ice cores. West Antarctic sites cooled ~10°C relative to the preindustrial period. East Antarctic sites show a range from ~4° to ~7°C cooling, which is consistent with the results of global climate models when the effects of topographic changes indicated with ice core air-content data are included, but less than those indicated with the use of water-stable isotopes calibrated against modern spatial gradients. An altered Antarctic temperature inversion during the glacial reconciles our estimates with water-isotope observations.

Rainwater isotopes in central Vietnam controlled by two oceanic moisture sources and rainout effects.

The interpretation of palaeoclimate archives based on oxygen isotopes depends critically on a detailed understanding of processes controlling the isotopic composition of precipitation. In the summer monsoonal realm, like Southeast Asia, seasonally and interannually depleted oxygen isotope ratios in precipitation have been linked to the summer monsoon strength. However, in some regions, such as central Vietnam, the majority of precipitation falls outside the summer monsoon period. We investigate processes controlling stable isotopes in precipitation from central Vietnam by combining moisture uptake calculations with monthly stable isotope data observed over five years. We find that the isotopic seasonal cycle in this region is driven by a shift in moisture source from the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea. This shift is reflected in oxygen isotope ratios with low values (- 8 to - 10‰) during summer and high values during spring/winter (0 to - 3‰), while 70% of the annual rainfall occurs during autumn. Interannual changes in precipitation isotopes in central Vietnam are governed by the timing of the seasonal onset and withdrawal of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which controls the amount of vapour contributed from each source.

Past East Asian monsoon evolution controlled by paleogeography, not CO2.

The East Asian monsoon plays an integral role in human society, yet its geological history and controlling processes are poorly understood. Using a general circulation model and geological data, we explore the drivers controlling the evolution of the monsoon system over the past 150 million years. In contrast to previous work, we find that the monsoon is controlled primarily by changes in paleogeography, with little influence from atmospheric CO2. We associate increased precipitation since the Late Cretaceous with the gradual uplift of the Himalayan-Tibetan region, transitioning from an ITCZ-dominated monsoon to a sea breeze-dominated monsoon. The rising region acted as a mechanical barrier to cold and dry continental air advecting into the region, leading to increasing influence of moist air from the Indian Ocean/South China Sea. We show that, apart from a dry period in the middle Cretaceous, a monsoon system has existed in East Asia since at least the Early Cretaceous.

Ocean dominated expansion and contraction of the late Quaternary tropical rainbelt.

The latitude of the tropical rainbelt oscillates seasonally but has also varied on millennial time-scales in response to changes in the seasonal distribution of insolation due to Earth's orbital configuration, as well as climate change initiated at high latitudes. Interpretations of palaeoclimate proxy archives often suggest hemispherically coherent variations, some proposing meridional shifts in global rainbelt position and the 'global monsoon', while others propose interhemispherically symmetric expansion and contraction. Here, we use a unique set of climate model simulations of the last glacial cycle (120 kyr), that compares well against a compilation of precipitation proxy data, to demonstrate that while asymmetric extratropical forcings (icesheets, freshwater hosing) generally produce meridional shifts in the zonal mean rainbelt, orbital variations produce expansion/contractions in terms of the global zonal mean. This is primarily a dynamic response of the rainbelt over the oceans to regional interhemispheric temperature gradients, which is opposite to the largely local thermodynamic terrestrial response to insolation. The mode of rainbelt variation is regionally variable, depending on surface type (land or ocean) and surrounding continental configuration. This makes interpretation of precipitation-proxy records as large-scale rainbelt movement challenging, requiring regional or global data syntheses.

Topography's crucial role in Heinrich Events.

Heinrich Events, the abrupt changes in the Laurentide Ice Sheet that cause the appearance of the well-observed Heinrich Layers, are thought to have a strong effect on the global climate. The focus of most studies that have looked at the climate's response to these events has been the freshwater flux that results from melting icebergs. However, there is the possibility that the varying height of the ice sheet could force a change in the climate. In this study, we present results from a newly developed coupled climate/ice sheet model to show what effect this topographic change has both on its own and in concert with the flux of freshwater from melting icebergs. We show that the topographic forcing can explain a number of the climate changes that are observed during Heinrich Events, such as the warming and wettening in Florida and the warm sea surface temperatures in the central North Atlantic, which freshwater forcing alone cannot. We also find regions, for example the tropical Atlantic, where the response is a mixture of the two: Here observations may help disentangle the relative importance of each mechanism. These results suggest that the simple paradigm of a Heinrich Event causing climate change via freshwater inputs into the North Atlantic needs to be revised.