Exploring the role of blood pressure in the black-white disparity in cardiovascular disease mortality: a causal mediation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death in the USA, and high blood pressure is a major risk factor for CVD. Despite the overall declining rates of CVD mortality in the USA in recent years, marked disparities between racial and ethnic groups persist, with black adults having a higher mortality rate than white adults. We investigated the extent to which blood pressure mediated the black-white disparity in CVD mortality. METHODS: Data came from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, a diverse longitudinal cohort. We included 1325 black and 2256 white community-based adults aged 45-80 years free of clinical CVD at baseline and followed for 14 years. We used causal mediation analysis to estimate the effect of race on CVD mortality that was mediated through blood pressure. RESULTS: Black participants had a higher hazard of dying from CVD compared with white participants (adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.28 (95% CI 0.88, 1.88)), though estimates were imprecise. Systolic blood pressure mediated 27% (HR: 1.02, 95% CI 1.00, 1.06) and diastolic blood pressure mediated 55% (HR: 1.07, 95% CI 1.01, 1.10) of the racial disparities in CVD mortality between white and black participants. Mediation effects were present in men but not in women. CONCLUSIONS: We found that black-white differences in blood pressure partially explain the observed black-white disparity in CVD mortality, particularly among men. Our findings suggest that public health interventions targeting high blood pressure prevention and management could be important strategies for reducing racial disparities in CVD mortality.

Forecasting the 20-Year Incidence of Dementia by Socioeconomic Status, Race/Ethnicity, and Region Based on Mid-Life Risk Factors in a U.S. Nationally Representative Sample.

Background: Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) incidence varies based on demographics, but mid-life risk factor contribution to this variability requires more research. Objective: The purpose of this study is to forecast the 20-year incidence of dementia in the U.S. overall and stratified by race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status (SES), and U.S. geographic region given prior mid-life risk factor prevalence and to examine the extent to which risk factor differences 20 years ago may explain current SES, race/ethnicity, or regional disparities in dementia incidence. Methods: We applied the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia (CAIDE) prediction model to the 2006 wave of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) in participants aged 45 to 64 to estimate the 20-year risk of incident ADRD. Results: The 20-year risk of dementia among middle-aged Americans was 3.3% (95% CI: 3.2%, 3.4%). Dementia incidence was forecast to be 1.51 (95% CI: 1.32, 1.71) and 1.27 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.44) times that in Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Black individuals respectively compared statistically to Non-Hispanic White individuals given mid-life risk factors. There was a progressive increase in dementia risk from the lowest versus highest SES quintile. For geographic region, dementia incidence was forecast to be 1.17 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.30) and 1.27 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.43) times that in Midwestern and Southern individuals respectively compared statistically to Western individuals. Conclusions: Some disparities in dementia incidence could be explained by differences in mid-life risk factors and may point toward policy interventions designed to lessen the ADRD disease burden through early prevention.

Genetically Determined Circulating Lactase/Phlorizin Hydrolase Concentrations and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study.

Previous research has found that milk is associated with a decreased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, it is unclear whether the milk digestion by the enzyme lactase-phlorizin hydrolase (LPH) plays a role in CRC susceptibility. Our study aims to investigate the direct causal relationship of CRC risk with LPH levels by applying a two-sample Mendelian Randomization (MR) strategy. Genetic instruments for LPH were derived from the Fenland Study, and CRC-associated summary statistics for these instruments were extracted from the FinnGen Study, PLCO Atlas Project, and Pan-UK Biobank. Primary MR analyses focused on a cis-variant (rs4988235) for LPH levels, with results integrated via meta-analysis. MR analyses using all variants were also undertaken. This analytical approach was further extended to assess CRC subtypes (colon and rectal). Meta-analysis across the three datasets illustrated an inverse association between genetically predicted LPH levels and CRC risk (OR: 0.92 [95% CI, 0.89-0.95]). Subtype analyses revealed associations of elevated LPH levels with reduced risks for both colon (OR: 0.92 [95% CI, 0.89-0.96]) and rectal cancer (OR: 0.92 [95% CI, 0.87, 0.98]). Consistency was observed across varied analytical methods and datasets. Further exploration is warranted to unveil the underlying mechanisms and validate LPH's potential role in CRC prevention.

