Circulation of Respiratory Viruses in the City: Towards an Agent-Based Ecosystem model.

Mathematical models play an important role in management of outbreaks of acute respiratory infections (ARI). While such models are generally used to study the spread of a solitary virus, in reality multiple viruses co-circulate in the population. These viruses have been studied in detail, including the course of infection and immune defense mechanisms. We developed an agent-based model, called ABM-ARI, assimilating heterogeneous data and theoretical knowledge into a biologically motivated system, that allows to reproduce the seasonal patterns of ARI incidence and simulate interventions. ABM-ARI uses city-specific data to create a synthetic population and to construct realistic contact networks in different activity settings. Characteristics of infection, immune protection and non-specific resistance were varied between individuals to account for the population heterogeneity. For the calibration, we minimised the normalised mean absolute error between simulated and observed epidemic curves. ABM-ARI was built based on the quantitative assessment of features of predominant respiratory viruses and epidemiological characteristics of the population. It provides a good fit to the observed epidemic curves for different age groups and viruses. We also simulated one-week school closures when student absences were at or above 10%, 20% or 30% and found that only 10% and 20% thresholds resulted in a reduction of the incidence. ABM-ARI has a great potential in tackling the challenge of emerging infections by simulating and evaluating the effectiveness of various interventions.

Electron paramagnetic resonance dose measurements in teeth of tissue donors to the United States Transuranium and Uranium Registries.

The United States Transuranium and Uranium Registries (USTUR) is a research program that studies actinide biokinetics in occupationally exposed individuals with known intakes of these elements. Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) in tooth enamel was applied to reconstruct external doses of nine USTUR registrants. Only in two cases there is a reasonable agreement between the EPR-measured dose and the worksite external dose record. For two registrants, high EPR doses can be explained by possible cancer radiotherapy. For the remaining five cases, EPR doses significantly exceed official occupational doses with no plausible explanation for the observed discrepancy. More EPR dose measurements need to be done to explain this anomaly.

Agent-Based Simulation of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Russia.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a public health emergency in Russia and across the world. The wavelike spread of the new coronavirus infection, caused by newly emerging variants of the coronavirus, has led to a high incidence rate in all subjects of the Russian Federation. It is becoming extremely topical to get the opportunity to manage the development of the epidemic and assess the impact of certain regulatory measures on this process. This will help government agencies make informed decisions to control the burden on healthcare organizations. It is often impossible to obtain such assessments without using modern mathematical models.

Effect of Teflon Transmittance on Sensitivity of Thermoluminescence Dosimeter Cards.

Thermoluminescence dosimeter cards purchased by the US Navy in recent years have different radiation sensitivities, e.g., they exhibit a different amount of light per dose unit. Presented tests indicate that the optical transparency of the Teflon encapsulation is partially responsible for the significant variation of the DT-702/PD radiation sensitivity. It was confirmed also that the Teflon transparency is in fact a primary cause of the radiation sensitivity increase in the most recently produced dosimetric cards. This conclusion is based on the correlation found between the calibrated radiation sensitivity of the dosimeter card element and the optical transparency of its Teflon encapsulation. The transparency measurements were performed at the wavelength of 400 nm within a 10 nm spectral interval effectively covering the spectral range of the thermoluminescence. It is anticipated that the experimentally determined correlation will help to approve the acceptance of new thermoluminescence dosimeter cards in the Naval Dosimetry Center inventory as well as improve the production process.

Clinical application of MOSkin dosimeters to rectal wall in vivo dosimetry in gynecological HDR brachytherapy.

PURPOSE: Three MOSkins dosimeters were assembled over a rectal probe and used to perform in vivo dosimetry during HDR brachytherapy treatments of vaginal cancer. The purpose of this study was to verify the applicability of the developed tool to evaluate discrepancies between planned and measured doses to the rectal wall. MATERIALS AND METHODS: MOSkin dosimeters from the Centre for Medical Radiation Physics are particularly suitable for brachytherapy procedures for their ability to be easily incorporated into treatment instrumentation. In this study, 26 treatment sessions of HDR vaginal brachytherapy were monitored using three MOSkin mounted on a rectal probe. A total of 78 measurements were collected and compared to doses determined by the treatment planning system. RESULTS: Mean dose discrepancy was determined as 2.2±6.9%, with 44.6% of the measurements within ±5%, 89.2% within ±10% and 10.8% higher than ±10%. When dose discrepancies were grouped according to the time elapsed between imaging and treatment (i.e., group 1: ≤90min; group 2: >90min), mean discrepancies resulted in 4.7±3.6% and 7.1±5.0% for groups 1 and 2, respectively. Furthermore, the position of the dosimeter on the rectal catheter was found to affect uncertainty, where highest uncertainties were observed for the dosimeter furthest inside the rectum. CONCLUSIONS: This study has verified MOSkin applicability to in-patient dose monitoring in gynecological brachytherapy procedures, demonstrating the dosimetric rectal probe setup as an accurate and convenient IVD instrument for rectal wall dose verification. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that the delivered dose discrepancy may be affected by the duration of treatment planning.

