Rethinking atoll futures: local resilience to global challenges.

Atoll islands are often perceived as inevitably lost due to rising sea levels. However, unlike other islands, atoll islands are dynamic landforms that have evolved, at least historically, to vertically accrete at a pace commensurate with changing sea levels. Rather than atoll islands' low elevation per se, the impairment of natural accretion processes is jeopardising their persistence. While global marine impacts are deteriorating coral reefs, local impacts also significantly affect accretion, together potentially tipping the scales toward atoll island erosion. Maintaining atoll island accretion requires intact sediment generation on coral reefs, unobstructed sediment transport from reef to island, and available vegetated deposition sites on the island. Ensuring the persistence of atoll islands must include global greenhouse gas emission reduction and local restoration of accretion processes.

A cross-sectional investigation of Leptospira at the wildlife-livestock interface in New Zealand.

There has been a recent upsurge in human cases of leptospirosis in New Zealand, with wildlife a suspected emerging source, but up-to-date knowledge on this topic is lacking. We conducted a cross-sectional study in two farm environments to estimate Leptospira seroprevalence in wildlife and sympatric livestock, PCR/culture prevalence in wildlife, and compare seroprevalence and prevalence between species, sex, and age groups. Traps targeting house mice (Mus musculus), black rats (Rattus rattus), hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) and brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) were set for 10 trap-nights in March-April 2017 on a dairy (A) and a beef and sheep (B) farm. Trapped wild animals and an age-stratified random sample of domestic animals, namely cattle, sheep and working dogs were blood sampled. Sera were tested by microagglutination test for five serogroups and titres compared using a Proportional Similarity Index (PSI). Wildlife kidneys were sampled for culture and qPCR targeting the lipL32 gene. True prevalence in mice was assessed using occupancy modelling by collating different laboratory results. Infection profiles varied by species, age group and farm. At the MAT cut-point of ≥ 48, up to 78% of wildlife species, and 16-99% of domestic animals were seropositive. Five of nine hedgehogs, 23/105 mice and 1/14 black rats reacted to L. borgpetersenii sv Ballum. The sera of 4/18 possums and 4/9 hedgehogs reacted to L. borgpetersenii sv Hardjobovis whilst 1/18 possums and 1/9 hedgehogs reacted to Tarassovi. In ruminants, seroprevalence for Hardjobovis and Pomona ranged 0-90% and 0-71% depending on the species and age group. Titres against Ballum, Tarassovi and Copenhageni were also observed in 4-20%, 0-25% and 0-21% of domestic species, respectively. The PSI indicated rodents and livestock had the most dissimilar serological responses. Three of nine hedgehogs, 31/105 mice and 2/14 rats were carrying leptospires (PCR and/or culture positive). True prevalence estimated by occupancy modelling in mice was 38% [95% Credible Interval 26, 51%] on Farm A and 22% [11, 40%] on Farm B. In the same environment, exposure to serovars found in wildlife species was commonly detected in livestock. Transmission pathways between and within species should be assessed to help in the development of efficient mitigation strategies against Leptospira.

The global contribution of invasive vertebrate eradication as a key island restoration tool.

Islands are global hotspots for biodiversity and extinction, representing ~ 5% of Earth's land area alongside 40% of globally threatened vertebrates and 61% of global extinctions since the 1500s. Invasive species are the primary driver of native biodiversity loss on islands, though eradication of invasive species from islands has been effective at halting or reversing these trends. A global compendium of this conservation tool is essential for scaling best-practices and enabling innovations to maximize biodiversity outcomes. Here, we synthesize over 100 years of invasive vertebrate eradications from islands, comprising 1550 eradication attempts on 998 islands, with an 88% success rate. We show a significant growth in eradication activity since the 1980s, primarily driven by rodent eradications. The annual number of eradications on islands peaked in the mid-2000s, but the annual area treated continues to rise dramatically. This trend reflects increases in removal efficacy and project complexity, generating increased conservation gains. Our synthesis demonstrates the collective contribution of national interventions towards global biodiversity outcomes. Further investment in invasive vertebrate eradications from islands will expand biodiversity conservation while strengthening biodiversity resilience to climate change and creating co-benefits for human societies.

Assessing Two Different Aerial Toxin Treatments for the Management of Invasive Rats.

