Global warming-induced Asian hydrological climate transition across the Miocene-Pliocene boundary.

Across the Miocene-Pliocene boundary (MPB; 5.3 million years ago, Ma), late Miocene cooling gave way to the early-to-middle Pliocene Warm Period. This transition, across which atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased to levels similar to present, holds potential for deciphering regional climate responses in Asia-currently home to more than half of the world's population- to global climate change. Here we find that CO2-induced MPB warming both increased summer monsoon moisture transport over East Asia, and enhanced aridification over large parts of Central Asia by increasing evaporation, based on integration of our ~1-2-thousand-year (kyr) resolution summer monsoon records from the Chinese Loess Plateau aeolian red clay with existing terrestrial records, land-sea correlations, and climate model simulations. Our results offer palaeoclimate-based support for 'wet-gets-wetter and dry-gets-drier' projections of future regional hydroclimate responses to sustained anthropogenic forcing. Moreover, our high-resolution monsoon records reveal a dynamic response to eccentricity modulation of solar insolation, with predominant 405-kyr and ~100-kyr periodicities between 8.1 and 3.4 Ma.

Sea level and deep-sea temperature reconstructions suggest quasi-stable states and critical transitions over the past 40 million years.

Sea level and deep-sea temperature variations are key indicators of global climate changes. For continuous records over millions of years, deep-sea carbonate microfossil-based δ18O (δc) records are indispensable because they reflect changes in both deep-sea temperature and seawater δ18O (δw); the latter are related to ice volume and, thus, to sea level changes. Deep-sea temperature is usually resolved using elemental ratios in the same benthic microfossil shells used for δc, with linear scaling of residual δw to sea level changes. Uncertainties are large and the linear-scaling assumption remains untested. Here, we present a new process-based approach to assess relationships between changes in sea level, mean ice sheet δ18O, and both deep-sea δw and temperature and find distinct nonlinearity between sea level and δw changes. Application to δc records over the past 40 million years suggests that Earth's climate system has complex dynamical behavior, with threshold-like adjustments (critical transitions) that separate quasi-stable deep-sea temperature and ice-volume states.

Possible obliquity-forced warmth in southern Asia during the last glacial stage.

Orbital-scale global climatic changes during the late Quaternary are dominated by high-latitude influenced ~100,000-year global ice-age cycles and monsoon influenced ~23,000-year low-latitude hydroclimate variations. However, the shortage of highly-resolved land temperature records remains a limiting factor for achieving a comprehensive understanding of long-term low-latitude terrestrial climatic changes. Here, we report paired mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and monsoon intensity proxy records over the past 88,000 years from Lake Tengchongqinghai in southwestern China. While summer monsoon intensity follows the ~23,000-year precession beat found also in previous studies, we identify previously unrecognized warm periods at 88,000-71,000 and 45,000-22,000 years ago, with 2-3 °C amplitudes that are close to our recorded full glacial-interglacial range. Using advanced transient climate simulations and comparing with forcing factors, we find that these warm periods in our MAAT record probably depends on local annual mean insolation, which is controlled by Earth's ~41,000-year obliquity cycles and is anti-phased to annual mean insolation at high latitudes. The coincidence of our identified warm periods and intervals of high-frequent dated archaeological evidence highlights the importance of temperature on anatomically modern humans in Asia during the last glacial stage.

Orbital climate variability on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau across the Eocene-Oligocene transition.

The first major build-up of Antarctic glaciation occurred in two consecutive stages across the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT): the EOT-1 cooling event at ~34.1-33.9 Ma and the Oi-1 glaciation event at ~33.8-33.6 Ma. Detailed orbital-scale terrestrial environmental responses to these events remain poorly known. Here we present magnetic and geochemical climate records from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau margin that are dated precisely from ~35.5 to 31 Ma by combined magneto- and astro-chronology. These records suggest a hydroclimate transition at ~33.7 Ma from eccentricity dominated cycles to oscillations paced by a combination of eccentricity, obliquity, and precession, and confirm that major Asian aridification and cooling occurred at Oi-1. We conclude that this terrestrial orbital response transition coincided with a similar transition in the marine benthic δ18O record for global ice volume and deep-sea temperature variations. The dramatic reorganization of the Asian climate system coincident with Oi-1 was, thus, a response to coeval atmospheric CO2 decline and continental-scale Antarctic glaciation.

Asynchronous Antarctic and Greenland ice-volume contributions to the last interglacial sea-level highstand.

The last interglacial (LIG; ~130 to ~118 thousand years ago, ka) was the last time global sea level rose well above the present level. Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) contributions were insufficient to explain the highstand, so that substantial Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) reduction is implied. However, the nature and drivers of GrIS and AIS reductions remain enigmatic, even though they may be critical for understanding future sea-level rise. Here we complement existing records with new data, and reveal that the LIG contained an AIS-derived highstand from ~129.5 to ~125 ka, a lowstand centred on 125-124 ka, and joint AIS + GrIS contributions from ~123.5 to ~118 ka. Moreover, a dual substructure within the first highstand suggests temporal variability in the AIS contributions. Implied rates of sea-level rise are high (up to several meters per century; m c-1), and lend credibility to high rates inferred by ice modelling under certain ice-shelf instability parameterisations.