Association Between Gestational Diabetes Mellitus and Hypertension: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies With a Quantitative Bias Analysis of Uncontrolled Confounding.

BACKGROUND: Whether individuals with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) had an increased risk of hypertension remains unclear. We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to examine the association between GDM and hypertension and performed a quantitative bias analysis to quantify the impact of uncontrolled confounding due to antenatal psychological stress. METHODS: We searched databases (PUBMED, EMBASE, and Web of Science) through 2022/11. Eligible studies were cohort studies that reported the association of GDM with hypertension. We assessed the risk of bias using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for cohort studies. We pooled adjusted risk ratios with 95% CIs using a random effects model. We performed the quantitative bias analysis using the bias formula. RESULTS: We included 15 cohort studies, with a total of 3 959 520 (GDM, 175 378; non-GDM, 3 784 142) individuals. During the follow-up of 2 to 20 years, 106 560 cases of hypertension were reported. We found that GDM was associated with a higher risk of hypertension (pooled risk ratio, 1.78 [95% CI, 1.47, 2.17]). The risk ratio was lower among cohorts assessing incident (1.58 [95% CI, 1.29, 1.95]) than prevalent hypertension (2.60 [95% CI, 2.40, 2.83]). However, other subgroup analyses showed no differences. The quantitative bias analysis revealed that if the uncontrolled confounder of antenatal psychological stress was additionally adjusted, the positive association between GDM and hypertension would attenuate slightly (≤18%) but remains positive. CONCLUSIONS: Limitations of this study included residual confounding and discrepancies in GDM and hypertension ascertainments. Our findings indicate that GDM is positively associated with hypertension after the index pregnancy.

Evaluating the impact of the Medicaid expansion program on diabetes hospitalization.

Diabetes is the most expensive chronic disease in the United States, and hospital inpatient care accounts for 30% of the total medical expenditures. Medical costs for people with limited resources are covered by Medicaid, a joint federal and state program, and its expansion that extent the coverage to those with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty level. We investigated the impact of Medicaid expansion on diabetes hospitalizations by states and payer, among adults aged 19 to 64 years old, 5 years after the expansion. We found that Medicaid expansion decreased total diabetes hospitalization in most states and a diabetes hospitalization payer mix shifted from private insurance and uninsured to Medicaid. The percentage of diabetes hospitalizations paid by Medicaid increased by 11% (95% CI 7%, 16%), while the percentage paid by private insurance decreased by 6% (95% CI - 8%, - 3%) and the percentage of uninsured diabetes hospitalization decreased by 13% (95% CI - 18%, - 9%).

The role of breastfeeding support in racial/ethnic disparities in breastfeeding practices.

BACKGROUND: Persistent racial/ethnic disparities in breastfeeding practices in the United States are well documented but the underlying causes remain unclear. While racial/ethnic disparities are often intertwined with socioeconomic disparities in breastfeeding, studies suggest that lack of breastfeeding support from family, health care organizations and workplaces may contribute to racial/ethnic disparities in breastfeeding rates. No studies have investigated the extent to which racial/ethnic disparities in breastfeeding practices can be explained by breastfeeding support. METHODS: We used survey data from participants of a federal nutrition assistance program in Los Angeles County, the most populous county in the United States, to examine causal mechanisms underlying racial/ethnic disparities in breastfeeding in five groups: Spanish-speaking Latina, English-speaking Latina, Non-Hispanic White (NHW), Non-Hispanic Black (NHB) and Non-Hispanic Asian (NHA). Applying causal mediation analysis, this study estimated the proportion of racial/ethnic differences in breastfeeding ('any' breastfeeding, i.e., partial or exclusive) rates at 6 months that could be explained by differential access to breastfeeding support from family, birth hospitals and workplaces. RESULTS: NHB and English-speaking Latina mothers were less likely, and Spanish-speaking Latina mothers more likely to breastfeed through 6 months than NHW mothers. Lack of breastfeeding support from family, hospitals and workplaces accounted for approximately 68% of the difference in any breastfeeding rates at 6 months between NHW and NHB mothers and 36% of the difference between NHW and English-speaking Latina mothers. CONCLUSION: These findings highlight the importance of improving support from family, hospitals and workplaces for breastfeeding mothers to reduce racial/ethnic disparities in breastfeeding.

