Metapopulation effective size and conservation genetic goals for the Fennoscandian wolf (Canis lupus) population.

The Scandinavian wolf population descends from only five individuals, is isolated, highly inbred and exhibits inbreeding depression. To meet international conservation goals, suggestions include managing subdivided wolf populations over Fennoscandia as a metapopulation; a genetically effective population size of Ne⩾500, in line with the widely accepted long-term genetic viability target, might be attainable with gene flow among subpopulations of Scandinavia, Finland and Russian parts of Fennoscandia. Analytical means for modeling Ne of subdivided populations under such non-idealized situations have been missing, but we recently developed new mathematical methods for exploring inbreeding dynamics and effective population size of complex metapopulations. We apply this theory to the Fennoscandian wolves using empirical estimates of demographic parameters. We suggest that the long-term conservation genetic target for metapopulations should imply that inbreeding rates in the total system and in the separate subpopulations should not exceed Δf=0.001. This implies a meta-Ne of NeMeta⩾500 and a realized effective size of each subpopulation of NeRx⩾500. With current local effective population sizes and one migrant per generation, as recommended by management guidelines, the meta-Ne that can be reached is ~250. Unidirectional gene flow from Finland to Scandinavia reduces meta-Ne to ~130. Our results indicate that both local subpopulation effective sizes and migration among subpopulations must increase substantially from current levels to meet the conservation target. Alternatively, immigration from a large (Ne⩾500) population in northwestern Russia could support the Fennoscandian metapopulation, but immigration must be substantial (5-10 effective immigrants per generation) and migration among Fennoscandian subpopulations must nevertheless increase.

Estimation of effective population size in continuously distributed populations: there goes the neighborhood.

Use of genetic methods to estimate effective population size (Ne) is rapidly increasing, but all approaches make simplifying assumptions unlikely to be met in real populations. In particular, all assume a single, unstructured population, and none has been evaluated for use with continuously distributed species. We simulated continuous populations with local mating structure, as envisioned by Wright's concept of neighborhood size (NS), and evaluated performance of a single-sample estimator based on linkage disequilibrium (LD), which provides an estimate of the effective number of parents that produced the sample (Nb). Results illustrate the interacting effects of two phenomena, drift and mixture, that contribute to LD. Samples from areas equal to or smaller than a breeding window produced estimates close to the NS. As the sampling window increased in size to encompass multiple genetic neighborhoods, mixture LD from a two-locus Wahlund effect overwhelmed the reduction in drift LD from incorporating offspring from more parents. As a consequence, never approached the global Ne, even when the geographic scale of sampling was large. Results indicate that caution is needed in applying standard methods for estimating effective size to continuously distributed populations.

Genetic monitoring reveals temporal stability over 30 years in a small, lake-resident brown trout population.

Knowledge of the degree of temporal stability of population genetic structure and composition is important for understanding microevolutionary processes and addressing issues of human impact of natural populations. We know little about how representative single samples in time are to reflect population genetic constitution, and we explore the temporal genetic variability patterns over a 30-year period of annual sampling of a lake-resident brown trout (Salmo trutta) population, covering 37 consecutive cohorts and five generations. Levels of variation remain largely stable over this period, with no indication of substructuring within the lake. We detect genetic drift, however, and the genetically effective population size (N(e)) was assessed from allele-frequency shifts between consecutive cohorts using an unbiased estimator that accounts for the effect of overlapping generation. The overall mean N(e) is estimated as 74. We find indications that N(e) varies over time, but there is no obvious temporal trend. We also estimated N(e) using a one-sample approach based on linkage disequilibrium (LD) that does not account for the effect of overlapping generations. Combining one-sample estimates for all years gives an N(e) estimate of 76. This similarity between estimates may be coincidental or reflecting a general robustness of the LD approach to violations of the discrete generations assumption. In contrast to the observed genetic stability, body size and catch per effort have increased over the study period. Estimates of annual effective number of breeders (N(b)) correlated with catch per effort, suggesting that genetic monitoring can be used for detecting fluctuations in abundance.

Census (N C) and genetically effective (N e) population size in a lake-resident population of brown trout Salmo trutta.

