Imaging Changes and Outcomes of Patients Undergoing Active Monitoring for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ: Seven-Year Follow-up Study.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: To determine the imaging changes and their associated positive predictive value (PPV) for invasive breast cancer in women undergoing active monitoring for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this seven-year follow-up retrospective IRB-exempted cohort study, we reviewed patients diagnosed with DCIS who elected active monitoring between 2003 and 2022 at a single academic institution. Imaging characteristics, histopathology at initial diagnosis, and subsequent follow-up were recorded. Low-risk DCIS was defined as low or intermediate grade and hormone receptor (HR) positive (estrogen and/or progesterone receptor positive) disease diagnosed in women at least 40 years of age. Progression was defined as subsequent ipsilateral invasive breast cancer diagnosis. RESULTS: There were 39 patients with a median age of 58.4 years (IQR: 51.1-69.6 years) and a median follow-up of 4.3 years (range: 0.6-16.4 years). Nearly two thirds of patients (64%, 25/39) had stable imaging (range: 0.6-16.4 years) and remained progression-free during active monitoring. Among the remaining 14 patients (36%), there were 24 imaging findings which prompted 22 subsequent core needle biopsies (range: 1-3 biopsies per patient) and two surgical biopsies. The PPV of invasive cancer was 29% (7/24) overall and 38% (3/8) for masses, 33% (3/9) for calcifications, 17% (1/6) for non-mass enhancement, and 0% (0/1) for architectural distortion. CONCLUSION: Of the radiographic changes prompting an additional biopsy, development of a new mass (38%) and new calcifications (33%) had the highest PPV for invasive progression. Close imaging follow-up should be a critical component for patients undergoing monitoring for DCIS.

Association of DCIS size and margin status with risk of developing breast cancer post-treatment: multinational, pooled cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between size and margin status of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and risk of developing ipsilateral invasive breast cancer and ipsilateral DCIS after treatment, and stage and subtype of ipsilateral invasive breast cancer. DESIGN: Multinational, pooled cohort study. SETTING: Four large international cohorts. PARTICIPANTS: Patient level data on 47 695 women with a diagnosis of pure, primary DCIS between 1999 and 2017 in the Netherlands, UK, and US who underwent surgery, either breast conserving or mastectomy, often followed by radiotherapy or endocrine treatment, or both. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcomes were 10 year cumulative incidence of ipsilateral invasive breast cancer and ipsilateral DCIS estimated in relation to DCIS size and margin status, and adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses with multiple imputed data RESULTS: The 10 year cumulative incidence of ipsilateral invasive breast cancer was 3.2%. In women who underwent breast conserving surgery with or without radiotherapy, only adjusted risks for ipsilateral DCIS were significantly increased for larger DCIS (20-49 mm) compared with DCIS <20 mm (hazard ratio 1.38, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 1.72). Risks for both ipsilateral invasive breast cancer and ipsilateral DCIS were significantly higher with involved compared with clear margins (invasive breast cancer 1.40, 1.07 to 1.83; DCIS 1.39, 1.04 to 1.87). Use of adjuvant endocrine treatment was not significantly associated with a lower risk of ipsilateral invasive breast cancer compared to treatment with breast conserving surgery only (0.86, 0.62 to 1.21). In women who received breast conserving treatment with or without radiotherapy, higher DCIS grade was not significantly associated with ipsilateral invasive breast cancer, only with a higher risk of ipsilateral DCIS (grade 1: 1.42, 1.08 to 1.87; grade 3: 2.17, 1.66 to 2.83). Higher age at diagnosis was associated with lower risk (per year) of ipsilateral DCIS (0.98, 0.97 to 0.99) but not ipsilateral invasive breast cancer (1.00, 0.99 to 1.00). Women with large DCIS (≥50 mm) more often developed stage III and IV ipsilateral invasive breast cancer compared to women with DCIS <20 mm. No such association was found between involved margins and higher stage of ipsilateral invasive breast cancer. Associations between larger DCIS and hormone receptor negative and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 positive ipsilateral invasive breast cancer and involved margins and hormone receptor negative ipsilateral invasive breast cancer were found. CONCLUSIONS: The association of DCIS size and margin status with ipsilateral invasive breast cancer and ipsilateral DCIS was small. When these two factors were added to other known risk factors in multivariable models, clinicopathological risk factors alone were found to be limited in discriminating between low and high risk DCIS.