Medicaid Expansion and Racial-Ethnic and Sex Disparities in Cardiovascular Diseases Over 6 Years: A Generalized Synthetic Control Approach.

BACKGROUND: Studies have suggested Medicaid expansion enacted in 2014 has resulted in a reduction in overall cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the United States. However, it is unknown whether Medicaid expansion has a similar effect across race-ethnicity and sex. We investigated the effect of Medicaid expansion on CVD mortality across race-ethnicity and sex. METHODS: Data come from the behavioral risk factor surveillance system and the US Centers for Disease Control's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research, spanning the period 2000-2019. We used the generalized synthetic control method, a quasi-experimental approach, to estimate effects. RESULTS: Medicaid expansion was associated with -5.36 (mean difference [MD], 95% confidence interval [CI] = -22.63, 11.91) CVD deaths per 100,000 persons per year among Blacks; -4.28 (MD, 95% CI = -30.08, 21.52) among Hispanics; -3.18 (MD, 95% CI = -8.30, 1.94) among Whites; -5.96 (MD, 95% CI = -15.42, 3.50) among men; and -3.34 (MD, 95% CI = -8.05, 1.37) among women. The difference in mean difference (DMD) between the effect of Medicaid expansion in Blacks compared with Whites was -2.18; (DMD, 95% CI = -20.20, 15.83); between that in Hispanics compared with Whites: -1.10; (DMD, 95% CI = -27.40, 25.20) and between that in women compared with men: 2.62; (DMD, 95% CI = -7.95, 13.19). CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid expansion was associated with a reduction in CVD mortality overall and in White, Black, Hispanic, male, and female subpopulations. Also, our study did not find any difference or disparity in the effect of Medicaid on CVD across race-ethnicity and sex-gender subpopulations, likely owing to imprecise estimates.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of insecticide ban aimed at preventing Parkinson's disease in Central California.

BACKGROUND: Our study assessed whether banning specific insecticides to reduce the PD burden in three Central California (CA) counties is cost-effective. METHOD: We applied a cost-effectiveness analysis using a cohort-based Markov model to estimate the impact and costs of banning seven insecticides that were previously associated with PD in these counties as well as mixture exposures to some of these pesticides. We relied for our estimations on the cohort of 65- and 66-year-olds living in these counties who were unaffected by PD at baseline in 2020 and projected their incidence, costs, and reduction in quality-adjusted-life-years (QALY) loss due to developing PD over a 20-year period. We included a shiny app for modeling different scenarios (https://sherlockli.shinyapps.io/pesticide_pd_economics_part_2/). RESULTS: According to our scenarios, banning insecticides to reduce the occurrence of PD in three Central CA counties was cost-effective relative to not banning insecticides. In the worst-case scenario of exposure to a single pesticide, methomyl, versus none would result in an estimated 205 (95 % CI: 75, 348) additional PD cases or 12 % (95 % CI: 4 %, 20 %) increase in PD cases over a 20-year period based on residential proximity to pesticide applications. The increase in PD cases due to methomyl would increase health-related costs by $72.0 million (95 % CI: $5.5 million, $187.4 million). Each additional PD patient due to methomyl exposure would incur $109,327 (95 % CI, $5554, $347,757) in costs per QALY loss due to PD. Exposure to methomyl based on workplace proximity to pesticide applications generated similar estimates. The highest PD burden and associated costs would be incurred from exposure to multiple pesticides simultaneously. CONCLUSION: Our study provides an assessment of the cost-effectiveness of banning specific insecticides to reduce PD burden in terms of health-related QALYs and related costs. This information may help policymakers and stakeholders to make decisions concerning the regulation of pesticides.