Census (N(C)) and effective population size (N(e)) were estimated for a lake-resident population of brown trout Salmo trutta as 576 and 63, respectively. The point estimate of the ratio of effective to census population size (N(e):N(C)) for this population is 0.11 with a range of 0.06-0.26, suggesting that N(e):N(C) ratio for lake-resident populations agree more with estimates for fishes with anadromous life histories than the small ratios observed in many marine fishes.

Genetic population structure of perch Perca fluviatilis along the Swedish coast of the Baltic Sea.

In this study, the genetic variation of perch Perca fluviatilis from 18 different sites along the Swedish coast of the Baltic Sea was assessed. There was a relative strong support for isolation by distance and the results suggest an overall departure from panmixia. The level of genetic divergence was moderate (global F(ST) = 0·04) and indications of differences in the population genetic structure between the two major basins (central Baltic Sea and Gulf of Bothnia) in the Baltic Sea were found. There was a higher level of differentiation in the central Baltic Sea compared to the Gulf of Bothnia, and the results suggest that stretches of deep water might act as barriers to gene flow in the species. On the basis of the estimation of genetic patch size, the results corroborate previous mark--recapture studies and suggest that this is a species suitable for local management. In all, the findings of this study emphasize the importance of considering regional differences even when strong isolation by distance characterize the genetic population structure of species.

Detecting population structure in a high gene-flow species, Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus): direct, simultaneous evaluation of neutral vs putatively selected loci.

In many marine fish species, genetic population structure is typically weak because populations are large, evolutionarily young and have a high potential for gene flow. We tested whether genetic markers influenced by natural selection are more efficient than the presumed neutral genetic markers to detect population structure in Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), a migratory pelagic species with large effective population sizes. We compared the spatial and temporal patterns of divergence and statistical power of three traditional genetic marker types, microsatellites, allozymes and mitochondrial DNA, with one microsatellite locus, Cpa112, previously shown to be influenced by divergent selection associated with salinity, and one locus located in the major histocompatibility complex class IIA (MHC-IIA) gene, using the same individuals across analyses. Samples were collected in 2002 and 2003 at two locations in the North Sea, one location in the Skagerrak and one location in the low-saline Baltic Sea. Levels of divergence for putatively neutral markers were generally low, with the exception of single outlier locus/sample combinations; microsatellites were the most statistically powerful markers under neutral expectations. We found no evidence of selection acting on the MHC locus. Cpa112, however, was highly divergent in the Baltic samples. Simulations addressing the statistical power for detecting population divergence showed that when using Cpa112 alone, compared with using eight presumed neutral microsatellite loci, sample sizes could be reduced by up to a tenth while still retaining high statistical power. Our results show that the loci influenced by selection can serve as powerful markers for detecting population structure in high gene-flow marine fish species.

Temporally stable genetic structure of heavily exploited Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in Swedish waters.

Information on the temporal stability of genetic structures is important to permit detection of changes that can constitute threats to biological resources. Large-scale harvesting operations are known to potentially alter the composition and reduce the variability of populations, and Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) has a long history of heavy exploitation. In the Baltic Sea and Skagerrak waters, the census population sizes have declined by 35-50% over the last three decades. We compared the genetic structure of Atlantic herring in these waters sampled at least two different times between 1979 and 2003 by assaying 11 allozyme and nine microsatellite loci. We cannot detect any changes in the amount of genetic variation or spatial structure, and differentiation is weak with overall F(ST)=0.003 among localities for the older samples and F(ST)=0.002 for the newer ones. There are indications of temporal allele frequency changes, particularly in one of five sampling localities that is reflected in a relatively small local N(e) estimate of c. 400. The previously identified influence of selection at the microsatellite locus Cpa112 remains stable over the 24-year period studied here. Despite little genetic differentiation, migration among localities appears small enough to permit demographic independence between populations.

Lack of molecular genetic divergence between sea-ranched and wild sea trout (Salmo trutta).