Aotearoa-New Zealand has embarked on an ambitious goal: to completely eradicate key invasive mammals by 2050. This will require novel tools capable of eliminating pests on a large scale. In New Zealand, large-scale pest suppression is typically carried out using aerial application of the toxin sodium fluoroacetate (1080). However, as currently applied, this tool does not remove all individuals. A novel application method, dubbed '1080-to-zero', aims to change this and reduce the abundances of target pests to zero or near-zero. One such target is black rats (Rattus rattus), an invasive species challenging to control using ground-based methods. This study monitored and compared the response of black rats to a 1080-to-zero operation and a standard suppression 1080 operation. No difference in the efficacy of rat removal was found between the two treatments. The 1080-to-zero operation did not achieve its goal of rat elimination or reduction to near-zero levels, with an estimated 1540 rats surviving across the 2200 ha treatment area. However, 1080 operations can produce variable responses, and the results observed here differ from the only other reported 1080-to-zero operation. We encourage further research into this tool, including how factors such as ecosystem type, mast fruiting and operational timing influence success.

Seabird stress and breeding: Endocrine and hematological stress biomarkers differ between gray-faced petrel (Pterodroma gouldi) colonies.

Seabird breeding success is known to reflect oceanic conditions. Gray-faced petrels (Pterodroma gouldi) breeding on the east coast of Auckland, New Zealand, exhibit poor reproductive success and slow chick development compared to west coast conspecifics. This study mapped changes in physiological traits (corticosterone [CORT] and hematological parameters) indicative of sublethal stress in this Procellariiform species between the west coast (Ihumoana) and east coast (Hawere) island colonies. We found adult gray-faced petrels on the east coast to be lighter and, unlike west coast birds, exhibited an attenuation of response CORT levels between incubation and chick-rearing phases. Such responses were also reflected in east coast chicks that were lighter and had higher feather CORT titers than west coast chicks. Measures of adult hematology and plasma biochemistry revealed significantly lower glucose levels in east coast birds and indicated that chick rearing is the most stressful phase of breeding for this species Combined; these results suggest that east coast birds are under greater nutritional stress and that parents appear to transfer the costs of poor foraging to their chicks to preserve their own condition, consequently increasing chick developmental stress. Our results suggest that any long-term decrease in ocean conditions and/or climatic shifts would be more acutely felt by east coast chicks and potentially their parents, resulting in years of poor breeding success rates on a local scale.

Gene drives for vertebrate pest control: Realistic spatial modelling of eradication probabilities and times for island mouse populations.

Invasive alien species continue to threaten global biodiversity. CRISPR-based gene drives, which can theoretically spread through populations despite imparting a fitness cost, could be used to suppress or eradicate pest populations. We develop an individual-based, spatially explicit, stochastic model to simulate the ability of CRISPR-based homing and X chromosome shredding drives to eradicate populations of invasive house mice (Mus muculus) from islands. Using the model, we explore the interactive effect of the efficiency of the drive constructs and the spatial ecology of the target population on the outcome of a gene-drive release. We also consider the impact of polyandrous mating and sperm competition, which could compromise the efficacy of some gene-drive strategies. Our results show that both drive strategies could be used to eradicate large populations of mice. Whereas parameters related to drive efficiency and demography strongly influence drive performance, we find that sperm competition following polyandrous mating is unlikely to impact the outcome of an eradication effort substantially. Assumptions regarding the spatial ecology of mice influenced the probability of and time required for eradication, with short-range dispersal capacities and limited mate-search areas producing 'chase' dynamics across the island characterized by cycles of local extinction and recolonization by mice. We also show that highly efficient drives are not always optimal, when dispersal and mate-search capabilities are low. Rapid local population suppression around the introduction sites can cause loss of the gene drive before it can spread to the entire island. We conclude that, although the design of efficient gene drives is undoubtedly critical, accurate data on the spatial ecology of target species are critical for predicting the result of a gene-drive release.

Of Mice, Cattle, and Men: A Review of the Eco-Epidemiology of Leptospira borgpetersenii Serovar Ballum.

