Which indices of heart rate variability are the best predictors of mortality after acute myocardial infarction? Meta-analysis of observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is the first cause of death globally with myocardial infarction as the main event. Heart rate variability (HRV) has been associated with an increased risk of mortality post-myocardial infarction. However, which indices of heart rate variability are the best predictors for total and cardiac mortality post-myocardial infarction remains unclear. We performed a systematic review to evaluate this association. METHODS AND RESULTS: PubMed, Google Scholar, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched for studies with HRV as a predictive mortality marker. Two authors independently selected papers and extracted data and disagreements were solved with a third author. HRV indices included were SDNN, SDANN, HRV index, Total power, RMSSD, LF, HF, ULF, VLF, and LF/HF. For these clinical and statistical heterogeneity was assessed, forest and funnel plot graphs were made and sensitivity analysis, cumulative and regression meta-analysis were performed. Stata 16 was used for statistical analysis. Out of 19.960 articles found, 332 were initially selected for abstract screening and 27 finally fulfilled the criteria and allowed the extraction of data. After a sensitivity analysis, low values of SDNN, HRV index, ULF, VLF, Total Power, LF, LF/HF ratio and HF showed a statistically significant association with cardiac mortality, but SDNN index had the highest association (RR 4.19, CI95% 3.36-5.22, I2 39.7%). For total mortality, HRV index, VLF, ULF, LF, Total power, SDNNN, LF/HF ratio, HF were significantly associated, but HRV index was the index with highest association, (RR 3.60, CI95% 2.30-5.64, I2 27.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Based on a sensitivity analysis, the best index associated with cardiac mortality post-myocardial infarction is low values of SDNN and for total mortality is low values of HRV index.

Thoracic Aortic Diameter and Cardiovascular Events and Mortality among Women and Men.

Background Thoracic aortic diameter may have a role as a biomarker for major adverse cardiovascular events. Purpose To evaluate the sex-specific association of the diameters of the ascending (AA) and descending (DA) thoracic aorta with risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Materials and Methods Study participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study who underwent multidetector-row CT between 2003 and 2006 were evaluated. Cox proportional hazard models were conducted to evaluate the associations of AA and DA diameters indexed and not indexed for body mass index (BMI) with cardiovascular events and mortality for men and women. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated per 1-unit greater SD of aortic diameters. Results A total of 2178 participants (mean age, 69 years; 55% women) were included. Mean follow-up was 9 years. Each 0.23-mm/(kg/m2) larger BMI-indexed AA diameter was associated with a 33% higher cardiovascular mortality risk in women (HR, 1.33; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.73). Each 0.16-mm/(kg/m2) larger BMI-indexed DA diameter was associated with a 38% higher risk of stroke (HR, 1.38; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.78) and with a 46% greater risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.46; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.94) in women. Larger BMI-indexed AA and DA diameters were associated with greater risk of all-cause mortality in both sexes. Conclusion Larger ascending and descending thoracic aortic diameters indexed by body mass index were associated with greater risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in women and men. Clinical trial registration no. NTR6831 © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Williams in this issue.

Longitudinal strain by speckle tracking and echocardiographic parameters as predictors of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy.

To analyze the prognostic value of left ventricular global longitudinal strain (LV-GLS) and other echocardiographic parameters to predict adverse outcomes in chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCM). Prospective cohort study conducted in 177 consecutive patients with different CCM stages. Transthoracic echocardiography measurements were obtained following the American Society of Echocardiography recommendations. By speckle-tracking echocardiography, LV-GLS was obtained from the apical three-chamber, apical two-chamber, and apical four-chamber views. The primary composite outcome (CO) was all-cause mortality, cardiac transplantation, and a left ventricular assist device implantation. After a median follow-up of 42.3 months (Q1 = 38.6; Q3 = 52.1), the CO incidence was 22.6% (95% CI 16.7-29.5%, n = 40). The median LV-GLS value was - 13.6% (Q1 = - 18.6%; Q3 = - 8.5%). LVEF, LV-GLS, and E/e' ratio with cut-off points of 40%, - 9, and 8.1, respectively, were the best independent CO predictors. We combined these three echocardiographic markers and evaluated the risk of CO according to the number of altered parameters, finding a significant increase in the risk across the groups. While in the group of patients in which all these three parameters were normal, only 3.2% had the CO; those with all three abnormal parameters had an incidence of 60%. We observed a potential incremental prognostic value of LV-GLS in the multivariate model of LVEF and E/e' ratio, as the AUC increased slightly from 0.76 to 0.79, nevertheless, this difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.066). LV-GLS is an important predictor of adverse cardiovascular events in CCM, providing a potential incremental prognostic value to LVEF and E/e' ratio when analyzed using optimal cut-off points, highlighting the potential utility of multimodal echocardiographic tools for predicting adverse outcomes in CCM.