Growth Dynamics of Ductal Carcinoma in Situ Recapitulate Normal Breast Development.

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive breast cancer share many morphologic, proteomic, and genomic alterations. Yet in contrast to invasive cancer, many DCIS tumors do not progress and may remain indolent over decades. To better understand the heterogenous nature of this disease, we reconstructed the growth dynamics of 18 DCIS tumors based on the geo-spatial distribution of their somatic mutations. The somatic mutation topographies revealed that DCIS is multiclonal and consists of spatially discontinuous subclonal lesions. Here we show that this pattern of spread is consistent with a new 'Comet' model of DCIS tumorigenesis, whereby multiple subclones arise early and nucleate the buds of the growing tumor. The discontinuous, multiclonal growth of the Comet model is analogous to the branching morphogenesis of normal breast development that governs the rapid expansion of the mammary epithelium during puberty. The branching morphogenesis-like dynamics of the proposed Comet model diverges from the canonical model of clonal evolution, and better explains observed genomic spatial data. Importantly, the Comet model allows for the clinically relevant scenario of extensive DCIS spread, without being subjected to the selective pressures of subclone competition that promote the emergence of increasingly invasive phenotypes. As such, the normal cell movement inferred during DCIS growth provides a new explanation for the limited risk of progression in DCIS and adds biologic rationale for ongoing clinical efforts to reduce DCIS overtreatment.

Test sensitivity in a prospective cancer screening program: A critique of a common proxy measure.

The true sensitivity of a cancer screening test, defined as the frequency with which the test returns a positive result if the cancer is present, is a key indicator of diagnostic performance. Given the challenges of directly assessing test sensitivity in a prospective screening program, proxy measures for true sensitivity are frequently reported. We call one such proxy empirical sensitivity, as it is given by the observed ratio of screen-detected cancers to the sum of screen-detected and interval cancers. In the setting of the canonical three-state Markov model for progression from preclinical onset to clinical diagnosis, we formulate a mathematical relationship for how empirical sensitivity varies with the screening interval and the mean preclinical sojourn time and identify conditions under which empirical sensitivity exceeds or falls short of true sensitivity. In particular, when the inter-screening interval is short relative to the mean sojourn time, empirical sensitivity tends to exceed true sensitivity, unless true sensitivity is high. The Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) has reported an estimate of 0.87 for the empirical sensitivity of digital mammography. We show that this corresponds to a true sensitivity of 0.82 under a mean sojourn time of 3.6 years estimated based on breast cancer screening trials. However, the BCSC estimate of empirical sensitivity corresponds to even lower true sensitivity under more contemporary, longer estimates of mean sojourn time. Consistently applied nomenclature that distinguishes empirical sensitivity from true sensitivity is needed to ensure that published estimates of sensitivity from prospective screening studies are properly interpreted.

Surveillance Imaging after Primary Diagnosis of Ductal Carcinoma in Situ.