Comparing Climate Sensitivity, Past and Present.

Climate sensitivity represents the global mean temperature change caused by changes in the radiative balance of climate; it is studied for both present/future (actuo) and past (paleo) climate variations, with the former based on instrumental records and/or various types of model simulations. Paleo-estimates are often considered informative for assessments of actuo-climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, but this utility remains debated because of concerns about the impacts of uncertainties, assumptions, and incomplete knowledge about controlling mechanisms in the dynamic climate system, with its multiple interacting feedbacks and their potential dependence on the climate background state. This is exacerbated by the need to assess actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity over different timescales, with different drivers, and with different (data and/or model) limitations. Here, we visualize these impacts with idealized representations that graphically illustrate the nature of time-dependent actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity estimates, evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, agreements, and differences of the two approaches. We also highlight priorities for future research to improve the use of paleo-estimates in evaluations of current climate change.

Causes of ice age intensification across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition.

During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT; 1,200-800 kya), Earth's orbitally paced ice age cycles intensified, lengthened from ∼40,000 (∼40 ky) to ∼100 ky, and became distinctly asymmetrical. Testing hypotheses that implicate changing atmospheric CO2 levels as a driver of the MPT has proven difficult with available observations. Here, we use orbitally resolved, boron isotope CO2 data to show that the glacial to interglacial CO2 difference increased from ∼43 to ∼75 µatm across the MPT, mainly because of lower glacial CO2 levels. Through carbon cycle modeling, we attribute this decline primarily to the initiation of substantive dust-borne iron fertilization of the Southern Ocean during peak glacial stages. We also observe a twofold steepening of the relationship between sea level and CO2-related climate forcing that is suggestive of a change in the dynamics that govern ice sheet stability, such as that expected from the removal of subglacial regolith or interhemispheric ice sheet phase-locking. We argue that neither ice sheet dynamics nor CO2 change in isolation can explain the MPT. Instead, we infer that the MPT was initiated by a change in ice sheet dynamics and that longer and deeper post-MPT ice ages were sustained by carbon cycle feedbacks related to dust fertilization of the Southern Ocean as a consequence of larger ice sheets.

Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise.

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.

A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise.

During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of 'normal' processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000 ppmv.

Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

Dynamics of green Sahara periods and their role in hominin evolution.

Astronomically forced insolation changes have driven monsoon dynamics and recurrent humid episodes in North Africa, resulting in green Sahara Periods (GSPs) with savannah expansion throughout most of the desert. Despite their potential for expanding the area of prime hominin habitats and favouring out-of-Africa dispersals, GSPs have not been incorporated into the narrative of hominin evolution due to poor knowledge of their timing, dynamics and landscape composition at evolutionary timescales. We present a compilation of continental and marine paleoenvironmental records from within and around North Africa, which enables identification of over 230 GSPs within the last 8 million years. By combining the main climatological determinants of woody cover in tropical Africa with paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic data for representative (Holocene and Eemian) GSPs, we estimate precipitation regimes and habitat distributions during GSPs. Their chronology is consistent with the ages of Saharan archeological and fossil hominin sites. Each GSP took 2-3 kyr to develop, peaked over 4-8 kyr, biogeographically connected the African tropics to African and Eurasian mid latitudes, and ended within 2-3 kyr, which resulted in rapid habitat fragmentation. We argue that the well-dated succession of GSPs presented here may have played an important role in migration and evolution of hominins.

Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales.

On 10(3)- to 10(6)-year timescales, global sea level is determined largely by the volume of ice stored on land, which in turn largely reflects the thermal state of the Earth system. Here we use observations from five well-studied time slices covering the last 40 My to identify a well-defined and clearly sigmoidal relationship between atmospheric CO(2) and sea level on geological (near-equilibrium) timescales. This strongly supports the dominant role of CO(2) in determining Earth's climate on these timescales and suggests that other variables that influence long-term global climate (e.g., topography, ocean circulation) play a secondary role. The relationship between CO(2) and sea level we describe portrays the "likely" (68% probability) long-term sea-level response after Earth system adjustment over many centuries. Because it appears largely independent of other boundary condition changes, it also may provide useful long-range predictions of future sea level. For instance, with CO(2) stabilized at 400-450 ppm (as required for the frequently quoted "acceptable warming" of 2 °C), or even at AD 2011 levels of 392 ppm, we infer a likely (68% confidence) long-term sea-level rise of more than 9 m above the present. Therefore, our results imply that to avoid significantly elevated sea level in the long term, atmospheric CO(2) should be reduced to levels similar to those of preindustrial times.