The supportive breeding programme for sea trout (Salmo trutta) in the River Dalälven, Sweden, is based on a sea-ranched hatchery stock of local origin that has been kept 'closed' to the immigration of wild genes since the late 1960s (about seven generations). In spite of an apparent potential for substantial uni directional gene flow from sea-ranched to wild (naturally produced) trout, phenotypic differences with a presumed genetic basis have previously been observed between the two 'stocks'. Likewise, two previous studies of allozyme and mitochondrial DNA variation based on a single year of sampling have indicated genetic differentiation. In the present study we used microsatellite and allozyme data collected over four consecutive years, and tested for the existence of overall genetic stock divergence while accounting for temporal heterogeneity. Statistical analyses of allele frequency variation (F-statistics) and multilocus genotypes (assignment tests) revealed that wild and sea-ranched trout were significantly different in three of four years, whereas no overall genetic divergence could be found when temporal heterogeneity among years within stocks was accounted for. On the basis of estimates of effective population size in the two stocks, and of FST between them, we also assessed the level of gene flow from sea-ranched to wild trout to be approximately 80% per generation (with a lower confidence limit of approximately 20%). The results suggest that the reproductive success of hatchery and naturally produced trout may be quite similar in the wild, and that the genetic characteristics of the wild stock are largely determined by introgressed genes from sea-ranched fish.

Statistical power when testing for genetic differentiation.

A variety of statistical procedures are commonly employed when testing for genetic differentiation. In a typical situation two or more samples of individuals have been genotyped at several gene loci by molecular or biochemical means, and in a first step a statistical test for allele frequency homogeneity is performed at each locus separately, using, e.g. the contingency chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, or some modification thereof. In a second step the results from the separate tests are combined for evaluation of the joint null hypothesis that there is no allele frequency difference at any locus, corresponding to the important case where the samples would be regarded as drawn from the same statistical and, hence, biological population. Presently, there are two conceptually different strategies in use for testing the joint null hypothesis of no difference at any locus. One approach is based on the summation of chi-square statistics over loci. Another method is employed by investigators applying the Bonferroni technique (adjusting the P-value required for rejection to account for the elevated alpha errors when performing multiple tests simultaneously) to test if the heterogeneity observed at any particular locus can be regarded significant when considered separately. Under this approach the joint null hypothesis is rejected if one or more of the component single locus tests is considered significant under the Bonferroni criterion. We used computer simulations to evaluate the statistical power and realized alpha errors of these strategies when evaluating the joint hypothesis after scoring multiple loci. We find that the 'extended' Bonferroni approach generally is associated with low statistical power and should not be applied in the current setting. Further, and contrary to what might be expected, we find that 'exact' tests typically behave poorly when combined in existing procedures for joint hypothesis testing. Thus, while exact tests are generally to be preferred over approximate ones when testing each particular locus, approximate tests such as the traditional chi-square seem preferable when addressing the joint hypothesis.

Demographic genetics of brown trout (Salmo trutta) and estimation of effective population size from temporal change of allele frequencies.

We studied temporal allele frequency shifts over 15 years and estimated the genetically effective size of four natural populations of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) on the basis of the variation at 14 polymorphic allozyme loci. The allele frequency differences between consecutive cohorts were significant in all four populations. There were no indications of natural selection, and we conclude that random genetic drift is the most likely cause of temporal allele frequency shifts at the loci examined. Effective population sizes were estimated from observed allele frequency shifts among cohorts, taking into consideration the demographic characteristics of each population. The estimated effective sizes of the four populations range from 52 to 480 individuals, and we conclude that the effective size of natural brown trout populations may differ considerably among lakes that are similar in size and other apparent characteristics. In spite of their different effective sizes all four populations have similar levels of genetic variation (average heterozygosity) indicating that excessive loss of genetic variability has been retarded, most likely because of gene flow among neighboring populations.

Temporal allele frequency change and estimation of effective size in populations with overlapping generations.

In this paper we study the process of allele frequency change in finite populations with overlapping generations with the purpose of evaluating the possibility of estimating the effective size from observations of temporal frequency shifts of selectively neutral alleles. Focusing on allele frequency changes between successive cohorts (individuals born in particular years), we show that such changes are not determined by the effective population size alone, as they are when generations are discrete. Rather, in populations with overlapping generations, the amount of temporal allele frequency change is dependent on the age-specific survival and birth rates. Taking this phenomenon into account, we present an estimator for effective size that can be applied to populations with overlapping generations.

Allele frequency estimation at loci with incomplete co-dominant expression.

Although allelic variants at a locus usually are expressed either dominantly or co-dominantly, there are many cases when a gene is dominantly expressed in some individuals and co-dominantly in others. We present a maximum-likelihood procedure for allele frequency estimation in such situations of "incomplete" co-dominant gene expression at an autosomal locus that segregates for two alleles. Our proposed estimator generally is less biased and has a smaller sampling variance than those previously described.

