Climate-mediated population dynamics of a migratory songbird differ between the trailing edge and range core.

Understanding the demographic drivers of range contractions is important for predicting species' responses to climate change; however, few studies have examined the effects of climate change on survival and recruitment across species' ranges. We show that climate change can drive trailing edge range contractions through the effects on apparent survival, and potentially recruitment, in a migratory songbird. We assessed the demographic drivers of trailing edge range contractions using a long-term demography dataset for the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) collected across elevational climate gradients at the trailing edge and core of the breeding range. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the effect of climate change on apparent survival and recruitment and to forecast population viability at study plots through 2040. The trailing edge population at the low-elevation plot became locally extinct by 2017. The local population at the mid-elevation plot at the trailing edge gradually declined and is predicted to become extirpated by 2040. Population declines were associated with warming temperatures at the mid-elevation plot, although results were more equivocal at the low-elevation plot where we had fewer years of data. Population density was stable or increasing at the range core, although warming temperatures are predicted to cause population declines by 2040 at the low-elevation plot. This result suggests that even populations within the geographic core of the range are vulnerable to climate change. The demographic drivers of local population declines varied between study plots, but warming temperatures were frequently associated with declining rates of population growth and apparent survival. Declining apparent survival in our study system is likely to be associated with increased adult emigration away from poor-quality habitats. Our results suggest that demographic responses to warming temperatures are complex and dependent on local conditions and geographic range position, but spatial variation in population declines is consistent with the climate-mediated range shift hypothesis. Local populations of black-throated blue warblers near the warm-edge range boundary at low latitudes and low elevations are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change, potentially leading to local extirpation and range contractions.

Mercury bioaccumulation in temperate forest food webs associated with headwater streams.

The soils and food webs associated with mid to high elevation, forested, headwater streams in northeastern North America are potential hotspots for mercury (Hg) methylation and bioaccumulation, but are not well studied. Our goals were to quantify total Hg (THg) and methyl Hg (MeHg) concentrations in soils and terrestrial food webs associated with headwater streams of northern hardwood forests to identify predictors of small-scale spatial variation in Hg bioaccumulation. We sampled soil characteristics that promote Hg methylation including pH, sulfur and calcium content, and organic matter. To assess spatial variation, we sampled at high (~700 m asl) and mid elevations (~500 m asl), both adjacent to (<1 m) and away from (>75 m) three replicate headwater streams in each of two watersheds of the White Mountains region, New Hampshire, USA. Soils of these forested watersheds differed significantly in pH and the content of calcium, sulfur, organic matter and THg. Conditions for methylation were more favorable in the upland forest sites compared to streamside sites. Significant bioaccumulation of THg occurred in all measured components of the food web, including insects, spiders, salamanders, and birds. Trophic position, as determined by δ15N, was the best predictor of both THg and MeHg bioaccumulation across the sampled taxa and was also a better predictor than spatial location. However, the degree of bioaccumulation at which MeHg significantly affects animal behavior, reproduction or survival is unknown for most taxa in terrestrial habitats, particularly for invertebrates. These findings show that Hg methylation and bioaccumulation is not limited to areas traditionally classified as wetlands or to areas with exceptionally high THg inputs, but that it is a widespread and important phenomenon in the moist deciduous forests of eastern North America.

The interacting effects of food, spring temperature, and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird.

Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species.

The promise and peril of intensive-site-based ecological research: insights from the Hubbard Brook ecosystem study.

Ecological research is increasingly concentrated at particular locations or sites. This trend reflects a variety of advantages of intensive, site-based research, but also raises important questions about the nature of such spatially delimited research: how well does site based research represent broader areas, and does it constrain scientific discovery? We provide an overview of these issues with a particular focus on one prominent intensive research site: the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, USA. Among the key features of intensive sites are: long-term, archived data sets that provide a context for new discoveries and the elucidation of ecological mechanisms; the capacity to constrain inputs and parameters, and to validate models of complex ecological processes; and the intellectual cross-fertilization among disciplines in ecological and environmental sciences. The feasibility of scaling up ecological observations from intensive sites depends upon both the phenomenon of interest and the characteristics of the site. An evaluation of deviation metrics for the HBEF illustrates that, in some respects, including sensitivity and recovery of streams and trees from acid deposition, this site is representative of the Northern Forest region, of which HBEF is a part. However, the mountainous terrain and lack of significant agricultural legacy make the HBEF among the least disturbed sites in the Northern Forest region. Its relatively cool, wet climate contributes to high stream flow compared to other sites. These similarities and differences between the HBEF and the region can profoundly influence ecological patterns and processes and potentially limit the generality of observations at this and other intensive sites. Indeed, the difficulty of scaling up may be greatest for ecological phenomena that are sensitive to historical disturbance and that exhibit the greatest spatiotemporal variation, such as denitrification in soils and the dynamics of bird communities. Our research shows that end member sites for some processes often provide important insights into the behavior of inherently heterogeneous ecological processes. In the current era of rapid environmental and biological change, key ecological responses at intensive sites will reflect both specific local drivers and regional trends.