Evaluating the use of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis among pregnant and postpartum adolescent girls and young women in Cape Town, South Africa.

Background: Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in South Africa are at a higher risk of acquiring HIV. Despite the increasing availability of daily oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention, knowledge on PrEP use during pregnancy and postpartum periods at antenatal care (ANC) facilities remains inadequate. Methods: Data from HIV-uninfected pregnant women in Cape Town, South Africa, were used in this study. These women aged 16-24 years were enrolled in the PrEP in pregnancy and postpartum (PrEP-PP) cohort study during their first ANC visit. Using the PrEP cascade framework, the outcomes of the study were PrEP initiation (prescribed tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine at baseline), continuation (returned for prescription), and persistence [quantifiable tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP) in dried blood samples]. The two primary exposures of this study were risk perception for HIV and baseline HIV risk score (0-5), which comprised condomless sex, more than one sexual partner, partner living with HIV or with unknown serostatus, laboratory-confirmed sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and hazardous alcohol use before pregnancy (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test for Consumption score ≥ 3). Logistic regression was used to examine the association between HIV risk and PrEP, adjusting for a priori confounders. Results: A total of 486 pregnant women were included in the study, of which 16% were "adolescents" (aged 16-18 years) and 84% were "young women" (aged 19-24 years). The adolescents initiated ANC later than the young women [median = 28 weeks (20-34) vs. 23 weeks (16-34), p = 0.04]. Approximately 41% of the AGYW were diagnosed with sexually transmitted infection at baseline. Overall, 83% of the AGYW initiated PrEP use during their first ANC. The percentage of PrEP continuation was 63% at 1 month, 54% at 3 months, and 39% at 6 months. Approximately 27% consistently continued PrEP use through 6 months, while 6% stopped and restarted on PrEP use at 6 months. With a higher risk score of HIV (≥2 vs. ≤1), the AGYW showed higher odds of PrEP continuation [adjusted odds ratio: 1.85 (95% CI: 1.12-3.03)] through 6 months, adjusting for potential confounders. Undergoing the postpartum period (vs. pregnant) and having lower sexual risk factors were found to be the barriers to PrEP continuation. TFV-DP concentration levels were detected among 49% of the AGYW, and 6% of these women had daily adherence to PrEP at 3 months. Conclusions: AGYW were found to have high oral PrEP initiation, but just over one-third of these women continued PrEP use through 6 months. Pregnant AGYW who had a higher risk of acquiring HIV (due to condomless sex, frequent sex, and STIs) were more likely to continue on PrEP use through the postpartum period. Pregnant and postpartum AGYW require counseling and other types of support, such as community delivery and peer support to improve their effective PrEP use through the postpartum period. Clinical Trial Number: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03826199.