An approach to estimating tuberculosis incidence and case detection rate from routine notification data.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate tuberculosis (TB) incidence and case detection rate (CDR) using routine TB surveillance data only. METHODS: A mathematical model of the case detection process, representing competition between disease progression and case finding, is proposed. The model describes disease progression as a two-stage process (bacillary and non-bacillary TB), and so relates the proportion of bacillary TB cases on detection to the effectiveness of detection. Thus, given the annual numbers of newly detected TB cases stratified by bacillary status, the model estimates detection rates, incidence and CDR. Routine notification data from eight provinces in Russia, 2000-2011, were used for the study. RESULTS: Subnational level estimates of incidence and CDR were obtained. Incidence estimates varied by two-fold among the provinces; corrected CDR estimates varied by 1.5 times. The trend in the incidence estimates was similar to that in the World Health Organization estimates for the whole of Russia. The change in the trend in WHO CDR estimates in 2008-2009 was not supported by our estimates. CONCLUSION: The general approach that uses multistage models of disease progression and accordingly stratified notification data can be applied in various settings for the routine estimation of incidence and CDR.

State of the art in nail dosimetry: free radicals identification and reaction mechanisms.

Until very recently, analysis of bone biopsies by means of the method of electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) collected after surgery or amputation has been considered as the sole reliable method for radiation dose assessment in hands and feet. EPR measurements in finger- and toenail have been considered for accident dosimetry for a long time. Human nails are very attractive biophysical materials because they are easy to collect and pertinent to whole body irradiation. Information on the existence of a radiation-induced signal in human nails has been reported almost 25 years ago. However, no practical application of EPR dosimetry on nails is known to date because, from an EPR perspective, nails represent a very complex material. In addition to the radiation-induced signal (RIS), parasitic and intense signals are induced by the mechanical stress caused when collecting nail samples (mechanically induced signals-MIS). Moreover, it has been demonstrated that the RIS stability is strongly influenced not only by temperature but also by humidity. Most studies of human nails were carried out using conventional X-band microwave band (9 GHz). Higher frequency Q-band (37 GHz) provides higher spectral resolution which allows obtaining more detailed information on the nature of different radicals in human nails. Here, we present for the first time a complete description of the different EPR signals identified in nails including parasitic, intrinsic and RIS. EPR in both X- and Q-bands was used. Four different MIS signals and five different signals specific to irradiation with ionizing radiation have been identified. The most important outcome of this work is the identification of a stable RIS component. In contrast with other identified (unstable) RIS components, this component is thermally and time stable and not affected by the physical contact of fingernails with water. A detailed description of this signal is provided here. The discovery of stable radiation-induced radical(s) associated with the RIS component mentioned opens a way for broad application of EPR dosimetry in human nails. Consequently, several recent dosimetry assessments of real accident cases have been performed based on the described measurements and analyses of this component.

The applicability of the PTTL dose re-analysis method to the Harshaw LiF:Mg,Cu,P material.

The phototransferred thermoluminescence (PTTL) technique is applied to the Harshaw LiF:Mg,Cu,P material. It is demonstrated that using 254-nm UV light, dose levels as low as 0.2 mGy can be re-estimated. The PTTL efficiency was found to be ∼ 6 % in the dose range of 0.2 mGy-1 Gy, and it appears to be dose-independent. This implies that a simple calibration factor could be applied to the PTTL data for the re-estimation of dose levels. It was demonstrated that with a proper choice of the TL readout parameters, and the UV-light irradiation conditions, dose levels that are relevant to personal or environmental dosimetry can be re-estimated.

