Effect of Gamification, Financial Incentives, or Both to Increase Physical Activity Among Patients at High Risk of Cardiovascular Events: The BE ACTIVE Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity is associated with a lower risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, but few individuals achieve guideline recommended levels of physical activity. Strategies informed by behavioral economics increase physical activity, but their longer-term effectiveness is uncertain. We sought to determine the effect of behaviorally-designed gamification, loss-framed financial incentives, or the combination on physical activity compared with attention control over 12-month intervention and 6-month post-intervention follow-up periods. METHODS: Between May 2019 and January 2024, participants with clinical ASCVD or 10-year risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death ≥ 7.5% by the pooled cohort equation were enrolled in a pragmatic randomized clinical trial. Participants received a wearable device to track daily steps, established a baseline, selected a step goal increase, and were randomly assigned to control (n = 151), behaviorally-designed gamification (n = 304), loss-framed financial incentives (n = 302), or gamification + financial incentives (n = 305). The trial's primary outcome was change in mean daily steps from baseline through the 12-month intervention period. RESULTS: A total of 1062 patients (mean [SD] age 67 [8], 61% female, 31% non-white) were enrolled. Compared with controls, participants had significantly greater increases in mean daily steps from baseline during the 12-month intervention in the gamification arm (adjusted difference, 538.0; 95% CI, 186.2-889.9; P = 0.0027), financial incentives arm (adjusted difference, 491.8; 95% CI, 139.6-844.1; P = 0.0062), and gamification + financial incentives arm (adjusted difference, 868.0; 95% CI, 516.3-1219.7; P < 0.0001). During 6-month follow-up, physical activity remained significantly greater in the gamification + financial incentives arm than in the control arm (adjusted difference, 576.2; 95% CI, 198.5-954; P = 0.0028) but was not significantly greater in the gamification (adjusted difference, 459.8; 95% CI, 82.0-837.6; P = 0.0171) or financial incentives (adjusted difference, 327.9; 95% CI, -50.2 to 706; P = 0.09) arms, after adjusting for multiple comparisons. CONCLUSIONS: Behaviorally-designed gamification, loss-framed financial incentives, and the combination of both increased physical activity compared with control over a 12-month intervention period, with the largest effect in gamification + financial incentives. These interventions could be a useful component of strategies to reduce cardiovascular risk in high-risk patients.

Estimating the cost of Rh testing and prophylaxis in early pregnancy: A time-driven activity-based costing study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost of Rhesus (Rh) testing and prophylaxis for first-trimester vaginal bleeding in the ambulatory setting. STUDY DESIGN: We used time-driven, activity-based costing to analyze tasks associated with Rh testing and prophylaxis of first-trimester vaginal bleeding at one hospital-based outpatient and two independent reproductive health clinics. At each site, we observed 10 patients undergoing Rh-typing and two patients undergoing Rh prophylaxis. We computed the costs of blood Rh-typing by both fingerstick and phlebotomy, cost of locating previous blood type in the electronic health record (available for 69.8% of hospital-based patients), and costs associated with Rh immune globulin prophylaxis. All costs are reported in 2021 US dollars. RESULTS: The hospital-based clinic reviewed the electronic health record to confirm Rh-status (cost, $26.18 per patient) and performed a phlebotomy, at $47.11 per patient, if none was recorded. The independent clinics typed blood by fingerstick, at a per-patient cost of $4.07. Rh-immune globulin administration costs, including the medication, were similar across facilities, at a mean of $145.66 per patient. Projected yearly costs for testing and prophylaxis were $55,831 for the hospital-based clinic, which was the lowest-volume site, $47,941 for Clinic A, which saw 150 patients/month, and $185,654 for Clinic B, which saw 600 patients/month. CONCLUSIONS: Rh testing and prophylaxis for first-trimester vaginal bleeding generates considerable costs for outpatient facilities, even for Rh-positive patients with a prior blood type on record. IMPLICATIONS: Rh testing and prophylaxis for first-trimester bleeding generate considerable costs even for Rh-positive patients and those with a previously known blood type. These findings highlight the need to reconsider this practice, which is no longer supported by evidence and already safely waived in multiple medical settings in the United States and around the world.