Background Guidelines recommend annual surveillance imaging after diagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Guideline adherence has not been characterized in a contemporary cohort. Purpose To identify uptake and determinants of surveillance imaging in women who underwent treatment for DCIS. Materials and Methods A stratified random sample of women who underwent breast-conserving surgery for primary DCIS between 2008 and 2014 was retrospectively selected from 1330 facilities in the United States. Imaging examinations were recorded from date of diagnosis until first distant recurrence, death, loss to follow-up, or end of study (November 2018). Imaging after treatment was categorized into 10 12-month periods starting 6 months after diagnosis. Primary outcome was per-period receipt of asymptomatic surveillance imaging (mammography, MRI, or US). Secondary outcome was diagnosis of ipsilateral invasive breast cancer. Multivariable logistic regression with repeated measures and generalized estimating equations was used to model receipt of imaging. Rates of diagnosis with ipsilateral invasive breast cancer were compared between women who did and those who did not undergo imaging in the 6-18-month period after diagnosis using inverse probability-weighted Kaplan-Meier estimators. Results A total of 12 559 women (median age, 60 years; IQR, 52-69 years) were evaluated. Uptake of surveillance imaging was 75% in the first period and decreased over time (P < .001). Across the first 5 years after treatment, 52% of women participated in consistent annual surveillance. Surveillance was lower in Black (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 0.80; 95% CI: 0.74, 0.88; P < .001) and Hispanic (OR, 0.82; 95% CI: 0.72, 0.94; P = .004) women than in White women. Women who underwent surveillance in the first period had a higher 6-year rate of diagnosis of invasive cancer (1.6%; 95% CI: 1.3, 1.9) than those who did not (1.1%; 95% CI: 0.7, 1.4; difference: 0.5%; 95% CI: 0.1, 1.0; P = .03). Conclusion Half of women did not consistently adhere to imaging surveillance guidelines across the first 5 years after treatment, with racial disparities in adherence rates. © RSNA, 2023 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Rahbar and Dontchos in this issue.

A web-based personalized decision support tool for patients diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ: development, content evaluation, and usability testing.

PURPOSE: Patients diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) face trade-offs when deciding among different treatments, including surgery, radiation, and endocrine therapy. A less chosen option is active monitoring. While evidence from clinical trials is not yet available, observational studies show comparable results for active monitoring and immediate treatment on cancer outcomes in select subgroups of patients. We developed and tested a web-based decision support tool (DST) to help patients explore current knowledge about DCIS and make an informed choice. METHODS: The DST, an interactive web application, was informed by literature reviews and formative work with patients, breast surgeons, and health communication experts. We conducted iterative interviews to evaluate the DST content among women with and without a history of breast cancer, as well as breast cancer experts. For usability testing, we conducted an online survey among women with and without a history of breast cancer. RESULTS: For content evaluation, 5 women with and 10 women without a history of DCIS were interviewed. The sample included 11 White and 4 non-White women, with a mean age of 64 years. The expert sample consisted of 5 attendings and a physician assistant. The feedback was used to add, clarify, or reorganize information in the DST. For usability testing, 22 participants with a mean age of 61 years were recruited including 15 White and 7 Black women and 6 women with a history of DCIS. The mean usability score was 3.7 out of 5. Most participants (86%) found that the DST provided unbiased information about treatments. To improve usability, we reduced the per-page content and added navigation cues. CONCLUSION: Content and usability evaluation showed that the DST helps patients explore trade-offs of active monitoring and immediate treatment. By adopting a personalized approach, the tool will enable informed decisions aligned with patients' values and expectations.

