Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe.

As rates of new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases decline across Europe owing to nonpharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. We use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we find that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe means that half as many lockdown periods would be required to end continent-wide community transmission.

Exploring the high-resolution mapping of gender-disaggregated development indicators.

Improved understanding of geographical variation and inequity in health status, wealth and access to resources within countries is increasingly being recognized as central to meeting development goals. Development and health indicators assessed at national or subnational scale can often conceal important inequities, with the rural poor often least well represented. The ability to target limited resources is fundamental, especially in an international context where funding for health and development comes under pressure. This has recently prompted the exploration of the potential of spatial interpolation methods based on geolocated clusters from national household survey data for the high-resolution mapping of features such as population age structures, vaccination coverage and access to sanitation. It remains unclear, however, how predictable these different factors are across different settings, variables and between demographic groups. Here we test the accuracy of spatial interpolation methods in producing gender-disaggregated high-resolution maps of the rates of literacy, stunting and the use of modern contraceptive methods from a combination of geolocated demographic and health surveys cluster data and geospatial covariates. Bayesian geostatistical and machine learning modelling methods were tested across four low-income countries and varying gridded environmental and socio-economic covariate datasets to build 1×1 km spatial resolution maps with uncertainty estimates. Results show the potential of the approach in producing high-resolution maps of key gender-disaggregated socio-economic indicators, with explained variance through cross-validation being as high as 74-75% for female literacy in Nigeria and Kenya, and in the 50-70% range for many other variables. However, substantial variations by both country and variable were seen, with many variables showing poor mapping accuracies in the range of 2-30% explained variance using both geostatistical and machine learning approaches. The analyses offer a robust basis for the construction of timely maps with levels of detail that support geographically stratified decision-making and the monitoring of progress towards development goals. However, the great variability in results between countries and variables highlights the challenges in applying these interpolation methods universally across multiple countries, and the importance of validation and quantifying uncertainty if this is undertaken.

Experience- and age-mediated oviposition behaviour in the yellow fever mosquito Stegomyia aegypti (=Aedes aegypti).

In repeated behaviours such as those of feeding and reproduction, past experiences can inform future behaviour. By altering their behaviour in response to environmental stimuli, insects in highly variable landscapes can tailor their behaviour to their particular environment. In particular, female mosquitoes may benefit from plasticity in their choice of egg-laying site as these sites are often temporally variable and clustered. The opportunity to adapt egg-laying behaviour to past experience also exists for mosquito populations as females typically lay eggs multiple times throughout their lives. Whether experience and age affect egg-laying (or oviposition) behaviour in the mosquito Stegomyia aegypti (=Aedes aegypti) (Diptera: Culicidae) was assessed using a wind tunnel. Initially, gravid mosquitoes were provided with a cup containing either repellent or well water. After ovipositing in these cups, the mosquitoes were blood-fed and introduced into a wind tunnel. In this wind tunnel, an oviposition cup containing repellent was placed in the immediate vicinity of the gravid mosquitoes. A cup containing well water was placed at the opposite end of the tunnel so that if the females flew across the chamber, they encountered the well water cup, in which they readily laid eggs. Mosquitoes previously exposed to repellent cups became significantly more likely to later lay eggs in repellent cups, suggesting that previous experience with suboptimal oviposition sites informs mosquitoes of the characteristics of nearby oviposition sites. These results provide further evidence that mosquitoes modify behaviour in response to environmental information and are demonstrated in a vector species in which behavioural plasticity may be ecologically and epidemiologically meaningful.