Patient randomised controlled trial of technology enabled strategies to promote treatment adherence in liver transplantation: rationale and design of the TEST trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Liver transplantation is a life-saving procedure for end-stage liver disease. However, post-transplant medication regimens are complex and non-adherence is common. Post-transplant medication non-adherence is associated with graft rejection, which can have long-term adverse consequences. Transplant centres are equipped with clinical staff that monitor patients post-transplant; however, digital health tools and proactive immunosuppression adherence monitoring has potential to improve outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a patient-randomised prospective clinical trial at three transplant centres in the Northeast, Midwest and South to investigate the effects of a remotely administered adherence programme compared with usual care. The programme monitors potential non-adherence largely levering text message prompts and phenotypes the nature of the non-adhere as cognitive, psychological, medical, social or economic. Additional reminders for medications, clinical appointments and routine self-management support are incorporated to promote adherence to the entire medical regimen. The primary study outcome is medication adherence via 24-hour recall; secondary outcomes include additional medication adherence (ASK-12 self-reported scale, regimen knowledge scales, tacrolimus values), quality of life, functional health status and clinical outcomes (eg, days hospitalised). Study implementation, acceptability, feasibility, costs and potential cost-effectiveness will also be evaluated. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The University of Pennsylvania Review Board has approved the study as the single IRB of record (protocol # 849575, V.1.4). Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and summaries will be provided to study funders. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05260268.

Qualitative analysis of a remote monitoring intervention for managing heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is one of the most common reasons for hospital admission and is a major cause of morbidity, mortality, and increasing health care costs. The EMPOWER study was a randomized trial that used remote monitoring technology to track patients' weight and diuretic adherence and a state-of-the-art approach derived from behavioral economics to motivate adherence to the reverse monitoring technology. OBJECTIVE: The goal was to explore patient and clinician perceptions of the program and its impact on perceived health outcomes and better understand why some patients or clinicians did better or worse than others in response to the intervention. APPROACH: This was a retrospective qualitative study utilizing semi-structured interviews with 43 patients and 16 clinicians to understand the trial's processes, reflecting on successes and areas for improvement for future iterations of behavioral economic interventions. KEY RESULTS: Many patients felt supported, and they appreciated the intervention. Many also appreciated the lottery intervention, and while it was not an incentive for enrolling for many respondents, it may have increased adherence during the study. Clinicians felt that the intervention integrated well into their workflow, but the number of alerts was burdensome. Additionally, responses to alerts varied considerably by provider, perhaps because there are no professional guidelines for alerts unaccompanied by severe symptoms. CONCLUSION: Our qualitative analysis indicates potential areas for additional exploration and consideration to design better behavioral economic interventions to improve cardiovascular health outcomes for patients with HF. Patients appreciated lottery incentives for adhering to program requirements; however, many were too far along in their disease progression to benefit from the intervention. Clinicians found the amount and frequency of electronic alerts burdensome and felt they did not improve patient outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02708654.

A Cost Comparison Between Mohs Micrographic Surgery and Conventional Excision for the Treatment of Head and Neck Melanomas In Situ and Thin Melanomas.

BACKGROUND: Variation in operative setting and surgical technique exists when treating specialty site melanomas. There are limited data comparing costs among surgical modalities. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the costs of head and neck melanoma surgery performed with Mohs micrographic surgery or conventional excision in the operating room or office-based settings. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed on patients aged 18 years and older with surgically treated head and neck melanoma in 2 cohorts, an institutional cohort and an insurance claims cohort, for the years 2008-2019. The primary outcome was total cost of care for a surgical encounter, provided in the form of insurance reimbursement data. A generalized linear model was used to adjust for covariates affecting differences between treatment groups. RESULTS: In the institutional and insurance claims cohorts, average adjusted treatment cost was highest in the conventional excision-operating room treatment group, followed by the Mohs surgery and conventional excision-office setting ( p < .001). CONCLUSION: These data demonstrate the important economic role the office-based setting has for head and neck melanoma surgery. This study allows cutaneous oncologic surgeons to better understand the costs of care involved in head and neck melanoma treatment. Cost awareness is important for shared decision-making discussions with patients.

A randomized controlled trial of gamification, financial incentives, or both to increase physical activity among patients with elevated risk for cardiovascular disease: rationale and design of the be active study.