Cardiovascular biomarkers as predictors of adverse outcomes in chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Chronic Chagas Cardiomyopathy (CCM) is a unique form of cardiomyopathy compared to other etiologies of heart failure. In CCM, risk prediction based on biomarkers has not been well-studied. We assessed the prognostic value of a biomarker panel to predict a composite outcome (CO), including the need for heart transplantation, use of left ventricular assist devices, and mortality. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 100 adults with different stages of CCM. Serum concentrations of amino-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), galectin-3 (Gal-3), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), high sensitivity troponin T (hs-cTnT), soluble (sST2), and cystatin-C (Cys-c) were measured. Survival analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 52 months, the mortality rate was 20%, while the CO was observed in 25% of the patients. Four biomarkers (NT-proBNP, hs-cTnT, sST2, and Cys-C) were associated with the CO; concentrations of NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT were associated with the highest AUC (85.1 and 85.8, respectively). Combining these two biomarkers above their selected cut-off values significantly increased risk for the CO (HR 3.18; 95%CI 1.31-7.79). No events were reported in the patients in whom the two biomarkers were under the cut-off values, and when both levels were above cut-off values, the CO was observed in 60.71%. CONCLUSION: The combination of NT-proBNP and hs-TnT above their selected cut-off values is associated with a 3-fold increase in the risk of the composite outcome among CCM patients. The use of cardiac biomarkers may improve prognostic evaluation of patients with CCM.

Circulating Trypanosoma cruzi load and major cardiovascular outcomes in patients with chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the effect of parasite load assessed by quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR) in serum on the prognosis of patients with chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCM) after a 2-year follow-up. METHODS: Prospective cohort study conducted between 2015 and 2017. One hundred patients with CCM were included. Basal parasitaemia levels of Trypanosoma cruzi (T. cruzi) were measured using a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) test. The primary composite outcome (CO) was all-cause mortality, cardiac transplantation and implantation of a left ventricular assist device. Secondary outcomes were the baseline levels of serum biomarkers and echocardiographic variables. RESULTS: After a 2 years of follow-up, the primary CO rate was 16%. A positive qPCR was not associated with a higher risk of the CO. However, when parasitaemia was evaluated by comparing tertiles (tertile 1: undetectable parasitaemia, tertile 2: low parasitaemia and tertile 3: high parasitaemia), a higher risk of the CO (HR 3.66; 95% CI 1.11-12.21) was evidenced in tertile 2. Moreover, patients in tertile 2 had significantly higher levels of high-sensitivity troponin T and cystatin C and more frequently exhibited an ejection fraction <50%. CONCLUSION: Low parasitaemia was associated with severity markers of myocardial injury and a higher risk of the composite outcome when compared with undetectable parasitaemia. This finding could be hypothetically explained by a more vigorous immune response in patients with low parasitaemia that could decrease T. cruzi load more efficiently, but be associated with increased myocardial damage. Additional studies with a larger number of patients and cytokine measurement are required to support this hypothesis.

