CORONA (COre ultRasOund of covid in iNtensive care and Acute medicine) study: National service evaluation of lung and heart ultrasound in intensive care patients with suspected or proven COVID-19.

Background: Combined Lung Ultrasound (LUS) and Focused UltraSound for Intensive Care heart (FUSIC Heart - formerly Focused Intensive Care Echocardiography, FICE) can aid diagnosis, risk stratification and management in COVID-19. However, data on its application and results are limited to small studies in varying countries and hospitals. This United Kingdom (UK) national service evaluation study assessed how combined LUS and FUSIC Heart were used in COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients during the first wave of the pandemic. Method: Twelve trusts across the UK registered for this prospective study. LUS and FUSIC Heart data were obtained, using a standardised data set including scoring of abnormalities, between 1st February 2020 to 30th July 2020. The scans were performed by intensivists with FUSIC Lung and Heart competency as a minimum standard. Data was anonymised locally prior to transfer to a central database. Results: 372 studies were performed on 265 patients. There was a small but significant relationship between LUS score >8 and 30-day mortality (OR 1.8). Progression of score was associated with an increase in 30-day mortality (OR 1.2). 30-day mortality was increased in patients with right ventricular (RV) dysfunction (49.4% vs 29.2%). Severity of LUS score correlated with RV dysfunction (p < 0.05). Change in management occurred in 65% of patients following a combined scan. Conclusions: In COVID-19 patients, there is an association between lung ultrasound score severity, RV dysfunction and mortality identifiable by combined LUS and FUSIC Heart. The use of 12-point LUS scanning resulted in similar risk score to 6-point imaging in the majority of cases. Our findings suggest that serial combined LUS and FUSIC Heart on COVID-19 ICU patients may aid in clinical decision making and prognostication.

A systematic review of the burden of, access to services for and perceptions of patients with overweight and obesity, in humanitarian crisis settings.

INTRODUCTION: Excess body weight causes 4 million deaths annually across the world. The number of people affected by humanitarian crises stands at a record high level with 1 in 95 people being forcibly displaced. These epidemics overlap. Addressing obesity is a post-acute phase activity in non-communicable disease management in humanitarian settings. Information is needed to inform guidelines and timing of interventions. The objective of this review was to explore the prevalence of overweight and obesity in populations directly affected by humanitarian crises; the cascade of care in these populations and perceptions of patients with overweight and obesity. METHODS: Literature searches were carried out in five databases. Grey literature was identified. The population of interest was non-pregnant, civilian adults who had experience of humanitarian crises (armed conflict, complex emergencies and natural disasters). All study types published from January 1st, 2011, were included. Screening, data extraction and quality appraisal were carried out in duplicate. A narrative synthesis is presented. RESULTS: Fifty-six reports from forty-five studies were included. Prevalence estimates varied widely across the studies and by subgroups. Estimates of overweight and obesity combined ranged from 6.4% to 82.8%. Studies were heterogenous. Global distribution was skewed. Increasing adiposity was seen over time, in older adults and in women. Only six studies were at low risk of bias. Body mass index was the predominant measure used. There were no studies reporting cascade of care. No qualitative studies were identified. CONCLUSION: Overweight and obesity varied in crisis affected populations but were rarely absent. Improved reporting of existing data could provide more accurate estimates. Worsening obesity may be prevented by acting earlier in long-term crises and targeting risk groups. The use of waist circumference would provide useful additional information. Gaps remain in understanding the existing cascade of care. Cultural norms around diet and ideal body size vary.