BACKGROUND: Higher levels of physical activity are associated with improvements in cardiovascular health, and consensus guidelines recommend that individuals with or at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) participate in regular physical activity. However, most adults do not achieve recommended levels of physical activity. Concepts from behavioral economics have been used to design scalable interventions that increase physical activity over short time periods, but the longer-term efficacy of these strategies is uncertain. STUDY DESIGN AND OBJECTIVES: BE ACTIVE (NCT03911141) is a pragmatic, virtual, randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate the effectiveness of 3 strategies informed by behavioral economic concepts to increase daily physical activity in patients with established ASCVD or 10-year ASCVD risk > 7.5% who are seen in primary care and cardiology clinics affiliated with the University of Pennsylvania Health System. Patients are contacted by email or text message, and complete enrollment and informed consent on the Penn Way to Health online platform. Patients are then provided with a wearable fitness tracker, establish a baseline daily step count, set a goal to increase daily step count by 33% to 50%, and are randomized 1:2:2:2 to control, gamification, financial incentives, or both gamification and financial incentives. Interventions continue for 12 months, with follow-up for an additional 6 months to evaluate the durability of behavior change. The trial has met its enrollment goal of 1050 participants, with a primary endpoint of change from baseline in daily steps over the 12-month intervention period. Key secondary endpoints include change from baseline in daily steps over the 6-month post-intervention follow-up period and change in moderate to vigorous physical activity over the intervention and follow-up periods. If the interventions prove effective, their effects on life expectancy will be compared with their costs in cost-effectiveness analysis. CONCLUSIONS: BE ACTIVE is a virtual, pragmatic randomized clinical trial powered to demonstrate whether gamification, financial incentives, or both are superior to attention control in increasing physical activity. Its results will have important implications for strategies to promote physical activity in patients with or at risk for ASCVD, as well as for the design and implementation of pragmatic virtual clinical trials within health systems.

Qualitative Analysis of a Remote Monitoring Intervention for Managing Heart Failure.

Background : Heart failure (HF) is one of the most common reasons for hospital admission and is a major cause of morbidity, mortality, and increasing health care costs. The EMPOWER study was a randomized trial that used remote monitoring technology to track patients' weight and diuretic adherence and a state-of-the-art approach derived from behavioral economics to motivate adherence to the reverse monitoring technology. Objective : The goal was to explore patient and clinician perceptions of the program and its impact on health outcomes and better understand why some patients/clinicians did better/worse than others in response to the intervention. Approach : This was a retrospective qualitative study to understand the trial's processes, reflecting on successes and areas for improvement for future iterations of behavioral economic interventions. Key Results: Many patients felt supported, and they appreciated the intervention. Many also appreciated the lottery intervention, and while it was not an incentive for enrolling for many respondents, it may have increased adherence during the study. Clinicians felt that the intervention integrated well into their workflow, but the number of alerts was burdensome. Additionally, responses to alerts varied considerably by provider, perhaps because there are no professional guidelines for alerts unaccompanied by severe symptoms. Conclusion : Those interviews offer insights into the potential reasons for the study's null result and opportunities for improvements in the future. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02708654.

Effect Of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions On COVID-19 Cases And Deaths In Brazil.

Lacking national direction, in 2020 Brazilian states adopted a variety of nonpharmaceutical interventions to combat COVID-19, adjusting their stringency over time. We took advantage of this variation across states and over time to estimate the independent effect of seven interventions on the growth rate ratios of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Panel regressions using daily data from March to December 2020 for twelve states show that two interventions, suspension of public events and masking mandates, significantly reduced the spread of the disease. Partial and full suspension of public events were equally effective. Full masking mandates were more effective than partial ones. Together, suspension of public events and full masking mandates reduced the growth rate ratios of both cases and deaths almost to 1, the point at which cases and deaths are no longer increasing. Policy makers may find this analysis useful as they aim to choose the most effective nonpharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19's social and economic burdens.