Group vs Individual Prenatal Care and Gestational Diabetes Outcomes: A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The impact of group-based prenatal care (GPNC) model in the US on the risk of gestational diabetes (GD) and related adverse obstetric outcomes is unknown. Objective: To determine the effects of the GPNC model on risk of GD, its progression, and related adverse obstetric outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a single-site, parallel-group, randomized clinical trial conducted between February 2016 and March 2020 at a large health care system in Greenville, South Carolina. Participants were individuals aged 14 to 45 years with pregnancies earlier than 21 weeks' gestational age; follow-up continued to 8 weeks post partum. This study used an intention-to-treat analysis, and data were analyzed from March 2021 to July 2022. Interventions: Eligible participants were randomized to receive either CenteringPregnancy, a widely used GPNC model, with 10 group-based sessions or traditional individual prenatal care (IPNC). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the incidence of GD diagnosed between 24 and 30 weeks of gestation. The secondary outcomes included progression to A2 GD (ie, GD treated with medications) and GD-related adverse obstetric outcomes (ie, preeclampsia, cesarean delivery, and large for gestational age). Log binomial models were performed to estimate risk differences (RDs), 95% CIs, and P values between GPNC and IPNC groups, adjusting for all baseline covariates. Results: Of all 2348 participants (mean [SD] age, 25.1 [5.4] years; 952 Black participants [40.5%]; 502 Hispanic participants [21.4%]; 863 White participants [36.8%]), 1176 participants were randomized to the GPNC group and 1174 were randomized to the IPNC group. Among all participants, 2144 (91.3%) completed a GD screening (1072 participants [91.3%] in GPNC vs 1071 [91.2%] in IPNC). Overall, 157 participants (6.7%) developed GD, and there was no difference in GD incidence between the GPNC (83 participants [7.1%]) and IPNC (74 participants [6.3%]) groups, with an adjusted RD of 0.7% (95% CI, -1.2% to 2.7%). Among participants with GD, GPNC did not reduce the risk of progression to A2 GD (adjusted RD, -6.1%; 95% CI, -21.3% to 9.1%), preeclampsia (adjusted RD, -7.9%; 95% CI, -17.8% to 1.9%), cesarean delivery (adjusted RD, -8.2%; 95% CI, -12.2% to 13.9%), and large for gestational age (adjusted RD, -1.2%; 95% CI, -6.1% to 3.8%) compared with IPNC. Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial among medically low-risk pregnant individuals, the risk of GD was similar between participants who received GPNC intervention and traditional IPNC, indicating that GPNC may be a feasible treatment option for some patients. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02640638.

Development and validation of a prediction equation for body fat percentage from measured BMI: a supervised machine learning approach.

Body mass index is a widely used but poor predictor of adiposity in populations with excessive fat-free mass. Rigorous predictive models validated specifically in a nationally representative sample of the US population and that could be used for calibration purposes are needed. The objective of this study was to develop and validate prediction equations of body fat percentage obtained from Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry using body mass index (BMI) and socio-demographics. We used the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data from 5931 and 2340 adults aged 20 to 69 in 1999-2002 and 2003-2006, respectively. A supervised machine learning using ordinary least squares and a validation set approach were used to develop and select best models based on R2 and root mean square error. We compared our findings with other published models and utilized our best models to assess the amount of bias in the association between predicted body fat and elevated low-density lipoprotein (LDL). Three models included BMI, BMI2, age, gender, education, income, and interaction terms and produced R-squared values of 0.87 and yielded the smallest standard errors of estimation. The amount of bias in the association between predicted BF% and elevated LDL from our best model was -0.005. Our models provided strong predictive abilities and low bias compared to most published models. Its strengths rely on its simplicity and its ease of use in low-resource settings.

A comparison of quasi-experimental methods with data before and after an intervention: an introduction for epidemiologists and a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: As the interest in and use of quasi-experimental methods to evaluate impacts of health policies have dramatically increased in the epidemiological literature, we set out this study to (i) systematically compare several quasi-experimental methods that use data before and after an intervention and contrast their performance within a simulation framework while providing a brief overview of the methods; and (ii) discuss challenges that could arise from using these methods as well as directions for future research in the context of epidemiological applications. METHODS: We considered single-group designs [pre-post and interrupted time series (ITS)] and multiple-group designs [controlled interrupted time series/difference-in-differences, synthetic control methods (SCMs): traditional SCMs and generalized SCMs]. We assessed performance based on bias and root mean squared error. RESULTS: We identified settings in which each method failed to provide unbiased estimates. We found that, among the methods investigated, when data for multiple time points and for multiple control groups are available (multiple-group designs), data-adaptive methods such as the generalized SCM were generally less biased than other methods evaluated in our study. In addition, when all of the included units have been exposed to treatment (single-group designs) and data for a sufficiently long pre-intervention period are available, then the ITS performs very well, provided the underlying model is correctly specified. CONCLUSIONS: When using a quasi-experimental method using data before and after an intervention, epidemiologists should strive to use, whenever feasible, data-adaptive methods that nest alternative identifying assumptions including relaxing the parallel trend assumption (e.g. generalized SCMs).