Long-term impact of pre-incision antibiotics on children born by caesarean section: a longitudinal study based on UK electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Since changes in the national guidance in 2011, prophylactic antibiotics for women undergoing caesarean section are recommended prior to skin incision, rather than after the baby's umbilical cord has been clamped. Evidence from randomised controlled trials conducted outside the UK has shown that this reduces maternal infectious morbidity; however, the prophylactic antibiotics also cross the placenta, meaning that babies are exposed to them around the time of birth. Antibiotics are known to affect the gut microbiota of the babies, but the long-term effects of exposure to high-dose broad-spectrum antibiotics around the time of birth on allergy and immune-related diseases are unknown. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to examine whether or not in-utero exposure to antibiotics immediately prior to birth compared with no pre-incisional antibiotic exposure increases the risk of (1) asthma and (2) eczema in children born by caesarean section. DESIGN: This was a controlled interrupted time series study. SETTING: The study took place in primary and secondary care. PARTICIPANTS: Children born in the UK during 2006-18 delivered by caesarean section were compared with a control cohort delivered vaginally. INTERVENTIONS: In-utero exposure to antibiotics immediately prior to birth. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Asthma and eczema in children in the first 5 years of life. Additional secondary outcomes, including other allergy-related conditions, autoimmune diseases, infections, other immune system-related diseases and neurodevelopmental conditions, were also assessed. DATA SOURCES: The Health Improvement Network (THIN) and the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care databases and the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database. Previously published linkage strategies were adapted to link anonymised data on mothers and babies in these databases. Duplicate practices contributing to both THIN and the CPRD databases were removed to create a THIN-CPRD data set. RESULTS: In the THIN-CPRD and HES data sets, records of 515,945 and 3,945,351 mother-baby pairs were analysed, respectively. The risk of asthma was not significantly higher in children born by caesarean section exposed to pre-incision antibiotics than in children whose mothers received post-cord clamping antibiotics, with an incidence rate ratio of 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.05) for diagnosis of asthma in primary care and an incidence rate ratio of 1.05 (95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.11) for asthma resulting in a hospital admission. We also did not find an increased risk of eczema, with an incidence rate ratio of 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.94 to1.03) and an incidence rate ratio of 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 1.29) for diagnosis in primary care and hospital admissions, respectively. LIMITATIONS: It was not possible to ascertain the exposure to pre-incision antibiotics at an individual level. The maximum follow-up of children was 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence that the policy change from post-cord clamping to pre-incision prophylactic antibiotics for caesarean sections during 2006-18 had an impact on the incidence of asthma and eczema in early childhood in the UK. FUTURE WORK: There is a need for further research to investigate if pre-incision antibiotics have any impact on developing asthma and other allergy and immune-related conditions in older children. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as researchregistry3736. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 30. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

WHAT WAS THE QUESTION?: Women giving birth by caesarean section are at risk of developing infections (such as wound infections) and are offered antibiotics at the time of their operation to reduce this risk. In 2011, the national guidelines changed from recommending antibiotics after cord clamping to giving them before the operation to further reduce the risk of maternal infection. During birth, the newborn gut is colonised by microbes. Antibiotics given to the mother before caesarean section can reach the baby through the placenta and disrupt the normal microbes that colonise the gut. These microbes are believed to play a role in the development of the immune system and altering the normal development of these microbes has been linked to children developing allergic conditions, such as asthma and eczema. This study investigated whether or not giving antibiotics before the caesarean section had a longer-term impact on children's health. WHAT DID WE DO?: We used routine NHS information already collected by hospitals and general practitioners about women who gave birth in the UK between 2006 and 2018, and their children. We compared the risk of asthma, eczema and other health conditions in the first 5 years after birth in children born by caesarean section before and after the change in hospital policies. We also compared their health with children born vaginally. WHAT DID WE FIND?: We found that there was no increased risk of asthma or eczema for children born by caesarean section after the policy decision in 2011 to give the mother antibiotics before the operation. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?: The study findings provide further evidence for the current recommendation to give preventative antibiotics to women shortly before the caesarean section to reduce the overall risk of infections after birth.

Long term impact of prophylactic antibiotic use before incision versus after cord clamping on children born by caesarean section: longitudinal study of UK electronic health records.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact on child health up to age 5 years of a policy to use antibiotic prophylaxis for caesarean section before incision compared with after cord clamping. DESIGN: Observational controlled interrupted time series study. SETTING: UK primary and secondary care. PARTICIPANTS: 515 945 children born in 2006-18 with linked maternal records and registered with general practices contributing to two UK primary care databases (The Health Improvement Network and Clinical Practice Research Datalink), and 7 147 884 children with linked maternal records in the Hospital Episode Statistics database covering England, of which 3 945 351 were linked to hospitals that reported the year of policy change to administer prophylactic antibiotics for caesarean section before incision rather than after cord clamping. INTERVENTION: Fetal exposure to antibiotics shortly before birth (using pre-incision antibiotic policy as proxy) compared with no exposure. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcomes were incidence rate ratios of asthma and eczema in children born by caesarean section when pre-incision prophylactic antibiotics were recommended compared with those born when antibiotics were administered post-cord clamping, adjusted for temporal changes in the incidence rates in children born vaginally. RESULTS: Prophylactic antibiotics administered before incision for caesarean section compared with after cord clamping were not associated with a significantly higher risk of asthma (incidence rate ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.05) or eczema (0.98, 0.94 to 1.03), including asthma and eczema resulting in hospital admission (1.05, 0.99 to 1.11 and 0.96, 0.71 to 1.29, respectively), up to age 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: This study found no evidence of an association between pre-incision prophylactic antibiotic use and risk of asthma and eczema in early childhood in children born by caesarean section.