Remote Monitoring and Behavioral Economics in Managing Heart Failure in Patients Discharged From the Hospital: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Close remote monitoring of patients following discharge for heart failure (HF) may reduce readmissions or death. Objective: To determine whether remote monitoring of diuretic adherence and weight changes with financial incentives reduces hospital readmissions or death following discharge with HF. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Electronic Monitoring of Patients Offers Ways to Enhance Recovery (EMPOWER) study, a 3-hospital pragmatic trial, randomized 552 adults recently discharged with HF to usual care (n = 280) or a compound intervention (n = 272) designed to inform clinicians of diuretic adherence and changes in patient weight. Patients were recruited from May 25, 2016, to April 8, 2019, and followed up for 12 months. Investigators were blinded to assignment but patients were not. Analysis was by intent to treat. Interventions: Participants randomized to the intervention arm received digital scales, electronic pill bottles for diuretic medication, and regret lottery incentives conditional on the previous day's adherence to both medication and weight measurement, with $1.40 expected daily value. Participants' physicians were alerted if participants' weights increased 1.4 kg in 24 hours or 2.3 kg in 72 hours or if diuretic medications were missed for 5 days. Alerts and weights were integrated into the electronic health record. Participants randomized to the control arm received usual care and no further study contact. Main Outcomes and Measures: Time to death or readmission for any cause within 12 months. Results: Of the 552 participants, 290 were men (52.5%); 291 patients (52.7%) were Black, 231 were White (41.8%), and 16 were Hispanic (2.9%); mean (SD) age was 64.5 (11.8) years. The mean (SD) ejection fraction was 43% (18.1%). Each month, approximately 75% of participants were 80% adherent to both medication and weight measurement. There were 423 readmissions and 26 deaths in the control group and 377 readmissions and 23 deaths in the intervention group. There was no significant difference between the 2 groups for the combined outcome of all-cause inpatient readmission or death (unadjusted hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.74-1.13; P = .40) and no significant differences in all-cause inpatient readmission or observation stay or death, all-cause cardiovascular readmission or death, time to first event, and total all-cause deaths. Participants in the intervention group were slightly more likely to spend fewer days in the hospital. Conclusions and Relevance: In this randomized clinical trial, there was no reduction in the combined outcome of readmission or mortality in a year-long intensive remote monitoring program with incentives for patients previously hospitalized for HF. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02708654.

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the 27 Brazilian states.

BACKGROUND: Despite substantial evidence on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), there is still limited evidence on the individual effects of different types of NPIs on social distancing, especially in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We used panel data analysis to evaluate the effects of mandatory social distancing rules on social distancing. We obtained data on six different categories of mandatory restrictions implemented in Brazil, by date and state, from state government gazettes (diários oficiais). We then defined a social distancing rules index (SDI) to measure the strictness of social distancing rules, assigning each a value of 2, 1, or 0 depending on whether restrictions were full, partial, or very limited/non-existent at every given time. A separate variable was defined for masking mandates. We tested whether the following variables were associated to social distancing: SDI, masking mandates, COVID-19 incidence, population socioeconomic status, and political orientation. Data is for each day between March 11th and November 10th, 2020 in the 27 Brazilian states (N = 6615). FINDINGS: Social distancing increased when social distancing rules were stricter, and decreased when the use of face masks became mandatory. The effects of different types of restrictions varied: suspending in-person classes and gatherings, religious/sport/cultural activities had a greater effect than other types of restrictions. Also, the effect of social distancing rules on people's behaviour decreased over time, especially when rules were stricter. INTERPRETATION: Mandatory social distancing rules must be adopted to increase social distancing. Stricter rules have a higher impact, but result in decreased compliance over time. Policymakers should prioritize more targeted policies.

The Electronic Health Record as the Primary Data Source in a Pragmatic Trial: A Case Study.

HIGHLIGHTS: Electronic health records are not a single system but a series of overlapping and legacy systems that require time and expertise to use efficiently.Commonly measured patient characteristics such as weight and body mass index are relatively easy to locate for most trial enrollees but less common characteristics, like ejection fraction, are not.Acquiring essential supplementary data-in this trial, state data on hospital admission-can be a lengthy and difficult process.