OBJECTIFS: Analyser l'effet de la charge parasitaire évaluée par PCR quantitative de transcription inverse (RT-qPCR) dans le sérum sur le pronostic des patients atteints de cardiomyopathie chronique de Chagas (CCM) après un suivi de deux ans. MÉTHODES: Etude de cohorte prospective menée entre 2015 et 2017. Une centaine de patients atteints de CCM ont été inclus. Les niveaux de parasitémie basale de Trypanosoma cruzi (T. cruzi) ont été mesurés en utilisant un test de réaction en chaîne de la polymérase quantitative (qPCR). Le principal résultat composite (RC) était la mortalité toutes causes, la transplantation cardiaque et l'implantation d'un dispositif d'assistance ventriculaire gauche. Les critères secondaires étaient les niveaux de base des biomarqueurs sériques et des variables échocardiographiques. RÉSULTATS: Après 2 ans de suivi, le taux de RC primaire était de 16%. Une qPCR positive n'était pas associée à un risque plus élevé de RC. Cependant, lorsque la parasitémie était évaluée en comparant les tertiles (tertile 1: parasitémie indétectable, tertile 2: parasitémie faible et tertile 3: parasitémie élevée), un risque plus élevé de RC (HR: 3,66; IC95%: 1,11-12,21) a été mis en évidence dans le tertile 2. De plus, les patients du tertile 2 avaient des niveaux significativement plus élevés de troponine T et de cystatine-C à haute sensibilité et présentaient plus fréquemment une fraction d'éjection <50%. CONCLUSION: Une faible parasitémie était associée à des marqueurs de sévérité des lésions myocardiques et à un risque plus élevé de résultat composite par rapport à une parasitémie indétectable. Cette découverte pourrait être hypothétiquement expliquée par une réponse immunitaire plus vigoureuse chez les patients présentant une faible parasitémie qui pourrait diminuer la charge de T. cruzi plus efficacement mais être associée à une augmentation des lésions myocardiques. Des études supplémentaires avec un plus grand nombre de patients et une mesure des cytokines sont nécessaires pour étayer cette hypothèse.

Arterial calcification at multiple sites: sex-specific cardiovascular risk profiles and mortality risk-the Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence has pointed towards differences in the burden of arteriosclerosis according to its location and sex. Yet there is a scarcity of population-based data on aggregated sex-specific cardiovascular risk profiles, instead of single risk factors, and mortality risk according to the location of arteriosclerosis. We assessed sex-specific cardiovascular risk profiles and mortality risk associated with arteriosclerosis. METHODS: From the population-based Rotterdam Study, 2357 participants (mean age 69 years, 53% women) underwent non-contrast computed tomography to quantify calcification, as a proxy for arteriosclerosis, in the coronary arteries (CAC), aortic arch (AAC), extracranial (ECAC) and intracranial carotid arteries (ICAC), vertebrobasilar arteries (VBAC), and aortic valve (AVC). Principal component analysis (PCA) of eight distinct cardiovascular risk factors was performed, separately for women and men, to derive risk profiles based on the shared variance between factors. We used sex-stratified multivariable logistic regression to examine the associations between PCA-derived risk profiles and severe calcification at different locations. We investigated the associations of severe calcification with mortality risk using sex-stratified multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS: PCA identified three cardiovascular risk profiles in both sexes: (1) anthropometry, glucose, and HDL cholesterol; (2) blood pressure; and (3) smoking and total cholesterol. In women, the strongest associations were found for profile 2 with severe ECAC and ICAC (adjusted OR [95% CI] 1.32 [1.14-1.53]) and for profile 3 with severe at all locations, except AVC. In men, the strongest associations were found for profile 2 with VBAC (1.31 [1.12-1.52]) and profile 3 with severe AAC (1.28 [1.09-1.51]). ECAC and AVC in women and CAC in men showed the strongest, independent associations with cardiovascular mortality (HR [95% CI] 2.11 [1.22-3.66], 2.05 [1.21-3.49], 2.24 [1.21-3.78], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings further underline the existence of sex- and location-specific differences in the etiology and consequences of arteriosclerosis. Future research should unravel which distinct pathological processes underlie differences in risk profiles for arteriosclerosis.