Estimation of Breast Cancer Overdiagnosis in a U.S. Breast Screening Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Mammography screening can lead to overdiagnosis-that is, screen-detected breast cancer that would not have caused symptoms or signs in the remaining lifetime. There is no consensus about the frequency of breast cancer overdiagnosis. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the rate of breast cancer overdiagnosis in contemporary mammography practice accounting for the detection of nonprogressive cancer. DESIGN: Bayesian inference of the natural history of breast cancer using individual screening and diagnosis records, allowing for nonprogressive preclinical cancer. Combination of fitted natural history model with life-table data to predict the rate of overdiagnosis among screen-detected cancer under biennial screening. SETTING: Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) facilities. PARTICIPANTS: Women aged 50 to 74 years at first mammography screen between 2000 and 2018. MEASUREMENTS: Screening mammograms and screen-detected or interval breast cancer. RESULTS: The cohort included 35 986 women, 82 677 mammograms, and 718 breast cancer diagnoses. Among all preclinical cancer cases, 4.5% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 0.1% to 14.8%) were estimated to be nonprogressive. In a program of biennial screening from age 50 to 74 years, 15.4% (UI, 9.4% to 26.5%) of screen-detected cancer cases were estimated to be overdiagnosed, with 6.1% (UI, 0.2% to 20.1%) due to detecting indolent preclinical cancer and 9.3% (UI, 5.5% to 13.5%) due to detecting progressive preclinical cancer in women who would have died of an unrelated cause before clinical diagnosis. LIMITATIONS: Exclusion of women with first mammography screen outside BCSC. CONCLUSION: On the basis of an authoritative U.S. population data set, the analysis projected that among biennially screened women aged 50 to 74 years, about 1 in 7 cases of screen-detected cancer is overdiagnosed. This information clarifies the risk for breast cancer overdiagnosis in contemporary screening practice and should facilitate shared and informed decision making about mammography screening. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Cancer Institute.

Ductal Carcinoma in Situ: State-of-the-Art Review.

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a nonobligate precursor of invasive cancer, and its detection, diagnosis, and management are controversial. DCIS incidence grew with the expansion of screening mammography programs in the 1980s and 1990s, and DCIS is viewed as a major driver of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. For pathologists, the diagnosis and classification of DCIS is challenging due to undersampling and interobserver variability. Understanding the progression from normal breast tissue to DCIS and, ultimately, to invasive cancer is limited by a paucity of natural history data with multiple proposed evolutionary models of DCIS initiation and progression. Although radiologists are familiar with the classic presentation of DCIS as asymptomatic calcifications at mammography, the expanded pool of modalities, advanced imaging techniques, and image analytics have identified multiple potential biomarkers of histopathologic characteristics and prognosis. Finally, there is growing interest in the nonsurgical management of DCIS, including active surveillance, to reduce overtreatment and provide patients with more personalized management options. However, current biomarkers are not adept at enabling identification of occult invasive disease at biopsy or accurately predicting the risk of progression to invasive disease. Several active surveillance trials are ongoing and are expected to better identify women with low-risk DCIS who may avoid surgery.

A Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate DNA methylation conservation in colorectal tumors.

MOTIVATION: Conservation is broadly used to identify biologically important (epi)genomic regions. In the case of tumor growth, preferential conservation of DNA methylation can be used to identify areas of particular functional importance to the tumor. However, reliable assessment of methylation conservation based on multiple tissue samples per patient requires the decomposition of methylation variation at multiple levels. RESULTS: We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that allows for variance decomposition of methylation on three levels: between-patient normal tissue variation, between-patient tumor-effect variation and within-patient tumor variation. We then defined a model-based conservation score to identify loci of reduced within-tumor methylation variation relative to between-patient variation. We fit the model to multi-sample methylation array data from 21 colorectal cancer (CRC) patients using a Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm (Stan). Sets of genes implicated in CRC tumorigenesis exhibited preferential conservation, demonstrating the model's ability to identify functionally relevant genes based on methylation conservation. A pathway analysis of preferentially conserved genes implicated several CRC relevant pathways and pathways related to neoantigen presentation and immune evasion. Our findings suggest that preferential methylation conservation may be used to identify novel gene targets that are not consistently mutated in CRC. The flexible structure makes the model amenable to the analysis of more complex multi-sample data structures. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The data underlying this article are available in the NCBI GEO Database, under accession code GSE166212. The R analysis code is available at https://github.com/kevin-murgas/DNAmethylation-hierarchicalmodel. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Long-term risk of subsequent ipsilateral lesions after surgery with or without radiotherapy for ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast.

