[Prevention of an outbreak of Acinetobacter baumannii in intensive care units: study of the efficacy of different mathematical methods]. / Prevención de un brote de Acinetobacter baumannii en una unidad de cuidados intensivos: eficacia de diversos métodos matemáticos.

INTRODUCTION: Although in past decades, Acinetobacter baumanni infections have been sporadically identified in hospitals, nowadays the nosocomial infections due to this pathogen have notably increased. Its importance is due to its multidrug- resistance, morbidity and mortatility in healthcare settings. Consequently, it is important to predict the evolution of these outbreaks in order to stablish the most efficient control measures. There are several experimental studies shown that the compliance with hand and environmental hygiene and the efficient management of the healthcare work help to control the evolution of these outbreaks. The goal of this work is to formally proof these experimental results by means of the analysis of the results provided by the model. METHODS: A stochastic mathematical model based on cellular automata was developed. The variables and parameters involved in it have been identified from the knowledge of the epidemiology and main characteristics of Acinetobacter infections. RESULTS: The model provides several simulations from different initial conditions. The analysis of these results proofs in a formal way that the compliance with hand and environmental hygiene and an efficient plannification of the work of healtcare workers yield a decrease in the colonized patients. Moreover, this is the unique model proposed studying the dynamics of an outbreak of A. baumanni. CONCLUSIONS: The computational implementation of the model provides us an efficient tool in the management of outbreaks due to A. baumanni. The analysis of the simulations obtained allows us to obtain a formal proof of the behaviour of the measures for control and prevention.

Prevención de un brote de Acinetobacter baumannii en una unidad de cuidados intensivos: eficacia de diversos métodos matemáticos / Prevention of an outbreak of Acinetobacter baumannii in intensive care units: study of the efficacy of different mathematical methods

Introducción. Las infecciones nosocomiales por Acinetobacter baumannii han pasado de ser un hecho poco representativo a habitual en muchos servicios de Medicina Intensiva por su frecuencia, mortalidad asociada y resistencia a los antimicrobianos. Cuando se produce un brote es importante poder predecir su evolución y el impacto global e individualizado de los diferentes métodos de control. Se ha demostrado experimentalmente que tomar determinadas medidas (lavado de manos, planificación del trabajo del personal sanitario, etc.) ayuda a controlar y prevenir tanto la aparición como la extensión de dichos brotes. El objetivo es demostrar de manera formal los resultados empíricos comentados anteriormente valiéndonos de un novedoso modelo matemático. Material y Métodos. Se desarrolló un modelo matemático estocástico basado en autómatas celulares. A partir del conocimiento de la epidemiología y de las características de A. baumanii se identificaron las variables y los parámetros del modelo. Resultados. El modelo proporciona múltiples simulaciones usando diferentes condiciones iniciales. Su análisis demuestra formalmente que el cumplimiento con las normas de higiene así como una correcta planificación del trabajo del personal sanitario reduce el número de pacientes colonizados. Asimismo, no existe en la literatura especializada otro modelo matemático que estudie la dinámica de un brote por A. baumannii. Conclusiones. La implementación computacional del modelo proporciona una herramienta de gran utilidad para la comunidad sanitaria en la gestión de brotes por A. baumanii en ambientes hospitalarios. Se prueba matemáticamente como unas eficientes medidas higiénicas y de planificación del trabajo del personal sanitario reducen el número de pacientes colonizados (AU)

Introduction. Although in past decades, Acinetobacter baumanni infections have been sporadically identified in hospitals, nowadays the nosocomial infections due to this pathogen have notably increased. Its importance is due to its multidrug-resistance, morbidity and mortatility in healthcare settings. Consequently, it is important to predict the evolution of these outbreaks in order to stablish the most efficient control measures. There are several experimental studies shown that the compliance with hand and environmental hygiene and the efficient management of the healthcare work help to control the evolution of these outbreaks. The goal of this work is to formally proof these experimental results by means of the analysis of the results provided by the model. Methods. A stochastic mathematical model based on cellular automata was developed. The variables and parameters involved in it have been identified from the knowledge of the epidemiology and main characteristics of Acinetobacter infections. Results. The model provides several simulations from different initial conditions. The analysis of these results proofs in a formal way that the compliance with hand and environmental hygiene and an efficient plannification of the work of healtcare workers yield a decrease in the colonized patients. Moreover, this is the unique model proposed studying the dynamics of an outbreak of A. baumanni. Conclusions. The computational implementation of the model provides us an efficient tool in the management of outbreaks due to A. baumanni. The analysis of the simulations obtained allows us to obtain a formal proof of the behaviour of the measures for control and prevention (AU)

Modelos matemáticos en el estudio de la resistencia a los antimicrobianos. Perspectivas a partir de un metaanálisis / Matematical modeling of antibiotic resistance. Perspectives from a meta-analysys

La resistencia a los antimicrobianos es uno de los principales problemas a los que se enfrenta la comunidad sanitaria internacional. El estudio de la resistencia se debe realizar desde un enfoque pluridisciplinar y en este sentido se analiza el papel que puede jugar la Modelización Matemática en este escenario. Así se realiza un análisis tanto cuantitativo como cualitativo de los trabajos que han aparecido en la literatura científica mediante una búsqueda en las principales bases de datos: MEDLINE, SCOPUS e ISI Web of Science. Tras el análisis realizado en este estudio se observa que son pocos los trabajos relacionados con la temática objeto de estudio pero han sido publicados en revistas de un alto impacto; asimismo podemos afirmar que el desarrollo de modelos matemáticos puede jugar un papel muy importante a la hora de analizar y estudiar tanto los tratamientos para prevenir la aparición de las resistencias como el establecimiento y evaluación de estrategias de control en ambientes hospitalarios y la predicción del comportamiento de las infecciones por cepas resistentes(AU)

The antibiotic resistance is one of the greatest challenges of the international health community. The study of antibiotic resistance must be a multidisciplinary task and, in this sense, the main goal of this work is to analyze the role that Mathematical Modeling can play in this scenario. A qualitative and cuantitative analysis of the works published in the scientific literature is done by means of a search in the most important databases: MEDLINE, SCOPUS and ISI Web of Science. Consequently, there are few papers related to our topic but the existing works have been published in high-quality and impact international journals. Moreover, we can state that mathematical models are a very important and useful tool to analyze and study both the treatments protocols for resistance prevention and the assesment of control strategies in hospital environtment, or the prediction of the evolution of diseases due to resistant strains(AU)