Myocardial Involvement in Chagas Disease and Insulin Resistance: A Non-Metabolic Model of Cardiomyopathy.

Background: Heart failure (HF) and type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) represent two chronic interrelated conditions accounting for significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Insulin resistance (IR) has been identified as a risk factor for HF; however, the risk of IR that HF confers has not been well elucidated. The present study aims to analyze the association between myocardial involvement in Chronic Chagas Cardiomyopathy (CCM) and IR, taking advantage of this non-metabolic model of the disease. Methods: Cross-sectional study performed during the period 2015-2016. Adults with a serological diagnosis of Chagas disease were included, being divided into two groups: CCM and non-CCM. IR was determined by HOMA-IR index. Bivariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression were performed to determine the association between IR as an outcome and CCM as primary exposure. Results: 200 patients were included in the study, with a mean age of 54.7 years and a female predominance (53.5%). Seventy-four (37.0%) patients were found to have IR, with a median HOMA-IR index of 3.9 (Q1 = 3.1; Q3 = 5.1). Multiple metabolic variables were significantly associated with IR. In a model analyzing only individuals with an altered HWI, an evident association between CCM and IR was observed (OR 4.08; 95% CI 1.55-10.73, p = 0.004). Conclusion: CCM was significantly associated with IR in patients with an altered HWI. The presence of this association in a non-metabolic model of HF (in which the myocardial involvement is expected to be mediated mostly by the parasitic infection) may support the evidence of a direct unidirectional correlation between this last and IR.

Survival After Uncomplicated EVAR in Octogenarians is Similar to the General Population of Octogenarians Without an Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm.

OBJECTIVE: Long term survival after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) in octogenarians remains unclear. This was evaluated by comparing octogenarians after EVAR with a matched group of octogenarians without an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) from the Rotterdam Study (RS). The influence of complications after EVAR on survival was also studied with the aim of identifying risk factors for the development of complications in octogenarians. METHODS: Using propensity score matching (PSM), 83 EVAR octogenarians were matched for comorbidities with 83 octogenarians from the RS, and survival was compared between these two groups using Cox proportional hazard analysis. Then, complications were studied, defined as cardiac or pulmonary, renal deterioration, access site bleeding, acute limb ischaemia or bowel ischaemia, within 30 days of surgery between 83 EVAR octogenarians and 475 EVAR non-octogenarians. Also, the difference in baseline characteristics between the octogenarians with and without complications after EVAR were studied, and survival was compared between the RS controls and the complicated and uncomplicated EVAR octogenarians separately. RESULTS: The total EVAR octogenarian population did not show an increased mortality risk compared with RS octogenarian controls (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-1.97). Post-operative complications occurred in 22 octogenarians (27%) and 59 non-octogenarians (12.4%, p < .001), mainly cardiac, pulmonary, and bleeding complications. All baseline characteristics were similar in the complicated EVAR octogenarians compared with the uncomplicated EVAR octogenarians. After uncomplicated EVAR, octogenarians had a similar survival compared with the RS controls (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.68-1.77), but after complicated EVAR their mortality risk increased significantly (HR 1.93, 95% CI 1.06-3.54). CONCLUSION: After standard EVAR, the life expectancy of octogenarians is the same as that of a matched group from the general population without an AAA, provided they do not develop early post-operative complications. Patient selection and meticulous peri-operative care are key.

