Progress towards universal health coverage and inequalities in infant mortality: an analysis of 4·1 million births from 60 low-income and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2019.

BACKGROUND: Expanding universal health coverage (UHC) might not be inherently beneficial to poorer populations without the explicit targeting and prioritising of low-income populations. This study examines whether the expansion of UHC between 2000 and 2019 is associated with reduced socioeconomic inequalities in infant mortality in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We did a retrospective analysis of birth data compiled from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs). We analysed all births between 2000 and 2019 from all DHSs available for this period. The primary outcome was infant mortality, defined as death within 1 year of birth. Logistic regression models with country and year fixed effects assessed associations between country-level progress to UHC (using WHO's UHC service coverage index) and infant mortality (overall and by wealth quintile), adjusting for infant-level, mother-level, and country-level variables. FINDINGS: A total of 4 065 868 births to 1 833 011 mothers were analysed from 177 DHSs covering 60 LMICs between 2000 and 2019. A one unit increase in the UHC index was associated with a 1·2% reduction in the risk of infant death (AOR 0·988, 95% CI 0·981-0·995; absolute measure of association, 0·57 deaths per 1000 livebirths). An estimated 15·5 million infant deaths were averted between 2000 and 2019 because of increases in UHC. However, richer wealth quintiles had larger associated reductions in infant mortality from UHC (quintile 5 AOR 0·983, 95% CI 0·973-0·993) than poorer quintiles (quintile 1 0·991, 0·985-0·998). In the early stages of UHC, UHC expansion was generally beneficial to poorer populations (ie, larger reductions in infant mortality for poorer households [infant deaths per 1000 per one unit increase in UHC coverage: quintile 1 0·84 vs quintile 5 0·59]), but became less so as overall coverage increased (quintile 1 0·64 vs quintile 5 0·57). INTERPRETATION: Since UHC expansion in LMICs appears to become less beneficial to poorer populations as coverage increases, UHC policies should be explicitly designed to ensure lower income groups continue to benefit as coverage expands. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Health systems resilience: is it time to revisit resilience after COVID-19?

The concept of health system resilience has been challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic. Even well-established health systems, considered resilient, collapsed during the pandemic. To revisit the concept of resilience two years and a half after the initial impact of COVID-19, we conducted a qualitative study with 26 international experts in health systems to explore their views on concepts, stages, analytical frameworks, and implementation from a comparative perspective of high- and low-and-middle-income countries (HICs and LMICs). The interview guide was informed by a comprehensive literature review, and all interviewees had practice and academic expertise in some of the largest health systems in the world. Results show that the pandemic did modify experts' views on various aspects of health system resilience, which we summarize and propose as refinements to the current understanding of health systems resilience.

Social determinants of health in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic: strengths and limitations of emergency responses.

Economic crises often expose the most vulnerable to higher health risks and tend to exacerbate existing inequalities. The Social Determinants of Health (SDoH) framework illustrates many layers of inequalities that would affect outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic. The impacts of emergency policy responses considering the SDoH framework are important for all sectors in policymaking. However, its assessment in Global South countries is limited, due to high informality rates and data availability. We address this gap using a unique dataset that allows for the analysis of occupational categories before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil, incorporating the emergency assistance provided in 2020. Results show that, although labor earnings fell 4% for the self-employed at each death from COVID-19, increasing unemployment and inactivity among the typically most vulnerable, those effects were offset by emergency policies, reducing poverty. Groups often considered less vulnerable, such as formal employees, had an increase. The policy responses to this shock served then as a leveler of previous SDoH, despite ignoring the health-risk gradient there is along the income distribution. A poverty rebound that ensued after the sudden discontinuation of those policies is a lesson for future crises, and on how SDoH inequalities should be addressed.

Socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequalities in depression prevalence and the treatment gap in Brazil: A decomposition analysis.