Uncertainties associated with the use of optically stimulated luminescence in personal dosimetry.

This study investigates several sources of uncertainty associated with the application of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) to personal dosimetry. A commercial OSL system based on Al(2)O(3):C was used for this study. First, it is demonstrated that the concept of repeated evaluation (readout) of the same dosemeter, often referred to as 're-analysis', can introduce uncertainty in the re-estimated dose. This uncertainty is associated with the fact that the re-analysis process depletes some of the populated traps, resulting in a continuous decrease of the OSL signal with each repeated reading. Furthermore, the rate of depletion may be dose-dependent. Second, it is shown that the previously reported light-induced fading in this system is the result of light leaks through miniature openings in the dosemeter badge.

The origin of acute respiratory epidemics.

After studying the dependence of acute respiratory diseases of all etiologies on air temperature and population immunity dynamics, the authors proposed that the air temperature and the immunity level can affect disease resistance. Knowledge of the relationship between these factors must clarify the mechanisms that determine morbidity dynamics.

Intercomparison exercise within a distributed-dosimetry network.

The results of an intercomparison exercise within the US Navy dosimetric network (USN-DN) are presented and discussed. The USN-DN uses a commercially available LiF:Mg,Cu,P thermoluminescent dosemeter (TLD) model Harshaw 8840/8841 and TLD reader model Harshaw 8800 manufactured by Thermo Fisher Scientific. The USN-DN consists of a single calibration facility and 16 satellite dosimetry reading facilities throughout the world with ∼ 40 model 8800 TLD readers and in excess of 350 000 TLD cards in circulation. The Naval Dosimetry Center (NDC) is the primary calibration site responsible for the distribution and calibration of all TLD cards and their associated holders. In turn, each satellite facility is assigned a subpopulation of cards, which are utilised for servicing their local customers. Consistency of the NDC calibration of 150 dosemeters (calibrated at NDC) and 27 locally calibrated remote readers was evaluated in the framework of this intercomparison. Accuracy of TLDs' calibration, performed at the NDC, was found to be <3 % throughout the entire network. Accuracy of the readers' calibration, performed with the NDC issued calibration dosemeters at remote sites, was found to be better than 4 % for most readers. The worst performance was found for reader Channel 3, which is calibrated using the thinnest chip of the Harshaw 8840/8841 dosemeter. The loss of sensitivity of this chip may be caused by time-temperature profile that has been designed for all four chips without consideration of chip thickness.

Overview of physical and biophysical techniques for accident dosimetry.

From feedback experience from recent radiation accident cases, in addition to biological dosimetry and physical dosimetry based on Monte Carlo calculations or experimental means, there is a need for complementary methods of dosimetry for radiation accident. Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectrometry on bones or teeth is considered as efficient but is limited by the invasive character of the sampling. Since 2005, Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) develops some new approaches and methodologies based on the EPR and luminescence techniques. This article presents the overview of the different studies currently in progress in IRSN.

Long-term fade study of the DT-702 LiF: Mg,Cu,P TLD.

LiF thermoluminescent dosemeters (TLDs) are used by the US Navy to record radiation exposure of personnel. The Model DT-648 LiF:Mg,Ti TLD has been replaced by a new Model DT-702 LiF:Mg,Cu,P TLD. The DT-648 was used for many years and has undergone extensive testing to identify its pre- and post-irradiation fade operating characteristics. Studies have shown that the addition of copper increases the thermoluminesence sensitivity of the TLD for improved low-level radiation monitoring. This study evaluates various fading characteristics of the new copper-doped dosemeter using current equipment for processing of TLDs and calibrating to a National Institute of Standards and Technology standard source. The 57-week study took place at the Naval Dosimetry Center, Bethesda, MD, USA. TLDs were stored for various lengths of time before and after being exposed to a National Institute of Standards and Technology calibrated radiation sources. TLDs were then processed using current US Navy instructions and the resulting dose compared with the calibrated exposure. Both loss of signal and loss of sensitivity were evaluated. The results of this study have shown that the DT-702 TLD has no statistically significant change in sensitivity or change in signal with up to 57 weeks of pre- or post-irradiation time. The results of this study will increase the accuracy of exposure record keeping for the Navy and will allow longer issue periods. This will increase flexibility with international and domestic shipping procedures, as well as reduce workload requirements for dosimetry processing.