BACKGROUND: Radiotherapy (RT) following breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) reduces ipsilateral breast event rates in clinical trials. This study assessed the impact of DCIS treatment on a 20-year risk of ipsilateral DCIS (iDCIS) and ipsilateral invasive breast cancer (iIBC) in a population-based cohort. METHODS: The cohort comprised all women diagnosed with DCIS in the Netherlands during 1989-2004 with follow-up until 2017. Cumulative incidence of iDCIS and iIBC following BCS and BCS + RT were assessed. Associations of DCIS treatment with iDCIS and iIBC risk were estimated in multivariable Cox models. RESULTS: The 20-year cumulative incidence of any ipsilateral breast event was 30.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 28.9-32.6) after BCS compared to 18.2% (95% CI 16.3-20.3) following BCS + RT. Women treated with BCS compared to BCS + RT had higher risk of developing iDCIS and iIBC within 5 years after DCIS diagnosis (for iDCIS: hazard ratio (HR)age < 50 3.2 (95% CI 1.6-6.6); HRage ≥ 50 3.6 (95% CI 2.6-4.8) and for iIBC: HRage<50 2.1 (95% CI 1.4-3.2); HRage ≥ 50 4.3 (95% CI 3.0-6.0)). After 10 years, the risk of iDCIS and iIBC no longer differed for BCS versus BCS + RT (for iDCIS: HRage < 50 0.7 (95% CI 0.3-1.5); HRage ≥ 50 0.7 (95% CI 0.4-1.3) and for iIBC: HRage < 50 0.6 (95% CI 0.4-0.9); HRage ≥ 50 1.2 (95% CI 0.9-1.6)). CONCLUSION: RT is associated with lower iDCIS and iIBC risk up to 10 years after BCS, but this effect wanes thereafter.

Association of Combined Sero-Positivity to Helicobacter pylori and Streptococcus gallolyticus with Risk of Colorectal Cancer.

Previously, we found that risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) is increased in individuals with serum antibody response to both Helicobacter pylori (HP) Vacuolating Cytotoxin (VacA) toxin or Streptococcus gallolyticus (SGG) pilus protein Gallo2178. In the present analysis, we tested the hypothesis that combined seropositivity to both antigens is a better indicator of CRC risk than seropositivity to single antigens. We used multiplex serologic assays to analyze pre-diagnostic serum for antibody responses from 4063 incident CRC cases and 4063 matched controls from 10 US cohorts. To examine whether combined SGG Gallo2178 and HP VacA sero-status was associated with CRC risk, we used conditional logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Compared to dual sero-negative individuals, there was no increased risk for individuals sero-positive to SGG Gallo2178 only (OR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.66-1.31) or to HP VacA only (OR: 1.08; 95% CI: 0.98-1.19). However, dual sero-positive individuals had a >50% increased odds of developing CRC (OR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.16-2.04), suggesting an interaction between antibody responses to these two pathogens and CRC risk (pinteraction = 0.06). In conclusion, this study suggests that dual sero-positivity to HP VacA and SGG Gallo2178 is an indicator of increased risk of CRC.

Auto-antibodies to p53 and the Subsequent Development of Colorectal Cancer in a U.S. Prospective Cohort Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Auto-antibodies to tumor suppressor p53 are found in a subset of patients with colorectal cancer. A recent prospective study in the United States has reported a significant 1.8-fold increased odds for colorectal cancer development with prediagnostic seropositivity to p53. In this study, we sought to examine this association in a U.S. colorectal cancer cohort consortium to evaluate the potential utility of p53 auto-antibodies as an early biomarker for colorectal cancer. METHODS: Auto-antibodies to p53 were measured in prediagnostic blood samples of 3,702 incident colorectal cancer cases and 3,702 controls, matched by age, race, and sex, from 9 U.S. prospective cohorts. The association of seropositivity to p53 with colorectal cancer risk, overall and by time between blood draw and diagnosis, was determined by conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall, 5% of controls and 7% of cases were seropositive to p53, resulting in a statistically significant 33% increased colorectal cancer risk [odds ratio (OR), 1.33; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.09-1.61]. By follow-up time, the association was only significant with colorectal cancer diagnoses within 4 years after blood draw (OR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.62-3.19), but not thereafter (OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.76-1.24). CONCLUSIONS: In this large consortium of prospective cohorts, we found that prediagnostic seropositivity to tumor suppressor p53 was significantly associated with an over 2-fold increased odds of developing colorectal cancer within 4 years after blood draw. IMPACT: Our finding suggests that p53 seropositivity may not be a useful predictor of long-term colorectal cancer risk; however, it might be considered as a marker to aid in the early diagnosis of colorectal cancer.