Silencing of duplicate genes: a null allele polymorphism for lactate dehydrogenase in brown trout (Salmo trutta).

A previously described isozyme polymorphism at one of two skeletal muscle LdhA loci in brown trout is due to a null allele, Ldh1(n), producing no detectable catalytic activity. Homozygotes for this allele have approximately only 56% of the LDH activity in skeletal muscle relative to homozygotes for the active allele. The remaining activity results from enzyme subunits produced by other LDH loci. The Ldh1(n) allele is common and widespread throughout brown trout populations in Sweden and is also found in populations from Ireland. The persistence of duplicate gene expression for the LdhA loci in almost all salmonid species is best explained by natural selection against individuals containing null alleles. However, there is no indication of natural selection against brown trout with the Ldh1(n) allele: We suggest that the selection against individuals containing null alleles that is apparently responsible for the persistence of duplicate LdhA loci in salmonids occurs only under certain environmental conditions.

The distribution of the paternity index as a basis for evaluation of sequential testing in paternity analysis.

Several procedures for evaluation of paternity testing data have been suggested in the literature, the majority of them being based on the paternity index statistic (L) or some transform of it. A major problem has been that the true distribution of the paternity index has not been known, making it difficult to perform quantitative evaluations of different procedures. We present an algorithm for computation of the distribution of the paternity index within the limits of a completely controlled amount of approximation. Using this algorithm we evaluate the power and the rate of erroneous classifications of a standard routine test based on a fixed number of genetic marker systems. The efficiency of this standard test procedure is compared to a stepwise (sequential) procedure where in each step one or several marker systems are scored for the mother-child-putative father trio. We suggest that a sequential strategy for testing may be more efficient than one that is based on a fixed number of systems. A sequential procedure can provide information about the accused man's state of paternity in a considerably larger fraction of cases without a substantial increase of the frequency of incorrect classifications. In addition, the cost measured as the average number of marker systems that has to be tested for each trio may be lower in the case of sequential testing than with a fixed number of systems.

Genetic differentiation in four European subspecies of red deer (Cervus elaphus L.).

Red deer representing the four different European subspecies Cervus elaphus atlanticus, C. e. elaphus, C. e. germanicus, and C. e. scoticus were examined for allozyme variability at 35 enzyme loci. The proportion of polymorphic loci within populations (P) ranged from 0 to 13.8 per cent and the average heterozygosity (H) from 0 to 3.6 per cent. These estimates are within the range previously observed among mammalian species. Significant allele frequency differences were found both within and between subspecies. The mean genetic distance between subspecies (D = 0.0164) was smaller than the differentiation at similar taxonomic levels among other ungulates, probably because of a shorter time since divergence. Within subspecies the genetic differences between populations were similar to those reported between populations within closely related species in the same geographic region. Cluster analysis based on genetic distances indicated a major genetic dichotomy between the British C. e. scoticus and the Norwegian C. e. atlanticus on one hand and the Swedish C. e. elaphus and the continental C. e. germanicus on the other. Populations of pure C. e. elaphus were not found to differ genetically in any substantial way from Swedish populations of possible heterogeneous subspecific origin. An allele unique to C. e. scoticus was found in a Swedish enclosed population where imports of British deer are known to have taken place. A population established to preserve the genetic characteristics of the C. e. elaphus subspecies appeared to have lost 36 per cent of the electrophoretically measurable heterozygosity.

Differences in the relative distribution of human gene diversity between electrophoretic and red and white cell antigen loci.

Gene frequency data for 25 loci (2 HLA loci, 9 blood group loci, and 14 electrophoretically detectable loci) were collected from the literature of 18 human populations from all over the world. The data were subjected to a hierarchical gene diversity analysis to provide an estimate of the relative distribution of genetic variation between and within populations and population groups for different types of loci. Two different ways of grouping the populations, i.e., according to anthropological criteria and to a cluster analysis based on gene frequency data, gave essentially the same results. For all loci combined approximately 86% of total gene diversity was found within populations, 3% was associated with differences between populations within groups, and 11% related to group differences. These results are very similar to those obtained in previous studies based on fewer loci and different sets of populations. The distribution of genetic variation is different for different types of loci. The HLA loci give a picture very similar to that of the electrophoretic loci while the blood group loci have a substantially larger fraction of the total gene diversity distributed between populations or population groups.