Electron paramagnetic resonance in human fingernails: the sponge model implication.

The most significant problem of electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) fingernail dosimetry is the presence of two signals of non-radiation origin that overlap the radiation-induced signal (RIS), making it almost impossible to perform dose measurements below 5 Gy. Historically, these two non-radiation components were named mechanically induced signal (MIS) and background signal (BKS). In order to investigate them in detail, three different methods of MIS and BKS mutual isolation have been developed and implemented. After applying these methods, it is shown here that fingernail tissue, after cut, can be modeled as a deformed sponge, where the MIS and BKS are associated with the stress from elastic and plastic deformations, respectively. A sponge has a unique mechanism of mechanical stress absorption, which is necessary for fingernails in order to perform its everyday function of protecting the fingertips from hits and trauma. Like a sponge, fingernails are also known to be an effective water absorber. When a sponge is saturated with water, it tends to restore to its original shape, and when it loses water, it becomes deformed again. The same happens to fingernail tissue. It is proposed that the MIS and BKS signals of mechanical origin be named MIS1 and MIS2 for MISs 1 and 2, respectively. Our suggested interpretation of the mechanical deformation in fingernails gives also a way to distinguish between the MIS and RIS. The results obtained show that the MIS in irradiated fingernails can be almost completely eliminated without a significant change to the RIS by soaking the sample for 10 min in water. The proposed method to measure porosity (the fraction of void space in spongy material) of the fingernails gave values of 0.46-0.48 for three of the studied samples. Existing results of fingernail dosimetry have been obtained on mechanically stressed samples and are not related to the "real" in vivo dosimetric properties of fingernails. A preliminary study of these properties of pre-soaked (unstressed) fingernails has demonstrated their significant difference from fingernails stressed by cut. They show a higher stability signal, a less intensive non-radiation component, and a nonlinear dose dependence. The findings in this study set the stage for understanding fingernail EPR dosimetry and doing in vivo measurements in the future.

Protocol for emergency EPR dosimetry in fingernails.

There is an increased need for after-the-fact dosimetry because of the high risk of radiation exposures due to terrorism or accidents. In case of such an event, a method is needed to make measurements of dose in a large number of individuals rapidly and with sufficient accuracy to facilitate effective medical triage. Dosimetry based on EPR measurements of fingernails potentially could be an effective tool for this purpose. This paper presents the first operational protocols for EPR fingernail dosimetry, including guidelines for collection and storage of samples, parameters for EPR measurements, and the method of dose assessment. In a blinded test of this protocol application was carried out on nails freshly sampled and irradiated to 4 and 20 Gy; this protocol gave dose estimates with an error of less than 30%.

EPR dosimetry in chemically treated fingernails.

By using EPR measurements of radiation-induced radicals it is possible to utilize human fingernails to estimate radiation dose after-the-fact. One of the potentially limiting factors in this approach is the presence of artifacts due to mechanically induced EPR signals (MIS) caused by mechanical stress during the collection and preparation of the samples and the so-called background (non-radiation) signal (BKS). The MIS and BKS have spectral parameters (shape, g-factor and linewidth) that overlap with the radiation-induced signal (RIS) and therefore, if not taken into account properly, could result in a considerable overestimation of the dose. We have investigated the use of different treatments of fingernails with chemical reagents to reduce the MIS and BKS. The most promising chemical treatment (20 min with 0.1 M dithiothreitol aqueous solution) reduced the contribution of MIS and BKS to the total intensity of EPR signal of irradiated fingernails by a factor of 10. This makes it potentially feasible to measure doses as low as 1 Gy almost immediately after irradiation. However, the chemical treatment reduces the intensity of the RIS and modifies dose dependence. This can be compensated by use of an appropriate calibration curve for assessment of dose. On the basis of obtained results it appears feasible to develop a field-deployable protocol that could use EPR measurements of samples of fingernails to assist in the triage of individuals with potential exposure to clinically significant doses of radiation.

Q-band EPR biodosimetry in tooth enamel microsamples: feasibility test and comparison with x-band.