Opioid analgesia in necrotizing pancreatitis: Incidence and timing of a hidden crisis.

BACKGROUND: Rates of opioid usage during necrotizing pancreatitis (NP) disease course are unknown. We hypothesized that a significant number of NP patients were prescribed opioid analgesics chronically. METHODS: Single institution IRB-approved retrospective study of 230 NP patients treated between 2015 and 2019. RESULTS: Data were available for 198/230 (86%) patients. 166/198 (84%) were discharged from their index hospitalization with a prescription for an opioid. At the first clinic visit following hospitalization, 110/182 (60%) were using opioids. Six months after disease onset, 72/163 (44%) continued to require opioids. At disease resolution, 38/144 (26%) patients remained on opioid medications. The rate of active opioid prescriptions at six months after disease onset declined throughout the period studied from 68% in 2015 to 39% in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Opioid prescriptions are common in NP. Despite decline over time, 1 in 4 patients remain on opioids at disease resolution. These data identify an opportunity to adjust analgesic prescription practice in NP patients.

Importance of Accounting for Regional Differences in Modifiable Risk Factors for Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias: The Case for Tailored Interventions.

BACKGROUND: We recently estimated that 36.9% of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) cases in the US may be attributable to modifiable risk factors, but it is not known whether national estimates generalize to specific states or regions. OBJECTIVE: To compare national estimates of modifiable risk factors of ADRD to California, overall and by sex and race/ethnicity, and to estimate number of cases potentially preventable by reducing the prevalence of key risk factors by 25%. METHODS: Adults ≥18 years who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey in California (n = 9,836) and the US (n = 378,615). We calculated population attributable risks (PARs) for eight risk factors (physical inactivity, current smoking, depression, low education, diabetes mellitus, midlife obesity, midlife hypertension, and hearing loss) and compared estimates in California and the U.S. RESULTS: In California, overall, 28.9% of ADRD cases were potentially attributable to the combination of risk factors, compared to 36.9% in the U.S. The top three risk factors were the same in California and the U.S., although their relative importance differed (low education [CA:14.9%; U.S.:11.7% ], midlife obesity [CA:14.9%; U.S.:17.7% ], and physical inactivity [CA:10.3%; U.S.:11.8% ]). The number of ADRD cases attributable to the combined risk factors was 199,246 in California and 2,287,683 in the U.S. If the combined risk factors were reduced by 25%, we could potentially prevent more than 40,000 cases in California and 445,000 cases in the U.S. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the importance of examining risk factors of ADRD regionally, and within sex and race/ethnic groups to tailor dementia risk reduction strategies.

Evaluating the impact of community interventions on childhood obesity in populations living in low-income households in Los Angeles: A simulation study.

BACKGROUND: The complex multifactorial nature of childhood obesity makes community interventions difficult to evaluate using traditional approaches; innovative methods are needed. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of various interventions targeting childhood obesity-related behaviours, and classified as using a micro-level (e.g., home visitation programs) or macro-level (e.g., business practices) strategy, on obesity among children enrolled in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). METHODS: We simulated a population of 1500 children enrolled in WIC, with specific diet, physical activity, breastfeeding behaviours and body mass index z-scores (BMIz), following them from age 2 to 5 years. RESULTS: Combined interventions targeting breastfeeding appeared to be moderately effective, reducing BMIz by 0.03 (95% CI -005, -0.01). Two strategy-specific interventions, home visitation programs and business practices targeting obesity-related behaviours, appeared to be moderately effective at reducing BMIz by 0.04 (95% CI -0.06, -0.02) and 0.02 (95% CI -0.04, 0.00), respectively. Contrary to expectation, combining all micro and macro interventions appeared to have no impact or moderately increased the proportion of obesity/overweight among children. CONCLUSION: Interventions targeting breastfeeding behaviour were most effective when both micro and macro strategies were implemented. Interventions targeting obesity-related behaviours in general were effective for two strategies, home visitation and business practices.