Depression is a major global health burden and there are stark socioeconomic inequalities in both the prevalence of depression and access to treatment for depression. In Brazil, racial/ethnic inequalities are of particular concern, but the factors contributing to these inequalities remain mostly unknown. This paper firstly explores determinants of depression and the treatment gap (i.e., untreated afflicted individuals) in Brazil and identifies if socio-economic and health system factors explain changes over time. Secondly, it analyses income and racial/ethnic inequalities in depression and the treatment gap and identifies factors explaining inequalities through decomposition methods. Data from two waves (2013 and 2019) of a representative household-based survey are used. In 2019, 10.8% of adults were depressed, but over 70% of depressed adults did not receive care. Black or brown/mixed Brazilians were more likely to have untreated depression, and region of residence was the most important determinant of these racial/ethnic inequalities. Notably, 44.6% of the difference in the treatment gap between white individuals and black and brown/mixed individuals was not explained by differences in observables, which could potentially be due to discrimination or difficulties in accessing treatment due to other non-observable characteristics. Employment, age, exposure to violence and physical activity are the main contributing factors to income inequalities in depression. These results suggest that policies aimed at improving the levels of exposure of lower-income individuals to risk factors may positively impact mental health and mental health inequalities, while addressing inequalities in service provision and resourcing for mental health and tackling barriers to access stemming from discrimination are essential to bridge the treatment gap equitably.

Primary healthcare protects vulnerable populations from inequity in COVID-19 vaccination: An ecological analysis of nationwide data from Brazil.

Background: There is limited information on the inequity of access to vaccination in low-and-middle-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we described the progression of the Brazilian immunisation program for COVID-19, and the association of socioeconomic development with vaccination rates, considering the potential protective effect of primary health care coverage. Methods: We performed an ecological analysis of COVID-19 immunisation data from the Brazilian National Immunization Program from January 17 to August 31, 2021. We analysed the dynamics of vaccine coverage in the adult population of 5,570 Brazilian municipalities. We estimated the association of human development index (HDI) levels (low, medium, and high) with age-sex standardised first dose coverage using a multivariable negative binomial regression model. We evaluated the interaction between the HDI and primary health care coverage. Finally, we compared the adjusted monthly progression of vaccination rates, hospital admission and in-hospital death rates among HDI levels. Findings: From January 17 to August 31, 2021, 202,427,355 COVID-19 vaccine doses were administered in Brazil. By the end of the period, 64·2% of adults had first and 31·4% second doses, with more than 90% of those aged ≥60 years with primary scheme completed. Four distinct vaccine platforms were used in the country, ChAdOx1-S/nCoV-19, Sinovac-CoronaVac, BNT162b2, Ad26.COV2.S, composing 44·8%, 33·2%, 19·6%, and 2·4% of total doses, respectively. First dose coverage differed between municipalities with high, medium, and low HDI (Median [interquartile range] 72 [66, 79], 68 [61, 75] and 63 [55, 70] doses per 100 people, respectively). Municipalities with low (Rate Ratio [RR, 95% confidence interval]: 0·87 [0·85-0·88]) and medium (RR [95% CI]: 0·94 [0·93-0·95]) development were independently associated with lower vaccination rates compared to those with high HDI. Primary health care coverage modified the association of HDI and vaccination rate, improving vaccination rates in those municipalities of low HDI and high primary health care coverage. Low HDI municipalities presented a delayed decrease in adjusted in-hospital death rates by first dose coverage compared to high HDI locations. Interpretation: In Brazil, socioeconomic disparities negatively impacted the first dose vaccination rate. However, the primary health care mitigated these disparities, suggesting that the primary health care coverage guarantees more equitable access to vaccines in vulnerable locations. Funding: This work is part of the Grand Challenges ICODA pilot initiative, delivered by Health Data Research UK and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Minderoo Foundation. This study was supported by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) - Finance Code 001, Carlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Research Support of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ) and the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro.

