Investigating the characteristics and correlates of systemic inflammation after traumatic brain injury: the TBI-BraINFLAMM study.

INTRODUCTION: A significant environmental risk factor for neurodegenerative disease is traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, it is not clear how TBI results in ongoing chronic neurodegeneration. Animal studies show that systemic inflammation is signalled to the brain. This can result in sustained and aggressive microglial activation, which in turn is associated with widespread neurodegeneration. We aim to evaluate systemic inflammation as a mediator of ongoing neurodegeneration after TBI. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: TBI-braINFLAMM will combine data already collected from two large prospective TBI studies. The CREACTIVE study, a broad consortium which enrolled >8000 patients with TBI to have CT scans and blood samples in the hyperacute period, has data available from 854 patients. The BIO-AX-TBI study recruited 311 patients to have acute CT scans, longitudinal blood samples and longitudinal MRI brain scans. The BIO-AX-TBI study also has data from 102 healthy and 24 non-TBI trauma controls, comprising blood samples (both control groups) and MRI scans (healthy controls only). All blood samples from BIO-AX-TBI and CREACTIVE have already been tested for neuronal injury markers (GFAP, tau and NfL), and CREACTIVE blood samples have been tested for inflammatory cytokines. We will additionally test inflammatory cytokine levels from the already collected longitudinal blood samples in the BIO-AX-TBI study, as well as matched microdialysate and blood samples taken during the acute period from a subgroup of patients with TBI (n=18).We will use this unique dataset to characterise post-TBI systemic inflammation, and its relationships with injury severity and ongoing neurodegeneration. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval for this study has been granted by the London-Camberwell St Giles Research Ethics Committee (17/LO/2066). Results will be submitted for publication in peer-review journals, presented at conferences and inform the design of larger observational and experimental medicine studies assessing the role and management of post-TBI systemic inflammation.

MGP-AttTCN: An interpretable machine learning model for the prediction of sepsis.

With a mortality rate of 5.4 million lives worldwide every year and a healthcare cost of more than 16 billion dollars in the USA alone, sepsis is one of the leading causes of hospital mortality and an increasing concern in the ageing western world. Recently, medical and technological advances have helped re-define the illness criteria of this disease, which is otherwise poorly understood by the medical society. Together with the rise of widely accessible Electronic Health Records, the advances in data mining and complex nonlinear algorithms are a promising avenue for the early detection of sepsis. This work contributes to the research effort in the field of automated sepsis detection with an open-access labelling of the medical MIMIC-III data set. Moreover, we propose MGP-AttTCN: a joint multitask Gaussian Process and attention-based deep learning model to early predict the occurrence of sepsis in an interpretable manner. We show that our model outperforms the current state-of-the-art and present evidence that different labelling heuristics lead to discrepancies in task difficulty. For instance, when predicting sepsis five hours prior to onset on our new realistic labels, our proposed model achieves an area under the ROC curve of 0.660 and an area under the PR curve of 0.483, whereas the (less interpretable) previous state-of-the-art model (MGP-TCN) achieves 0.635 AUROC and 0.460 AUPR and the popular commercial InSight model achieves 0.490 AUROC and 0.359 AUPR.