Risk Factors Associated With Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementias by Sex and Race and Ethnicity in the US.

Importance: Previous estimates suggested that 1 in 3 cases of Alzheimer disease and related dementia (ADRDs) in the US are associated with modifiable risk factors, the most prominent being physical inactivity, depression, and smoking. However, these estimates do not account for changes in risk factor prevalence over the past decade and do not consider potential differences by sex or race and ethnicity. Objective: To update estimates of the proportion of ADRDs in the US that are associated with modifiable risk factors and to assess for differences by sex and race and ethnicity. Design, Setting, and Participants: For this cross-sectional study, risk factor prevalence and communality were obtained from the nationally representative US Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey data from January 2018 to December 2018, and relative risks for each risk factor were extracted from meta-analyses. Data were analyzed from December 2020 to August 2021. Respondents included 378 615 noninstitutionalized adults older than 18 years. The number before exclusion was 402 410. Approximately 23 795 (~6%) had missing values on at least 1 of the variables of interest. Exposures: Physical inactivity, current smoking, depression, low education, diabetes, midlife obesity, midlife hypertension, and hearing loss. Main Outcomes and Measures: Individual and combined population-attributable risks (PARs) associated with ADRDs, accounting for nonindependence between risk factors. Results: Among 378 615 individuals, 171 161 (weighted 48.7%) were male, and 134 693 (weighted 21.1%) were 65 years and older. Race and ethnicity data were self-reported and defined by the US Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Data; 6671 participants (weighted 0.9%) were American Indian and Alaska Native, 8043 (weighted 5.1%) were Asian, 29 956 (weighted 11.7%) were Black, 28 042 (weighted 16.0%) were Hispanic (any race), and 294 394 (weighted 64.3%) were White. Approximately 1 in 3 of ADRD cases (36.9%) in the US were associated with 8 modifiable risk factors, the most prominent of which were midlife obesity (17.7%; 95% CI, 17.5-18.0), physical inactivity (11.8%; 95% CI, 11.7-11.9), and low educational attainment (11.7%; 95% CI, 11.5-12.0). Combined PARs were higher in men (35.9%) than women (30.1%) and differed by race and ethnicity: American Indian and Alaska Native individuals, 39%; Asian individuals, 16%; Black individuals, 40%; Hispanic individuals (any race), 34%; and White individuals, 29%. The most prominent modifiable risk factors regardless of sex were midlife obesity for American Indian and Alaska Native individuals, Black individuals, and White individuals; low education for Hispanic individuals; and physical inactivity for Asian individuals. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings suggest that risk factors associated with ADRDs have changed over the past decade and differ based on sex and race and ethnicity. Alzheimer risk reduction strategies may be more effective if they target higher-risk groups and consider current risk factor profiles.

Measuring impact of storyline engagement on health knowledge, attitudes, and norms: A digital evaluation of an online health-focused serial drama in West Africa.

Background: "Cest la Vie!" (CLV) is a serial drama that entertains, educates, and promotes positive health behaviors and social change for West African audiences. The purpose of this study was to evaluate if watching the CLV Season 2 series online had an impact on people's health knowledge, attitudes, and norms, focusing on populations in francophone West Africa. Methods: Between July 2019 and October 2019, viewers of CLV and non-viewers were recruited from Facebook and YouTube. We conducted an online longitudinal cohort study that assessed changes in health knowledge, attitudes, and norms (KAN) between these groups. Participants completed a baseline survey prior to the online airing and up to three follow-up surveys corresponding to specific health stories in the series, including sexual violence, emergency contraception, and female circumcision. We used descriptive statistics to describe viewers and non-viewers, and an item response theory (IRT) analysis to identify the effect of viewing CLV on overall KAN. Results: A total of 1674 respondents participated in the study. One in four participants (23%, n = 388) had seen one of the three storylines from CLV Season 2 (ie, CLV viewers). At follow-up, viewers were more likely than non-viewers to know when to correctly use emergency contraception (P < 0.001) and to believe that the practice of female circumcision should end (P = 0.001). Compared to people who did not see CLV, viewers of the series had 26% greater odds of answering pro-health responses at follow-up about sexual assault, emergency contraception, and female circumcision. Further, the level of engagement with specific storylines was associated with a differential impact on overall outcome questions. Conclusions: As internet access continues to grow across the globe and health education materials are created and adapted for new media environments, our study provides a novel approach to examining the impact of online entertainment-education content on health knowledge, attitudes, and norms.