The cardiovascular risk profile of middle age women previously diagnosed with premature ovarian insufficiency: A case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in women worldwide. The cardiovascular risk profile deteriorates after women enter menopause. By definition, women diagnosed with premature ovarian insufficiency (POI) experience menopause before 40 years of age, which may render these women even more susceptible to develop CVD later in life. However, prospective long-term follow up data of well phenotyped women with POI are scarce. In the current study we compare the CVD profile and risk of middle aged women previously diagnosed with POI, to a population based reference group matched for age and BMI. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compared 123 women (age 49.0 (± 4.3) years) and diagnosed with POI 8.1 (IQR: 6.8-9.6) years earlier, with 123 population controls (age 49.4 (± 3.9) years). All women underwent an extensive standardized cardiovascular screening. We assessed CVD risk factors including waist circumference, BMI, blood pressure, lipid profile, pulse wave velocity (PWV), and the prevalence of diabetes mellitus, metabolic syndrome (MetS) and carotid intima media thickness (cIMT), in both women with POI and controls. We calculated the 10-year CVD Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and the American Heart Association's suggested cardiovascular health score (CHS). Waist circumference (90.0 (IQR: 83.0-98.0) versus 80.7 (IQR: 75.1-86.8), p < 0.01), waist-to-hip ratio (0.90 (IQR: 0.85-0.93) versus 0.79 (IQR: 0.75-0.83), p < 0.01), systolic blood pressure (124 (IQR 112-135) versus 120 (IQR109-131), p < 0.04) and diastolic blood pressure (81 (IQR: 76-89) versus 78 (IQR: 71-86), p < 0.01), prevalence of hypertension (45 (37%) versus 21 (17%), p < 0.01) and MetS (19 (16%) versus 4 (3%), p < 0.01) were all significantly increased in women with POI compared to healthy controls. Other risk factors, however, such as lipids, glucose levels and prevalence of diabetes were similar comparing women with POI versus controls. The arterial stiffness assessed by PWV was also similar in both populations (8.1 (IQR: 7.1-9.4) versus 7.9 (IQR: 7.1-8.4), p = 0.21). In addition, cIMT was lower in women with POI compared to controls (550 µm (500-615) versus 684 µm (618-737), p < 0.01). The calculated 10-year CVD risk was 5.9% (IQR: 3.7-10.6) versus 6.0% (IQR: 3.9-9.0) (p = 0.31) and current CHS was 6.1 (1.9) versus 6.5 (1.6) (p = 0.07), respectively in POI versus controls. CONCLUSIONS: Middle age women with POI presented with more unfavorable cardiovascular risk factors (increased waist circumference and a higher prevalence of hypertension and MetS) compared to age and BMI matched population controls. In contrast, the current study reveals a lower cIMT and similar 10-year cardiovascular disease risk and cardiovascular health score. In summary, neither signs of premature atherosclerosis nor a worse cardiovascular disease risk or health score were observed among middle age women with POI compared to population controls. Longer-term follow-up studies of women of more advanced age are warranted to establish whether women with POI are truly at increased risk of developing CVD events later in life. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02616510.

Epigenetic Link Between Statin Therapy and Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the role of epigenetics in statins' diabetogenic effect comparing DNA methylation (DNAm) between statin users and nonusers in an epigenome-wide association study in blood. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Five cohort studies' participants (n = 8,270) were classified as statin users when they were on statin therapy at the time of DNAm assessment with Illumina 450K or EPIC array or noncurrent users otherwise. Associations of DNAm with various outcomes like incident type 2 diabetes, plasma glucose, insulin, and insulin resistance (HOMA of insulin resistance [HOMA-IR]) as well as with gene expression were investigated. RESULTS: Discovery (n = 6,820) and replication (n = 1,450) phases associated five DNAm sites with statin use: cg17901584 (1.12 × 10-25 [DHCR24]), cg10177197 (3.94 × 10-08 [DHCR24]), cg06500161 (2.67 × 10-23 [ABCG1]), cg27243685 (6.01 × 10-09 [ABCG1]), and cg05119988 (7.26 × 10-12 [SC4MOL]). Two sites were associated with at least one glycemic trait or type 2 diabetes. Higher cg06500161 methylation was associated with higher fasting glucose, insulin, HOMA-IR, and type 2 diabetes (odds ratio 1.34 [95% CI 1.22, 1.47]). Mediation analyses suggested that ABCG1 methylation partially mediates the effect of statins on high insulin and HOMA-IR. Gene expression analyses showed that statin exposure and ABCG1 methylation were associated with ABCG1 downregulation, suggesting epigenetic regulation of ABCG1 expression. Further, outcomes insulin and HOMA-IR were significantly associated with ABCG1 expression. CONCLUSIONS: This study sheds light on potential mechanisms linking statins with type 2 diabetes risk, providing evidence on DNAm partially mediating statins' effects on insulin traits. Further efforts shall disentangle the molecular mechanisms through which statins may induce DNAm changes, potentially leading to ABCG1 epigenetic regulation.