A resiliência de sistemas de saúde: apontamentos para uma agenda de pesquisa para o SUS / The health systems resilience: notes for a research agenda for the SUS

RESUMO A pandemia provocada pela Covid-19 deu relevância à resiliência dos sistemas de saúde. Neste artigo, buscou-se explorar elementos que subsidiem uma agenda de pesquisa sobre resiliência para o Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS). A partir de revisão de escopo, analisou-se o desenvolvimento conceitual e metodológico da resiliência aplicada à pesquisa sobre sistemas de saúde em nível internacional e nacional, identificando quem são os grupos formuladores e o que propõem como modelos de análise. Em seguida, apresentou-se uma proposta de modelo de análise de resiliência adaptada às características do sistema de saúde brasileiro. O modelo embasou o apontamento de questões-chave a serem investigadas em pesquisas sobre a resiliência do SUS, a partir de quatro dimensões: governança e liderança, financiamento, recursos (força de trabalho, infraestrutura, medicamentos e tecnologias) e prestação de serviços. Ao final, discutem-se oportunidades e desafios para implementação de uma agenda de pesquisas de resiliência para o SUS.

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the resilience of health systems. In this paper, we seek to explore elements to support a research agenda on resilience for the Unified Health System (SUS). First, based on a scoping review, we analyzed the conceptual and methodological development of resilience applied to health systems research both at international and national levels, identifying who the formulating groups are and what they propose as analytical frameworks. Then, we propose an analytical framework adapted for the Brazilian health system features. The framework underpinned the pointing out of critical issues to be investigated in research on SUS resilience, based on four dimensions: governance and leadership, financing, resources (workforce, infrastructure, medicines, and technologies), and service provision. Finally, we discuss opportunities and challenges for implementing a research agenda on resilience for the SUS.

The impacts of health systems financing fragmentation in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review protocol.

BACKGROUND: Health systems are often fragmented in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This can increase inefficiencies and restrict progress towards universal health coverage. The objective of the systematic review described in this protocol will be to evaluate and synthesize the evidence concerning the impacts of health systems financing fragmentation in LMICs. METHODS: Literature searches will be conducted in multiple electronic databases, from their inception onwards, including MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, CINAHL, Scopus, ScienceDirect, Scielo, Cochrane Library, EconLit, and JSTOR. Gray literature will be also targeted through searching OpenSIGLE, Google Scholar, and institutional websites (e.g., HMIC, The World Bank, WHO, PAHO, OECD). The search strings will include keywords related to LMICs, health system financing fragmentation, and health system goals. Experimental, quasi-experimental, and observational studies conducted in LMICs and examining health financing fragmentation across any relevant metric (e.g., the presence of different health funders/insurers, risk pooling mechanisms, eligibility categories, benefits packages, premiums) will be included. Studies will be eligible if they compare financing fragmentation in alternative settings or at least two-time points. The primary outcomes will be health system-related goals such as health outcomes (e.g., mortality, morbidity, patient-reported outcome measures) and indicators of access, services utilization, equity, and financial risk protection. Additional outcomes will include intermediate health system objectives (e.g., indicators of efficiency and quality). Two reviewers will independently screen all citations, abstract data, and full-text articles. Potential conflicts will be resolved through discussion and, when necessary, resolved by a third reviewer. The methodological quality (or risk of bias) of selected studies will be appraised using established checklists. Data extraction categories will include the studies' objective and design, the fragmentation measurement and domains, and health outcomes linked to the fragmentation. A narrative synthesis will be used to describe the results and characteristics of all included studies and to explore relationships and findings both within and between the studies. DISCUSSION: Evidence on the impacts of health system fragmentation in LMICs is key for identifying evidence gaps and priority areas for intervention. This knowledge will be valuable to health system policymakers aiming to strengthen health systems in LMICs. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42020201467.