Warm springs, early lay dates, and double brooding in a North American migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler.

Numerous studies have correlated the advancement of lay date in birds with warming climate trends, yet the fitness effects associated with this phenological response have been examined in only a small number of species. Most of these species--primarily insectivorous cavity nesters in Europe--exhibit fitness declines associated with increasing asynchrony with prey. Here, we use 25 years of demographic data, collected from 1986 to 2010, to examine the effects of spring temperature on breeding initiation date, double brooding, and annual fecundity in a Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens). Data were collected from birds breeding at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA, where long-term trends toward warmer springs have been recorded. We found that black-throated blue warblers initiated breeding earlier in warmer springs, that early breeders were more likely to attempt a second brood than those starting later in the season, and that double brooding and lay date were linked to higher annual fecundity. Accordingly, we found selection favored earlier breeding in most years. However, in contrast to studies of several other long-distance migratory species in Europe, this selection pressure was not stronger in warmer springs, indicating that these warblers were able to adjust mean lay date appropriately to substantial inter-annual variation in spring temperature. Our results suggest that this North American migratory songbird might not experience the same fecundity declines as songbirds that are unable to adjust their timing of breeding in pace with spring temperatures.

Mercury bioaccumulation, speciation, and influence on web structure in orb-weaving spiders from a forested watershed.

Atmospheric deposition is an important source of Hg in remote terrestrial ecosystems of northeastern North America. As high-level invertebrate consumers, orb-weaving spiders (family Araneidae) are excellent subjects for studying the impact of sublethal levels of Hg on forest animals because their webs provide snapshots of behavior and neurological function. Spiders of the diadematus group of the genus Araneus were collected from the Jeffers Brook watershed in the White Mountain National Forest, New Hampshire (USA), and analyzed for Hg content. Webs were photographed and measured to test for correlations between Hg body burden and web structure. Collected spiders contained concentrations of total Hg averaging 44.7 ± 10.0 ng/g Hg (wet mass; mean ± standard deviation), with 37 ± 6% of the total Hg present in the methylmercury form. Mercury loads were likely accumulated through diet (potential prey items contained an average of 43% of the Hg load in collected spiders) and possibly web ingestion. The present study found no direct evidence that the web structure-and thus the prey-capture ability-of spiders in the study area was affected by their Hg body burden.

Multiple density-dependence mechanisms regulate a migratory bird population during the breeding season.

The mechanisms regulating bird populations are poorly understood and controversial. We provide evidence that a migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Dendroica caerulescens), is regulated by multiple density-dependence mechanisms in its breeding quarters. Evidence of regulation includes: stability in population density during 1969-2002, strong density dependence in time-series analyses of this period, an inverse relationship between warbler density and annual fecundity, and a positive relationship between annual fecundity and recruitment of yearlings in the subsequent breeding season. Tests of the mechanisms causing regulation were carried out within the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, during 1997-1999. When individuals from abutting territories were experimentally removed in a homogeneous patch of high-quality habitat, the fecundity of focal pairs nearly doubled, revealing a locally operating crowding mechanism. A site-dependence mechanism was indicated by an inverse relationship between population size and mean territory quality, as well as by greater annual fecundity on the sites that were most frequently occupied and of highest quality. These site-dependence relationships were revealed by intensive monitoring of territory quality and demography at the landscape spatial scale. Crowding and site-dependence mechanisms, therefore, acted simultaneously but at different spatial scales to regulate local abundance of this migratory bird population.