Echocardiographic parameters, speckle tracking, and brain natriuretic peptide levels as indicators of progression of indeterminate stage to Chagas cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCM) is characterized by a unique type of cardiac involvement. Few studies have characterized echocardiographic (Echo) transitions from the indeterminate Chagas disease (ChD) form to CCM. The objective of this study was to identify the best cutoffs in multiple Echo parameters, speckle tracking, and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) to distinguish patients without CCM (stage A) vs patients with myocardial involvement (stages B, C, or D). METHODS: Cross-sectional study conducted in 273 consecutive patients with different CCM stages. Echo parameters, NT-proBNP, and other clinical variables were measured. Logistic regression models (dichotomized in stage A versus B, C, and D) adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and NT-proBNP were performed. RESULTS: Left ventricular global longitudinal strain (LV-GLS), mitral flow E velocity, LV mass index, and NT-proBNP identified early changes that differentiated stages A vs B, C, and D. The LV-GLS with a cutoff -20.5% showed the highest performance (AUC 92.99%; accuracy 84.56% and negative predictive value (NPV) 88.82%), which improved when it was additionally adjusted by NT-proBNP with a cutoff -20.0% (AUC 94.30%; accuracy 88.42% and NPV 93.55%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that Echo parameters and NT-proBNP may be used as diagnostic variables in detecting the onset of myocardial alterations in patients with the indeterminate stage of ChD. LV-GLS was the more accurate measurement regarding stage A differentiation from the stages B, C, and D. Prospective longitudinal studies are needed to validate these findings.

Development and External Validation of a Deep Learning Algorithm for Prognostication of Cardiovascular Outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: We aim to explore the additional discriminative accuracy of a deep learning (DL) algorithm using repeated-measures data for identifying people at high risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD), compared to Cox hazard regression. METHODS: Two CVD prediction models were developed from National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening Cohort (NHIS-HEALS): a Cox regression model and a DL model. Performance of each model was assessed in the internal and 2 external validation cohorts in Koreans (National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort; NHIS-NSC) and in Europeans (Rotterdam Study). A total of 412,030 adults in the NHIS-HEALS; 178,875 adults in the NHIS-NSC; and the 4,296 adults in Rotterdam Study were included. RESULTS: Mean ages was 52 years (46% women) and there were 25,777 events (6.3%) in NHIS-HEALS during the follow-up. In internal validation, the DL approach demonstrated a C-statistic of 0.896 (95% confidence interval, 0.886-0.907) in men and 0.921 (0.908-0.934) in women and improved reclassification compared with Cox regression (net reclassification index [NRI], 24.8% in men, 29.0% in women). In external validation with NHIS-NSC, DL demonstrated a C-statistic of 0.868 (0.860-0.876) in men and 0.889 (0.876-0.898) in women, and improved reclassification compared with Cox regression (NRI, 24.9% in men, 26.2% in women). In external validation applied to the Rotterdam Study, DL demonstrated a C-statistic of 0.860 (0.824-0.897) in men and 0.867 (0.830-0.903) in women, and improved reclassification compared with Cox regression (NRI, 36.9% in men, 31.8% in women). CONCLUSIONS: A DL algorithm exhibited greater discriminative accuracy than Cox model approaches. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02931500.

Sex-specific distributions and determinants of thoracic aortic diameters in the elderly.