In New Zealand (NZ), leptospirosis is a mostly occupational zoonosis, with >66% of the recently notified cases being farm or abattoir workers. Livestock species independently maintain Leptospira borgpetersenii serovar Hardjo and L. interrogans serovar Pomona, and both are included in livestock vaccines. The increasing importance in human cases of Ballum, a serovar associated with wildlife, suggests that wildlife may be an overlooked source of infection. Livestock could also act as bridge hosts for humans. Drawing from disease ecology frameworks, we chose five barriers to include in this review based on the hypothesis that cattle act as bridge hosts for Ballum. Using a narrative methodology, we collated published studies pertaining to (a) the distribution and abundance of potential wild maintenance hosts of Ballum, (b) the infection dynamics (prevalence and pathogenesis) in those same hosts, (c) Ballum shedding and survival in the environment, (d) the exposure and competency of cattle as a potential bridge host, and (e) exposure for humans as a target host of Ballum. Mice (Mus musculus), rats (Rattus rattus, R. norvegicus) and hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) were suspected as maintenance hosts of Ballum in NZ in studies conducted in the 1970s-1980s. These introduced species are distributed throughout NZ, and are present on pastures. The role of other wildlife in Ballum (and more broadly Leptospira) transmission remains poorly defined, and has not been thoroughly investigated in NZ. The experimental and natural Ballum infection of cattle suggest a low pathogenicity and the possibility of shedding. The seroprevalence in cattle appears higher in recent serosurveys (3 to 14%) compared with studies from the 1970s (0 to 3%). This review identifies gaps in the knowledge of Ballum, and highlights cattle as a potential spillover host. Further studies are required to ascertain the role that wild and domestic species may play in the eco-epidemiology of Ballum in order to understand its survival in the environment, and to inform control strategies.

The clock is ticking: Temporally prioritizing eradications on islands.

Achieving conservation objectives is time critical, but the vast number of threats and potential actions means some form of ranking is necessary to aid prioritization. Objective methods for ranking conservation actions based on when they are differentially likely to become feasible, or to succeed, are currently unavailable within existing decision-making frameworks but are critical for making informed management decisions. We demonstrate how statistical tools developed for survival (or time-to-event) analysis can be used to rank conservation actions over time, through the lens of invasive mammal eradications on islands. Here we forecast the probability of eradicating commensal rat species (Rattus rattus, R. norvegicus, R. exulans) from the New Zealand archipelago by the government's stated target of year 2050. Our methods provide temporally ranked eradication trajectories for the entire country, thus facilitating meeting nationwide policy goals. This demonstration highlights the relevance and applicability of such an approach and its utility for prioritizing globally effective conservation actions.

Invasion costs, impacts, and human agency: response to Sagoff 2020.

Article impact statement: In an era of profound biodiversity crisis, invasion costs, invader impacts, and human agency should not be dismissed.

Genetic structuring among colonies of a pantropical seabird: Implication for subspecies validation and conservation.

Investigations of the genetic structure of populations over the entire range of a species yield valuable information about connectivity among populations. Seabirds are an intriguing taxon in this regard because they move extensively when not breeding, facilitating intermixing of populations, but breed consistently on the same isolated islands, restricting gene flow among populations. The degree of genetic structuring of populations varies extensively among seabird species but they have been understudied in their tropical ranges. Here, we address this across a broad spatial scale by using microsatellite and mitochondrial data to explore the population connectivity of 13 breeding populations representing the six subspecies of the white-tailed tropicbird (Phaethon lepturus) in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans. Our primary aim was to identify appropriate conservation units for this little known species. Three morphometric characters were also examined in the subspecies. We found a clear pattern of population structuring with four genetic groups. The most ancient and the most isolated group was in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. The South Atlantic populations and South Mozambique Channel population on Europa were genetically isolated and may have had a common ancestor. Birds from the Indo-Pacific region showed unclear and weak genetic differentiation. This structuring was most well defined from nuclear and mtDNA markers but was less well resolved by morphological data. The validity of classifying white-tailed tropicbirds into six distinct subspecies is discussed in light of our new findings. From a conservation standpoint our results highlight that the three most threatened conservation units for this species are the two subspecies of the tropical North and South Atlantic Oceans and that of Europa Island in the Indian Ocean.

Leveraging Motivations, Personality, and Sensory Cues for Vertebrate Pest Management.