Forecasting Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes Incidence and Burden: The ViLA-Obesity Simulation Model.

Background: Obesity is a major public health problem affecting millions of Americans and is considered one of the most potent risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Assessing future disease burden is important for informing policy-decision making for population health and healthcare. Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a computer model of a cohort of children born in Los Angeles County to study the life course incidence and trends of obesity and its effect on type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: We built the Virtual Los Angeles cohort-ViLA, an agent-based model calibrated to the population of Los Angeles County. In particular, we developed the ViLA-Obesity model, a simulation suite within our ViLA platform that integrated trends in the causes and consequences of obesity, focusing on diabetes as a key obesity consequence during the life course. Each agent within the model exhibited obesity- and diabetes-related healthy and unhealthy behaviors such as sugar-sweetened beverage consumption, physical activity, fast-food consumption, fresh fruits, and vegetable consumption. In addition, agents could gain or lose weight and develop type 2 diabetes mellitus with a certain probability dependent on the agent's socio-demographics, past behaviors and past weight or type 2 diabetes status. We simulated 98,230 inhabitants from birth to age 65 years, living in 235 neighborhoods. Results: The age-specific incidence of obesity generally increased from 10 to 30% across the life span with two notable peaks at age 6-12 and 30-39 years, while that of type 2 diabetes mellitus generally increased from <2% at age 18-24 to reach a peak of 25% at age 40-49. The 16-year risks of obesity were 32.1% (95% CI: 31.8%, 32.4%) for children aged 2-17 and 81% (95% CI: 80.8%, 81.3%) for adults aged 18-65. The 48-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus was 53.4% (95% CI: 53.1%, 53.7%) for adults aged 18-65. Conclusion: This ViLA-Obesity model provides an insight into the future burden of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus in Los Angeles County, one of the most diverse places in the United States. It serves as a platform for conducting experiments for informing evidence-based policy-making.

Medicaid Expansion's Impact on Emergency Department Use by State and Payer.

OBJECTIVES: The Affordable Care Act's Medicaid Expansion Program influences healthcare use by increasing insurance coverage. Of particular interest is how this will affect inefficient and expensive emergency department (ED) visits. We estimated the impact of the Medicaid expansion on ED use by states and payer (Medicaid, private insurance, and uninsured) 5 years after the implementation of the Medicaid expansion and illustrated the use of the generalized synthetic control method. METHODS: In this quasi-experiment study, we implemented the generalized synthetic control method to compare states with Medicaid expansion and states without Medicaid expansion. Data were from the Healthcare Cost Utilization Project Fast Stats, which cover >95% of all ED visits. We included states with complete data from 2010 to 2018. RESULTS: Overall, the Medicaid expansion increased Medicaid share of ED visits (average treatment effect on the treated [ATT] 11.39%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 8.76-14.02) and decreased private share of ED visits (ATT -5.80%; 95% CI -7.40 to -4.12) and uninsured share of ED visits (ATT -6.66%; 95% CI -9.78 to -3.55). CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid Expansion Program shifted ED payer mix to Medicaid ED visits from private insurance and uninsured ED visits for adults at age of 19 to 64 years, whereas its effect on total ED volume is mixed among states. States that experienced the largest increase in Medicaid enrollment seem to experience an increase in ED visits although such results did not reach statistical significance.