OBJECTIVE: To provide population-based distributions of thoracic aortic diameters in men and women aged 55 years or older and to identify determinants of thoracic aortic diameters. METHODS: From 2003 to 2006, 2505 participants (1208 men, mean age 69.1±6.8 years) from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study underwent non-enhanced cardiac CT. The diameter of the ascending (AA) and descending aorta (DA) was measured at the level of the pulmonary bifurcation. RESULTS: The mean diameter of the ascending and descending aorta was substantially larger in men (38±4 mm and 30±2 mm) than in women (35±3 mm and 27±2 mm). An ascending aortic diameter of larger than 40 mm was found in 228 (18.9%) men and 76 (5.9%) women and a descending aortic diameter larger than 40 mm was found in two men and no women. Male sex was found to be independently associated with larger DA diameter (standardised ß 0.24, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.30), while a statistically non-significant trend was found for the AA diameter (standardised ß 0.06, 95% CI 0.00 to 0.12). Age, height, weight and traditional cardiovascular risk factors were also associated with larger AA and/or DA diameters. Diabetes was associated with smaller AA and DA diameters. We found no evidence for effect modification by sex. CONCLUSIONS: In persons aged 55 years or older, an ascending aortic diameter of 40 mm or larger was found in 18.9% of men and 5.9% of women. Given the importance of sex, sex-specific distribution values may prove useful in clinical practice, even when correcting for body surface area or height.

Development and verification of prediction models for preventing cardiovascular diseases.

OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the major causes of death worldwide. For improved accuracy of CVD prediction, risk classification was performed using national time-series health examination data. The data offers an opportunity to access deep learning (RNN-LSTM), which is widely known as an outstanding algorithm for analyzing time-series datasets. The objective of this study was to show the improved accuracy of deep learning by comparing the performance of a Cox hazard regression and RNN-LSTM based on survival analysis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We selected 361,239 subjects (age 40 to 79 years) with more than two health examination records from 2002-2006 using the National Health Insurance System-National Health Screening Cohort (NHIS-HEALS). The average number of health screenings (from 2002-2013) used in the analysis was 2.9 ± 1.0. Two CVD prediction models were developed from the NHIS-HEALS data: a Cox hazard regression model and a deep learning model. In an internal validation of the NHIS-HEALS dataset, the Cox regression model showed a highest time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.87) for in females and 0.75 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.80) in males at 2 years. The deep learning model showed a highest time-dependent AUC of 0.94 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.97) for in females and 0.96 (95% CI 0.95 to 0.97) in males at 2 years. Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) revealed that age was the variable that had the greatest effect on CVD, followed by systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), in that order. CONCLUSION: The performance of the deep learning model for predicting CVD occurrences was better than that of the Cox regression model. In addition, it was confirmed that the known risk factors shown to be important by previous clinical studies were extracted from the study results using LRP.

Risk factors for longitudinal changes in left ventricular diastolic function among women and men.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate changes in left ventricular diastolic function (LVDF) parameters and their associated risk factors over a period of 11 years among community-dwelling women and men. METHODS: Echocardiography was performed three times among 870 women and 630 men (age 67±3 years) from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study during a period of 11-year follow-up. Changes in six continuous LVDF parameters were correlated with cardiovascular risk factors using a linear-mixed effect model (LMM). RESULTS: In women, smoking was associated with deleterious longitudinal changes in deceleration time (DT) (Beta (ß): 7.73; 95% CI 2.56 to 12.9) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with improvement of septal e' (ß: 0.37; 95% CI 0.13 to 0.62) and E/e' ratio (ß: -0.46; 95% CI -0.84 to -0.08) trajectories. Among men, diabetes was associated with deleterious longitudinal changes in A wave (ß: 3.83; 95% CI 0.06 to 7.60), septal e' (ß: -0.40; 95% CI -0.70 to -0.09) and E/e' ratio (ß: 0.60; 95% CI 0.14 to 1.06) and body mass index was associated with deleterious longitudinal changes in A wave (ß: 1.25; 95% CI 0.84 to 1.66), E/A ratio (ß: -0.007; 95% CI -0.01 to -0.003), DT (ß: 0.86; 95% CI 0.017 to 1.71) and E/e' ratio (ß: 0.12; 95% CI 0.06 to 0.19). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking among women and metabolic factors (diabetes mellitus and body mass index) among men showed larger deleterious associations with longitudinal changes in LVDF parameters. The favourable association of HDL was mainly observed among women. This study, for the first time, evaluates risk factors associated with changes over time in continuous LVDF parameters among women and men and generates new hypothesis for further medical research.