Managing vertebrate pests is a global conservation challenge given their undesirable socio-ecological impacts. Pest management often focuses on the 'average' individual, neglecting individual-level behavioural variation ('personalities') and differences in life histories. These differences affect pest impacts and modify attraction to, or avoidance of, sensory cues. Strategies targeting the average individual may fail to mitigate damage by 'rogues' (individuals causing disproportionate impact) or to target 'recalcitrants' (individuals avoiding standard control measures). Effective management leverages animal behaviours that relate primarily to four core motivations: feeding, fleeing, fighting, and fornication. Management success could be greatly increased by identifying and exploiting individual variation in motivations. We provide explicit suggestions for cue-based tools to manipulate these four motivators, thereby improving pest management outcomes.

Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment.

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Treating Cancer as an Invasive Species.

To cure a patient's cancer is to eradicate invasive cells from the ecosystem of the body. However, the ecologic complexity of this challenge is not well understood. Here we show how results from eradications of invasive mammalian species from islands-one of the few contexts in which invasive species have been regularly cleared-inform new research directions for treating cancer. We first summarize the epidemiologic characteristics of island invader eradications and cancer treatments by analyzing recent datasets from the Database of Invasive Island Species Eradications and The Cancer Genome Atlas, detailing the superior successes of island eradication projects. Next, we compare how genetic and environmental factors impact success in each system. These comparisons illuminate a number of promising cancer research and treatment directions, such as heterogeneity engineering as motivated by gene drives and adaptive therapy; multiscale analyses of how population heterogeneity potentiates treatment resistance; and application of ecological data mining techniques to high-throughput cancer data. We anticipate that interdisciplinary comparisons between tumor progression and invasive species would inspire development of novel paradigms to cure cancer.

A 4-Yr Survey of the Range of Ticks and Tick-Borne Pathogens in the Lehigh Valley Region of Eastern Pennsylvania.

Questing ticks were surveyed by dragging in forested habitats within the Lehigh Valley region of eastern Pennsylvania for four consecutive summers (2015-2018). A high level of inter-annual variation was found in the density of blacklegged tick nymphs, Ixodes scapularis Say, with a high density of host-seeking nymphs (DON) in summer 2015 and 2017 and a relatively low DON in summer 2016 and 2018. Very few American dog ticks (Dermacentor variabilis Say) and Ixodes cookei Packard were collected. Lone star ticks (Amblyomma americanum L.) and longhorned ticks (Haemaphysalis longicornis Neumann) were not represented among the 6,398 ticks collected. For tick-borne pathogen surveillance, DNA samples from 1,721 I. scapularis nymphs were prepared from specimens collected in summers 2015-2017 and screened using qPCR, high resolution melting analysis, and DNA sequencing when necessary. The overall 3-yr nymphal infection prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi was 24.8%, Borrelia miyamotoi was 0.3%, Anaplasma phagocytophilum variant-ha was 0.8%, and Babesia microti was 2.8%. Prevalence of coinfection with B. burgdorferi and B. microti as well as B. burgdorferi and A. phagocytophilum variant-ha were significantly higher than would be expected by independent infection. B. burgdorferi nymphal infection prevalence is similar to what other studies have found in the Hudson Valley region of New York, but levels of B. microti and A. phagocytophilum variant-ha nymphal infection prevalence are relatively lower. This study reinforces the urgent need for continued tick and pathogen surveillance in the Lehigh Valley region.

New measures for evaluation of environmental perturbations using Before-After-Control-Impact analyses.

Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) designs are powerful tools to derive inferences about environmental perturbations (e.g., hurricanes, restoration programs) when controlled experimental designs are unfeasible. Applications of BACI designs mostly rely on testing for a significant interaction between periods and treatments (so-called BACI contrast) to demonstrate the effects of the perturbation. However, significant interactions can emerge for several reasons, including when changes are larger in control sites, such that additional diagnostics must be performed to determine the full complexity of system changes. We propose two measures that detail the nature of change implied by BACI contrasts, along with its uncertainty. CI-divergence (Control-Impact divergence) quantifies to what extent control and impact sites have diverged between the after and the before period, whereas CI-contribution (Control-Impact contribution) quantifies to what extent the change between periods is stronger in impact sites relative to control sites. To illustrate how these two CI measures can be combined with BACI contrast to gain insights about effects of environmental perturbations, we used count data from the Swedish Breeding Bird Survey to investigate how hurricane Gudrun affected the long-term abundances of four bird species in forested areas of southern Sweden. Before-After-Control-Impact contrasts suggested the hurricane affected all four species. However, the values of the two CI measures strongly differed, even among species showing similar BACI contrasts. Those differences highlight qualitatively distinct population trajectories between periods and treatments requiring different ecological explanations. Overall, we show that BACI contrasts do not provide the full story in assessing the effects of environmental perturbations. The two CI measures can be used to assist ecological interpretations, or to specify detailed hypotheses about effects of restoration actions to allow stronger confirmatory inference about their outcomes. By providing a framework to develop more detailed explanations and hypotheses about ecological changes, the two CI measures can improve conclusions and strengthen evidence of effects of conservation actions and impact assessments under BACI designs.

