Compounding endowment effects when trading draft picks in the Australian Football League.

Endowment effect relates to a situation when decision makers are more likely to retain an object they own, than acquire the same object when they do not own it. Studies have often concluded that players recruited early on through drafts are more likely to be held in team rosters irrespective of their marginal utility. We tested the hypothesis wherein this effect would compound when the pick used to select a player is traded between teams. Using a sample of draftees selected between 2003 and 2016 in the Australian Football League, we created a proportional hazard model to predict the career longevity of a player with their drafting team and overall career. The results suggest each subsequent trade marginally reduced the exit of a player by a log normal rate of 0.269 in their career with the team that initially drafted them. The findings were attributed to the premium requested by the original team that is compounded with every exchange as the reference points used to determine value have also shifted with the trade.

Increasing access to CBT for psychosis patients: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial evaluating brief, targeted CBT for distressing voices delivered by assistant psychologists (GiVE3).

BACKGROUND: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommends that cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) is offered to all patients with a psychosis diagnosis. However, only a minority of psychosis patients in England and Wales are offered CBT. This is attributable, in part, to the resource-intensive nature of CBT. One response to this problem has been the development of CBT in brief formats that are targeted at a single symptom and are deliverable by briefly trained therapists. We have developed Guided self-help CBT (the GiVE intervention) as a brief form of CBT for distressing voices and reported evidence for the feasibility of a randomised controlled trial (RCT) when the intervention was delivered by briefly trained therapists (assistant psychologists). This study will investigate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the GiVE intervention when delivered by assistant psychologists following a brief training. METHODS: This study is a pragmatic, two-arm, parallel group, superiority RCT comparing the GiVE intervention (delivered by assistant psychologists) and treatment as usual to treatment as usual alone, recruiting across three sites, using 1:1 allocation and blind post-treatment and follow-up assessments. A nested qualitative study will develop a model for implementation. DISCUSSION: If the GiVE intervention is found to be effective when delivered by assistant psychologists, this intervention could significantly contribute to increasing access to evidence-based psychological interventions for psychosis patients. Furthermore, implementation across secondary care services within the UK's National Health Service may pave the way for other symptom-specific and less resource-intensive CBT-informed interventions for psychosis patients to be developed and evaluated. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN registration number: 12748453. Registered on 28 September 2022.

Optionality in Australian Football League draftee contracts.

Though player drafts have commonly been utilised to equitably disperse amateur talent and avoid bidding wars, often they have also been accused of creating a monopsony labour market which restricts player movement. Within the Australian Football League (AFL) some have called for the increase of the initial draftee contract from two to three seasons, which further pushes the envelope on monopsony power. Instead of increasing the contract length, this paper suggests a call option to be purchased by the teams allowing them to add a further season to the draftee contract at a predetermined compensation package should they choose to do so at the end of the initial contract. The call prices per pick were calculated using the Black-Scholes model and were valued between 1% and 1.5% of the pick value. However, it failed to follow a monotonic function similar to pick value, owing to managerial overconfidence and sunk investment plays. Overall, the findings allow teams to procure the option of increasing initial draftee contracts and not impede further on a player's ability to move.

OUTdoor Swimming as a nature-based Intervention for DEpression (OUTSIDE): study protocol for a feasibility randomised control trial comparing an outdoor swimming intervention to usual care for adults experiencing mild to moderate symptoms of depression.