Effect of Financial Incentives for Process, Outcomes, or Both on Cholesterol Level Change: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Financial incentives may improve health behaviors. It is unknown whether incentives are more effective if they target a key process (eg, medication adherence), an outcome (eg, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C] levels), or both. Objective: To determine whether financial incentives awarded daily for process (adherence to statins), awarded quarterly for outcomes (personalized LDL-C level targets), or awarded for process plus outcomes induce reductions in LDL-C levels compared with control. Design, Setting, and Participants: A randomized clinical trial was conducted from February 12, 2015, to October 3, 2018; data analysis was performed from October 4, 2018, to May 27, 2021, at the University of Pennsylvania Health System, Philadelphia. Participants included 764 adults with an active statin prescription, elevated risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, suboptimal LDL-C level, and evidence of imperfect adherence to statin medication. Interventions: Interventions lasted 12 months. All participants received a smart pill bottle to measure adherence and underwent LDL-C measurement every 3 months. In the process group, daily financial incentives were awarded for statin adherence. In the outcomes group, participants received incentives for achieving or sustaining at least a quarterly 10-mg/dL LDL-C level reduction. The process plus outcomes group participants were eligible for incentives split between statin adherence and quarterly LDL-C level targets. Main Outcomes and Measures: Change in LDL-C level from baseline to 12 months, determined using intention-to-treat analysis. Results: Of the 764 participants, 390 were women (51.2%); mean (SD) age was 62.4 (10.0) years, 310 (40.6%) had diabetes, 298 (39.0%) had hypertension, and mean (SD) baseline LDL-C level was 138.8 (37.6) mg/dL. Mean LDL-C level reductions from baseline to 12 months were -36.9 mg/dL (95% CI, -42.0 to -31.9 mg/dL) among control participants, -40.0 mg/dL (95% CI, -44.7 to -35.4 mg/dL) among process participants, -41.6 mg/dL (95% CI, -46.3 to -37.0 mg/dL) among outcomes participants, and -42.8 mg/dL (95% CI, -47.4 to -38.1 mg/dL) among process plus outcomes participants. In exploratory analysis among participants with diabetes and hypertension, no spillover effects of incentives were detected compared with the control group on hemoglobin A1c level and blood pressure over 12 months. Conclusions and Relevance: In this randomized clinical trial, process-, outcomes-, or process plus outcomes-based financial incentives did not improve LDL-C levels vs control. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02246959.

Qualitative Exploration of Barriers to Statin Adherence and Lipid Control: A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Financial incentives may improve health by rewarding patients for focusing on present actions-such as medication regimen adherence-that provide longer-term health benefits. Objective: To identify barriers to improving statin therapy adherence and control of cholesterol levels with financial incentives and insights for the design of future interventions. Design, Setting, and Participants: This qualitative study involved retrospective interviews with participants in a preplanned secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial of financial incentives for statin therapy adherence. A total of 636 trial participants from several US insurer or employer populations and an academic health system were rank ordered by change in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLC) levels. Participants with the most LDLC level improvement (high-improvement group) and those with LDLC levels that did not improve (nonimprovement group) were purposively targeted, stratified across all trial groups, for semistructured telephone interviews that were performed from April 1 to June 30, 2018. Interviews were coded using a team-based, iterative approach. Data were analyzed from July 1, 2018, to October 31, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was mean change in LDLC level from baseline to 12 months; the secondary outcome, statin therapy adherence during the first 6 months. Results: A total of 54 patients were interviewed, divided equally between high-improvement and nonimprovement groups, with a mean (SD) age of 43.5 (10.3) years; 36 (66.7%) were women, 28 (51.9%) had diabetes, and 18 (33.3%) had cardiovascular disease. Compared with the high-improvement group, the nonimprovement group had fewer interviewees with an annual income of greater than $50 000 (11 [40.7%] vs 22 [81.5%]), worse self-reported health (fair to poor, 13 [48.1%] vs 3 [11.1%]), more Black interviewees (16 [59.3%] vs 4 [14.8%]), and lower baseline LDLC levels (>160 mg/dL, 2 [7.4%] vs 25 [92.6%]). Participants in the nonimprovement group had a greater burden of chronic illness (≥2 chronic conditions, 13 [48.1%] vs 6 [22.2%]) and were less frequently employed (full-time, 6 [22.2%] vs 12 [44.4%]). In interviews, the nonimprovement group was less focused on risks of high LDLC levels, described less engagement in LDLC level management, articulated fewer specific nutritional choices for optimizing health, and recounted greater difficulty obtaining healthy food. Participants in both groups had difficulty describing the structure of the financial incentives but did recall features of the electronic pill containers used to track adherence and how those containers affected medication routines. Conclusions and Relevance: Participants in a statin adherence trial whose LDLC levels did not improve found it more difficult to create medication routines and respond to financial incentives in the context of complex living conditions and a high burden of chronic illness. These findings suggest that future studies should be more attentive to socioeconomic circumstances of trial participants. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01798784.