Exploration of the uptake of asymptomatic COVID-19 lateral flow testing in Birmingham, UK: survey and qualitative research.

AIM: To examine public perspectives on lateral flow testing (LFT) for COVID-19. DESIGN: Online survey with nested semi-structured interviews. SETTING: Birmingham, UK. PARTICIPANTS: 220 Birmingham residents, 21 of whom took part in an interview. RESULTS: Fifty-six per cent of respondents had taken an LFT. Reasons for not testing included adherence to other government COVID-19 guidance, having had a vaccination and not thinking LFTs were accurate. In 16% of households with children nobody, including children, was testing. In households where children were testing, their parents or other adults were often not. Those who were testing and eligible for workplace and school testing were more likely to be testing twice weekly. In other settings, respondents were more likely to be testing on a one-off or ad hoc basis. Approximately half of respondents said that they were likely to visit friends and family after a negative test result and 10% that they were unlikely to self-isolate following a positive test result. In interviews, participants who were testing described the peace of mind that testing afforded them prior to activities or interactions with family and friends, including those they considered to be vulnerable. Interviewees who were not testing described concerns about test accuracy and also cited a lack of face-to-face interaction with others precluding the need to test. Participants were often testing flexibly according to circumstances and perceived risk of COVID-19 transmission. CONCLUSIONS: While some choose not to test, others are doing so in order to provide peace of mind to engage in personal interactions they might otherwise have avoided. This peace of mind may be a necessary pre-requisite for some to more fully re-engage in pre-pandemic activities. Despite clear concerns about test accuracy among those not testing, those who are testing held generally positive attitudes towards the continued use of LFTs.

30-Day Morbidity and Mortality of Bariatric Surgery During the COVID-19 Pandemic: a Multinational Cohort Study of 7704 Patients from 42 Countries.

BACKGROUND: There are data on the safety of cancer surgery and the efficacy of preventive strategies on the prevention of postoperative symptomatic COVID-19 in these patients. But there is little such data for any elective surgery. The main objectives of this study were to examine the safety of bariatric surgery (BS) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and to determine the efficacy of perioperative COVID-19 protective strategies on postoperative symptomatic COVID-19 rates. METHODS: We conducted an international cohort study to determine all-cause and COVID-19-specific 30-day morbidity and mortality of BS performed between 01/05/2020 and 31/10/2020. RESULTS: Four hundred ninety-nine surgeons from 185 centres in 42 countries provided data on 7704 patients. Elective primary BS (n = 7084) was associated with a 30-day morbidity of 6.76% (n = 479) and a 30-day mortality of 0.14% (n = 10). Emergency BS, revisional BS, insulin-treated type 2 diabetes, and untreated obstructive sleep apnoea were associated with increased complications on multivariable analysis. Forty-three patients developed symptomatic COVID-19 postoperatively, with a higher risk in non-whites. Preoperative self-isolation, preoperative testing for SARS-CoV-2, and surgery in institutions not concurrently treating COVID-19 patients did not reduce the incidence of postoperative COVID-19. Postoperative symptomatic COVID-19 was more likely if the surgery was performed during a COVID-19 peak in that country. CONCLUSIONS: BS can be performed safely during the COVID-19 pandemic with appropriate perioperative protocols. There was no relationship between preoperative testing for COVID-19 and self-isolation with symptomatic postoperative COVID-19. The risk of postoperative COVID-19 risk was greater in non-whites or if BS was performed during a local peak.

Changes in weekend and weekday care quality of emergency medical admissions to 20 hospitals in England during implementation of the 7-day services national health policy.

