Applying stochastic and Bayesian integral projection modeling to amphibian population viability analysis.

Integral projection models (IPMs) can estimate the population dynamics of species for which both discrete life stages and continuous variables influence demographic rates. Stochastic IPMs for imperiled species, in turn, can facilitate population viability analyses (PVAs) to guide conservation decision-making. Biphasic amphibians are globally distributed, often highly imperiled, and ecologically well suited to the IPM approach. Herein, we present a stochastic size- and stage-structured IPM for a biphasic amphibian, the U.S. federally threatened California tiger salamander (CTS) (Ambystoma californiense). This Bayesian model reveals that CTS population dynamics show greatest elasticity to changes in juvenile and metamorph growth and that populations are likely to experience rapid growth at low density. We integrated this IPM with climatic drivers of CTS demography to develop a PVA and examined CTS extinction risk under the primary threats of habitat loss and climate change. The PVA indicated that long-term viability is possible with surprisingly high (20%-50%) terrestrial mortality but simultaneously identified likely minimum terrestrial buffer requirements of 600-1000 m while accounting for numerous parameter uncertainties through the Bayesian framework. These analyses underscore the value of stochastic and Bayesian IPMs for understanding both climate-dependent taxa and those with cryptic life histories (e.g., biphasic amphibians) in service of ecological discovery and biodiversity conservation. In addition to providing guidance for CTS recovery, the contributed IPM and PVA supply a framework for applying these tools to investigations of ecologically similar species.

Challenges in predicting the outcome of competition based on climate change-induced phenological and body size shifts.

Climate change is creating warmer, earlier springs, which are causing the phenology of many organisms to shift. Additionally, as temperatures increase, the body size of many ectotherms is decreasing. However, phenological and body size shifts are not occurring at the same rates across species, even in species that live in close proximity or have similar life history. Differing rates of phenological and body-size shifts may affect ecological interactions. We investigated whether shifts in phenology and body size had a predictable effect on interspecific competition. We tested three hypotheses. First, priority effects would indicate early arriving organisms gain a competitive advantage. Second, larger organisms would be competitively superior. Third, similarly sized organisms would compete more strongly. We manipulated aquatic larval conditions to create variation in wood frog (Rana sylvatica) size at and date of metamorphosis. Wood frogs were placed in terrestrial enclosures with unmanipulated juvenile American toads (Anaxyrus americanus) where we tracked amphibian growth over 3 months. Consistent with the size superiority hypothesis, initially smaller wood frogs did not compete as strongly with toads. However, the results of the phenological shift were the opposite of our priority effects prediction: early arrival by frogs increased toad mass. Our results could indicate that toads would experience fewer negative effects of competition with wood frogs that metamorphose earlier and smaller under climate change. Our study highlights the challenges of predicting how climate change will affect interspecific interactions and emphasizes the need to investigate the role of shifts in both phenology and body size.

Ecological equivalency as a tool for endangered species management.

The use of taxon substitutes for extinct or endangered species is a controversial conservation measure. We use the example of the endangered California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense; CTS), which is being replaced by hybrids with the invasive barred tiger salamander (Ambystoma mavortium), to illustrate a strategy for evaluating taxon substitutes based on their position in a multivariate community space. Approximately one-quarter of CTS's range is currently occupied by "full hybrids" with 70% nonnative genes, while another one-quarter is occupied by "superinvasives" where a specific set of 3/68 genes comprising 4% of the surveyed genome is nonnative. Based on previous surveys of natural CTS breeding ponds, we stocked experimental mesocosms with field-verified, realistic densities of tiger salamander larvae and their prey, and used these mesocosms to evaluate ecological equivalency between pure CTS, full hybrids, and superinvasives in experimental pond communities. We also included a fourth treatment with no salamanders present to evaluate the community effects of eliminating Ambystoma larvae altogether. We found that pure CTS and superinvasive larvae were ecologically equivalent, because their positions in the multivariate community space were statistically indistinguishable and they did not differ significantly along any univariate community axes. Full hybrids were ecologically similar, but not equivalent, to the other two genotypes, and the no-Ambystoma treatment was by far the most divergent. We conclude that, at least for the larval stage, superinvasives are adequate taxon substitutes for pure CTS and should probably be afforded protection under the Endangered Species Act. The proper conservation status for full hybrids remains debatable.