Cost-Effectiveness of Four Financial Incentive Programs for Smoking Cessation.

Rationale: A trial of four financial incentive programs, conducted at CVS Caremark, a large employer, documented their effectiveness in promoting sustained abstinence from smoking, but their cost-effectiveness is unknown, and the significant up-front cost of the incentives is a deterrent to their adoption. Objectives: To determine the cost-effectiveness of these incentives from the healthcare sector and employer perspectives. Methods: This study examines a decision model built with trial data, supplemented by data from the literature. Life-expectancy gains for quitters were projected on the basis of U.S. life tables. The two individual-oriented programs paid $800 for smoking cessation at 6 months; one required participants to deposit $150 at baseline. Payments in the two group-oriented programs varied with the group's success; again, one required participants to deposit $150. Results: Life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs (2012 dollars), and cost-effectiveness ratios are described. From the healthcare sector perspective, costs ranged from $3,200 per life-year ($2,500 per QALY) for the competitive deposit program, compared with usual care, to $6,500 per life-year ($5,100 per QALY) for the individual reward program. From the employer perspective, costs ranged from $256,600 per life-year gained for the individual deposit program to $1,711,100 per life-year gained for the individual reward program; the cost per QALY ranged from $65,300 for the competitive deposit program to $128,800 for the individual reward program. Cost-effectiveness from the employer perspective improved with longer decision horizons. Including future medical costs reduced cost-effectiveness from both perspectives. Conclusions: Four financial incentive programs that paid smokers to quit are very cost-effective from the healthcare sector perspective. They are more expensive from the employer perspective but may be cost-effective for employers with longer decision horizons.

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of maternal pertussis immunization in low- and middle-income countries: A review of lessons learnt.

This issue of Vaccine is devoted to papers from a research project that developed two types of simulation models, static and dynamic transmission, to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of maternal immunization to prevent pertussis in infants in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The research was conducted by a multinational team of investigators and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to gain an understanding of when and where maternal immunization might be a good public health investment for LMICs. Here we review the project's central lessons for vaccine policy and research. Models require a lot of data. As most LMICs lack good data, the models were built using pertussis disease burden data from Brazil, a middle-income country with three long-established, independent information systems (disease surveillance, hospitalization, and mortality), on the hypothesis that the disease process is similar across countries. Values for key parameters, particularly infant mortality, infant vaccine coverage, and costs of vaccination and treatment, were then varied to represent other LMICs. The results show that coverage levels of infant whole cell pertussis (wP) vaccine are key to the cost-effectiveness of maternal pertussis immunization. In settings where infant wP coverage is below the threshold thought necessary to eliminate pertussis in the population, 90-95%, maternal immunization is cost-effective, even cost-saving. By contrast, it is very expensive in countries capable of maintaining infant vaccination in or above the threshold range. The research also suggests that, while static models may serve to explore an intervention's cost-effectiveness initially, dynamic transmission models are essential for more accurate estimates. These findings can help guide policies toward maternal pertussis immunization, but also show that developing better data on neonatal pertussis mortality burden and infant vaccine coverage in LMICs, and on the duration of immunity of currently available pertussis vaccines, are key priorities to support better vaccine policy.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of maternal acellular pertussis immunization (aP) in different socioeconomic settings: A dynamic transmission model of pertussis in three Brazilian states.

OBJECTIVES: Using dynamic transmission models we evaluated the health and cost outcomes of adding acellular pertussis (aP) vaccination of pregnant women to infant vaccination in three Brazilian states that represent different socioeconomic conditions. The primary objective was to determine whether the same model structure could be used to represent pertussis disease dynamics in differing socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: We tested three model structures (SIR, SIRS, SIRSIs) to represent population-level transmission in three socio-demographically distinct Brazilian states: São Paulo, Paraná and Bahia. Two strategies were evaluated: infant wP vaccination alone versus maternal aP immunization plus infant wP vaccination. Model projections for 2014-2029 include outpatient and inpatient pertussis cases, pertussis deaths, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost, and costs (in 2014 USD) of maternal aP vaccination, infant vaccination, and pertussis medical treatment. Incremental cost per DALY averted is presented from the perspective of the Brazilian National Health System. RESULTS: Based on goodness-of-fit statistics, the SIRSIs model fit best, although it had only a modest improvement in statistical quantitative assessments relative to the SIRS model. For all three Brazilian states, maternal aP immunization led to higher costs but also saved infant lives and averted DALYs. The 2014 USD cost/DALY averted was $3068 in Sao Paulo, $2962 in Parana, and $2022 in Bahia. These results were robust in sensitivity analyses with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios exceeding per capita gross regional product only when the probability that a pertussis case is reported was assumed higher than base case implying more overt cases and deaths and therefore more medical costs. CONCLUSIONS: The same model structure fit all three states best, supporting the idea that the disease behaves similarly across different socioeconomic conditions. We also found that immunization of pregnant women with aP is cost-effective in diverse Brazilian states.