Time-varying survival effects for squamous cell carcinomas at oropharyngeal and nonoropharyngeal head and neck sites in the United States, 1973-2015.

BACKGROUND: Anatomical site is strongly associated with head and neck cancer etiology, and etiology and patient sociodemographic characteristics are prognostic factors for survival. It is not known whether the effects of these predictors persist over the postdiagnosis period or are strongest proximal to the time of diagnosis. METHODS: Using survival times and causes of death for 180,434 patients with head and neck cancer in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry (1973-2015), the empirical cumulative incidences of cancer-specific death and other-cause death were calculated with a competing risks framework, and the time-dependent effects (hazard ratios) of anatomical tumor site (oropharynx, oral cavity, or hypopharynx/larynx), age, sex, race, and year of diagnosis on cancer-specific death and other-cause death, stratified by tumor stage, were estimated. RESULTS: All effects were significantly time-varying (P < .001). Patients with nonoropharyngeal cancer had a higher hazard of cancer-specific death but a similar cumulative fraction of deaths because of a higher rate of death from other causes. Cancer-specific survival has not changed for patients with nonoropharyngeal cancer over the past decades but has improved since 2000 for patients with oropharyngeal cancer. The effects of age and sex on cancer survival were strongest proximal to the diagnosis, whereas the effect of race persisted over time. CONCLUSIONS: Recent improvements in survival for patients with oropharyngeal cancer may be due more to an increasing fraction of cancers attributable to human papillomavirus than to increasing treatment effectiveness. The prognostic strength of anatomical site and other predictors changes over the postdiagnosis period. LAY SUMMARY: It is generally assumed that the effects of tumor and personal characteristics on the survival of patients with head and neck cancer are fixed over time, but this study shows that many factors are most important only in the first few years after diagnosis. Also, recent improvements in the survival of patients with head and neck cancer appear to benefit only patients with cancers of the oropharynx. The improvements may be due more to an increasing fraction of cancers caused by human papillomavirus (which generally have better outcomes) than to advances in head and neck cancer treatment overall.

Risk for Upgrade to Malignancy After Breast Core Needle Biopsy Diagnosis of Lobular Neoplasia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PURPOSE: Lobular neoplasia (LN) detected on breast core needle biopsy is frequently managed with surgical excision because of concern for undersampled malignancy. The authors performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the risk for upgrade to malignancy in the setting of imaging-concordant classic LN diagnosed on core biopsy. METHODS: PubMed and Embase were searched for original articles published from 1998 to 2020 that reported rates of upgrade to malignancy for classic LN, including atypical lobular hyperplasia (ALH) and classic lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS). Two reviewers extracted study data and assessed the following quality criteria: exclusion of variant LCIS, exclusion of imaging-discordant lesions, and outcome reporting for ≥70% of lesions. For studies meeting all criteria, pooled risks for upgrade to any malignancy (invasive carcinoma or ductal carcinoma in situ) and invasive malignancy for all LN, ALH, and LCIS were estimated using random-effects models. RESULTS: For 65 full-text articles included in the review, the risk for upgrade to any malignancy ranged from 0% to 45%. Among the 16 studies that met all quality criteria for the meta-analysis, pooled risks for upgrade to any malignancy were 3.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8%-5.2%) for all LN, 2.5% (95% CI, 1.6%-3.9%) for ALH, and 5.8% (95% CI, 2.9%-11.3%) for LCIS. Risks for upgrade to invasive malignancy were 1.3% (95% CI, 0.7%-2.4%) for all LN, 0.4% (95% CI, 0.0%-4.2%) for ALH, and 3.5% (95% CI, 2.0%-5.9%) for LCIS. CONCLUSIONS: The risk for upgrade to malignancy for LN found on breast biopsy is low. Imaging surveillance can likely be offered as an alternative to surgical management for LN, particularly for ALH.