BACKGROUND: In 2013, the English National Health Service launched the policy of 7-day services to improve care quality and outcomes for weekend emergency admissions. AIMS: To determine whether the quality of care of emergency medical admissions is worse at weekends, and whether this has changed during implementation of 7-day services. METHODS: Using data from 20 acute hospital Trusts in England, we performed randomly selected structured case record reviews of patients admitted to hospital as emergencies at weekends and on weekdays between financial years 2012-2013 and 2016-2017. Senior doctor ('specialist') involvement was determined from annual point prevalence surveys. The primary outcome was the rate of clinical errors. Secondary outcomes included error-related adverse event rates, global quality of care and four indicators of good practice. RESULTS: Seventy-nine clinical reviewers reviewed 4000 admissions, 800 in duplicate. Errors, adverse events and care quality were not significantly different between weekend and weekday admissions, but all improved significantly between epochs, particularly errors most likely influenced by doctors (clinical assessment, diagnosis, treatment, prescribing and communication): error rate OR 0.78; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.87; adverse event OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.69; care quality OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.87; all adjusted for age, sex and ethnicity. Postadmission in-hospital care processes improved between epochs and were better for weekend admissions (vital signs with National Early Warning Score and timely specialist review). Preadmission processes in the community were suboptimal at weekends and deteriorated between epochs (fewer family doctor referrals, more patients with chronic disease or palliative care designation). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Hospital care quality of emergency medical admissions is not worse at weekends and has improved during implementation of the 7-day services policy. Causal pathways for the weekend effect may extend into the prehospital setting.

Walkability and its association with walking/cycling and body mass index among adults in different regions of Germany: a cross-sectional analysis of pooled data from five German cohorts.

OBJECTIVES: To examine three walkability measures (points of interest (POI), transit stations and impedance (restrictions to walking) within 640 m of participant's addresses) in different regions in Germany and assess the relationships between walkability, walking/cycling and body mass index (BMI) using generalised additive models. SETTING: Five different regions and cities of Germany using data from five cohort studies. PARTICIPANTS: For analysing walking/cycling behaviour, there were 6269 participants of a pooled sample from three cohorts with a mean age of 59.2 years (SD: 14.3) and of them 48.9% were male. For analysing BMI, there were 9441 participants of a pooled sample of five cohorts with a mean age of 62.3 years (SD: 12.8) and of them 48.5% were male. OUTCOMES: (1) Self-reported walking/cycling (dichotomised into more than 30 min and 30 min and less per day; (2) BMI calculated with anthropological measures from weight and height. RESULTS: Higher impedance was associated with lower prevalence of walking/cycling more than 30 min/day (prevalence ratio (PR): 0.95; 95% CI 0.93 to 0.97), while higher number of POI and transit stations were associated with higher prevalence (PR 1.03; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.05 for both measures). Higher impedance was associated with higher BMI (ß: 0.15; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.25) and a higher number of POI with lower BMI (ß: -0.14; 95% CI -0.24 to 0.04). No association was found between transit stations and BMI (ß: 0.005, 95% CI -0.11 to 0.12). Stratified by cohort we observed heterogeneous associations between BMI and transit stations and impedance. CONCLUSION: We found evidence for associations of walking/cycling with walkability measures. Associations for BMI differed across cohorts.

Comorbidity phenotypes and risk of mortality in patients with ischaemic heart disease in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to use latent class analysis of up to 20 comorbidities in patients with a diagnosis of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) to identify clusters of comorbidities and to examine the associations between these clusters and mortality. METHODS: Longitudinal analysis of electronic health records in the health improvement network (THIN), a UK primary care database including 92 186 men and women aged ≥18 years with IHD and a median of 2 (IQR 1-3) comorbidities. RESULTS: Latent class analysis revealed five clusters with half categorised as a low-burden comorbidity group. After a median follow-up of 3.2 (IQR 1.4-5.8) years, 17 645 patients died. Compared with the low-burden comorbidity group, two groups of patients with a high-burden of comorbidities had the highest adjusted HR for mortality: those with vascular and musculoskeletal conditions, HR 2.38 (95% CI 2.28 to 2.49) and those with respiratory and musculoskeletal conditions, HR 2.62 (95% CI 2.45 to 2.79). Hazards of mortality in two other groups of patients characterised by cardiometabolic and mental health comorbidities were also higher than the low-burden comorbidity group; HR 1.46 (95% CI 1.39 to 1.52) and 1.55 (95% CI 1.46 to 1.64), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis has identified five distinct comorbidity clusters in patients with IHD that were differentially associated with risk of mortality. These analyses should be replicated in other large datasets, and this may help shape the development of future interventions or health services that take into account the impact of these comorbidity clusters.