The genomic ancestry, landscape genetics and invasion history of introduced mice in New Zealand.

The house mouse (Mus musculus) provides a fascinating system for studying both the genomic basis of reproductive isolation, and the patterns of human-mediated dispersal. New Zealand has a complex history of mouse invasions, and the living descendants of these invaders have genetic ancestry from all three subspecies, although most are primarily descended from M. m. domesticus. We used the GigaMUGA genotyping array (approximately 135 000 loci) to describe the genomic ancestry of 161 mice, sampled from 34 locations from across New Zealand (and one Australian city-Sydney). Of these, two populations, one in the south of the South Island, and one on Chatham Island, showed complete mitochondrial lineage capture, featuring two different lineages of M. m. castaneus mitochondrial DNA but with only M. m. domesticus nuclear ancestry detectable. Mice in the northern and southern parts of the North Island had small traces (approx. 2-3%) of M. m. castaneus nuclear ancestry, and mice in the upper South Island had approximately 7-8% M. m. musculus nuclear ancestry including some Y-chromosomal ancestry-though no detectable M. m. musculus mitochondrial ancestry. This is the most thorough genomic study of introduced populations of house mice yet conducted, and will have relevance to studies of the isolation mechanisms separating subspecies of mice.

The Rise of Invasive Species Denialism.

Scientific consensus on the negative impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) is increasingly being challenged. Whereas informed scepticism of impacts is important, science denialism is counterproductive. Such denialism arises when uncertainty on impacts is confounded by differences in values. Debates on impacts must take into account both the evidence presented and motivations.

Invasion Biology: Specific Problems and Possible Solutions.

Biological invasions have been unambiguously shown to be one of the major global causes of biodiversity loss. Despite the magnitude of this threat and recent scientific advances, this field remains a regular target of criticism - from outright deniers of the threat to scientists questioning the utility of the discipline. This unique situation, combining internal strife and an unaware society, greatly hinders the progress of invasion biology. It is crucial to identify the specificities of this discipline that lead to such difficulties. We outline here 24 specificities and problems of this discipline and categorize them into four groups: understanding, alerting, supporting, and implementing the issues associated with invasive alien species, and we offer solutions to tackle these problems and push the field forward.

Mechanisms of Comorbidities Associated With the Metabolic Syndrome: Insights from the JCR:LA-cp Corpulent Rat Strain.

Obesity and its metabolic complications have emerged as the epidemic of the new millennia. The use of obese rodent models continues to be a productive component of efforts to understand the concomitant metabolic complications of this disease. In 1978, the JCR:LA-cp rat model was developed with an autosomal recessive corpulent (cp) trait resulting from a premature stop codon in the extracellular domain of the leptin receptor. Rats that are heterozygous for the cp trait are lean-prone, while those that are homozygous (cp/cp) spontaneously display the pathophysiology of obesity as well as a metabolic syndrome (MetS)-like phenotype. Over the years, there have been formidable scientific contributions that have originated from this rat model, much of which has been reviewed extensively up to 2008. The premise of these earlier studies focused on characterizing the pathophysiology of MetS-like phenotype that was spontaneously apparent in this model. The purpose of this review is to highlight areas of recent advancement made possible by this model including; emerging appreciation of the "thrifty gene" hypothesis in the context of obesity, the concept of how chronic inflammation may drive obesogenesis, the impact of acute forms of inflammation to the brain and periphery during chronic obesity, the role of dysfunctional insulin metabolism on lipid metabolism and vascular damage, and the mechanistic basis for altered vascular function as well as novel parallels between the human condition and the female JCR:LA-cp rat as a model for polycystic ovary disease (PCOS).