Effect of socioeconomic inequalities and vulnerabilities on health-system preparedness and response to COVID-19 in Brazil: a comprehensive analysis.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 spread rapidly in Brazil despite the country's well established health and social protection systems. Understanding the relationships between health-system preparedness, responses to COVID-19, and the pattern of spread of the epidemic is particularly important in a country marked by wide inequalities in socioeconomic characteristics (eg, housing and employment status) and other health risks (age structure and burden of chronic disease). METHODS: From several publicly available sources in Brazil, we obtained data on health risk factors for severe COVID-19 (proportion of the population with chronic disease and proportion aged ≥60 years), socioeconomic vulnerability (proportions of the population with housing vulnerability or without formal work), health-system capacity (numbers of intensive care unit beds and physicians), coverage of health and social assistance, deaths from COVID-19, and state-level responses of government in terms of physical distancing policies. We also obtained data on the proportion of the population staying at home, based on locational data, as a measure of physical distancing adherence. We developed a socioeconomic vulnerability index (SVI) based on household characteristics and the Human Development Index. Data were analysed at the state and municipal levels. Descriptive statistics and correlations between state-level indicators were used to characterise the relationship between the availability of health-care resources and socioeconomic characteristics and the spread of the epidemic and the response of governments and populations in terms of new investments, legislation, and physical distancing. We used linear regressions on a municipality-by-month dataset from February to October, 2020, to characterise the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths and response to the epidemic across municipalities. FINDINGS: The initial spread of COVID-19 was mostly affected by patterns of socioeconomic vulnerability as measured by the SVI rather than population age structure and prevalence of health risk factors. The states with a high (greater than median) SVI were able to expand hospital capacity, to enact stringent COVID-19-related legislation, and to increase physical distancing adherence in the population, although not sufficiently to prevent higher COVID-19 mortality during the initial phase of the epidemic compared with states with a low SVI. Death rates accelerated until June, 2020, particularly in municipalities with the highest socioeconomic vulnerability. Throughout the following months, however, differences in policy response converged in municipalities with lower and higher SVIs, while physical distancing remained relatively higher and death rates became relatively lower in the municipalities with the highest SVIs compared with those with lower SVIs. INTERPRETATION: In Brazil, existing socioeconomic inequalities, rather than age, health status, and other risk factors for COVID-19, have affected the course of the epidemic, with a disproportionate adverse burden on states and municipalities with high socioeconomic vulnerability. Local government responses and population behaviour in the states and municipalities with higher socioeconomic vulnerability have helped to contain the effects of the epidemic. Targeted policies and actions are needed to protect those with the greatest socioeconomic vulnerability. This experience could be relevant in other low-income and middle-income countries where socioeconomic vulnerability varies greatly. FUNDING: None. TRANSLATION: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Financing needs, spending projection, and the future of health in Brazil.

In this paper we adopt a growth accounting projection model to estimate and characterize health-financing needs in Brazil as well as to assess the extent to which financing needs may diverge from spending capacity in the future. We estimate an annual increase of 0.71% in the share of projected financing needs relative to GDP, with excess growth rates being 0.74% and 0.69% for the public and private health sectors, respectively. Institutional reforms and public spending restrictions may leverage public-private segmentation in health financing throughout the next decades, thus potentially leading to losses of equity in the system. Our projections contribute to a scant empirical literature on health financing sustainability in low- and middle-income countries and shed light on the role of spending capacity and institutional constraints over the path towards universal health coverage.

The quality of alternative models of primary health care and morbidity and mortality in Brazil: a national longitudinal analysis.

