Measuring the availability and geographical accessibility of maternal health services across sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: With universal health coverage a key component of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, targeted monitoring is crucial for reducing inequalities in the provision of services. However, monitoring largely occurs at the national level, masking sub-national variation. Here, we estimate indicators for measuring the availability and geographical accessibility of services, at national and sub-national levels across sub-Saharan Africa, to show how data at varying spatial scales and input data can considerably impact monitoring outcomes. METHODS: Availability was estimated using the World Health Organization guidelines for monitoring emergency obstetric care, defined as the number of hospitals per 500,000 population. Geographical accessibility was estimated using the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery, defined as the proportion of pregnancies within 2 h of the nearest hospital. These were calculated using geo-located hospital data for sub-Saharan Africa, with their associated travel times, along with small area estimates of population and pregnancies. The results of the availability analysis were then compared to the results of the accessibility analysis, to highlight differences between the availability and geographical accessibility of services. RESULTS: Despite most countries meeting the targets at the national level, we identified substantial sub-national variation, with 58% of the countries having at least one administrative unit not meeting the availability target at province level and 95% at district level. Similarly, 56% of the countries were found to have at least one province not meeting the accessibility target, increasing to 74% at the district level. When comparing both availability and accessibility within countries, most countries were found to meet both targets; however sub-nationally, many countries fail to meet one or the other. CONCLUSION: While many of the countries met the targets at the national level, we found large within-country variation. Monitoring under the current guidelines, using national averages, can mask these areas of need, with potential consequences for vulnerable women and children. It is imperative therefore that indicators for monitoring the availability and geographical accessibility of health care reflect this need, if targets for universal health coverage are to be met by 2030.

Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe.

As rates of new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases decline across Europe owing to nonpharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. We use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we find that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe means that half as many lockdown periods would be required to end continent-wide community transmission.

Gridded birth and pregnancy datasets for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean.

Understanding the fine scale spatial distribution of births and pregnancies is crucial for informing planning decisions related to public health. This is especially important in lower income countries where infectious disease is a major concern for pregnant women and new-borns, as highlighted by the recent Zika virus epidemic. Despite this, the spatial detail of basic data on the numbers and distribution of births and pregnancies is often of a coarse resolution and difficult to obtain, with no co-ordination between countries and organisations to create one consistent set of subnational estimates. To begin to address this issue, under the framework of the WorldPop program, an open access archive of high resolution gridded birth and pregnancy distribution datasets for all African, Latin America and Caribbean countries has been created. Datasets were produced using the most recent and finest level census and official population estimate data available and are at a resolution of 30 arc seconds (approximately 1 km at the equator). All products are available through WorldPop.

Exploring the high-resolution mapping of gender-disaggregated development indicators.

Improved understanding of geographical variation and inequity in health status, wealth and access to resources within countries is increasingly being recognized as central to meeting development goals. Development and health indicators assessed at national or subnational scale can often conceal important inequities, with the rural poor often least well represented. The ability to target limited resources is fundamental, especially in an international context where funding for health and development comes under pressure. This has recently prompted the exploration of the potential of spatial interpolation methods based on geolocated clusters from national household survey data for the high-resolution mapping of features such as population age structures, vaccination coverage and access to sanitation. It remains unclear, however, how predictable these different factors are across different settings, variables and between demographic groups. Here we test the accuracy of spatial interpolation methods in producing gender-disaggregated high-resolution maps of the rates of literacy, stunting and the use of modern contraceptive methods from a combination of geolocated demographic and health surveys cluster data and geospatial covariates. Bayesian geostatistical and machine learning modelling methods were tested across four low-income countries and varying gridded environmental and socio-economic covariate datasets to build 1×1 km spatial resolution maps with uncertainty estimates. Results show the potential of the approach in producing high-resolution maps of key gender-disaggregated socio-economic indicators, with explained variance through cross-validation being as high as 74-75% for female literacy in Nigeria and Kenya, and in the 50-70% range for many other variables. However, substantial variations by both country and variable were seen, with many variables showing poor mapping accuracies in the range of 2-30% explained variance using both geostatistical and machine learning approaches. The analyses offer a robust basis for the construction of timely maps with levels of detail that support geographically stratified decision-making and the monitoring of progress towards development goals. However, the great variability in results between countries and variables highlights the challenges in applying these interpolation methods universally across multiple countries, and the importance of validation and quantifying uncertainty if this is undertaken.