An Association between Rainy Days with Clinical Dengue Fever in Dhaka, Bangladesh: Findings from a Hospital Based Study.

BACKGROUND: Dengue, a febrile illness, is caused by a Flavivirus transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Climate influences the ecology of the vectors. We aimed to identify the influence of climatic variability on the occurrence of clinical dengue requiring hospitalization in Zone-5, a high incidence area of Dhaka City Corporation (DCC), Bangladesh. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We retrospectively identified clinical dengue cases hospitalized from Zone-5 of DCC between 2005 and 2009. We extracted records of the four major catchment hospitals of the study area. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) provided data on temperature, rainfall, and humidity of DCC for the study period. We used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for the number of monthly dengue hospitalizations. We also modeled all the climatic variables using Poisson regression. During our study period, dengue occurred throughout the year in Zone-5 of DCC. The median number of hospitalized dengue cases was 9 per month. Dengue incidence increased sharply from June, and reached its peak in August. One additional rainy day per month increased dengue cases in the succeeding month by 6% (RR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04-1.09). CONCLUSIONS: Dengue is transmitted throughout the year in Zone-5 of DCC, with seasonal variation in incidence. The number of rainy days per month is significantly associated with dengue incidence in the subsequent month. Our study suggests the initiation of campaigns in DCC for controlling dengue and other Aedes mosquito borne diseases, including Chikunguniya from the month of May each year. BMD rainfall data may be used to determine campaign timing.

Effect of the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness strategy on childhood mortality and nutrition in a rural area in Bangladesh: a cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: WHO and UNICEF launched the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) strategy in the mid-1990s to reduce deaths from diarrhoea, pneumonia, malaria, measles, and malnutrition in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the effect of IMCI on health and nutrition of children younger than 5 years in Bangladesh. METHODS: In this cluster randomised trial, 20 first-level government health facilities in the Matlab subdistrict of Bangladesh and their catchment areas (total population about 350 000) were paired and randomly assigned to either IMCI (intervention; ten clusters) or usual services (comparison; ten clusters). All three components of IMCI-health-worker training, health-systems improvements, and family and community activities-were implemented beginning in February, 2002. Assessment included household and health facility surveys tracking intermediate outputs and outcomes, and nutrition and mortality changes in intervention and comparison areas. Primary endpoint was mortality in children aged between 7 days and 59 months. Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered, number ISRCTN52793850. FINDINGS: The yearly rate of mortality reduction in children younger than 5 years (excluding deaths in first week of life) was similar in IMCI and comparison areas (8.6%vs 7.8%). In the last 2 years of the study, the mortality rate was 13.4% lower in IMCI than in comparison areas (95% CI -14.2 to 34.3), corresponding to 4.2 fewer deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% CI -4.1 to 12.4; p=0.30). Implementation of IMCI led to improved health-worker skills, health-system support, and family and community practices, translating into increased care-seeking for illnesses. In IMCI areas, more children younger than 6 months were exclusively breastfed (76%vs 65%, difference of differences 10.1%, 95% CI 2.65-17.62), and prevalence of stunting in children aged 24-59 months decreased more rapidly (difference of differences -7.33, 95% CI -13.83 to -0.83) than in comparison areas. INTERPRETATION: IMCI was associated with positive changes in all input, output, and outcome indicators, including increased exclusive breastfeeding and decreased stunting. However, IMCI implementation had no effect on mortality within the timeframe of the assessment. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO's Department of Child and Adolescent Health and Development, and US Agency for International Development.