Background: Evidence is limited on health benefits from quality improvement of primary healthcare (PHC) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study investigated whether increasing PHC quality in Brazil with highly-skilled health professionals and integrated community health workers (CHWs) was associated with reductions in hospitalizations and mortality beyond benefits derived from increasing access. Methods: Annual municipal-level data for 5,411 municipalities between 2000 and 2014 were analysed using fixed effects panel regressions. PHC quality was measured as: i) the proportion of consultations provided by highly-skilled health professionals (doctors and nurses); and ii) the proportion of visits provided by CHWs from multidisciplinary PHC teams. Models assessed associations between PHC quality and hospitalization and mortality from diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), tuberculosis, leprosy, perinatal and maternal causes, and adjusted for PHC access, utilisation, presence of secondary care services, and socioeconomic factors. Findings: A one percentage point increase in the proportion of consultations provided by highly-skilled health professionals was associated with 0•019 fewer deaths from diabetes per 100,000 population (95%CI: -0•034, -0•003; p-value: 0.0167) and 0•029 fewer hospitalizations per 100,000 from leprosy (95%CI: -0•055, -0•002; p-value: 0.0321). A one percentage point increase in the proportion of care provided by CHWs from multidisciplinary PHC teams was associated with 0•025 fewer deaths from CVD per 100,000 (95%CI: -0•050, -0•001; p-value: 0.0442) and 0•148 fewer maternal hospital admissions per 100,000 (95%CI: -0•286, -0•010; p-value: 0.0356). No significant associations were found for the other twenty pairs of exposures and outcomes analysed. Interpretation: Investing in higher-quality PHC models with highly-skilled health professionals and integrated CHWs can deliver reductions in mortality and hospitalizations in LMICs. Funding: None.

Subsidizing access to prescription drugs and health outcomes: The case of diabetes.

This paper evaluates the health effects of a large-scale subsidizing program of prescription drugs introduced in Brazil, the Aqui Tem Farmácia Popular program (ATFP). We exploit features of the program to identify its effects on mortality and hospitalization rates by diabetes for individuals aged 40 years or more. We find weak evidence for a decline in mortality, but a robust reduction in hospitalization rates. According to our preferred specification, an additional ATFP pharmacy per 100,000 inhabitants is associated with a decrease in hospitalization rates by diabetes of 8.2, which corresponds to 3.6% of its baseline rate. Effects are larger for Type II diabetes in comparison to Type I, and among patients with relatively lower socioeconomic status. Overall, the results are consistent with insulin-dependent patients being relatively less responsive to subsidies because of higher immediate life-threatening risks; and with lower-SES individuals being more responsive because of liquidity constraints. These results support the view that the optimal design of health systems and cost-sharing mechanisms should take into account equity concerns, heterogeneous impacts by health condition, and their potential offsetting effects on the utilization of downstream health services.

Effect of economic recession and impact of health and social protection expenditures on adult mortality: a longitudinal analysis of 5565 Brazilian municipalities.

BACKGROUND: Economic recession might worsen health in low-income and middle-income countries with precarious job markets and weak social protection systems. Between 2014-16, a major economic crisis occurred in Brazil. We aimed to assess the association between economic recession and adult mortality in Brazil and to ascertain whether health and social welfare programmes in the country had a protective effect against the negative impact of this recession. METHODS: In this longitudinal analysis, we obtained data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics, the Ministry of Social Development and Fight Against Hunger, and the Information System for the Public Budget in Health to assess changes in state unemployment level and mortality among adults (aged ≥15 years) in Brazil between 2012 and 2017. Outcomes were municipal all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for all adults and across population subgroups stratified by age, sex, and race. We used fixed-effect panel regression models with quarterly timepoints to assess the association between recession and changes in mortality. Mortality and unemployment rates were detrended using Hodrick-Prescott filters to assess cyclical variation and control for underlying trends. We tested interactions between unemployment and terciles of municipal social protection and health-care expenditure to assess whether the relationship between unemployment and mortality varied. FINDINGS: Between 2012 and 2017, 7 069 242 deaths were recorded among adults (aged ≥15 years) in 5565 municipalities in Brazil. During this time period, the mean crude municipal adult mortality rate increased by 8·0% from 143·1 deaths per 100 000 in 2012 to 154·5 deaths per 100 000 in 2017. An increase in unemployment rate of 1 percentage-point was associated with a 0·50 increase per 100 000 population per rter (95% CI 0·09-0·91) in all-cause mortality, mainly due to cancer and cardiovascular disease. Between 2012 and 2017, higher unemployment accounted for 31 415 excess deaths (95% CI 29 698-33 132). All-cause mortality increased among black or mixed race (pardo) Brazilians (a 0·46 increase [95% CI 0·15-0·80]), men (0·67 [0·22-1·13]), and individuals aged 30-59 years (0·43 [0·16-0·69] per 1 percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate. No significant association was identified between unemployment and all-cause mortality for white Brazilian, women, adolescents (aged 15-29 years), or older and retired individuals (aged ≥60 years). In municipalities with high expenditure on health and social protection programmes, no significant increases in recession-related mortality were observed. INTERPRETATION: The Brazilian recession contributed to increases in mortality. However, health and social protection expenditure seemed to mitigate detrimental health effects, especially among vulnerable populations. This evidence provides support for stronger health and social protection systems globally. FUNDING: None.