BACKGROUND: Depression is common and the prevalence increasing worldwide; at least 1 in 10 people will experience depression in their lifetime. It is associated with economic costs at the individual, healthcare and societal level. Recommended treatments include medication and psychological therapies. However, given the long waiting times, and sometimes poor concordance and engagement with these treatments, a greater range of approaches are needed. Evidence for the potential of outdoor swimming as an intervention to support recovery from depression is emerging, but randomised controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating clinical and cost-effectiveness are lacking. This study seeks to investigate the feasibility of conducting a definitive superiority RCT, comparing an 8-session outdoor swimming course offered in addition to usual care compared to usual care only, in adults who are experiencing mild to moderate symptoms of depression. Feasibility questions will examine recruitment and retention rates, acceptability of randomisation and measures, and identify the primary outcome measure that will inform the sample size calculation for a definitive full-scale RCT. This study will also explore potential facilitators and barriers of participation through evaluation questionnaires, focus-group discussions and interviews. METHODS/DESIGN: To address these aims and objectives, a feasibility superiority RCT with 1:1 allocation will be undertaken. We will recruit 88 participants with mild to moderate symptoms of depression through social prescribing organisations and social media in three sites in England. Participants will be randomised to either (1) intervention (8-session outdoor swimming course) plus usual care or (2) usual care only. Both groups will be followed up for a further 8 weeks. DISCUSSION: If findings from this feasibility RCT are favourable, a fully powered RCT will be conducted to investigate the clinical- and cost-effectiveness of the intervention. Findings from the definitive trial will provide evidence about outdoor swimming for depression for policymakers and has the potential to lead to greater choice of interventions for adults experiencing symptoms of depression. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current controlled trial registration number is ISRCTN 90851983 registered on 19 May 2022.

Outcomes of Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation in Nonagenarians and Octogenarians (Analysis from the National Inpatient Sample Database).

Risks among nonagenarian (age ≥90 years) and octogenarian (age 80 to 89 years) patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) compared with clinically similar septuagenarian (age 70 to 79 years) patients remain unclear. This study aimed to assess the outcomes of TAVI in nonagenarians and octogenarians compared with septuagenarians. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the National Inpatient Sample database to identify patients aged ≥70 years hospitalized for TAVI from 2016 to 2020 and to compare outcomes in nonagenarians and octogenarians versus septuagenarians. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included procedural complications, length of stay (LOS), and total costs. The trends in in-hospital outcomes were evaluated. Results were adjusted for demographic/clinical factors. The total cohort included 263,325 patients hospitalized for TAVI, of whom 11.9% were nonagenarians, 51.1% octogenarians, and 37.0% septuagenarians. After adjustment, nonagenarians and octogenarians had higher odds of in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio 1.80, 95% confidence interval 1.34 to 2.41 for nonagenarians; adjusted odds ratio 1.65, 95% confidence interval 1.35 to 2.01 for octogenarians), heart block, permanent pacemaker insertion, stroke, major bleeding, blood transfusion, and palliative care consultation than septuagenarians (all p <0.01). LOS was longer and the total costs were higher for nonagenarians and octogenarians (both p <0.01). Over the study period, in-hospital mortality decreased in nonagenarians (ptrend = 0.04), and major bleeding, permanent pacemaker insertion, LOS, and costs decreased in all patients aged ≥70 years (ptrend <0.01). In conclusion, nonagenarians and octogenarians who underwent TAVI have higher rates of mortality and procedure-related complications than clinically similar septuagenarians. Further research is necessary to optimize outcomes in this frail population.

Relationships between contract status and player performance in the Australian Football League.

This study analysed the extent to which player performance differs within the Australian Football League (AFL) with respect to the status of a player's contract. AFL Player Ratings (AFLPR) and contract data were obtained during the 2013-2020 AFL seasons for all 827 players listed by an AFL club at the beginning of the 2020 season. A model of "expected performance" was created allowing for an exploration into the differential with actual performance as a function of contract status. Paired t-tests indicated that there was a difference in performance pre- and post-signing their contract for players who signed mid-season (mean change and 95% confidence interval of -1.48 ± 0.93 and -0.49 ± 0.48 AFLPR, at ten match intervals for those in- and out-of-contract at the conclusion of that year's season, respectively). Further differences existed between the groups of players who signed mid-season, as compared to those who signed during the off-season. Correlation analyses indicated that more consistent performers are somewhat less likely to see a reduction in performance post signing as compared to less consistent performers. The applications of these findings have the potential to support organisational decisions relating to the timing and nature of player contracting.

Challenges and considerations in determining the quality of electronic performance & tracking systems for team sports.