Withdrawal of Life-supporting Treatment in Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

Importance: There are limited data on which factors affect the critical and complex decision to withdraw life-supporting treatment (LST) in patients with severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI). Objective: To determine demographic and clinical factors associated with the decision to withdraw LST in patients with sTBI. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective analysis of inpatient data from more than 825 trauma centers across the US in the American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program database from January 2013 to December 2015 included adult patients with sTBI and documentation of a decision regarding withdrawal of LST (WLST). Data analysis was conducted in September 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Factors associated with WLST in sTBI. Results: A total of 37931 patients (9817 women [25.9%]) were included in the multivariable analysis; 7864 (20.7%) had WLST. Black patients (4806 [13.2%]; odds ratio [OR], 0.66; 95% CI, 0.59-0.72; P < .001) and patients of other race (4798 [13.2%]; OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.76-0.91; P < .001) were less likely than white patients (26 864 [73.7%]) to have WLST. Patients from hospitals in the Midwest (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.04-1.20; P = .002) or Northeast (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.13-1.34; P < .001) were more likely to have WLST than patients from hospitals in the South. Patients with Medicare (OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.43-1.69; P < .001) and self-pay patients (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.25-1.47; P < .001) were more likely to have WLST than patients with private insurance. Older patients and those with lower Glasgow Coma Scale scores, higher Injury Severity Scores, or craniotomy were generally more likely to have WLST. Withdrawal of LST was more likely for patients with functionally dependent health status (OR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.08-1.58; P = .01), hematoma (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.12-1.27; P < .001), dementia (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.08-1.53; P = .004), and disseminated cancer (OR, 2.82; 95% CI, 2.07-3.82; P < .001) than for patients without these conditions. Conclusions and Relevance: Withdrawal of LST is common in sTBI and socioeconomic factors are associated with the decision to withdraw LST. These results highlight the many factors that contribute to decision-making in sTBI and demonstrate that in a complex and variable disease process, variation based on race, payment, and region presents as a potential challenge.

Modeling the natural history of ductal carcinoma in situ based on population data.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) has increased substantially since the introduction of mammography screening. Nevertheless, little is known about the natural history of preclinical DCIS in the absence of biopsy or complete excision. METHODS: Two well-established population models evaluated six possible DCIS natural history submodels. The submodels assumed 30%, 50%, or 80% of breast lesions progress from undetectable DCIS to preclinical screen-detectable DCIS; each model additionally allowed or prohibited DCIS regression. Preclinical screen-detectable DCIS could also progress to clinical DCIS or invasive breast cancer (IBC). Applying US population screening dissemination patterns, the models projected age-specific DCIS and IBC incidence that were compared to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. Models estimated mean sojourn time (MST) in the preclinical screen-detectable DCIS state, overdiagnosis, and the risk of progression from preclinical screen-detectable DCIS. RESULTS: Without biopsy and surgical excision, the majority of DCIS (64-100%) in the preclinical screen-detectable state progressed to IBC in submodels assuming no DCIS regression (36-100% in submodels allowing for DCIS regression). DCIS overdiagnosis differed substantially between models and submodels, 3.1-65.8%. IBC overdiagnosis ranged 1.3-2.4%. Submodels assuming DCIS regression resulted in a higher DCIS overdiagnosis than submodels without DCIS regression. MST for progressive DCIS varied between 0.2 and 2.5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the majority of screen-detectable but unbiopsied preclinical DCIS lesions progress to IBC and that the MST is relatively short. Nevertheless, due to the heterogeneity of DCIS, more research is needed to understand the progression of DCIS by grades and molecular subtypes.