Impact of cumulative SBP and serious adverse events on efficacy of intensive blood pressure treatment: a randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Intensive blood pressure lowering is increasingly gaining attention. In addition to higher baseline blood pressure, cumulative SBP, visit-to-visit variability, and treatment-induced serious adverse events (SAEs) could impact treatment efficacy over time. Our aim was to assess the impact of cumulative SBP and SAEs on intensive hypertension treatment efficacy in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) population during follow-up. METHODS: Secondary analysis of the SPRINT study: a randomized, controlled, open-label trial including 102 clinical sites in the United States. We included 9068 SPRINT participants with 128 139 repeated SBP measurements. Participants were randomly assigned to intensive (target SBP < 120 mmHg) versus standard treatment (target SBP between 135 and 139 mmHg). We used cumulative joint models for longitudinal and survival data analysis. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of myocardial infarction, other acute coronary syndromes, acute decompensated heart failure, stroke, and cardiovascular mortality. RESULTS: Although intensive treatment decreased the risk for the primary SPRINT outcome at the start of follow-up, its effect lost significance after 3.4 years of follow-up in the total SPRINT population and after 1.3, 1.3, 1.1, 1.8, 2.1, 1.8, and 3.4 years among participants with prevalent chronic kidney disease, prevalent cardiovascular disease, women, black individuals, participants less than 75 years, those with baseline SBP more than 132 mmHg, and individuals who suffered SAEs during follow-up, respectively. CONCLUSION: The initial beneficial impact of intensive hypertension treatment might be offset by cumulative SBP and development of SAEs during follow-up.

Electrocardiographic abnormalities in Chagas disease in the general population: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Chagas disease (CD) is a major public health concern in Latin America and a potentially serious emerging threat in non-endemic countries. Although the association between CD and cardiac abnormalities is widely reported, study design diversity, sample size and quality challenge the information, calling for its update and synthesis, which would be very useful and relevant for physicians in non-endemic countries where health care implications of CD are real and neglected. We performed to systematically review and meta-analyze population-based studies that compared prevalence of overall and specific ECG abnormalities between CD and non-CD participants in the general population. METHODS: Six databases (EMBASE, Ovid Medline, Web of Science, Cochrane Central, Google Scholar and Lilacs) were searched systematically. Observational studies were included. Odds ratios (OR) were computed using random-effects model. RESULTS: Forty-nine studies were selected, including 34,023(12,276 CD and 21,747 non-CD). Prevalence of overall ECG abnormalities was higher in participants with CD (40.1%; 95%CIs=39.2-41.0) compared to non-CD (24.1%; 95%CIs=23.5-24.7) (OR=2.78; 95%CIs=2.37-3.26). Among specific ECG abnormalities, prevalence of complete right bundle branch block (RBBB) (OR=4.60; 95%CIs=2.97-7.11), left anterior fascicular block (LAFB) (OR=1.60; 95%CIs=1.21-2.13), combination of complete RBBB/LAFB (OR=3.34; 95%CIs=1.76-6.35), first-degree atrioventricular block (A-V B) (OR=1.71; 95%CIs=1.25-2.33), atrial fibrillation (AF) or flutter (OR=2.11; 95%CIs=1.40-3.19) and ventricular extrasystoles (VE) (OR=1.62; 95%CIs=1.14-2.30) was higher in CD compared to non-CD participants. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review and meta-analysis provides an update and synthesis in this field. This research of observational studies indicates a significant excess in prevalence of ECG abnormalities (40.1%) related to T. cruzi infection in the general population from Chagas endemic regions, being the most common ventricular (RBBB and LAFB), and A-V B (first-degree) node conduction abnormalities as well as arrhythmias (AF or flutter and VE). Also, prevalence of ECG alterations in children was similar to that in adults and suggests earlier onset of cardiac disease.