Electronic performance & tracking systems (EPTS) are commonly used to track the location and velocity of athletes in many team sports. A range of associated applications using the derived data exist, such as assessment of athlete characteristics, informing training design, assisting match adjudication and providing fan insights for broadcast. Consequently the quality of such systems is of importance to a range of stakeholders. The influence of both systematic and methodological factors such as hardware, software settings, sample rate and filtering on this resulting quality is non-trivial. Highlighting these allows for the user to understand their strengths and limitations in various decision-making processes, as well as identify areas for research and development. In this paper, a number of challenges and considerations relating to the determination of EPTS validity for team sport are outlined and discussed. The aim of this paper is to draw attention of these factors to both researchers and practitioners looking to inform their decision-making in the EPTS area. Addressing some of the posited considerations in future work may represent best practice; others may require further investigation, have multiple potential solutions or currently be intractable.

Evaluating the influence of a constraint manipulation on technical, tactical and physical athlete behaviour.

Evaluating practice design is an important component of supporting skill acquisition and improving team-sport performance. Constraint manipulations, including creating a numerical advantage or disadvantage during training, may be implemented by coaches to influence aspects of player or team behaviour. This study presents methods to evaluate the interaction between technical, tactical and physical behaviours of professional Australian Football players during numerical advantage and disadvantage conditions within a small-sided game. During each repetition of the game, team behaviour was manually annotated to determine: repetition duration, disposal speed, total disposals, efficiency, and disposal type. Global Positioning System devices were used to quantify tactical (surface area) and physical (velocity and high intensity running) variables. A rule association and classification tree analysis were undertaken. The top five rules for each constraint manipulation had confidence levels between 73.3% and 100%, which identified the most frequent behaviour interactions. Specifically, four advantage rules involved high surface area and medium high intensity running indicating the attacking team's frequent movement solution within this constraint. The classification tree included three behaviour metrics: surface area, velocity 1SD and repetition duration, and identified two unique movement solutions for each constraint manipulation. These results may inform if player behaviour is achieving the desired outcomes of a constraint manipulation, which could help practitioners determine the efficacy of a training task. Further, critical constraint values provided by the models may guide practitioners in their ongoing constraint manipulations to facilitate skill acquisition. Sport practitioners can adapt these methods to evaluate constraint manipulations and inform practice design.

Gender-specific psychosocial stressors influencing mental health among women elite and semielite athletes: a narrative review.

Elite and semielite athletes commonly experience mental health concerns and disorders. Compared with men athletes, women athletes are at greater risk of a range of psychological stressors that contribute to health concerns and mental health disorders, which can impact their career satisfaction and longevity. In order to address and improve the mental health of women athletes, it is necessary to simultaneously tackle the gender specific psychosocial stressors that contribute to mental health outcomes. This narrative review examines the gender-specific stressors that affect mental health and well-being in women athletes, some of which are modifiable. Psychosocial stressors identified include exposure to violence, be it psychological, physical or sexual in nature, which can result in a myriad of acute and long-lasting symptoms; and inequities as reflected in pay disparities, under-representation in the media, fewer opportunities in leadership positions and implications associated with family planning and motherhood. Strategies to promote mental health in women athletes should be considered, and where possible, should proactively address gender-specific stressors likely to influence mental health in order to maximise positive outcomes in women athletes.

The Youth Patient and Public Involvement Café-A youth-led model for meaningful involvement with children and young people.

INTRODUCTION: There are few meaningful frameworks or toolkits that exist for involvement with young people. Coproduction is a more recent patient and public involvement (PPI) approach that emphasizes the importance of power-sharing, to set young people as equal partners in the research process. This paper explores the successes and challenges encountered by one coproduced PPI space for young people. METHODS: This paper is written by a team of young people who developed and worked on the Youth PPI Café over a period of 18 months. It explores how we developed a youth-led space for involvement in research. The authors have reflected on their experiences, providing examples of how youth PPI and coproduction were delivered in the NHS, in practice. RESULTS: By working 'with' young people, rather than 'for' them, we offer insights into the successes and challenges of an entirely youth-led involvement space. Despite being effective in shaping mental health research for children and young people, we faced challenges with tokenism, resourcing and diversity and inclusion. CONCLUSIONS: Involving youth meaningfully in research has the potential to inform studies at a macro- and microlevel, enabling positive change within research and within the systems that support young people. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Young people aged 16-24 years with lived experience were included at every stage of this project, from formulation to the delivery and development of the group, to the preparation of this manuscript and its dissemination. Sussex Partnership NHS Foundation Trust's charity 'Heads On' provided funding for this study.