Minimal barriers to invasion during human colorectal tumor growth.

Intra-tumoral heterogeneity (ITH) could represent clonal evolution where subclones with greater fitness confer more malignant phenotypes and invasion constitutes an evolutionary bottleneck. Alternatively, ITH could represent branching evolution with invasion of multiple subclones. The two models respectively predict a hierarchy of subclones arranged by phenotype, or multiple subclones with shared phenotypes. We delineate these modes of invasion by merging ancestral, topographic, and phenotypic information from 12 human colorectal tumors (11 carcinomas, 1 adenoma) obtained through saturation microdissection of 325 small tumor regions. The majority of subclones (29/46, 60%) share superficial and invasive phenotypes. Of 11 carcinomas, 9 show evidence of multiclonal invasion, and invasive and metastatic subclones arise early along the ancestral trees. Early multiclonal invasion in the majority of these tumors indicates the expansion of co-evolving subclones with similar malignant potential in absence of late bottlenecks and suggests that barriers to invasion are minimal during colorectal cancer growth.

Surgical decision making in the setting of severe traumatic brain injury: A survey of neurosurgeons.

BACKGROUND: Surgical decision-making in severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) is complex. Neurosurgeons weigh risks and benefits of interventions that have the potential to both maximize the chance of recovery and prolong suffering. Inaccurate prognostication can lead to over- or under-estimation of outcomes and influence treatment recommendations. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of evidence-based risk estimates on neurosurgeon treatment recommendations and prognostic beliefs in severe TBI. METHODS: In a survey-based randomized experiment, a total of 139 neurosurgeons were presented with two hypothetical patient with severe TBI and subdural hematoma; the intervention group received additional evidence-based risk estimates for each patient. The main outcome was neurosurgeon treatment recommendation of non-surgical management. Secondary outcomes included prediction of functional recovery at six months. RESULTS: In the first patient scenario, 22% of neurosurgeons recommended non-surgical management and provision of evidence-based risk estimates increased the propensity to recommend non-surgical treatment (odds ratio [OR]: 2.81, 95% CI: 1.21-6.98; p = 0.02). Neurosurgeon prognostic beliefs of 6-month functional recovery were variable in both control (median 20%, IQR: 10%-40%) and intervention (30% IQR: 10%-50%) groups and neurosurgeons were less likely to recommend non-surgical management when they believed prognosis was favorable (odds ratio [OR] per percentage point increase in 6-month functional recovery: 0.97, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.95-0.99). The results for the second patient scenario were qualitatively similar. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that the provision of evidence-based risk predictions can influence neurosurgeon treatment recommendations and prognostication, but the effect is modest and there remains large variability in neurosurgeon prognostication.

Relationship Between HCAHPS Scores and Survey Response Rate Is Linked to Hospital Size.

Patient experience is an important dimension of health care quality and is assessed using the standard Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS) survey for inpatients. The HCAHPS scores may vary based on survey response rate and hospital size. The objective of this study was to describe the association between survey response rate and HCAHPS scores and examine whether the relationship varies based on hospital size. Medicare's Hospital Compare publicly reported HCAHPS data were used. Pearson correlation, controlling for number of staffed beds, and linear regression models were used for the analysis. Hospitals were grouped into quartiles based on number of staffed beds to delineate the effect of increasing hospital size on the relationship between survey response rate and HCAHPS scores. A significant association between HCAHPS survey response rate and all examined HCAHPS domain scores was observed. The effect size across HCAHPS domains varied based on hospital size. The relationship between HCAHPS score and survey response rate differed significantly between hospitals in the smallest and largest size quartiles for discharge information, nurse communication, and hospital quietness. While a causal relationship cannot be inferred from this study, the response rate could be a direct and/or indirect driver of HCAHPS scores. Future research should be aimed to further explore the basis of this relationship and to determine how it may inform the interpretation of HCAHPS results.