Brazil's unified health system: the first 30 years and prospects for the future.

In 1988, the Brazilian Constitution defined health as a universal right and a state responsibility. Progress towards universal health coverage in Brazil has been achieved through a unified health system (Sistema Único de Saúde [SUS]), created in 1990. With successes and setbacks in the implementation of health programmes and the organisation of its health system, Brazil has achieved nearly universal access to health-care services for the population. The trajectory of the development and expansion of the SUS offers valuable lessons on how to scale universal health coverage in a highly unequal country with relatively low resources allocated to health-care services by the government compared with that in middle-income and high-income countries. Analysis of the past 30 years since the inception of the SUS shows that innovations extend beyond the development of new models of care and highlights the importance of establishing political, legal, organisational, and management-related structures, with clearly defined roles for both the federal and local governments in the governance, planning, financing, and provision of health-care services. The expansion of the SUS has allowed Brazil to rapidly address the changing health needs of the population, with dramatic upscaling of health service coverage in just three decades. However, despite its successes, analysis of future scenarios suggests the urgent need to address lingering geographical inequalities, insufficient funding, and suboptimal private sector-public sector collaboration. Fiscal policies implemented in 2016 ushered in austerity measures that, alongside the new environmental, educational, and health policies of the Brazilian government, could reverse the hard-earned achievements of the SUS and threaten its sustainability and ability to fulfil its constitutional mandate of providing health care for all.

O Impacto das Unidades de Pronto Atendimento (UPAs) 24h sobre indicadores de mortalidade: evidências para o Rio de Janeiro / The Impact of emergency care units on mortality : evidence from Rio de Janeiro

Este artigo avalia o impacto das Unidades de Pronto Atendimento (UPAs) 24h sobre as taxas de mortalidade nos municípios do estado do Rio de Janeiro entre 2000 e 2011. Para tanto, estimou-se um modelo de dados em painel ao nível do município-mês, no qual se identificou o efeito das UPAs sobre as taxas de mortalidade por município de residência, local de ocorrência e causa do óbito. Observou-se que as UPAs têm um efeito negativo, porém não significativo sobre a taxa geral de mortalidade. Ao caracterizar este efeito com mais detalhes, por local de ocorrência e causa do óbito, observou-se uma redução significativa dos óbitos em hospitais (-16%) e na rua (-27%), mas um aumento de óbitos ocorridos em outros estabelecimentos de saúde (em que as UPAs estão classificadas). Isso sugere realocação parcial de óbitos entre locais de ocorrência. Ao examinar efeitos sobre a mortalidade em hospitais, observou-se um efeito negativo sobre óbitos por doenças circulatórias e endócrinas, bem como por causas externas.

This article evaluates the effects of emergency medical care units (UPA) 24h on mortality in municipalities of the state of Rio de Janeiro between 2000 through 2011. We estimate a panel data model at the municipality-by-month level to identify the impacts of UPA on mortality rates by municipality of residence, location and cause of death. We find that UPA has negative but statistically insignificant effects on the overall mortality rate. When we further characterize these effects by location and cause of death, we observe a significant reduction in the mortality rates of death occurred in hospitals (-16%), in the streets (-27%), but an increase in the number of deaths at other health facilities, such as UPA. This suggests a spatial reallocation of deaths across location of occurrence. When we further examine the UPA's impacts on mortality rates in hospitals, we find negative effects on deaths caused by circulatory and endocrine diseases, as well as by external causes.