Walkability and its association with prevalent and incident diabetes among adults in different regions of Germany: results of pooled data from five German cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Highly walkable neighbourhoods may increase transport-related and leisure-time physical activity and thus decrease the risk for obesity and obesity-related diseases, such as type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS: We investigated the association between walkability and prevalent/incident T2D in a pooled sample from five German cohorts. Three walkability measures were assigned to participant's addresses: number of transit stations, points of interest, and impedance (restrictions to walking due to absence of intersections and physical barriers) within 640 m. We estimated associations between walkability and prevalent/incident T2D with modified Poisson regressions and adjusted for education, sex, age at baseline, and cohort. RESULTS: Of the baseline 16,008 participants, 1256 participants had prevalent T2D. Participants free from T2D at baseline were followed over a mean of 9.2 years (SD: 3.5, minimum: 1.6, maximum: 14.8 years). Of these, 1032 participants developed T2D. The three walkability measures were not associated with T2D. The estimates pointed toward a zero effect or were within 7% relative risk increase per 1 standard deviation with 95% confidence intervals including 1. CONCLUSION: In the studied German settings, walkability differences might not explain differences in T2D.

Long-term impact of giving antibiotics before skin incision versus after cord clamping on children born by caesarean section: protocol for a longitudinal study based on UK electronic health records.

INTRODUCTION: In the UK, about a quarter of women give birth by caesarean section (CS) and are offered prophylactic broad-spectrum antibiotics to reduce the risk of maternal postpartum infection. In 2011, national guidance was changed from recommending antibiotics after the umbilical cord was cut to giving antibiotics prior to skin incision based on evidence that earlier administration reduces maternal infectious morbidity. Although antibiotics cross the placenta, there are no known short-term harms to the baby. This study aims to address the research gap on longer term impact of these antibiotics on child health. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A controlled interrupted time series study will use anonymised mother-baby linked routine electronic health records for children born during 2006-2018 recorded in UK primary care (The Health Improvement Network, THIN and Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD) and secondary care (Hospital Episode Statistics, HES) databases. The primary outcomes of interest are asthma and eczema, two common allergy-related diseases in childhood. In-utero exposure to antibiotics immediately prior to CS will be compared with no exposure when given after cord clamping. The risk of outcomes in children delivered by CS will also be compared with a control cohort delivered vaginally to account for time effects. We will use all available data from THIN, CPRD and HES with estimated power of 80% and 90% to detect relative increase in risk of asthma of 16% and 18%, respectively at the 5% significance level. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained from the University of Birmingham Ethical Review Committee with scientific approvals obtained from the independent scientific advisory committees from the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency for CPRD and the data provider, IQVIA for THIN. The results will be published in peer-reviewed journals, presented at national and international conferences and disseminated to stakeholders.

Sicker patients account for the weekend mortality effect among adult emergency admissions to a large hospital trust.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the higher weekend admission mortality risk is attributable to increased severity of illness. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of 4 years weekend and weekday adult emergency admissions to a university teaching hospital in England. OUTCOME MEASURES: 30-day postadmission weekend:weekday mortality ratios adjusted for severity of illness (baseline National Early Warning Score (NEWS)), routes of admission to hospital, transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU) and demographics. RESULTS: Despite similar emergency department daily attendance rates, fewer patients were admitted on weekends (mean admission rate 91/day vs 120/day) because of fewer general practitioner referrals. Weekend admissions were sicker than weekday (mean NEWS 1.8 vs 1.7, p=0.008), more likely to undergo transfer to ICU within 24 hours (4.2% vs 3.0%), spent longer in hospital (median 3 days vs 2 days) and less likely to experience same-day discharge (17.2% vs 21.9%) (all p values <0.001).The crude 30-day postadmission mortality ratio for weekend admission (OR=1.13; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.19) was attenuated using standard adjustment (OR=1.11; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.17). In patients for whom NEWS values were available (90%), the crude OR (1.07; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.13) was not affected with standard adjustment. Adjustment using NEWS alone nullified the weekend effect (OR=1.02; 0.96-1.08).NEWS completion rates were higher on weekends (91.7%) than weekdays (89.5%). Missing NEWS was associated with direct transfer to intensive care bypassing electronic data capture. Missing NEWS in non-ICU weekend patients was associated with a higher mortality and fewer same-day discharges than weekdays. CONCLUSIONS: Patients admitted to hospital on weekends are sicker than those admitted on weekdays. The cause of the weekend effect may lie in community services.