The influence of individual, task and environmental constraint interaction on skilled behaviour in Australian Football training.

An important consideration for sport practitioners is the design of training environments that facilitate skill learning. This study presented a method to determine individual (age, games played, height, mass, and position), environmental (activity type) and task (pressure and possession time) constraint interaction to evaluate player training behaviour. Skill actions (n = 7301) were recorded during training activities (n = 209) at a single professional Australian Football club and four measures of player behaviour were determined: disposal frequency, kick percentage, pressure, and possession time. K-means clustering assigned training activities into four groups, with regression trees used to determine the interaction between constraints and their influence on disposal frequency and type. For most regression trees, only the environmental constraint was included. This showed all players adapted similarly to the constraints of each training activity. In one exception, a critical value of 60 games experience was identified as an individual constraint which interacted with activity type one to influence disposal frequency. Practically, this individual constraint value could be used to guide training design by grouping players of similar experience together. This study is presented as a practical tool for sport practitioners, which considers constraint interaction, to evaluate player behaviour and inform training design.

Quantifying congestion with player tracking data in Australian football.

With 36 players on the field, congestion in Australian football is an important consideration in identifying passing capacity, assessing fan enjoyment, and evaluating the effect of rule changes. However, no current method of objectively measuring congestion has been reported. This study developed two methods to measure congestion in Australian football. The first continuously determined the number of players situated within various regions of density at successive time intervals during a match using density-based clustering to group players as 'primary', 'secondary', or 'outside'. The second method aimed to classify the level of congestion a player experiences (high, nearby, or low) when disposing of the ball using the Random Forest algorithm. Both approaches were developed using data from the 2019 and 2021 Australian Football League (AFL) regular seasons, considering contextual variables, such as field position and quarter. Player tracking data and match event data from professional male players were collected from 56 matches performed at a single stadium. The random forest model correctly classified disposals in high congestion (0.89 precision, 0.86 recall, 0.96 AUC) and low congestion (0.98 precision, 0.86 recall, 0.96 AUC) at a higher rate compared to disposals nearby congestion (0.72 precision, 0.88 recall, 0.88 AUC). Overall, both approaches enable a more efficient method to quantify the characteristics of congestion more effectively, thereby eliminating manual input from human coders and allowing for a future comparison between additional contextual variables, such as, seasons, rounds, and teams.

The service user experience of SlowMo therapy: A co-produced thematic analysis of service users' subjective experience.

OBJECTIVES: SlowMo is the first blended digital therapy for paranoia, showing significant small-moderate reductions in paranoia in a recent large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT). This study explored the subjective service-user experience of the SlowMo therapy content and design; the experience of the blended therapy approach, including the triangle of the therapeutic alliance; and the experience of the digital aspects of the intervention. DESIGN: Qualitative co-produced sub-study of an RCT. METHODS: Participants were 22 adult service users with schizophrenia-spectrum psychosis and persistent distressing paranoia, who completed at least one SlowMo therapy session and a 24-week follow-up, at one of 3 sites in Oxford, London, and Sussex, UK. They were interviewed by peer researchers, using a topic guide co-produced by the Patient and Public Involvement (PPI) team. The transcribed data were analysed thematically. Multiple coding and triangulation, and lay peer researcher validation were used to reach a consensus on the final theme structure. RESULTS: Six core themes were identified: (i) starting the SlowMo journey; (ii) the central role of the supportive therapist; (iii) slowing things down; (iv) value and learning from social connections; (v) approaches and challenges of technology; and (vi) improvements in paranoia and well-being. CONCLUSIONS: For these service users, slowing down for a moment was helpful, and integrated into thinking over time. Learning from social connections reflected reduced isolation, and enhanced learning through videos, vignettes, and peers. The central role of the supportive therapist and the triangle of alliance between service user, therapist, and digital platform were effective in promoting positive therapeutic outcomes.

A Framework for Clinicians to Improve the Decision-Making Process in Return to Sport.