The data used to build the models: Pertussis morbidity and mortality burden considering various Brazilian data sources.

BACKGROUND: Pertussis is associated with significant disease burden in children worldwide. In addition to its cyclical nature, resurgences of pertussis cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been reported by many countries. We describe the dynamics of pertussis in Brazil, a middle-income country that has experienced a resurgence and that provides good quality data to allow building a dynamic transmission disease model. METHODS: We conducted a descriptive analysis of pertussis burden considering data from the national disease surveillance system, national hospitalization information system and national mortality registry. Study period was 2000-2016. Absolute numbers and rates per 100,000 inhabitants over time, by age sub-groups and geographical regions are presented. RESULTS: From 2000 to 2016, a total of 37,299 reported pertussis cases, 25,240 hospitalizations, and 601 deaths due to pertussis were reported. Although the outcomes - pertussis cases, hospitalizations, and deaths - come from independent information systems, our results document low disease burden with periodic increases every 3-4 years during the years 2000-2010, followed by a sharp increase which peaked in 2014. In both periods, disease burden is concentrated in young children, while its more serious outcomes - hospitalizations and deaths, are concentrated in infants. Pre-outbreak and outbreak disease burden as well as timing of peak during the outbreak period vary by states and within geographical regions, representing valuable resources of data for modelling purposes. CONCLUSION: Consistent disease burden patterns were observed over time in Brazil using a variety of data sources. Given the scarcity of good epidemiological data on pertussis available from low- and middle-income countries, our reported data provide valuable information for the assessment of the public health impact and cost-effectiveness modelling studies of newer strategies to prevent and control pertussis. These data were used to build and calibrate a national dynamic transmission model, which was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of maternal immunization. Clinical Trial registry name and registration number: Not applicable.

Cost-effectiveness of maternal pertussis immunization: Implications of a dynamic transmission model for low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of maternal acellular pertussis (aP) immunization in low- and middle-income countries using a dynamic transmission model. METHODS: We developed a dynamic transmission model to simulate the impact of infant vaccination with whole-cell pertussis (wP) vaccine with and without maternal aP immunization. The model was calibrated to Brazilian surveillance data and then used to project health outcomes and costs under alternative strategies in Brazil, and, after adjusting model parameter values to reflect their conditions, in Nigeria and Bangladesh. The primary measure of cost-effectiveness is incremental cost (2014 USD) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY). RESULTS: The dynamic model shows that maternal aP immunization would be cost-effective in Brazil, a middle-income country, under the base-case assumptions, but would be very expensive at infant vaccination coverage in and above the threshold range necessary to eliminate the disease (90-95%). At 2007 infant coverage (DTP1 90%, DTP3 61% at 1 year of age), maternal immunization would cost < $4,000 per DALY averted. At high infant coverage, such as Brazil in 1996 (DTP1 94%, DTP3 74% at 1 year), cost/DALY increases to $1.27 million. When the model's time horizon was extended from 2030 to 2100, cost/DALY increased under both infant coverage levels, but more steeply with high coverage. The results were moderately sensitive to discount rate, maternal vaccine price, and maternal aP coverage and were robust using the 100 best-fitting parameter sets. Scenarios representing low-income countries showed that maternal aP immunization could be cost-saving in countries with low infant coverage, such as Nigeria, but very expensive in countries, such as Bangladesh, with high infant coverage. CONCLUSION: A dynamic model, which captures the herd immunity benefits of pertussis vaccination, shows that, in low- and middle-income countries, maternal aP immunization is cost-effective when infant vaccination coverage is moderate, even cost-saving when it is low, but not cost-effective when coverage levels pass 90-95%.