Hospitalisation after birth of infants: cross sectional analysis of potentially avoidable admissions across England using hospital episode statistics.

BACKGROUND: Admissions of infants in England have increased substantially but there is little evidence whether this is across the first year or predominately in neonates; and for all or for specific causes. We aimed to characterise this increase, especially those admissions that may be avoidable in the context of postnatal care provision. METHODS: A cross sectional analysis of 1,387,677 infants up to age one admitted to English hospitals between April 2008 and April 2014 using Hospital Episode Statistics and live birth denominators for England from Office for National Statistics. Potentially avoidable conditions were defined through a staged process with a panel. RESULTS: The rate of hospital admission in the first year of life for physiological jaundice, feeding difficulties and gastroenteritis, the three conditions identified as potentially preventable in the context of postnatal care provision, increased by 39% (39.55 to 55.33 per 1000 live births) relative to an overall increase of 6% (334.97 to 354.55 per 1000 live births). Over the first year the biggest increase in admissions occurred in the first 0-6 days (RR 1.26, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.29) and 85% of the increase (12.36 to 18.23 per 1000 live births) in this period was for the three potentially preventable conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the increase in infant hospital admissions was in the early neonatal period, the great majority being accounted for by three potentially avoidable conditions especially jaundice and feeding difficulties. This may indicate missed opportunities within the postnatal care pathway and given the enormous NHS cost and parental distress from hospital admission of infants, requires urgent attention.

Two-epoch cross-sectional case record review protocol comparing quality of care of hospital emergency admissions at weekends versus weekdays.

INTRODUCTION: The mortality associated with weekend admission to hospital (the 'weekend effect') has for many years been attributed to deficiencies in quality of hospital care, often assumed to be due to suboptimal senior medical staffing at weekends. This protocol describes a case note review to determine whether there are differences in care quality for emergency admissions (EAs) to hospital at weekends compared with weekdays, and whether the difference has reduced over time as health policies have changed to promote 7-day services. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Cross-sectional two-epoch case record review of 20 acute hospital Trusts in England. Anonymised case records of 4000 EAs to hospital, 2000 at weekends and 2000 on weekdays, covering two epochs (financial years 2012-2013 and 2016-2017). Admissions will be randomly selected across the whole of each epoch from Trust electronic patient records. Following training, structured implicit case reviews will be conducted by consultants or senior registrars (senior residents) in acute medical specialities (60 case records per reviewer), and limited to the first 7 days following hospital admission. The co-primary outcomes are the weekend:weekday admission ratio of errors per case record, and a global assessment of care quality on a Likert scale. Error rates will be analysed using mixed effects logistic regression models, and care quality using ordinal regression methods. Secondary outcomes include error typology, error-related adverse events and any correlation between error rates and staffing. The data will also be used to inform a parallel health economics analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The project has received ethics approval from the South West Wales Research Ethics Committee (REC): reference 13/WA/0372. Informed consent is not required for accessing anonymised patient case records from which patient identifiers had been removed. The findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications in high-quality journals and through local High-intensity Specialist-Led Acute Care (HiSLAC) leads at the 121 hospitals that make up the HiSLAC Collaborative.