Return-to-sport (RTS) decisions are critical to clinical sports medicine and are often characterised by uncertainties, such as re-injury risk, time pressure induced by competition schedule and social stress from coaches, families and supporters. RTS decisions have implications not only for the health and performance of an athlete, but also the sports organisation. RTS decision-making is a complex process, which relies on evaluating multiple biopsychosocial factors, and is influenced by contextual factors. In this narrative review, we outline how RTS decision-making of clinicians could be evaluated from a decision analysis perspective. To begin with, the RTS decision could be explained as a sequence of steps, with a decision basis as the core component. We first elucidate the methodological considerations in gathering information from RTS tests. Second, we identify how decision-making frameworks have evolved and adapt decision-making theories to the RTS context. Third, we discuss the preferences and perspectives of the athlete, performance coach and manager. We conclude by proposing a framework for clinicians to improve the quality of RTS decisions and make recommendations for daily practice and research.

A method to inform team sport training activity duration with change point analysis.

Duration is a key component in the design of training activities in sport which aim to enhance athlete skills and physical qualities. Training duration is often a balance between reaching skill development and physiological targets set by practitioners. This study aimed to exemplify change point time-series analyses to inform training activity duration in Australian Football. Five features of player behaviour were included in the analyses: disposal frequency, efficiency, pressure, possession time and player movement velocity. Results of the analyses identified moments of change which may be used to inform minimum or maximum activity durations, depending on a practitioner's objectives. In the first approach, a univariate analysis determined change points specific to each feature, allowing practitioners to evaluate activities according to a single metric. In contrast, a multivariate analysis considered interactions between features and identified a single change point, reflecting the moment of overall change during activities. Six iterations of a training activity were also evaluated resulting in common change point locations, between 196 and 252 seconds, which indicated alterations to player behaviour between this time period in the training activities conduction. Comparisons of feature segments before and after change points revealed the extent to which player behaviour changed and can guide such duration decisions. These methods can be used to evaluate athlete behaviour and inform training activity durations.

The influence of tactical and match context on player movement in football.

Player movement metrics in football such as speed and distance are typically analysed as aggregates, sometimes outside of any specific tactical or match context. This research adds context to a player's movement over the course of a match by analysing movement profiles s and bringing together tools from the sport science and sports analytics literature. Position-specific distributions of player movement metrics: speed, acceleration and tortuosity were compared across phases of play and in-game win probability using 25 Hz optical player tracking data from all 52 matches at the 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup. Comparing the distributions using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Wasserstein distances, differences were identified in these movement profiles across, in and out of possession phases, with small negligible overall positional trends across in-game win probabilities. In-game win probabilities are used in tandem with phases to present a player specific case study. The results demonstrate how sports analytics metrics can be used to contextualise a subset of movement metrics from sport science and provide a framework for analysis of further movement metrics and sports analytics modelling approaches.

Epidemiology and injury trends in the National Basketball Association: Pre- and per-COVID-19 (2017-2021).

PURPOSE: The aim this study was to provide an epidemiological injury analysis of the National Basketball Association, detailing aspects such as frequency rate, characteristics and impact on performance (missed games), including COVID-19 related and non-related injuries. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted from the 2017-18 to 2020-2021 season. Publicly available records from the official website of the National Basketball Association were collected, including player's profiling data, minutes played per game until the injury occurred, unique injuries and injury description [location (body area), diagnosis (or mechanism)], and missed games due to injury. RESULTS: A total of 625 players and 3543 unique injuries were registered during the period analyzed. There was an increased incidence of missed games and unique injuries ratios, from 2017-18 until 2020-21, even when excluding COVID-19 related cases. The main body areas of injuries corresponded to lower body injuries, specifically knee, ankle and foot. The tendon/ligament group, for both games missed and unique injuries, showed the higher ratios (1.16 and 0.21, respectively), followed by muscle (0.69 and 0.16, respectively) and bones (0.30 and 0.03, respectively). Irrespective of season, the higher percentage of unique injuries occurred in the group of players playing in the 26-35 minutes, followed by the 16-25 minutes played. Guards showed the highest injury ratios compared to other playing positions. Most injuries and missed games due to injury occurred from mid-season to the end of the regular season. The majority of both injuries and missed games were concentrated in the two central experience groups (from 6 to 15 years). CONCLUSIONS: Despite previous efforts to better understand injury risk factors, there has been an increase in unique injuries and missed games. The distribution by body area, type of injury, when they occurred, minutes played and outcomes by play position, age a or years of experience vary between season and franchises.