A Cenozoic record of the equatorial Pacific carbonate compensation depth.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate are regulated on geological timescales by the balance between carbon input from volcanic and metamorphic outgassing and its removal by weathering feedbacks; these feedbacks involve the erosion of silicate rocks and organic-carbon-bearing rocks. The integrated effect of these processes is reflected in the calcium carbonate compensation depth, which is the oceanic depth at which calcium carbonate is dissolved. Here we present a carbonate accumulation record that covers the past 53 million years from a depth transect in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The carbonate compensation depth tracks long-term ocean cooling, deepening from 3.0-3.5 kilometres during the early Cenozoic (approximately 55 million years ago) to 4.6 kilometres at present, consistent with an overall Cenozoic increase in weathering. We find large superimposed fluctuations in carbonate compensation depth during the middle and late Eocene. Using Earth system models, we identify changes in weathering and the mode of organic-carbon delivery as two key processes to explain these large-scale Eocene fluctuations of the carbonate compensation depth.

Volcanic ash layers illuminate the resilience of Neanderthals and early modern humans to natural hazards.

Marked changes in human dispersal and development during the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition have been attributed to massive volcanic eruption and/or severe climatic deterioration. We test this concept using records of volcanic ash layers of the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption dated to ca. 40,000 y ago (40 ka B.P.). The distribution of the Campanian Ignimbrite has been enhanced by the discovery of cryptotephra deposits (volcanic ash layers that are not visible to the naked eye) in archaeological cave sequences. They enable us to synchronize archaeological and paleoclimatic records through the period of transition from Neanderthal to the earliest anatomically modern human populations in Europe. Our results confirm that the combined effects of a major volcanic eruption and severe climatic cooling failed to have lasting impacts on Neanderthals or early modern humans in Europe. We infer that modern humans proved a greater competitive threat to indigenous populations than natural disasters.

Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction in precipitation.

The disintegration of the Classic Maya civilization in the Yucatán Peninsula and Central America was a complex process that occurred over an approximately 200-year interval and involved a catastrophic depopulation of the region. Although it is well established that the civilization collapse coincided with widespread episodes of drought, their nature and severity remain enigmatic. We present a quantitative analysis that offers a coherent interpretation of four of the most detailed paleoclimate records of the event. We conclude that the droughts occurring during the disintegration of the Maya civilization represented up to a 40% reduction in annual precipitation, probably due to a reduction in summer season tropical storm frequency and intensity.

A humid corridor across the Sahara for the migration of early modern humans out of Africa 120,000 years ago.

It is widely accepted that modern humans originated in sub-Saharan Africa approximately 150-200 thousand years ago (ka), but their route of dispersal across the currently hyperarid Sahara remains controversial. Given that the first modern humans north of the Sahara are found in the Levant approximately 120-90 ka, northward dispersal likely occurred during a humid episode in the Sahara within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (130-117 ka). The obvious dispersal route, the Nile, may be ruled out by notable differences between archaeological finds in the Nile Valley and the Levant at the critical time. Further west, space-born radar images reveal networks of-now buried-fossil river channels that extend across the desert to the Mediterranean coast, which represent alternative dispersal corridors. These corridors would explain scattered findings at desert oases of Middle Stone Age Aterian lithic industries with bifacial and tanged points that can be linked with industries further to the east and as far north as the Mediterranean coast. Here we present geochemical data that demonstrate that water in these fossil systems derived from the south during wet episodes in general, and penetrated all of the way to the Mediterranean during MIS 5e in particular. This proves the existence of an uninterrupted freshwater corridor across a currently hyperarid region of the Sahara at a key time for early modern human migrations to the north and out of Africa.

Centennial-scale climate cooling with a sudden cold event around 8,200 years ago.

The extent of climate variability during the current interglacial period, the Holocene, is still debated. Temperature records derived from central Greenland ice cores show one significant temperature anomaly between 8,200 and 8,100 years ago, which is often attributed to a meltwater outflow into the North Atlantic Ocean and a slowdown of North Atlantic Deep Water formation--this anomaly provides an opportunity to study such processes with relevance to present-day freshening of the North Atlantic. Anomalies in climate proxy records from locations around the globe are often correlated with this sharp event in Greenland. But the anomalies in many of these records span 400 to 600 years, start from about 8,600 years ago and form part of a repeating pattern within the Holocene. More sudden climate changes around 8,200 years ago appear superimposed on this longer-term cooling. The compounded nature of the signals implies that far-field climate anomalies around 8,200 years ago cannot be used in a straightforward manner to assess the impact of a slowdown of North Atlantic Deep Water formation, and the geographical extent of the rapid cooling event 8,200 years ago remains to be determined.

Similar meltwater contributions to glacial sea level changes from Antarctic and northern ice sheets.

The period between 75,000 and 20,000 years ago was characterized by high variability in climate and sea level. Southern Ocean records of ice-rafted debris suggest a significant contribution to the sea level changes from melt water of Antarctic origin, in addition to likely contributions from northern ice sheets, but the relative volumes of melt water from northern and southern sources have yet to be established. Here we simulate the first-order impact of a range of relative meltwater releases from the two polar regions on the distribution of marine oxygen isotopes, using an intermediate complexity model. By comparing our simulations with oxygen isotope data from sediment cores, we infer that the contributions from Antarctica and the northern ice sheets to the documented sea level rises between 65,000 and 35,000 years ago were approximately equal, each accounting for a rise of about 15 m. The reductions in Antarctic ice volume implied by our analysis are comparable to that inferred previously for the Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1A (refs 16, 17), which occurred about 14,200 years ago, during the last deglaciation.