Influence of social deprivation on provision of bariatric surgery: 10-year comparative ecological study between two UK specialist centres.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of residential location and socioeconomic deprivation on the provision of bariatric surgery. DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional ecological study. SETTING: Patients resident local to one of two specialist bariatric units, in different regions of the UK, who received obesity surgery between 2003 and 2013. METHODS: Demographic data were collected from prospectively collected databases. Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD 2010) was used as a measure of socioeconomic status. Obesity prevalences were obtained from Public Health England (2006). Patients were split into three IMD tertiles (high, median, low) and also tertiles of time. A generalised linear model was generated for each time period to investigate the effect of socioeconomic deprivation on the relationship between bariatric case count and prevalence of obesity. We used these to estimate surgical intervention provided in each population in each period at differing levels of deprivation. RESULTS: Data were included from 1163 bariatric cases (centre 1-414, centre 2-749). Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated to measure the associations between predictor and response variables. Associations were highly non-linear and changed over the 10-year study period. In general, the relationship between surgical case volume and obesity prevalence has weakened over time, with high volumes becoming less associated with prevalence of obesity. DISCUSSION: As bariatric services have matured, the associations between demand and supply factors have changed. Socioeconomic deprivation is not apparently a barrier to service provision more recently, but the positive relationships between obesity and surgical volume we would expect to find are absent. This suggests that interventions are not being taken up in the areas of need. We recommend a more detailed national analysis of the relationship between supply side and demand side factors in the provision of bariatric surgery.

Weekend specialist intensity and admission mortality in acute hospital trusts in England: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Increased mortality rates associated with weekend hospital admission (the so-called weekend effect) have been attributed to suboptimum staffing levels of specialist consultants. However, evidence for a causal association is elusive, and the magnitude of the weekend specialist deficit remains unquantified. This uncertainty could hamper efforts by national health systems to introduce 7 day health services. We aimed to examine preliminary associations between specialist intensity and weekend admission mortality across the English National Health Service. METHODS: Eligible hospital trusts were those in England receiving unselected emergency admissions. On Sunday June 15 and Wednesday June 18, 2014, we undertook a point prevalence survey of hospital specialists (consultants) to obtain data relating to the care of patients admitted as emergencies. We defined specialist intensity at each trust as the self-reported estimated number of specialist hours per ten emergency admissions between 0800 h and 2000 h on Sunday and Wednesday. With use of data for all adult emergency admissions for financial year 2013-14, we compared weekend to weekday admission risk of mortality with the Sunday to Wednesday specialist intensity ratio within each trust. We stratified trusts by size quintile. FINDINGS: 127 of 141 eligible acute hospital trusts agreed to participate; 115 (91%) trusts contributed data to the point prevalence survey. Of 34,350 clinicians surveyed, 15,537 (45%) responded. Substantially fewer specialists were present providing care to emergency admissions on Sunday (1667 [11%]) than on Wednesday (6105 [42%]). Specialists present on Sunday spent 40% more time caring for emergency patients than did those present on Wednesday (mean 5·74 h [SD 3·39] vs 3·97 h [3·31]); however, the median specialist intensity on Sunday was only 48% (IQR 40-58) of that on Wednesday. The Sunday to Wednesday intensity ratio was less than 0·7 in 104 (90%) of the contributing trusts. Mortality risk among patients admitted at weekends was higher than among those admitted on weekdays (adjusted odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·08-1·11; p<0·0001). There was no significant association between Sunday to Wednesday specialist intensity ratios and weekend to weekday mortality ratios (r -0·042; p=0·654). INTERPRETATION: This cross-sectional analysis did not detect a correlation between weekend staffing of hospital specialists and mortality risk for emergency admissions. Further investigation is needed to evaluate whole-system secular change during the implementation of 7 day services. Policy makers should exercise caution before attributing the weekend effect mainly to differences in specialist staffing. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme.

The combined influence of distance and neighbourhood deprivation on Emergency Department attendance in a large English population: a retrospective database study.