Characteristics of Complex Systems in Sports Injury Rehabilitation: Examples and Implications for Practice.

Complex systems are open systems consisting of many components that can interact among themselves and the environment. New forms of behaviours and patterns often emerge as a result. There is a growing recognition that most sporting environments are complex adaptive systems. This acknowledgement extends to sports injury and is reflected in the individual responses of athletes to both injury and rehabilitation protocols. Consequently, practitioners involved in return to sport decision making (RTS) are encouraged to view return to sport decisions through the complex systems lens to improve decision-making in rehabilitation. It is important to clarify the characteristics of this theoretical framework and provide concrete examples to which practitioners can easily relate. This review builds on previous literature by providing an overview of the hallmark features of complex systems and their relevance to RTS research and daily practice. An example of how characteristics of complex systems are exhibited is provided through a case of anterior cruciate ligament injury rehabilitation. Alternative forms of scientific inquiry, such as the use of computational and simulation-based techniques, are also discussed-to move the complex systems approach from the theoretical to the practical level.

Modelling the Influence of Task Constraints on Goal Kicking Performance in Australian Rules Football.

BACKGROUND: The primary aim of this study was to determine the influence of task constraints, from an ecological perspective, on goal kicking performance in Australian football. The secondary aim was to compare the applicability of three analysis techniques; logistic regression, a rule induction approach and conditional inference trees to achieve the primary aim. In this study, an ecological perspective has been applied to explore the impact of task constraints on shots on goal in the Australian Football League, such as shot type, field location and pressure. Analytical techniques can increase the understanding of competition environments and the influence of constraints on skilled events. Differing analytical techniques can produce varying outputs styles which can impact the applicability of the technique. Logistic regression, Classification Based on Associations rules and conditional inference trees were conducted to determine constraint interaction and their influence on goal kicking, with both the accuracy and applicability of each approach assessed. RESULTS: Each analysis technique had similar accuracy, ranging between 63.5% and 65.4%. For general play shots, the type of pressure and location particularly affected the likelihood of a shot being successful. Location was also a major influence on goal kicking performance from set shots. CONCLUSIONS: When different analytical methods display similar performance on a given problem, those should be prioritised which show the highest interpretability and an ability to guide decision-making in a manner similar to what is currently observed in the organisation.

Classification of Players Across the Australian Rules Football Participation Pathway Based on Physical Characteristics.

ABSTRACT: Haycraft, JAZ, Kovalchik, S, Pyne, DB, and Robertson, S. Classification of players across the Australian Rules football participation pathway based on physical characteristics. J Strength Cond Res 36(3): 702-709, 2022-This study investigated the utility of physical fitness and movement ability tests to differentiate and classify players into Australian Football League (AFL) participation pathway levels. Players (n = 293, age 10.9-19.1 years) completed the following tests; 5-m, 10-m, and 20-m sprint, AFL planned agility, vertical jump (VJ), running VJ, 20-m multistage fitness test (MSFT), and athletic ability assessment. A multivariate analysis of variance between AFL participation pathway levels was conducted, and a classification tree determined the extent to which players could be allocated to relevant levels. The magnitude of differences between physical fitness and movement ability were level-dependent, with the largest standardized effect size (ES) between Local U12, Local U14, and older levels for most physical fitness tests (ES: -4.64 to 5.02), except the 5-m and 10-m sprint. The 20-m, 5-m, AFL agility, 20-m MSFT, overhead squat, and running VJ (right) contributed to the classification model, with 57% overall accuracy reported (43% under cross-validation). National U16 players were easiest to classify (87%), while National U18 players were most difficult (0%). Physical fitness tests do not seem to differentiate between players after selection into AFL talent pathway levels. Other attributes (i.e., skill, psychological, and sociocultural) should be prioritized over physical fitness and movement attributes by selectors/coaches when considering selection of talented players.