A comparative study of electron paramagnetic resonance dosimetry in Q- and X-bands has shown that Q-band is able to provide accurate measurements of radiation doses even below 0.5 Gy with tooth enamel samples as small as 2 mg. The optimal amount of tooth enamel for dose measurements in Q-band was found to be 4 mg. This is less than 1% of the total amount of tooth enamel in one molar tooth. Such a small amount of tooth enamel can be harmlessly obtained in an emergency requiring after-the-fact radiation dose measurement. The other important advantage of Q-band is full resolution of the radiation-induced EPR signal from the native, background signal. This separation makes dose response measurements much easier in comparison to conventional X-band measurements in which these overlapping signals necessitate special methods for doses below 0.5 Gy. The main disadvantages of Q-band measurements are a higher level of noise and lower spectral reproducibility than in X-band. The effect of these negative factors on the precision of dose measurements in Q-band could probably be reduced by improvement of sample fixation in the resonance cavity and better optimization of signal filtration to reduce high-frequency noise.

Retrospective assessment of radiation exposure using biological dosimetry: chromosome painting, electron paramagnetic resonance and the glycophorin a mutation assay.

Biological monitoring of dose can contribute important, independent estimates of cumulative radiation exposure in epidemiological studies, especially in studies in which the physical dosimetry is lacking. Three biodosimeters that have been used in epidemiological studies to estimate past radiation exposure from external sources will be highlighted: chromosome painting or FISH (fluorescence in situ hybridization), the glycophorin A somatic mutation assay (GPA), and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) with teeth. All three biodosimeters have been applied to A-bomb survivors, Chernobyl clean-up workers, and radiation workers. Each biodosimeter has unique advantages and limitations depending upon the level and type of radiation exposure. Chromosome painting has been the most widely applied biodosimeter in epidemiological studies of past radiation exposure, and results of these studies provide evidence that dose-related translocations persist for decades. EPR tooth dosimetry has been used to validate dose models of acute and chronic radiation exposure, although the present requirement of extracted teeth has been a disadvantage. GPA has been correlated with physically based radiation dose after high-dose, acute exposures but not after low-dose, chronic exposures. Interindividual variability appears to be a limitation for both chromosome painting and GPA. Both of these techniques can be used to estimate the level of past radiation exposure to a population, whereas EPR can provide individual dose estimates of past exposure. This paper will review each of these three biodosimeters and compare their application in selected epidemiological studies.

The Third International Intercomparison on EPR Tooth Dosimetry: part 2, final analysis.

The objective of the Third International Intercomparison on EPR Tooth Dosimetry was to evaluate laboratories performing tooth enamel dosimetry <300 mGy. Final analysis of results included a correlation analysis between features of laboratory dose reconstruction protocols and dosimetry performance. Applicability of electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) tooth dosimetry at low dose was shown at two applied dose levels of 79 and 176 mGy. Most (9 of 12) laboratories reported the dose to be within 50 mGy of the delivered dose of 79 mGy, and 10 of 12 laboratories reported the dose to be within 100 mGy of the delivered dose of 176 mGy. At the high-dose tested (704 mGy) agreement within 25% of the delivered dose was found in 10 laboratories. Features of EPR dose reconstruction protocols that affect dosimetry performance were found to be magnetic field modulation amplitude in EPR spectrum recording, EPR signal model in spectrum deconvolution and duration of latency period for tooth enamel samples after preparation.

Comparison of EPR occupational lifetime external dose assessments for Mayak nuclear workers and film badge dose data.

The Mayak worker cohort is one of the major sources of information on health risks due to protracted exposures to plutonium and external ionizing radiation. Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) measurements in tooth enamel in combination with personal dose monitoring can help to improve external dose assessment for this cohort. Here, the occupational lifetime external exposure was evaluated individually for 44 nuclear workers of three plants of the Mayak Production Association by EPR measurements of absorbed doses in collected tooth enamel samples. Analysis included consideration of individual background doses in enamel and dose conversion coefficients specific for photon spectra at selected work areas. As a control, background doses were assessed for various age groups by EPR measurements on teeth from non-occupationally exposed Ozyorsk residents. Differences in occupational lifetime doses estimated from the film badges and from enamel for the Mayak workers were found to depend on the type of film badge and the selected plant. For those who worked at the radiochemical processing plant and who were monitored with IFK film badges, the dose was on average 570 mGy larger than estimated from the EPR measurements. However, the average difference was found to be only -4 and 6 mGy for those who were monitored with IFKU film badges and worked at the reactor and the isotope production plant respectively. The discrepancies observed in the dose estimates are attributed to a bias in film badge evaluation.