The frequency of visits to Emergency Departments (ED) varies greatly between populations. This may reflect variation in patient behaviour, need, accessibility, and service configuration as well as the complex interactions between these factors. This study investigates the relationship between distance, socio-economic deprivation, and proximity to an alternative care setting (a Minor Injuries Unit (MIU)), with particular attention to the interaction between distance and deprivation. It is set in a population of approximately 5.4 million living in central England, which is highly heterogeneous in terms of ethnicity, socio-economics, and distance to hospital. The study data set captured 1,413,363 ED visits made by residents of the region to National Health Service (NHS) hospitals during the financial year 2007/8. Our units of analysis were small units of census geography having an average population of 1,545. Separate regression models were made for children and adults. For each additional kilometre of distance from a hospital, predicted child attendances fell by 2.2% (1.7%-2.6% p<0.001) and predicted adult attendances fell by 1.5% (1.2% -1.8%, p<0.001). Compared to the least deprived quintile, attendances in the most deprived quintile more than doubled for children (incident rate ratio (IRR) = 2.19, (1.90-2.54, p<0.001)) and adults (IRR 2.26, (2.01-2.55, p<0.001)). Proximity of an MIU was significant and both adult and child attendances were greater in populations who lived further away from them, suggesting that MIUs may reduce ED demand. The interaction between distance and deprivation was significant. Attendance in deprived neighbourhoods reduces with distance to a greater degree than in less deprived ones for both adults and children. In conclusion, ED use is related to both deprivation and distance, but the effect of distance is modified by deprivation.

Index blood tests and national early warning scores within 24 hours of emergency admission can predict the risk of in-hospital mortality: a model development and validation study.

BACKGROUND: We explored the use of routine blood tests and national early warning scores (NEWS) reported within ±24 hours of admission to predict in-hospital mortality in emergency admissions, using empirical decision Tree models because they are intuitive and may ultimately be used to support clinical decision making. METHODOLOGY: A retrospective analysis of adult emergency admissions to a large acute hospital during April 2009 to March 2010 in the West Midlands, England, with a full set of index blood tests results (albumin, creatinine, haemoglobin, potassium, sodium, urea, white cell count and an index NEWS undertaken within ±24 hours of admission). We developed a Tree model by randomly splitting the admissions into a training (50%) and validation dataset (50%) and assessed its accuracy using the concordance (c-) statistic. Emergency admissions (about 30%) did not have a full set of index blood tests and/or NEWS and so were not included in our analysis. RESULTS: There were 23248 emergency admissions with a full set of blood tests and NEWS with an in-hospital mortality of 5.69%. The Tree model identified age, NEWS, albumin, sodium, white cell count and urea as significant (p<0.001) predictors of death, which described 17 homogeneous subgroups of admissions with mortality ranging from 0.2% to 60%. The c-statistic for the training model was 0.864 (95%CI 0.852 to 0.87) and when applied to the testing data set this was 0.853 (95%CI 0.840 to 0.866). CONCLUSIONS: An easy to interpret validated risk adjustment Tree model using blood test and NEWS taken within ±24 hours of admission provides good discrimination and offers a novel approach to risk adjustment which may potentially support clinical decision making. Given the nature of the clinical data, the results are likely to be generalisable but further research is required to investigate this promising approach.

Which is more useful in predicting hospital mortality--dichotomised blood test results or actual test values? A retrospective study in two hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Routine blood tests are an integral part of clinical medicine and in interpreting blood test results clinicians have two broad options. (1) Dichotomise the blood tests into normal/abnormal or (2) use the actual values and overlook the reference values. We refer to these as the "binary" and the "non-binary" strategy respectively. We investigate which strategy is better at predicting the risk of death in hospital based on seven routinely undertaken blood tests (albumin, creatinine, haemoglobin, potassium, sodium, urea, and white blood cell count) using tree models to implement the two strategies. METHODOLOGY: A retrospective database study of emergency admissions to an acute hospital during April 2009 to March 2010, involving 10,050 emergency admissions with routine blood tests undertaken within 24 hours of admission. We compared the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve for predicting in-hospital mortality using the binary and non-binary strategy. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 6.98% (701/10050). The mean predicted risk of death in those who died was significantly (p-value <0.0001) lower using the binary strategy (risk = 0.181 95%CI: 0.193 to 0.210) versus the non-binary strategy (risk = 0.222 95%CI: 0.194 to 0.251), representing a risk difference of 28.74 deaths in the deceased patients (n = 701). The binary strategy had a significantly (p-value <0.0001) lower area under the ROC curve of 0.832 (95% CI: 0.819 to 0.845) versus the non-binary strategy (0.853 95% CI: 0.840 to 0.867). Similar results were obtained using data from another hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Dichotomising routine blood test results is less accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality than using actual test values because it underestimates the risk of death in patients who died. Further research into the use of actual blood test values in clinical decision making is required especially as the infrastructure to implement this potentially promising strategy already exists in most hospitals.